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Prediction is Hard, Especially about Confidence Levels

Net Assessment

Release Date: 10/02/2025

A Strategy of Denial? show art A Strategy of Denial?

Net Assessment

Chris, Melanie, and Zack discuss public attitudes toward the United States and China, and the Trump administration’s response  -- which mostly seems to deny that they matter. Why does much of the world view the United States less favorably, and China more favorably, than it did just a few years ago? Is this just a temporary decline that can be overcome with a new administration or nicer advisors? Does it even matter to American interests if we aren’t loved? Grievances to the Pentagon for its secrecy and dissembling around casualties in the Iran War, and for thinking that its problems...

info_outline Net Assessment Assesses the 2026 Annual Threat Assessment show art Net Assessment Assesses the 2026 Annual Threat Assessment

Net Assessment

Chris, Zack, and Melanie have a look at the 2026 Annual Threat Assessment. Does the document get the threats, and their prioritiztion, right? How does Trump administration policy align with what the intelligence community determines to be the most critical threats facing the US in the next year? Has the two-decades-old ODNI experiment has run its course? Chris commends Global Affairs Canada and the Stimson Center for jointly honoring the late Stimson Center president, Brian Finlay, with an award in his name, the Brian Finlay Innovation in Threat Reduction Award. Zack has some kind words for...

info_outline Apocalypse Soon? The US and NATO at a Crossroads show art Apocalypse Soon? The US and NATO at a Crossroads

Net Assessment

With Chris galavanting across Europe, Stimson’s Emma Ashford joins Melanie and Zack to debate whether the United States is undermining deterrence in Europe. What does a decreased U.S. conventional commitment mean for the risk of nuclear escalation? And might Vladimir Putin see this as an opportunity to test the alliance by attacking a NATO member, either now or in the future? Emma also commends Scotland's Tartan Army while Melanie criticizes the firing of General Christopher Donahue and Zack laments the dismissal of career officials by the acting Director of National Intelligence.  ...

info_outline Might the United States Lose Access to Foreign Bases? show art Might the United States Lose Access to Foreign Bases?

Net Assessment

In this show, Chris, Melanie, and Zack consider the benefits and costs for U.S. allies and partners who host U.S. bases on their territory. As traditional allies have limited air space and basing access to the United States during the Iran war, has a major fault line in American strategy been publicly exposed? And if allies do limit wartime access in the future, will it stop the United States from fighting both wise and unwise wars? Grievances for Keir Starmer’s government in the UK, especially its approach to national security and energy; for Tulsi Gabbards’ decision to release...

info_outline Mexico's Fight against the Cartels show art Mexico's Fight against the Cartels

Net Assessment

Chris, Zack, and Melanie have a chat about how Mexico is handling the drug cartels, which continue to perpetrate terrible violence and facilitate massive corruption in the country. Can President Claudia Sheinbaum enact an anti-cartel strategy that will reduce the violence? Are institutions in government and the private sector too corrupt for any strategy to succeed? Will Trump, whose patience with Sheinbaum is limited, order military strikes on cartel targets in Mexico? And does she have any leverage to prevent this?   Chris recognizes the life and legacy of Brian Finlay, Stimson’s...

info_outline A Strategy of Consolidation: Playing for Time? show art A Strategy of Consolidation: Playing for Time?

Net Assessment

Chris, Melanie, and Zack debate Wess Mitchell’s proposed U.S. strategy of consolidation. They discuss whether this strategy would finally realign America’s objectives with its resources. They also question the Trump administration’s ability or willingness to execute such an approach. Chris commends Tom Stevenson’s essay on the war in Afghanistan, Melanie questions the lack of American ambassadors worldwide, and Zack expresses frustration with the meager results of the Trump-Xi meeting. Show Links: Robbie Gramer, , Wall Street Journal, May 14, 2026. Chao Deng, , Wall Street Journal,...

info_outline Is the US a Predatory Hegemon? show art Is the US a Predatory Hegemon?

Net Assessment

Do we live in a world governed only by force, one in which the United States’ military and economic power alone will advance U.S. interests? Or are the Trump administration’s efforts to intimidate even U.S. allies and partners bound to generate resistance? And what will be the consequences for Americans if Trump’s predatory behavior fails? Grievances for Charles Lieber, a former Harvard scientist now building China’s i-BRAIN lab, for Beijing’s efforts to block U.S. economic sanctions, and to the U.S. State Department for refusing to recognize foreign service officers killed in the...

info_outline Can the UN Be Reformed? show art Can the UN Be Reformed?

Net Assessment

Chris, Zack, and Melanie have a discussion about whether the United Nations can and should continue in its current form. Has it outlived its original purposes? Does it serve the interests of the United States and the world? Should the United States continue to reduce its presence at the UN, or should it work to make the international body more relevant and effective? What should be the focus of the Secretary-General who takes the helm in 2027?   Chris is appalled at the unserious leadership at the top of the FBI, Zack has a shoutout for Anthropic, which is working with the US government,...

info_outline Implementing a Hellscape Strategy for Taiwan show art Implementing a Hellscape Strategy for Taiwan

Net Assessment

On this show, Melanie, Chris, and Zack consider whether the porcupine strategy that Taiwan is currently implementing is the best plan to deter or defend against China. What could Taiwan be doing better, and how can the United States and other friendly countries help? And have we learned any lessons from the situation in the Strait of Hormuz that are relevant to a Taiwan conflict? Chris laments the administration’s proposed defense budget, and Melanie pans VP JD Vance for going to Hungary to campaign for Victor Orban. Zack gives a shout out to the astronauts and engineers behind Artemis II,...

info_outline Is There an End in Sight for the US War in Iran? show art Is There an End in Sight for the US War in Iran?

Net Assessment

What are the goals in the US war in Iran? Is the situation in the Strait of Hormuz manageable, or is the Iranian threat to shipping a challenge that must be confronted? And can it be resolved at an acceptable cost? Melanie, Chris, and Zack, discuss the latest from the war, with a particular focus on the threat posed to international shipping in the vital waterway. Grievances for Jeremy Corbyn, and for the Trump administration’s decision to remove sanctions on Russian and Iranian oil. Attas to Japanese Prime Minister Takaichii Sanae for navigating her meeting with President Trump, to a...

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More Episodes

Chris, Melanie, and Zack discuss the confidence problem among national security experts. As Jeffrey Friedman shows in a recent Texas National Security Review article, experts are often right but almost always overconfident in their predictions. What does this mean for the national security community? And how can experts address this systemic problem? Chris laments the Pentagon’s in-person gathering of military leaders and Melanie condemns misguided economic policymaking, while Zack commends President Trump’s support for a tougher NATO response to Russian incursions.

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