Money Tree Investing

Get new ideas every week from Money Tree Investing Podcast! Come find out why our smart listeners love us. We find the top minds of investing and personal finance to join us on our show. Our guests and panelists talk about investing and personal finance ideas like how to find great investment ideas, building passive income, investing in real estate, financial independence, alternative investments, personal finance, money management, retirement, and finding new investment trends that are not yet mainstream.

A Big Move In The S&P 500 Is Coming 04/09/2025

The Growth of Global Investing with Ladislas Maurice 04/04/2025

The Growth of Global Investing with Ladislas Maurice Ladislas Maurice joins us today to discuss the benefits of global investing. He shares his experience in emerging markets, and the investing benefits of getting a second citizenships. He shared insights on identifying macro opportunities in various countries, such as Uzbekistan's stock market and Egypt's real estate deals. He emphasized diversification to manage risk and shares the benefits of second citizenships, including access, security, and generational opportunities. Today we discuss... Ladislas Maurice shared his background in law, business, and his expat career with Nestlé before transitioning into global investing. He has spent the last eight years traveling full-time, investing in emerging markets, real estate, and exploring residency and citizenship solutions. Ladislas' investment approach involves spotting macro opportunities and then determining how best to play them on the ground. The importance of diversification in emerging markets to mitigate risks and handle portfolio volatility. How international real estate can offer residency and even citizenship benefits in some countries. Panama as a popular residency option, especially for Americans looking to hedge political uncertainty. The cyclical nature of Americans seeking second residencies based on political shifts in the U.S. People should not make rash decisions but instead take a step-by-step approach to investing and relocating abroad. The benefits of second citizenships, including travel freedom, access to opportunities, and protection against geopolitical risks. Countries offering citizenship through investment, including Turkey, Egypt, and Caribbean nations. Birthright citizenship in places like Mexico, Canada, and Brazil can be a strategic option for families. Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Barbara Friedberg | Phil Weiss | Follow on Facebook: Follow LinkedIn: Follow on Twitter/X: For more information, visit the show notes at /episode/index/show/moneytreeinvesting/id/35993965

Is Your Social Security Safe From DOGE? 04/02/2025

Is Your Social Security Safe From DOGE? Is your social security safe from DOGE? Today we talk about the big changes coming to the Social Security Administration and how (or if) they impact you! We talk about social securities origins as a safety net, its current insolvency trajectory by the early-to-mid 2030s, and the political challenges of reform. We critique the past government inaction and explores potential solutions. Don't worry, your social security won’t disappear overnight so make rational decisions rather than reacting to media-driven fear. We discuss... Market volatility and the significance of quarter-end movements. Tax-loss selling at year-end can lead to market bottoms in certain assets. Social Security was originally created as a safety net for those unable to support themselves. A demographic imbalance is stressing Social Security’s financial stability. Without intervention, Social Security is projected to be insolvent by the early-to-mid 2030s. Potential solutions include extending eligibility ages and adjusting benefits. Some proposals suggest cutting administrative costs rather than benefits. Future reforms may involve income-based benefit reductions or delayed eligibility. The likelihood of Social Security disappearing entirely is extremely low. We advise against making rash Social Security decisions based on media fear-mongering. Social Security planning remains a critical topic, with past loopholes removed as the government adapts to prevent system exploitation. Previously, retirees could take Social Security early at 62, repay it later, and reset their benefits, but this strategy has been eliminated. The decision to take Social Security early or delay it depends on individual financial needs and life expectancy. Break-even analysis suggests waiting until full retirement age (67) can be beneficial for those with longer life expectancy. Raising the full retirement age to 70 could extend Social Security solvency by billions of dollars. Adjustments to cost-of-living calculations have historically been used to slow benefit inflation and extend program viability. The current Social Security payroll tax cap of $160,000 could be raised or removed to increase funding. Increasing payroll tax rates slightly could help stabilize the program’s finances. Social Security has one of the lowest administrative costs among government programs, with about 99% of funds going directly to benefits. Historical tax changes under Reagan and Clinton increased Social Security taxation thresholds, and further increases remain possible. Legislative changes to Social Security, including benefit reductions or age increases, can happen quickly with little warning. Market volatility continues to be a major concern, with seasonal patterns and large equity inflows despite broader uncertainty. Investors should be cautious of overpaying for stocks with declining growth while seeking undervalued opportunities. Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Douglas Heagren | Follow on Facebook: Follow LinkedIn: Follow on Twitter/X: For more information, visit the show notes at /episode/index/show/moneytreeinvesting/id/35966495

Investment Management in a Volatile Market with Shelby McFaddin 03/28/2025

Investment Management in a Volatile Market with Shelby McFaddin Shelby McFaddin is here to discuss investment management for your portfolio in 2025's volatile stock market. Shelby discusses her time at Motley Fool Asset Management and shares her journey from studying economics and international affairs to working in private and public equity before transitioning to her current role. She shared insights on her investment strategy, highlights the challenges of stock picking in today's market, and emphasizes the importance of quality over chasing trends. She also talks the impact of macroeconomic factors, inflation, and interest rates on investing, and the housing market’s unexpected resilience. We discuss... Shelby McFaddin shared her background in economics and international affairs, detailing her transition from institutional asset management to stock picking at Motley Fool Asset Management. She focuses on retail and consumer-exposed stocks, driven by her interest in human behavior and its impact on economic trends. Shelby follows a "growth at a reasonable price" (GARP) approach, balancing valuation considerations with growth potential. She highlights the difficulty of value investing in recent decades and how she evaluates opportunities by comparing industry peers rather than relying solely on historical valuations. Dividend-paying and shareholder-friendly companies play a role in her strategy, particularly those with strong cash flows and capital return policies. Inflation is expected to remain elevated and interest rates to stay higher for longer, shaping her investment outlook. The paradox of the housing market, where high interest rates have not lowered home prices but instead frozen supply and affordability. The Fed’s role in the economy may require more government intervention than people expect. AI is being integrated into business operations to streamline processes and increase efficiency. Investors are becoming more discerning about companies delivering on cloud and data center promises. The market punishes companies for missing expectations but not as severely as before. The concentration of stock market gains in a few companies raises concerns about broader growth. Lack of analyst coverage and institutional interest limits small-cap stock visibility. Investors are looking for companies that can efficiently allocate capital expenditures. The lack of movement in small-cap stocks is attributed to systemic rather than company-specific issues. Retail and institutional investors struggle to justify small-cap exposure due to risk and liquidity concerns. Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Barbara Friedberg | Douglas Heagren | Follow on Facebook: Follow LinkedIn: Follow on Twitter/X: For more information, visit the show notes at /episode/index/show/moneytreeinvesting/id/35887580

Extreme Overvaluation In These Stocks May Shock You 03/26/2025

Extreme Overvaluation In These Stocks May Shock You There are some overvaluation in these stocks that may shock you! Today we discuss concerns over the stock market's high valuations, with a historical P/E ratio of around 17 now sitting at roughly 35, indicating extreme overvaluation comparable to the tech bubble. There is a risk of a potential 50% market correction and those who have only experienced rising markets, may be unprepared for downturns. We talk about the importance of hedging, reassessing portfolios, and understanding that economic conditions, stock markets, and politics do not always align. We discuss... Current market valuations, with the P/E ratio at historically high levels near 35. A 50% stock market decline would bring valuations back to historical averages. Many investors are overly reliant on continued market growth. Differentiating between politics, the economy, and the stock market, and avoiding emotional investing. Institutional investors shifting into safer assets like short-term treasuries. Highlighted increasing institutional interest in private credit and alternative investments. Investors with capital are preparing opportunistically rather than out of fear, ensuring flexibility to take advantage of market shifts. The US market has dominated for two decades, but historical trends suggest international markets could rotate into favor. European markets have performed exceptionally well this year, with countries like Germany, Spain, and the UK posting double-digit gains. US-centric investing is common, but diversification into international markets is crucial for risk management. The US market is currently underperforming, with the S&P 500 down approximately 8-10% year-to-date. Emerging markets, including India, Mexico, and parts of Africa, are experiencing significant GDP growth. Investors should be cautious with emerging markets due to political instability and economic volatility. A potential 30-40% market correction in the next two years raises concerns about finding safe investment havens. Bonds may not provide the usual refuge if yields and prices continue their current trends. Stagflation could create an unpredictable economic environment, similar to the confusion of the 1970s. The shift from US to international investing remains an ongoing trend, with Europe currently showing strong performance. People often fail to understand market dynamics, where news-driven price movements often lead to selling once the news is out. The U.S. government has declared Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies as a strategic reserve but says it won't sell them unless necessary. Markets are unpredictable, with current patterns possibly indicating a topping phase, signaling potential future downturns. The job market shows signs of weakening, with decreasing job openings and increasing layoffs, which could indicate economic challenges ahead. Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Douglas Heagren | Follow on Facebook: Follow LinkedIn: Follow on Twitter/X: For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/overvaluation-in-these-stocks-697 /episode/index/show/moneytreeinvesting/id/35823335

Trading Mindset Revealed 03/21/2025

Trading Mindset Revealed Lia Holmgren, a former psychotherapist turned full-time stocks trader and trading coach, joins the podcast to discuss the trading mindset. As a stock trading coach she shares how her background helps traders manage discipline, risk, and emotional control. Lia details her approach to options trading, preferring long-term leaps on high-quality stocks and selling covered calls for additional income, while stressing the importance of position sizing and risk management. Learn how you can trade more successfully and without emotion as today we discuss... Lia Holmgren shares her background, originally from former Czechoslovakia, now a full-time stocks and options trader with a past in psychotherapy. She explains how her upbringing instilled strong financial habits, leading her to explore investing and later trading. Lia works with traders as a performance coach, helping them manage emotions, risk, and discipline. She observes that fewer women enter trading due to natural risk aversion and societal influences but notes a growing interest among women in financial education. One of the biggest issues Lia sees in traders is poor risk management and misunderstanding risk-to-reward ratios. She teaches a simple risk management formula that she believes is life-changing for retail traders. Institutional traders often struggle with ego and emotional challenges, especially during losing years. Lia explains her position sizing approach, typically risking no more than 1% of her account per trade. How traders need to focus less on being right and more on maximizing profits while controlling losses. Lia holds about 20 individual stocks, adjusting the portfolio periodically. Taxes play a role in trading decisions, but delaying exits for tax reasons can backfire. How she prefers selling options over buying, particularly for short-term plays in high-volatility stocks. 2025 is expected to bring market volatility and choppiness, making swing trading more challenging. Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Douglas Heagren | Jeff Hulett | Follow on Facebook: Follow LinkedIn: Follow on Twitter/X: For more information, visit the show notes at /episode/index/show/moneytreeinvesting/id/35797755

Shocking Revelation…Housing Bubble 2.0 03/19/2025

Shocking Revelation…Housing Bubble 2.0 We are back in the middle of housing bubble 2.0. Today we cover recent market corrections, investor psychology, and the importance of perspective when managing investments. We talk recent market downturns and real estate. Including the concerns over rising FHA mortgage defaults, government intervention artificially propping up housing prices, and the potential for a significant correction if foreclosure backlogs are released into the market. We discuss... The U.S. stock market recently declined about 10%, marking an official correction and triggering investor anxiety. Many investors struggle with perspective, reacting emotionally to short-term losses rather than focusing on long-term strategy. U.S. markets have outperformed international markets for the last 20 years, but history suggests this trend may reverse. A 30-40% market correction would simply bring valuations back to historical norms, not signal economic collapse. Financial success means little if it comes at the cost of personal well-being, stress, or strained relationships. Ray Dalio’s phrase "cash is trash" is context-dependent, as cash can be a valuable asset in volatile markets. Holding cash during downturns can significantly improve investment positioning when markets recover. The housing market faces risks due to a high FHA mortgage default rate, currently at 14%, one of the highest in history. Government intervention has kept foreclosures from hitting the market, potentially propping up home prices artificially. An estimated 400,000 foreclosures are backlogged due to government support, posing a risk if policies change. If government mortgage relief ends, housing inventory could rise sharply, leading to potential price corrections. Media outlets prioritize sensationalism over useful financial insights, making independent research critical. The economy remains fragile, and regardless of leadership, structural issues could lead to economic challenges. A correction in housing prices could trigger more foreclosures and increase rental market pressure. Cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum remain volatile but are still significantly up from past lows. Investors must adapt to bear markets, as different strategies are required compared to bull markets. Real estate affordability issues stem from government intervention and prolonged cheap credit policies. If housing supply increases rapidly, sellers could panic, leading to a sharper market decline. Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Douglas Heagren | Follow on Facebook: Follow LinkedIn: Follow on Twitter/X: For more information, visit the show notes at /episode/index/show/moneytreeinvesting/id/35768635

Venture Capital AI Trends 03/14/2025

Venture Capital AI Trends Kate McAndrew shares her experience with venture capital AI and how it is disrupting the industy. She also talks about unconventional journey into venture capital, from studying art history at McGill to running an accelerator in the Southeast before moving to San Francisco and co-founding Baukunst, a $100M fund focused on pre-seed investments. Kate discusses the venture capital cycle, the advantages of investing at the earliest stages, and the high-risk, high-reward nature of her approach. We discuss... Kate McAndrew shares her unconventional journey into venture capital, starting with an art history degree and entrepreneurial ventures. She explains the venture capital cycle, highlighting her focus on the earliest stages of company building. The fund emphasizes technology and design-driven innovation over pure tech solutions. Kate believes strong businesses with real enterprise value naturally find successful exits. She describes how her firm supports founders through recruiting, product strategy, and board participation. Kate argues that despite industry changes, great businesses are always built by great founders. Mega venture capital funds now dominate the market, reshaping valuations and the early-stage funding landscape. Top talent will always attract capital, and fund managers must focus on identifying exceptional companies rather than investing in every deal. The venture capital model prioritizes upside potential over downside protection, unlike private equity. The AI investment landscape is shifting from infrastructure to application-layer innovations. AI is becoming an essential part of all new technology companies, much like mobile technology once did. AI adoption may take longer than expected due to human behavioral factors and trust issues. SEO and traditional search-based marketing may become obsolete as AI-generated responses improve. AI is moving toward full automation of specialized white-collar jobs, raising concerns about economic and societal impacts. Some in Silicon Valley are focused on ensuring AI development aligns with ethical and environmental responsibility. While AI will disrupt many industries, human connection and purpose-driven work will remain valuable. Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Phil Weiss | Follow on Facebook: Follow LinkedIn: Follow on Twitter/X: For more information, visit the show notes at /episode/index/show/moneytreeinvesting/id/35681095

Warren Buffett’s Predictions 03/12/2025

Warren Buffett’s Predictions Will Warren Buffett's Predictions come true? We'll find out as today, the discussion centers around frustrations with the U.S. healthcare system, how longevity and health tie into financial planning and financial planning complexities with all the current economic unpredictability. The U.S. government has also officially designated confiscated Bitcoin as a strategic reserves and we're also still in the midst of a national debt crisis. We also talk government inefficiencies, policy changes, and interest rates. We discuss... Health insurance is frustrating due to high premiums and out-of-pocket costs before coverage kicks in. The system feels broken, requiring significant payments just for the right to pay more before benefits apply. Healthcare plans often don't cover preventive care, like vitamins or quarterly blood tests, which could reduce long-term costs. A comparison to homeowners insurance highlights the absurdity of paying for minor expenses while also paying for coverage. One speaker's insurance costs dropped dramatically when switching from an exchange plan to a corporate-sponsored plan. Life insurance companies conduct more thorough health tests than standard healthcare providers, which seems counterintuitive. Basic, cost-effective tests like fasting glucose are often omitted due to insurance cost-cutting measures. Health metrics are based on shifting averages rather than optimal health standards, normalizing unhealthy ranges. Society adjusts standards to accommodate unhealthy lifestyles rather than incentivizing better health. A personal “year of health” initiative focuses on longevity rather than growth, emphasizing balance, flexibility, and endurance. Longevity experts suggest lifestyle changes that promote long-term well-being, rather than just immediate fitness gains. The healthcare system prioritizes treatment over prevention, even when prevention could save costs in the long run. Financial planning must evolve to account for longer life expectancies, requiring strategies to ensure money lasts. Advances in longevity science could fundamentally change the healthcare system and financial planning. Future health innovations may extend life expectancy, raising questions about economic and social impacts. Bill Perkins' book Die With Zero promotes the idea of optimizing life experiences rather than leaving wealth behind. Planning to die with nothing is difficult due to unpredictable lifespan and financial variables. Financial planning must account for changing tax rates, inflation, market crashes, and policy shifts. Predictions in finance, like oil prices, are often inaccurate due to uncontrollable external factors. Financial plans become obsolete quickly and require constant updates. Guardrails in financial planning help maintain spending levels within a safe range. The U.S. has officially designated confiscated Bitcoin as a strategic reserve. The government is not selling or acquiring more Bitcoin but is holding existing assets. Strategic reserves, including oil, have historically been mismanaged for political purposes. Concerns exist that a Bitcoin reserve could be manipulated for political gain. The U.S. dollar’s status as the world’s reserve currency could be impacted by legitimizing Bitcoin. The Mar-a-Lago Accords propose restructuring U.S. debt by issuing long-term, zero-interest bonds to allies. The U.S. debt is growing at an unsustainable rate, adding a trillion dollars every 90 days. Innovative financial solutions are needed to address mounting national debt. The idea of eliminating daylight savings time is seen as a common-sense policy change. A previous initiative allowed the public to propose policy ideas to the government. The cost of producing pennies has exceeded their face value, raising questions about their necessity. Past shifts from silver to cheaper metals in coinage reflect economic adjustments over time. Lowering interest rates could help mitigate debt burdens more than it would impact the housing market. The U.S. missed opportunities to issue long-term, low-interest debt when rates were near zero. International stocks are outperforming U.S. stocks year-to-date, with emerging market Europe leading at 16.9% gains. The U.S. market is down 2%, marking a rare period of underperformance compared to global markets. Technology stocks are underperforming, with the Nasdaq in correction territory, down over 10%. Healthcare stocks are among the best performers, reflecting a rotation into defensive sectors. Investors are showing a flight to quality, favoring large-cap, dividend-paying companies. Market rotations between value and growth stocks continue as economic concerns persist. Smaller-cap U.S. stocks remain weak, continuing their underperformance. The DAX has quietly posted strong gains of around 10-12% this year, contrasting with the U.S. market’s struggles. Despite current declines, the overall market is still in a relatively stable range, with volatility expected but not severe downturns. Experts anticipate a flat market year with moderate fluctuations rather than extreme moves up or down. Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Phil Weiss | Follow on Facebook: Follow LinkedIn: Follow on Twitter/X: /episode/index/show/moneytreeinvesting/id/35643210

The Future of Copper and Clean Energy with Gord Neal 03/07/2025

The Future of Copper and Clean Energy with Gord Neal Gord Neal, CEO of World Copper, joins us to talk about the future of copper! Gord shares his extensive experience and background in mining commodities. He emphasized copper's crucial role in the transition to clean energy, particularly for electric vehicles, power grids, and renewable energy infrastructure. Gord also talks about the potential impact of the new U.S. administration on mining policies, and how regulatory streamlining could accelerate domestic production and strengthen U.S. energy security. We discuss... Gord Neal, CEO of World Copper, has 25 years of experience in mining, specializing in metals like gold, silver, copper, and uranium. He was a founder of Mag Silver, growing it from a $50M to a $2.5B market cap company, and led New Pacific Metals to a $1.2B valuation. Copper is critical for the transition from fossil fuels to electric energy, as EVs and grid upgrades require significantly more copper than traditional vehicles and infrastructure. The supply of copper is insufficient to meet the demand for 2030 and 2050 energy transition goals, requiring urgent increases in mining output. Nuclear power is essential to meeting global energy needs, as wind and solar alone cannot provide sufficient or reliable power. Copper remains the preferred metal for electrical applications due to its conductivity, durability, and cost-effectiveness compared to alternatives like silver. The global copper deficit is around 100M tons, with new mining projects facing long lead times and high costs. The U.S. needs to accelerate mining permits, particularly in copper-rich states like Arizona, to secure domestic supply. The new Trump administration is expected to push for more mining and energy independence, potentially speeding up federal land permitting. Copper demand is rising due to the shift toward electrification, requiring more wiring for vehicles and energy grids. The U.S. power grid requires significant upgrades to support an electric vehicle transition, necessitating vast amounts of copper. The slow progress in energy grid modernization is due to high costs, bureaucratic red tape, and lack of large-scale energy storage solutions. Political and regulatory challenges impact the speed at which mining projects and energy infrastructure can develop. Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Barbara Friedberg | Phil Weiss | Follow on Facebook: Follow LinkedIn: Follow on Twitter/X: For more information, visit the show notes at /episode/index/show/moneytreeinvesting/id/35562960

Buffett’s Final Letter To Investors… 03/05/2025

Buffett’s Final Letter To Investors… Today we discuss Buffett's final letter as his recent shareholder letter has just released. We talk about Buffett Indicator’s warning of market overvaluation, and Berkshire Hathaway’s rising cash reserves as a sign of potential caution in the markets. We also share on the increasing prevalence of subscription-based business models, frustrations over companies charging both upfront and recurring fees for services and the decline in customer service quality. We discuss... Big tech companies like Google have transitioned from offering free services to charging for storage and other features. Some businesses push ineffective customer service to frustrate users into giving up on disputes. AI-driven customer service is currently ineffective but may be the only long-term solution. The Buffett Indicator suggests the stock market is highly overvalued. Berkshire Hathaway’s cash holdings are at their highest level in decades, signaling Buffett's cautious stance. Buffett has been selling off major holdings like Apple and Bank of America. An imminent crash isn't certain, but current valuations suggest a major correction could happen eventually. The new administration brings uncertainties, disruptions, and a mix of good and bad outcomes. Markets remain expensive, even with a potential 30% drop, which would still not bring valuations to historical lows. Unlike past bubbles in tech (2000) and housing (2008), current market conditions do not show excessive leverage or structural financial weaknesses. The markets may stay flat for several years as a form of correction rather than experiencing a sharp crash. Warren Buffett’s long-term strategy emphasizes holding cash to remain opportunistic rather than out of fear. Market volatility is increasing, particularly in crypto, but recent overall movements remain relatively mild. Investors should recognize that percentage declines translate into significant dollar losses as portfolios grow. Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway has maintained strong financial performance, particularly in insurance, despite market challenges. Buffett's past standards for measuring success (10-year rolling average) are no longer being met, raising questions about future performance. While historically successful, Buffett’s recent decisions and investment strategy face growing hurdles. Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Douglas Heagren | Follow on Facebook: Follow LinkedIn: Follow on Twitter/X: For more information, visit the show notes at /episode/index/show/moneytreeinvesting/id/35527400

Disrupting Taxes with Thomas J. Cryan 02/28/2025

Disrupting Taxes with Thomas J. Cryan Thomas J. Cryan joins us to discuss his new book Disrupting Taxes. He highlights how tariffs historically served as the primary source of U.S. federal revenue until the Civil War, after which income taxes took over. He criticizes the current tax system for its heavy reliance on individual salaries and argued for a more efficient, technology-driven approach. We also touch on the national debt, the need for a balanced budget, and concerns about government spending. Thomas advocates for a system that automatically adjusts tax rates to match expenditures. We discuss... Thomas J. Cryan shares his background as a writer, attorney, and entrepreneur with a focus on law and economics. Cryan discusses his book Disrupting Taxes, inspired by the upcoming expiration of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act in 2025. The conversation shifts to the historical role of tariffs, particularly how they funded the U.S. government for its first 70 years. The current tax system disproportionately burdens individuals, with 90% of federal revenue coming from salaries and income. Cryan critiques the self-declaratory nature of income tax, arguing it leads to inefficiencies and inequities. He proposes a 1% automated banking transaction tax to replace income tax and eliminate the IRS. This system would tax all banking transactions equally, spreading the burden more fairly across the economy. A proposed tax system would implement a flat 2% transaction tax, significantly lower than current income tax rates. Government transactions would also be taxed, eliminating loopholes and ensuring transparency in spending versus tax collection. While the system removes the IRS in its current form, some technological oversight would still be needed for enforcement. Low tax rates could discourage avoidance, as the effort to evade 1% taxation may not be worth the hassle. The U.S. tax system must consider global competition to remain economically viable. Tariffs can be an economic tool but may create global trade imbalances and diplomatic tensions. A technology-driven transaction tax system could increase efficiency and fairness over time. Free market principles suggest that supply and demand will eventually create equilibrium despite policy shifts. State and local governments operate under different tax systems, creating challenges in integrating federal tax changes. Broadening the tax base at all levels could lead to lower rates and a fairer system overall. States with high income taxes may consider adopting transaction-based taxation models. For more information, visit the show notes at Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Barbara Friedberg | Jeff Hulett | Follow on Facebook: Follow LinkedIn: Follow on Twitter/X: /episode/index/show/moneytreeinvesting/id/35465485

Extreme Overvaluations In This Market May Shock You 02/26/2025

Extreme Overvaluations In This Market May Shock You There have been some extreme overvaluations in this market and we are here to discuss them! Today we take a deep dive on market valuations and the relativity of valuation metrics, making sure you avoid the simplistic comparisons. We also examine market sentiment, noting the unusual dynamic of bearish sentiment despite record highs, and highlighted risks such as market concentration in major tech firms and declining free cash flows. We also talk about whether AI investments are currently yielding meaningful returns and exploring the broader implications for equity markets. We discuss: The stock market valuations and their relative meaning. How comparing valuation metrics across different companies and countries requires careful consideration. High-growth companies can justify higher price-to-earnings (PE) ratios. Misusing metrics or using the wrong comparisons can lead to poor investment decisions. Market sentiment is currently bearish despite record-high stock prices. Diversification and risk management strategies can help investors navigate uncertainty. Some analysts question whether AI investments are currently yielding profitable returns. Free cash flow declines across the S&P 500 could impact market stability. US market resilience and innovation could still provide competitive investment opportunities despite global shifts. Potential policy changes could pressure the US dollar and influence international economic positioning. High valuations, market concentration, and potential free cash flow challenges suggest investors should exercise caution. Historic S&P 500 returns have been inconsistent, with long-term averages fluctuating significantly over different time periods. Omission of key historical data, such as the 1980s in certain charts, highlights potential biases in market analysis. Investors should focus on diversification, liquidity, and value-driven strategies to navigate potential market corrections. The S&P 500 is currently 72% above its long-term trend line, a historically high level. Market history suggests a strong correlation between extreme overvaluation and major pullbacks. Many investors make emotional decisions rather than objectively adapting to new data. Legendary investors like Warren Buffett hold cash and wait for market corrections to deploy capital. Market sentiment is highly bearish, but history shows markets can stay irrational longer than expected. Avoiding the worst market days has historically been more impactful than catching the best ones. For more information, visit the show notes at Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Douglas Heagren | Follow on Facebook: Follow LinkedIn: Follow on Twitter/X: /episode/index/show/moneytreeinvesting/id/35429745

Fix and Flip Real Estate with Charles Goodwin 02/21/2025

Fix and Flip Real Estate with Charles Goodwin Charles Goodwin is here to talk about how to broaden your investment portfolio with fix and flip real estate. Charles discusses how he transitioned into real estate investing and acquired around 50 single-family homes. He shares insights on the current real estate market, skepticism about lower rates, and predicts a slow grind towards affordability. Today we discuss... Charles Goodwin shares his background in finance, tech sales, and real estate lending, now serving as VP of Sales overseeing $6.5 billion in loan origination. He started investing in real estate after seeing family success and recognizing its potential as a wealth-building tool. The real estate market remains highly unaffordable, and Charles expects a slow grind with flat prices due to interest rates and supply constraints. The "lock-in effect" has kept inventory tight, as homeowners hesitate to sell and trade low mortgage rates for higher ones. Without a major economic event, he expects home sales to recover slowly over a five-year period rather than a quick turnaround. Mortgage rates remain high, driven by inflation expectations and bond market movements, with no return to 3-4% rates likely. The bond market's recent divergence from Fed policy shows that long-term rates can rise despite Fed cuts, affecting mortgage affordability. Fix-and-flip and rehab opportunities vary by region, with stronger markets in the Midwest and Sunbelt states, while Florida and Texas face challenges. Midwest markets like Cincinnati and Indianapolis offer better affordability, making them attractive for both flipping and rentals. Private lending has gained traction as banks and credit unions have pulled back, fueling continued investor activity. Charles remains cautiously optimistic, emphasizing that real estate cycles take time and affordability is the key factor shaping future trends. For more information, visit the show notes at Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Barbara Friedberg | Phil Weiss | Follow on Facebook: Follow LinkedIn: Follow on Twitter/X: /episode/index/show/moneytreeinvesting/id/35263345

The Mar-a-Lago Accord Revealed... And It Will Send Shockwaves Across the Globe 02/19/2025

The Mar-a-Lago Accord Revealed... And It Will Send Shockwaves Across the Globe The Mar-a-Lago Accord could shake up the world economy. We also chat about resource efficiency, economic trends, geopolitical shifts, and the evolving global financial landscape. The Mar-a-Lago Accord, while still speculative, could reshape global markets, reinforcing the U.S.'s role in international finance and policy. Today we discuss... The high costs and artificial inflation surrounding Valentine's Day purchases. Wastefulness in modern consumerism, including the disposal of returned goods by major retailers. 3D printing as a less wasteful manufacturing process and its potential future applications. Future trends in housing, particularly the shift towards smaller, more efficient homes. How real estate may adapt to generational preferences and economic shifts. A deep dive into the rumored "Mar-a-Lago Accord" and its potential impact on world economics. The Mar-a-Lago Accord includes three key elements: tariffs, a sovereign wealth fund, and a restructured security agreement. Tariffs serve as leverage in international negotiations and a means of raising government revenue. There are concerns about government involvement in private businesses through mechanisms like tax credits in exchange for equity. Countries refusing the debt swap or security commitments could face tariffs as retaliation. The restructuring plan could reduce U.S. debt, offset obligations through government-owned assets, and reshape global financial policies. Forced foreign investment in U.S. debt could strengthen American geopolitical influence. There will inevitably be economic "losers" in the process, though proponents argue everyday Americans would benefit. The Trump administration's approach is praised as innovative and disruptive, challenging the traditional financial system. The U.S. dollar has remained historically strong, posing challenges for exports and contributing to debt issues. The Mar-a-Lago Accord is seen as an attempt at economic reform but carries risks similar to past strategies. Generational shifts in political leadership are suggested, with a call for younger leaders to replace aging politicians. Social Security is highlighted as an outdated system that needs reform, particularly regarding taxation of benefits. The Mar-a-Lago Accord is seen as a potential path to balancing the budget by restructuring debt and reducing interest payments. Market valuations remain high with uncertainty about future economic policies, leading to cautious optimism. Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Douglas Heagren | Follow on Facebook: For more information, visit the show notes at Follow LinkedIn: Follow on Twitter/X: /episode/index/show/moneytreeinvesting/id/35296485

The Best EFT Diversification for Your Investment Strategy 02/14/2025

The Best EFT Diversification for Your Investment Strategy Graham Day joins us to talk about the best EFT diversification you can have in your investment portfolio. Graham shares his experience in the ETF world, from his start at PowerShares in 2008 to co-founding Innovator ETFs in 2017. Innovator introduced defined outcome ETFs, giving investors structured returns with protection against losses that were once only for the rich or through pricey products. They developed buffer ETFs, which limit potential gains but provide set protection against downturns, helping manage risk while keeping investments easy to sell and tax-friendly. The conversation looks at how these ETFs stack up against traditional financial products, their use in managing investment portfolios, and more. Today we discuss... Graham Day shares his background in ETFs, starting at PowerShares and later co-founding Innovator. Innovator aims to make structured investment strategies more accessible through ETFs. Defined outcome ETFs provide equity market exposure with downside protection. Buffer ETFs rebalance annually without creating taxable events. Innovator also offers accelerated ETFs, which provide leveraged upside with downside limits. Simplicity is key—structured products are often complex and difficult for advisors and clients to understand. Innovator ETFs aim to provide strategic, risk-managed solutions that fit into modern portfolios. Many advisors have used buffer ETFs as a bond alternative due to known downside protection. Buffer ETFs performed well compared to both bonds and stocks in recent years. Active management underperforms long-term, with 95% of managers lagging the S&P 500 over a decade. Investors often underperform the market due to poor timing and emotional decision-making. Buffer ETFs help investors stay invested by reducing the fear of market downturns. Some investors allocate 20-25% of portfolios to buffer ETFs for meaningful impact. Market predictions are unreliable, making defined-outcome strategies appealing. Innovator aims to provide certainty in an uncertain investing environment. For more information, visit the show notes at Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Barbara Friedberg | Phil Weiss | Follow on Facebook: Follow LinkedIn: Follow on Twitter/X: /episode/index/show/moneytreeinvesting/id/35274060

The Problem With Post Election Tariffs 02/12/2025

The Problem With Post Election Tariffs There a problem with the post election tariffs! Today we talk about all the breaking political developments following Trump's election, his rapid use of executive orders and his quick use of tariffs. We have cautious optimism about some policies, but there is still always potential risks, with inflation and interest rates. We also challenge the common belief that homeownership is always an investment. Maybe there's something else that works for you. Today we discuss... How Trump's election has led to rapid political changes, with new developments emerging daily. Media on both sides is seen as biased, and people should think critically instead of relying on propaganda. The speaker is cautiously optimistic about Trump's direction, particularly regarding the economy. Some of Trump’s policies, like lowering interest rates and tariffs, could contribute to inflation. A discussion on real estate framed a home as a personal expense rather than an investment, challenging common narratives. High property prices in some areas make renting more financially sound than buying, contrary to common beliefs. Cutting government spending, a key Trump priority, could have significant economic impacts, especially in Washington, D.C. Not investing in D.C. real estate due to potential government downsizing. High housing costs are forcing younger buyers to relocate farther from cities. Changing living patterns, similar to COVID-era shifts, are reshaping communities and work arrangements. Remote work continues to impact commercial real estate as people settle into new locations. Many Americans now struggle to afford a mortgage on a standard 9-to-5 job. Housing affordability varies widely, with some states requiring nearly a full month's wages just for mortgage payments. Burnout is highest in industries involving manual labor and customer service, with healthcare being particularly affected. Economic frustration is driving shifts in political sentiment, as many voters seek disruption to the status quo. Global markets are performing well despite U.S. concerns, with China and Europe showing strong gains. Diversification remains key for investors, as even experienced professionals struggle to consistently pick winners. The top 1% of Americans now control 30.8% of total U.S. net worth, up from 22.8% in 1989. A recent poll shows mixed opinions on tariffs, with 47% supporting them to some degree and 53% opposing or unsure. Cautious optimism is warranted, but assuming another major rally this year could be unrealistic. For more information, visit the show notes at Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Douglas Heagren | Follow on Facebook: Follow LinkedIn: Follow on Twitter/X: /episode/index/show/moneytreeinvesting/id/35237515

The Soul of Wealth with Daniel Crosby 02/07/2025

The Soul of Wealth with Daniel Crosby Today we talk The Soul of Wealth with Daniel Crosby, a behavior finance expert. Daniel shares his transition from clinical psychology to Wall Street due to burnout and his realization that finance is deeply rooted in human behavior. Highlighting the PERMA model from positive psychology, he emphasizes that true well-being requires balancing positive experiences, meaningful work, relationships, purpose, and personal growth—rather than just financial success. Daniel discussed how there has been a shift financial behavior, with younger generations prioritizing values-driven investing over pure profit. Join us as we discuss how to have a more fulfilling financial life! Today we discuss... Daniel Crosby shares his background as a clinical psychologist who transitioned into behavioral finance. Behavioral finance is central to investing, shaping individual and institutional decisions. How people often optimize for material success (positive experiences) at the expense of deeper fulfillment. The PERMA model, a framework for well-being that balances pleasure, engagement, relationships, meaning, and achievement. How Wall Street culture can lead to extreme work habits, burnout, and misplaced priorities. Crosby emphasizes the importance of integrating life balance early, rather than delaying happiness for financial success. The role of money in social change, noting that financial tools have historically driven major civil rights movements. The Montgomery Bus Boycott, sparked by Rosa Parks, demonstrated the power of financial pressure in the civil rights movement. Younger generations increasingly recognize that spending money is a form of voting for the world they want to live in. Gen X is often overlooked politically, partly because they tend to be cynical and disengaged from politics. Financial decisions can be more powerful than political votes, as they influence the economy and corporate behavior daily. Consumer spending decisions significantly impact businesses and shape the economy more directly than stock market trades. Retirees often conflate net worth with self-worth, making it hard to enjoy their savings. The balance between saving for the future and enjoying the present is a major financial conflict in relationships. People tend to judge others based on their spending habits, viewing savers as dull and spenders as reckless. Life offers no guarantees, so financial strategies should include both prudent saving and meaningful spending. Overcoming personal financial biases requires studying market history and maintaining a long-term perspective. For more information, visit the show notes at Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Barbara Friedberg | Phil Weiss | Follow on Facebook: Follow LinkedIn: Follow on Twitter/X: /episode/index/show/moneytreeinvesting/id/35184365

2025 Predictions Continue 02/05/2025

2025 Predictions Continue With all of the new Senate confirmations and executive orders from the past week, the 2025 stock market predictions continue! We explore how higher interest rates make borrowing more expensive and how a strong dollar challenges multinational corporations by making U.S. goods more expensive abroad. Rising oil prices further strain businesses by increasing transportation and production costs. Despite these fundamental factors, the market often disregards traditional economic signals, making price the ultimate determinant of value. Today we discuss... The week's news cycle was dominated by Trump's executive orders and political theater in Senate confirmations. Senators grilling Kennedy on vaccine policies were top recipients of pharmaceutical industry donations. Stanley Druckenmiller outlined three major risks to markets: rising interest rates, a strong dollar, and rising oil prices. Before Trump took office, all three risk factors were in play, but they have since moderated. Higher interest rates increase borrowing costs and lower corporate profits, especially for debt-reliant industries. Tech companies have used low-interest debt for stock buybacks, artificially boosting valuations. A strong U.S. dollar negatively impacts multinational corporations by making exports more expensive. Emerging markets struggle with dollar-denominated debt when the U.S. dollar strengthens. The market doesn’t care about your opinion and can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. Even if you're ultimately right, being wrong for 20 years still means you were wrong in practice. The best investors acknowledge when the market disagrees with them and pivot accordingly. Most people lack familiarity with risk management beyond simply buying bonds. The largest oil reserves aren’t necessarily the most valuable due to quality differences in crude. Corporate cycles alternate between aggressive acquisitions and strategic spinoffs. Investment return data gets distorted over time as underperforming funds disappear. The extravagant corporate culture at Nabisco before and after the buyout. Cultural shifts, like the rise of the iPhone, have happened rapidly in recent years. The housing market is in a challenging state due to high interest rates and low supply. Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Phil Weiss | Follow on Facebook: Follow LinkedIn: Follow on Twitter/X: For more information, visit the show notes at /episode/index/show/moneytreeinvesting/id/35145795

Trend Alert…Unchaining The Block Chain 01/31/2025

Trend Alert…Unchaining The Block Chain Joe Kelly shares how he is unchaining the block chain through his company Unchained. He shares his entrepreneurial journey and insights on Bitcoin and its evolving role in finance. He detailed Unchained's services, which cater to long-term Bitcoin holders by addressing security, inheritance, IRAs, and financial tools like trading and lending. We talk Bitcoin's pivotal developments, including the approval of ETFs, institutional support, and the potential for a U.S. strategic Bitcoin reserve. We also explore mining economics and the broader industry's role in cementing Bitcoin as a foundational digital commodity. Today we discuss... Joe Kelly's entrepreneurial journey from Alaska to Texas, emphasizing his early inspiration from Bitcoin. The importance of Bitcoin's shift to ETFs, noting the role of institutional players like Fidelity and BlackRock in mainstream adoption. The potential of a U.S. strategic Bitcoin reserve signals Bitcoin’s growing recognition as a critical, limited-supply asset. Bitcoin itself is virtually hack-proof, with vulnerabilities usually tied to key management or exchange-level breaches. Mining, while lucrative, is contrasted with direct Bitcoin investment, with the latter often yielding higher returns over time. There is a tradeoff between directly buying Bitcoin, which may influence its price upward, and the challenges of operating a mining business. Michael Saylor's Bitcoin strategy involves leveraging MicroStrategy's treasury to buy Bitcoin, funded through loans, convertible bonds, and equity dilution. The model has parallels to Ponzi-like structures, though it lacks the "rug pull" mechanics since the risks are transparent and tied to Bitcoin's performance. Bitcoin's value proposition hinges on its limited supply of 21 million coins, creating a perception of scarcity and long-term potential. Investors must approach Bitcoin with a balanced mindset, acknowledging both its potential for high returns and the risk of total loss. Bitcoin's volatility often causes steep downturns, which can challenge investors unprepared for long-term holding. Bitcoin's core utility lies in its robustness as a secure, scarce, and decentralized store of value. Emerging use cases from Bitcoin-related technologies include identity verification and fraud prevention, though these are indirect benefits. For more information, visit the show notes at Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Barbara Friedberg | Follow on Facebook: Follow LinkedIn: Follow on Twitter/X: /episode/index/show/moneytreeinvesting/id/35091560

Is Donald Trump Inflationary? 01/29/2025

Is Donald Trump Inflationary? Today we ask a burning question: is Donald Trump inflationary? We dive into the economic implications of Trump's policies, emphasizing their inflationary and deflationary effects. These measures could impact GDP, unemployment, wages, and inflation. We also explore the challenges of rising costs in basic necessities like food, transportation, and utilities, alongside broader concerns about the stock market's bullishness, potential corrections, and the need for sustainable economic growth. We also talk the commodity trends like coffee and the stock market's relationship to the Chinese calendar. We discuss... Trump's proposed policies—tax cuts, tariffs, government spending cuts, and border closures. Tax cuts and tariffs are inflationary, with tariffs passing costs to consumers and raising the price of goods. Border closures may increase food and low-wage labor costs, adding further inflationary pressure. Federal Reserve policy, including recent rate cuts, adds inflationary pressures, but further interest rate hikes may be necessary to control it. Essentials like car insurance, gas, and rent have significantly outpaced reported CPI inflation rates, putting pressure on everyday budgets. Addressing long-term inflation may require sustained economic growth, though achieving this remains a significant challenge. Inflation is impacting both dining out and eating at home, with rising costs creating financial challenges for consumers and restaurants alike. Billionaires prioritize keeping money in appreciating assets, contrasting with the "millionaire next door" approach of debt elimination. Trump coins and similar meme coins illustrate the rise of community-based cryptocurrencies, driven more by social networks than inherent value. Distrust in media, political institutions, and "gatekeepers of truth" underscores a growing reliance on decentralized, market-driven decision-making. Free markets naturally balance supply and demand, with pricing mechanisms reflecting societal values and priorities. Widespread skepticism of information sources reflects a societal shift toward questioning traditional authorities and media. Policies against nuclear energy inadvertently push reliance on coal to fill energy gaps, undermining efforts for a cleaner planet. The high cost of living in many U.S. states underscores the need for affordable energy to alleviate economic pressures on households. Economic inequalities persist, with credit card defaults rising and inflation impacting household spending, particularly in transportation, housing, and food. Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Douglas Heagren | Follow on Facebook: Follow LinkedIn: Follow on Twitter/X: For more information, visit the show notes at /episode/index/show/moneytreeinvesting/id/35045850

All Weather Investing Strategies 01/24/2025

All Weather Investing Strategies Eric Crittenden is here to share the investing strategies for all weather! No matter what the situation is, you should be prepared to invest your money wisely. Eric shares insights on blending equities, bonds, and systematic global macro strategies like trend-following to navigate volatile markets, emphasizing the importance of managing downside risk and incorporating uncorrelated assets. We also reflect on macroeconomic trends, and compare today’s inflationary pressures to the 1970s, expressing skepticism about inflation being fully contained and stressing the value of systematic investing over reliance on media narratives or short-term predictions. Today we discuss... Eric Crittenden, CIO at Standpoint Asset Management, specializes in "all-weather investing," combining hedge fund styles and traditional assets for stable returns in all market conditions. Eric's career began after transitioning from meteorology and public health studies to finance, spurred by a fascination with dynamic systems and risk management. He highlights the importance of managing downside risk and diversification, especially during challenging periods like the stagflation of the 1970s. Crittenden cautions against high-fee hedge fund structures, advocating for in-house, low-cost implementation of trend-following strategies. Gold, short-term fixed income, and systematic macro strategies are recommended for navigating inflationary and stagflationary periods. Rather than relying on narratives, Crittenden employs a systematic, data-focused method to identify global trends using daily updates from international futures exchanges. Current economic conditions are compared to historical eras like the 1970s, the Great Depression, and early 2000s, predicting major challenges in the next 10–15 years. Inflation could resurface due to supply chain disruptions, reindustrialization, or unexpected events rather than monetary policy alone. Decoupling from China and reindustrialization in North America are significant but costly, long-term efforts requiring high capital expenditure. Predicting economic shifts remains challenging as market shocks often come from unforeseen factors. Reindustrialization and reshoring initiatives face efficiency and scale challenges, particularly when transitioning manufacturing from China to smaller nations like Mexico or Vietnam. The U.S. benefits from unparalleled geographic advantages, which foster economic resilience and attract global talent. Technological shifts like AI and crypto are reminiscent of the early internet, with a mix of revolutionary potential and speculative overreach. Governments may challenge crypto through taxation or legal constraints, highlighting the importance of considering geopolitical risks in such investments. Long-term capital stewardship prioritizes sustainable growth, stability, and client trust over speculative gains or first-mover risks. For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/investing-strategies-eric-crittenden-680 /episode/index/show/moneytreeinvesting/id/34984900

The Two Handed Economist Surprise Prediction 01/22/2025

The Two Handed Economist Surprise Prediction The two handed economist has a surprise prediction! Today we cover a wide range of topics such as market movements and our perceptions of the current economic and political climate. We talk our current leadership, particularly criticizing Gavin Newsom's handling of California's challenges, including wildfires and insurance issues. We also talk economic frameworks, including the effects of inflation and deflation on purchasing power. Today we discuss... The growing popularity of pickleball and its origins, along with its appeal to older demographics. Effective leadership styles by referencing Steve Jobs and Joe Rogan as examples of accountability. The systemic issues with inflation, focusing on how purchasing power declines over time due to currency devaluation. Bitcoin, gold, and real estate to illustrate inflationary trends and their impact on perceived asset values. Encouraging viewers to adopt a long-term perspective on financial decisions, taking into account the erosion of currency value. The Federal Reserve's policies aim to reduce volatility, making economic decision-making easier, albeit at the cost of consistent inflation eroding purchasing power. Cash outperforms in market crashes as its purchasing power increases, enabling investors to acquire discounted assets. The current market, based on metrics like the Schiller CAPE ratio, remains historically overvalued, raising caution for future corrections. Even if the market drops by half, it would still be expensive, suggesting a significant correction is required for reasonable valuations. A large flow of money into indexes has contributed to elevated valuations, pushing prices higher even beyond practical expectations. Since a significant amount of money continues to flow into the market each year, it's difficult to predict when a true market collapse might happen. The current market behavior shows that it could rise even further than expected, despite economic uncertainty. Even in extreme scenarios like COVID, when the global economy shut down, the market showed resilience, defying expectations of a larger crash. For more information, visit the show notes at Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Douglas Heagren | Follow on Facebook: Follow LinkedIn: Follow on Twitter/X: /episode/index/show/moneytreeinvesting/id/34948450

Technological Revolution in Manufacturing 01/17/2025

Technological Revolution in Manufacturing Renan Devillieres discusses the currect techological revolution in manufacturing! This revolution is caused by geopolitical shifts and technological advancements, but also brings the challenges of decoupling from China, the pressing need for new factories and energy infrastructure, and the trade-offs of reshoring and more! Renan also shared insights into the role of AI-powered tools, autonomous roots, and emerging materials in shaping modern manufacturing. Today we discuss... Manufacturing is undergoing an unprecedented pace of change due to aging populations, geopolitical tensions, and technological advances. Decoupling from China is driving a reshoring trend in the West, with significant investments in factories and supply chains. Energy infrastructure is a critical bottleneck, with advancements in small nuclear reactors and decentralized grids emerging as key solutions. The shift toward high-utilization products, like self-driving cars and multifunctional smartphones, is reshaping manufacturing priorities. Reshoring and decoupling come with trade-offs, including inflation and societal adjustments, as countries aim for self-sufficiency. AI and manufacturing depend heavily on energy availability, with Silicon Valley now embracing nuclear power as a vital resource. Simulation software enables precise virtual modeling of production processes, reducing reliance on physical tests. Advancements in 3D printing improve resolution and applications, but material limitations prevent it from replacing traditional manufacturing processes. Talent shortages, particularly in mechanical engineering and manufacturing expertise, hinder progress in industrial innovation. Rebuilding localized supply chains, such as Tesla's vertical integration, is essential for reducing reliance on international dependencies. Bridging the gap between R&D and production in pharmaceuticals could drastically reduce costs and timelines. Healthier food systems face challenges from industrialized production, affordability concerns, and systemic quality issues. Consumer demand for healthier food is gradually increasing, signaling potential shifts in market dynamics. The food sector’s transformation may be catalyzed by breakthroughs, scandals, or evolving consumer preferences. For more information, visit the show notes at Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Barbara Friedberg | Follow on Facebook: Follow LinkedIn: Follow on Twitter/X: /episode/index/show/moneytreeinvesting/id/34890170

2025 Inflation Predictions 01/15/2025

2025 Inflation Predictions Ready for inflation predictions? We discuss the places inflation could strike again in 2025. We also talk economic trends, inflationary patterns, and government spending's role in the economy. We also share the policy implications under different administrations, and how they will impact us going forward. Today we discuss... Reflection on broader U.S. economic issues, such as government spending and budgetary challenges. Analysis of past inflation cycles and comparisons to current monetary policy efforts. Speculation on future economic strategies and challenges in addressing discretionary spending. Younger generations often assume they won't receive Social Security benefits due to government mismanagement and financial instability. Reducing government spending could have deflationary effects by removing a significant portion of GDP, potentially causing recessions. Tax cuts are generally inflationary as they increase disposable income, but public dissatisfaction with perceived government waste limits willingness to pay higher taxes. Immigration impacts economic growth by providing cheap labor, but eliminating low-wage workers could lead to higher food costs and inflation. Energy abundance, particularly through nuclear power, is highlighted as a critical factor for economic growth and poverty alleviation. Analysts remain cautious about the economy's direction, advocating for managed investment risk and avoiding "all-in" strategies amidst uncertainty. Nuclear energy is resisted due to public concerns (e.g., NIMBY sentiment) despite its potential as a clean energy source. Rising energy costs directly impact household budgets, inflating expenses for housing, insurance, and transportation. Economic inflation has made $100,000—a salary once considered wealthy—barely sufficient to meet the average American household's annual expenses. Housing affordability challenges persist as property taxes and insurance costs outpace wages, undermining traditional financial planning strategies. Perceptions of climate change vary widely, with debates centering on human versus natural causes and the effectiveness of governmental policies. Conspiracy theories about disasters like wildfires gain traction amid frustrations with government responses and insurance industry practices. A significant portion of U.S. income inequality debates focus on the disparity between being "rich" (high income) versus "wealthy" (high net worth). For more information, visit the show notes at Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Douglas Heagren | Follow on Facebook: Follow LinkedIn: Follow on Twitter/X: /episode/index/show/moneytreeinvesting/id/34860785

The Housing Crisis and Inflation: Barriers to the American Dream 01/10/2025

The Housing Crisis and Inflation: Barriers to the American Dream Economist Bob Frick joins us to talk about how the housing crisis and inflation and how they have become barriers to the American Dream. Bob draws from his unique background as a financial journalist and behavioral economist to address topics such as labor market dynamics, credit card debt, and more. Bob emphasizes the critical shortage of housing and potential economic impacts of policy changes, and their possible inflationary effects. We also talk about the interplay between economic growth, housing supply, and affordability. We discuss... Bob Frick shares his background as a financial journalist and behavioral economist, focusing on consumer issues like housing, cars, loans, and credit cards. Potential inflationary effects of policy changes, including tariffs, deportations, and reductions in legal immigration. Wage inflation, which has risen since the pandemic but struggles to outpace the cumulative effects of high inflation. Credit card debt trends, including rising balances and late payments, with potential stabilization observed in recent months. The lack of affordable starter homes, with rising median homeownership ages and unaffordable prices for younger buyers. How post-COVID low mortgage rates drove demand, compounding pre-existing housing shortages and resulting in skyrocketing home prices. Current housing market sales are only a quarter of pre-COVID levels, reflecting affordability and inventory issues. Low-interest mortgage rates from previous years contribute to a "lock-in" effect, discouraging homeowners from moving. Builders and flippers have reduced activity, with fewer properties meeting profitability thresholds. Inflation and rising mortgage rates exacerbate affordability challenges, especially for lower-income households. Labor market conditions remain strong but are often misinterpreted due to volatile reporting and outdated measurement methods. Economic forecasts are inherently unreliable, influenced by cognitive biases and behavioral tendencies toward belief in prediction. For more information, visit the show notes at Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Barbara Friedberg | Phil Weiss | Follow on Facebook: Follow LinkedIn: Follow on Twitter/X: /episode/index/show/moneytreeinvesting/id/34792565

2025 Stock Market Predictions 01/08/2025

2025 Stock Market Predictions Get ready to invest because today we have your 2025 stock market predictions! Today we talk about how market predictions are typically futile due to the unpredictable nature of financial markets. We explore the trends of 2024, including the standout performers like Nvidia and Bitcoin, but don't assume that means they'll be the winners this year. We also talk active vs. passive management and investing strategies while addressing systemic issues in modern financial markets. Today we discuss... Annual tradition of financial predictions, and their inherent uncertainty. Recap of 2024's top-performing stocks and commodities, as well as the underperformers. Discussion on the pitfalls of market predictions and human tendencies to forecast the future. Critique of over-reliance on index investing and its long-term implications for market efficiency and corporate accountability. Free markets are beneficial but pose dangers to those unprepared, with current markets heavily influenced by Federal Reserve interventions. The stock market is bolstered by government actions and large institutional players, creating artificial market stability. Warren Buffett’s underperformance in recent decades is attributed to deviating from his investment principles and managing too much capital. Global markets show mixed trends: Japan is recovering after a long bear market, while European and value stocks remain stagnant. Crypto adoption is growing, supported by corporate treasury strategies, with Bitcoin gaining popularity despite speculative concerns. Meme coins and other speculative assets occasionally deliver massive returns, but their long-term viability remains uncertain. Cryptocurrency markets showed extreme volatility, with some coins seeing significant gains since the election, while others exhibit questionable valuations. Oil prices have rebounded after a lackluster start to the year, with late-year momentum contributing to recent gains. The S&P 500 has grown modestly by 3% since the election, while gold prices have declined by 3.9%. Risks to global markets in 2025 include tariffs, Nvidia earnings volatility, a reaccelerating U.S. economy, and persistent inflation concerns. Predictions for U.S. recession in 2025 are mixed, with some indicators suggesting low probability despite ongoing uncertainties. The 2025 market landscape will likely feature conflicting bullish and bearish indicators, complicating clear directional forecasts. A recurring theme emerged: there are no inherently good or bad stocks, only good or bad prices depending on market conditions. Disclaimers emphasized that past performance of assets should not be interpreted as predictions for future results. For more information, visit the show notes at Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Douglas Heagren | Follow on Facebook: Follow LinkedIn: Follow on Twitter/X: /episode/index/show/moneytreeinvesting/id/34754620

Supercommunicators 01/03/2025

Supercommunicators We are joined by one of my favorite authors Charles Duhigg to discuss his new book, Supercommunicators! We also jump around to chat about other topics like the role of crypto in politics, broader technology trends and AI, and challenges in private equity. Listen to learn more about how you can be the best communicator through having a strong connection. Today we discuss... Charles Duhigg's new book, Super Communicators, and reflects on his earlier works, The Power of Habit and Smarter Faster Better. Charles' background as a business journalist covering finance and technology for The New Yorker and his previous experiences at The New York Times and Harvard Business School. A recent article about Silicon Valley’s and the crypto industry's political influence. The debate over crypto regulations, contrasting the SEC's push for securities oversight with the industry's argument for recognition as commodities. Long-term changes in business and daily computing due to AI. Private equity and the impact of high interest rates, the overabundance of funds, and the potential for a reckoning in the industry. Historical trends in financial products that offered high yields, such as mortgage-backed securities, SPACs, and crypto lending. Examples of creative financial models like lending gold to jewelers and crypto lending, with an analysis of regulatory challenges and risks. Introduction to the book Supercommunicators, focusing on the skills and principles of effective communication. Explanation of the concept of "matching conversations" to foster trust and understanding in communication. Stories of individuals who overcame communication challenges to become skilled influencers, emphasizing learned rather than innate abilities. Strategies for improving communication through empathy, alignment, and intentional practice. Deep questions allow people to share personal stories, creating a shared sense of understanding and vulnerability. Authentic listening enhances trust and alignment between conversational partners, especially in emotionally charged or conflict discussions. Salespeople and professionals often falter by failing to genuinely engage, focusing instead on their own agenda. Successfully navigating conversations involves identifying their type, aligning with the speaker's mindset, and transitioning between types collaboratively. For more information, visit the show notes at Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Barbara Friedberg | Phil Weiss | Follow on Facebook: Follow LinkedIn: Follow on Twitter/X: /episode/index/show/moneytreeinvesting/id/34674790

Year End 2024 Wrap Up And Good Cheer 01/01/2025

Year End 2024 Wrap Up And Good Cheer 2024 is over so we're going to share a 2024 wrap up! We explore reflections on the holiday season and its implications for financial markets. We share some touching on lighthearted holiday moments. And we also talk some broader topics such as the role of resilience in success and more! Join us as we wrap up 2024. Today we discuss... Low trading volume during the holidays is an opportunity to find potential deals, though the speaker suggests this may not be worth pursuing for most. The annual "best year ever" planning process, focusing on setting clear, intentional goals and narrowing down focus to a single word or goal for the year. A lesson from Jensen Huang, CEO of Nvidia, stressing the importance of pain and suffering in building resilience and character. 2025 could be a rough year, urging reflection and resilience as part of the process of preparing for the challenges ahead. The steady rise in the average age of parents at birth, which correlates with broader economic trends, including rising dual-income households. The challenges of wage growth compared to the rising costs of living, and how it's harder to keep up financially. The divergence between real wages of good-producing workers and major sector productivity. Whether job market softness is causative or correlational, with significant revisions indicating weaker-than-expected job numbers. Housing costs are rising, but 52% of newly constructed apartments in Q2 of 2024 were rented within three months, which is down significantly from 2021. The cost of buying a home is now higher compared to renting in many cases, yet new apartments are not renting out quickly. A rise in homelessness by 18% in the past year, reflecting growing social strain. Market trends, including the disparity between intraday and overnight trading, highlight inefficiencies in market timing. A nod to Bob Farrell's "10 rules for the stock market," emphasizing the cyclical nature of markets and the dominance of sentiment over fundamentals. Emotions often drive investments, and people are drawn to trends like cryptocurrency, regardless of logical fundamentals. Cryptocurrency's rise defies fundamental analysis and is driven by factors beyond traditional market metrics. Successful investing requires understanding both fundamentals and technical analysis, with the latter helping to determine optimal entry points. A trading journal can help track investments, reasons for purchasing, and exit strategies to avoid emotional decision-making. Uncertainty in the market should be managed through thoughtful strategy reviews. For more information, visit the show notes at Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Douglas Heagren | Follow on Facebook: Follow LinkedIn: Follow on Twitter/X: /episode/index/show/moneytreeinvesting/id/34670770

Trailblazers, Heroes and Crooks 12/27/2024

Trailblazers, Heroes and Crooks Steve Foerster, a finance professor and investment historian, to talk his latest book, Trailblazers, Heroes and Crooks: Stories to Make You a Smarter Investor. Steve shared insights into famous financial scandals, such as Bernie Madoff's Ponzi scheme, the Bre-X gold mining fraud, and the Salad Oil Swindle that almost toppled American Express. He highlighted key lessons from these events, including the importance of skepticism, recognizing red flags, and understanding how fraudsters exploit exclusivity and credibility to deceive. These historical stories underscore timeless lessons in vigilance and sound investment practices. Today we discuss... Steve Foerster, professor of finance and investment historian, discussed his background and books, including Trailblazers, Heroes, and Crooks and his work on the biography of Nobel Laureate Bill Sharpe. The psychology of exclusivity and trust in Madoff's scheme, including his reputation as NASDAQ chairman. The Bre-X mining scandal of the 1990s, detailing fraudulent gold sample salting, conspiracy theories surrounding Mike De Guzman, and the challenges of evaluating mining investments. Mark Twain's observation on mining, "a hole in the ground with a liar on top," was used to underscore skepticism in speculative industries. The 1960s Salad Oil Swindle, focusing on Tino De Angelis' fraudulent practices and their near-collapse of American Express. Buffett's significant investment in American Express, based on its strong reputation despite the scandal, resulted in a two-and-a-half-fold return within 18 months. Research and perseverance can lead to great returns, as Wall Street tends to sell indiscriminately during tough times. Warren Buffett's support of management during a crisis helped American Express recover and solidify its reputation. The tension between short-term profits and long-term value was central to Buffett's approach, focusing on long-term growth. Hetty Green, a 19th-century investor, was a pioneering value investor who predicted market trends and became a major player in railroads and mortgages. During the Panic of 1907, Hetty Green predicted the failure of a major trust company and later lent to New York City, preventing bankruptcy. Bobby Bonilla's deferred payment contract with the New York Mets showcased the importance of understanding time value of money and opportunity cost. The story of Cristiano Ronaldo’s snubbing of Coca-Cola at a press conference led to a $4 billion market drop, but it was actually due to the stock’s ex-dividend date, not his actions. The Coca-Cola stock drop was an example of correlation not equaling causation, teaching the importance of distinguishing between the two in investing. Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Phil Weiss | Jeff Hulett | Follow on Facebook: Follow LinkedIn: Follow on Twitter/X: For more information, visit the show notes at /episode/index/show/moneytreeinvesting/id/34558405

Money Tree Investing

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