The New Global Paradigm Shift And How To Invest
Money Tree Investing
Dan Rasmussen returns to talk about how to invest during this global paradigm shift. Rasmussen shares how the post-2008 investment environment has shifted, with international markets now outperforming, volatility spiking, and the dollar weakening. He critiques the AI investment narrative, challenges in AI profitability, the misalignment between AI hype and real-world economic value, and the implications of rising geopolitical and market uncertainty. We discuss... Dan Rasmussen runs the hedge fund Verdad, focusing on microcap value, credit, and market-neutral strategies. His new book,...
info_outline
A Second Big Move In The S&P 500 Will Change How You Think About Stock Investing
Money Tree Investing
There's a second big move in the S&P 500 and it's going to change things! Today we reflect on a historic and volatile week in the markets, highlighting dramatic swings that included 40- to 50-year extremes. We also talk investor psychology, client reactions, and the importance of focusing on long-term planning rather than daily market noise. There's also been a mystery investment that has quietly outperformed this year despite a lack of media attention so it's important to pay attention to all the trends, even the ones that aren't getting mainstream attention. We also share on Warren...
info_outline
What 96% of People Get Wrong About Social Security Planning
Money Tree Investing
Beau Henderson joins us to dive into the often misunderstood world of Social Security planning. Beau highlights how only 4% of people claim their benefits in a way that maximizes lifetime value. We discuss why Social Security is so confusing: its overly complex rules, lack of personalized advice from the SSA, and the financial planning industry's limited focus on optimization due to low compensation incentives. Beau also breaks down a three-step process to make better Social Security decisions. We discuss... Beau Henderson worked in retirement planning for over 25 years, focusing heavily on...
info_outline
A Big Move In The S&P 500 Is Coming
Money Tree Investing
Douglas Heagren | Follow on Facebook: Follow LinkedIn: Follow on Twitter/X: For more information, visit the show notes at
info_outline
The Growth of Global Investing with Ladislas Maurice
Money Tree Investing
Ladislas Maurice joins us today to discuss the benefits of global investing. He shares his experience in emerging markets, and the investing benefits of getting a second citizenships. He shared insights on identifying macro opportunities in various countries, such as Uzbekistan's stock market and Egypt's real estate deals. He emphasized diversification to manage risk and shares the benefits of second citizenships, including access, security, and generational opportunities. Today we discuss... Ladislas Maurice shared his background in law, business, and his expat career with Nestlé...
info_outline
Is Your Social Security Safe From DOGE?
Money Tree Investing
Is your social security safe from DOGE? Today we talk about the big changes coming to the Social Security Administration and how (or if) they impact you! We talk about social securities origins as a safety net, its current insolvency trajectory by the early-to-mid 2030s, and the political challenges of reform. We critique the past government inaction and explores potential solutions. Don't worry, your social security won’t disappear overnight so make rational decisions rather than reacting to media-driven fear. We discuss... Market volatility and the significance of quarter-end...
info_outline
Investment Management in a Volatile Market with Shelby McFaddin
Money Tree Investing
Shelby McFaddin is here to discuss investment management for your portfolio in 2025's volatile stock market. Shelby discusses her time at Motley Fool Asset Management and shares her journey from studying economics and international affairs to working in private and public equity before transitioning to her current role. She shared insights on her investment strategy, highlights the challenges of stock picking in today's market, and emphasizes the importance of quality over chasing trends. She also talks the impact of macroeconomic factors, inflation, and interest rates on investing, and the...
info_outline
Extreme Overvaluation In These Stocks May Shock You
Money Tree Investing
There are some overvaluation in these stocks that may shock you! Today we discuss concerns over the stock market's high valuations, with a historical P/E ratio of around 17 now sitting at roughly 35, indicating extreme overvaluation comparable to the tech bubble. There is a risk of a potential 50% market correction and those who have only experienced rising markets, may be unprepared for downturns. We talk about the importance of hedging, reassessing portfolios, and understanding that economic conditions, stock markets, and politics do not always align. We discuss... Current market...
info_outline
Trading Mindset Revealed
Money Tree Investing
Lia Holmgren, a former psychotherapist turned full-time stocks trader and trading coach, joins the podcast to discuss the trading mindset. As a stock trading coach she shares how her background helps traders manage discipline, risk, and emotional control. Lia details her approach to options trading, preferring long-term leaps on high-quality stocks and selling covered calls for additional income, while stressing the importance of position sizing and risk management. Learn how you can trade more successfully and without emotion as today we discuss... Lia Holmgren shares her background,...
info_outline
Shocking Revelation…Housing Bubble 2.0
Money Tree Investing
We are back in the middle of housing bubble 2.0. Today we cover recent market corrections, investor psychology, and the importance of perspective when managing investments. We talk recent market downturns and real estate. Including the concerns over rising FHA mortgage defaults, government intervention artificially propping up housing prices, and the potential for a significant correction if foreclosure backlogs are released into the market. We discuss... The U.S. stock market recently declined about 10%, marking an official correction and triggering investor anxiety. Many investors...
info_outlineThere have been some extreme overvaluations in this market and we are here to discuss them! Today we take a deep dive on market valuations and the relativity of valuation metrics, making sure you avoid the simplistic comparisons. We also examine market sentiment, noting the unusual dynamic of bearish sentiment despite record highs, and highlighted risks such as market concentration in major tech firms and declining free cash flows. We also talk about whether AI investments are currently yielding meaningful returns and exploring the broader implications for equity markets.
We discuss:
- The stock market valuations and their relative meaning.
- How comparing valuation metrics across different companies and countries requires careful consideration.
- High-growth companies can justify higher price-to-earnings (PE) ratios.
- Misusing metrics or using the wrong comparisons can lead to poor investment decisions.
- Market sentiment is currently bearish despite record-high stock prices.
- Diversification and risk management strategies can help investors navigate uncertainty.
- Some analysts question whether AI investments are currently yielding profitable returns.
- Free cash flow declines across the S&P 500 could impact market stability.
- US market resilience and innovation could still provide competitive investment opportunities despite global shifts.
- Potential policy changes could pressure the US dollar and influence international economic positioning.
- High valuations, market concentration, and potential free cash flow challenges suggest investors should exercise caution.
- Historic S&P 500 returns have been inconsistent, with long-term averages fluctuating significantly over different time periods.
- Omission of key historical data, such as the 1980s in certain charts, highlights potential biases in market analysis.
- Investors should focus on diversification, liquidity, and value-driven strategies to navigate potential market corrections.
- The S&P 500 is currently 72% above its long-term trend line, a historically high level.
- Market history suggests a strong correlation between extreme overvaluation and major pullbacks.
- Many investors make emotional decisions rather than objectively adapting to new data.
- Legendary investors like Warren Buffett hold cash and wait for market corrections to deploy capital.
- Market sentiment is highly bearish, but history shows markets can stay irrational longer than expected.
- Avoiding the worst market days has historically been more impactful than catching the best ones.
For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/extreme-overvaluations-689
Today's Panelists:
Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth
Douglas Heagren | ProCollege Planners
Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast
Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast
Follow on Twitter/X: https://x.com/MTIPodcast