Net Assessment

Hosts Melanie Marlowe and Christopher Preble debate their way through some of the toughest and most contentious topics related to war, international relations, and strategy. This podcast is brought to you by War on the Rocks.

Why the Trump Administration Will Struggle to Make National Security Policy 04/17/2025

Why the Trump Administration Will Struggle to Make National Security Policy Chris, Melanie, and Zack launch their first Stimson-hosted Net Assessment show with a look at policymaking in the Trump administration. What are the major areas of consensus and disagreement within the administration? Through what lens will policy makers look at challenges such as China? And is a lack of ideological coherence a net positive or negative? Grievances for House GOP leaders playing games with the calendar to avoid a tough vote; for DOGE’s spending cuts that won’t drive the savings they claim, but that are creating havoc; and (again) for the Navy’s troubled Constellation frigate. Attas to Princeton President Christopher L. Eisgruber for standing up for academic freedom; for President Trump’s executive orders on the maritime industrial base and acquisition reform; and to Deputy DNI for Mission Integration William Ruger. And a bonus attagirl to our biggest fan: Melanie’s mom! Links: Tanner Greer, “,” Foreign Policy Research Institute, March 27, 2025. Ross Douthat, “,” New York Times, April 12, 2025. “,” Online Event, Stimson Center, May 1, 2025, 2-3 pm ET Joseph Trevithick, “,” TWZ, April 10, 2025 Alistair MacDonald and Gordon Lubold, “,” Wall Street Journal, March 20, 2025 Emma Ashford, “,” War on the Rocks, March 13, 2020 Kenza Bryan and Demitri Sevastopulo, "," Financial Times, April 12, 2025. Arthur Delaney, Igor Bobic, and Jennifer Bendery, "," HuffPost, April 9, 2025. Erin Banco, Gram Slattery, and Humeyra Pamuk, "," Reuters, April 12, 2025. “,” The Daily, New York Times, April 9, 2925. /episode/index/show/netassessment/id/36206770

One Last Trip Around the World? 04/03/2025

One Last Trip Around the World? Chris, Melanie, and Zack are joined by a special guest for a big announcement. They also lament the demise of the Office of Net Assessment, debate the merits of DOGE, and discuss Secretary Hegseth’s visit to Asia and the strength of those alliances. If you would like to support Net Assessment, please consider donating to this special fund: https://www.stimson.org/support/ /episode/index/show/netassessment/id/35997325

Will Israel Strike Iran? 03/20/2025

Will Israel Strike Iran? Chris, Melanie, and Zack debate whether Israel will strike Iranian nuclear facilities and whether the United States would discourage, encourage, or participate in such an operation. They come to very different conclusions not just about the likelihood of strikes, but also the strategic logic. Chris laments the removal of historical information from U.S. government websites, Melanie has a grievance with Congress for turning again to a continuing resolution to fund government, and Zack criticizes the administration’s efforts to pull Congressionally appropriated funds from several storied American institutions. /episode/index/show/netassessment/id/35778635

The End of the World, Again? 03/06/2025

The End of the World, Again? Chris, Zack, and Melanie have a rather somber discussion about the Trump administration’s efforts to get a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. Why is Trump so insistent on getting an immediate deal? What carrots and sticks, if any, are being given to each side? How will Europe respond to the obviously permanent change in the transatlantic relationship? Chris has some hard words for Congress for its abdication of oversight of arms sales, Zack gives an atta to his brilliant wife, and Melanie is pretty darn proud of the work being done at War on the Rocks. /episode/index/show/netassessment/id/35550570

Is The People's Liberation Army Ready For a Fight Over Taiwan? 02/20/2025

Is The People's Liberation Army Ready For a Fight Over Taiwan? In this show, Melanie, Chris, and Zack discuss Timothy Heath’s recent paper on China’s military capabilities. Heath argues that the People's Liberation Army mostly focused on preserving the Chinese Communist Party’s rule, and that does not necessarily translate to combat effectiveness. But is Heath right? Do we make a mistake in focusing too much on what is apparent from the outside? And if the People's Liberation Army is not ready to fight right now, might it be in the future? Grievances for Lindsey Graham’s wish-casting on Trump and NATO, for the Trump administration blowing up transatlantic relations, and for European leaders being caught off guard. Attas for President Trump’s wisdom on nuclear weapons, to Narendra Modi for strengthening the U.S.-Indian relationship, and to Poland’s Donald Tusk, and France’s Ben Haddad, for taking the hard steps to try to build European self-reliance. /episode/index/show/netassessment/id/35350435

Risky Business: Assessing Risk to U.S. Strategy 02/06/2025

Risky Business: Assessing Risk to U.S. Strategy The Net Assessment team discusses Frank Hoffman’s recent Joint Force Quarterly article about risk. They share concerns about the challenges that U.S. policymakers face in evaluating risk in a structured way. But they also fear that the solutions to these problems will require more fundamental changes to the U.S. bureaucracy than have been contemplated. Chris gives an attaboy to experts heading into the Trump administration, Melanie commends the White House’s interest in missile defense, and Zack gives the State Department kudos for bringing together an early meeting of Quad foreign ministers. All three lament the use of tariffs against U.S. neighbors who already agreed to trade deals during Trump’s first term. /episode/index/show/netassessment/id/35165365

Will Trump Focus on the Western Hemisphere? 01/23/2025

Will Trump Focus on the Western Hemisphere? Chris, Zack, and Melanie got together to talk about the second Trump administration’s agenda in the Western Hemisphere. What interests does the United States have in Latin America? Should the United States be pushing back on China’s activities in the region? If so, what carrots and sticks can the United States offer countries there? And will the administration officials eager to focus on the region be able to sustain that focus, when so many other parts of the world are competing for U.S. attention? Chris gives the chilly weather the cold shoulder, Zack wishes the outgoing and new presidents would enforce the Tik Tok ban as the law requires, and Melanie thanks the departing chair of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence for his service. /episode/index/show/netassessment/id/34960325

Exploring the Implications of Precise Mass 01/09/2025

Exploring the Implications of Precise Mass Back from their holiday break, Chris, Melanie, and Zack discuss Michael Horowitz and Joshua Schwartz’s recent War on the Rocks’ article, which considers whether and how the United States and its allies should incorporate new technologies into their military forces. Is it time for cheap, uncrewed systems to replace larger, manned platforms? What is the optimal mix of high-end, exquisite systems, and low-end, attritable assets? And how should the Pentagon, NATO, and our other allies invest resources to be best situated for potential conflicts? President Joe Biden’s decision to block Nippon Steel’s planned purchase of U.S. Steel receives not one but two grievances. Chris complains about misinformed reactions to the tragic incidents on New Year’s Eve. Hearty attas to President-elect Donald Trump for suggesting that U.S. allies could build U.S. warships, to the National Security Archive at George Washington University, and to Finland for seizing the Russian ship suspected of cutting undersea cables (and for the Finns’ general seriousness on matters of national defense). /episode/index/show/netassessment/id/34775425

What’s Next in Syria? 12/19/2024

What’s Next in Syria? The fall of Bashar al-Assad is transforming not just Syria but also dynamics in the broader Middle East. What implications does this have for U.S. policy in the region? Should U.S. forces withdraw, or is there a continuing role for the American military in Syria? Melanie laments what appears to be the end of the road for Nippon Steel’s efforts to purchase U.S. Steel, Chris questions the panic around aircraft flying over New Jersey, and Zack grieves for South Korea after Yoon Suk Yeol’s disastrous martial law declaration. /episode/index/show/netassessment/id/34503990

Where Do We Go From Here? 12/05/2024

Where Do We Go From Here? The team sat down to talk about the very bleak situation in Ukraine. Is it impossible for Ukraine to overcome its many challenges? Will Trump’s team be able to get Putin to the negotiating table, or is he all-in on victory? What roles might the US and Europe play in a ceasefire? Chris highlights an article on the 1983 Proud Prophet wargame, Zack congratulates Alex Wong, who is heading into the Trump administration, and Melanie criticizes President Biden for pardoning his son. /episode/index/show/netassessment/id/34290125

A New National Security Strategy for the Trump Administration 11/21/2024

A New National Security Strategy for the Trump Administration Chris, Melanie, and Zack discuss how and if the new Trump national security team can help America reset its strategic mindset. What would a successful overmatch strategy look like, in action? How would it differ from the strategy of the last four years? Can the United States mobilize the resources necessary to “ensure lopsided victories over the enemy in combat.”? And what tradeoffs would the United States and its partners need to make? Grievances for Donald Trump, for his plan to use recess appointments, and for his stated desire to rename U.S. military bases after loser Confederates, and to Indonesia’s President Prabowo Subianto for some confusing statements about security in the South China Sea. Attas to President Biden for lifting restrictions on Ukraine’s use of U.S. weapons against targets in Russia, to the EU for freeing up more funds that can be used for defense, and to France for approving a $438 million aid package to help the Philippines enhance their maritime security capabilities, and for training Ukrainian forces. /episode/index/show/netassessment/id/34037512

Can the Next President Change U.S. Foreign Policy? 11/07/2024

Can the Next President Change U.S. Foreign Policy? The United States has a growing disconnect between its foreign policy objectives and the resources it devotes to national security, but inertia has hampered meaningful policy change in recent years. Chris and Melanie discuss a recent article from Christopher Chivvis and Stephen Wertheim that analyzes the challenges associated with overcoming status quo bias. Chris commends Taiwan for purchasing new missiles for defense purposes and Melanie praises Australia for adapting to the new missile age. /episode/index/show/netassessment/id/33831372

American Renewal? 10/24/2024

American Renewal? Chris, Zack, and Melanie sit down for a retrospective episode about the Biden administration’s foreign and defense policy. Using U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s Foreign Affairs article “,” they ask if the United States is better off in terms of national security than it was four years ago. What are the most important accomplishments of the Biden team, and what have been its critical failures? Are our alliance relationships as strong as Blinken wants us to believe? What opportunities were missed, and which were seized? Zack and Melanie are amazed by what Elon Musk has done with SpaceX, and Chris is disappointed that the administration hasn’t shut the door on Ukraine joining NATO. /episode/index/show/netassessment/id/33601817

What Is the U.S. Military Doing in Europe? 10/10/2024

What Is the U.S. Military Doing in Europe? Chris, Melanie, and Zack discuss the American military footprint in Europe. Why does the United States maintain such a large presence there? Are there other ways to accomplish our goals with a smaller physical presence there? And what outcomes would we see if the United States made major troop reductions on the continent? Grievances for Tony Blinken’s tone-deaf article in Foreign Affairs and toward Europe for its continued trade with Russia, while Zack expresses concern for New Zealand’s navy following the loss of one its newer warships. Attapeople to Cato’s Colin Grabow for a sensible proposal to enhance the U.S. shipbuilding industry; to the United States and South Korea for a creative cost-sharing agreement; and to the U.K. government for ceding control of the Chagos Islands to Mauritius. /episode/index/show/netassessment/id/33402497

Is American Deterrence Failing? 09/26/2024

Is American Deterrence Failing? Chris, Melanie, and Zack discuss Carter Malkasian's recent article on "America’s crisis of deterrence.” They debate whether recent policy failures are a breakdown of deterrence theory or U.S. policy, and, if so, what to do about them. Chris advocates for the benefits of nuclear power, Melanie expresses excitement about French spies, and Zack commends semiconductor producers for delivering on the CHIPS Act. /episode/index/show/netassessment/id/33217072

A New Nuclear Age? 09/12/2024

A New Nuclear Age? Chris, Zack, and Melanie sit down to talk about America’s nuclear policy. Are we in a new “nuclear age,” as some Biden administration officials and experts have argued? Does a bleak security environment, where China is rapidly building up its nuclear arsenal and Russia is threatening to use tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine, mean the United States should develop more and different nuclear weapons? Should we be more open to allies and partners going nuclear? Chris is grateful for foundations that support serious policy research, including the Stanton Foundation, which has just made a $45 million gift to MIT’s Security Studies Program, Zack has a grievance for the corrupt government of Venezuela, and Melanie (again) laments the bipartisan opposition to Nippon Steel buying U.S. Steel. /episode/index/show/netassessment/id/33012867

Is Everything a Matter of National Security? 08/29/2024

Is Everything a Matter of National Security? Chris, Melanie, and Zack debate whether national security has been defined too loosely. If too many things fall under the category of national security, do we risk missing the really important ones? How should policymakers decide what is a national security threat--and what isn’t? What are the first-order national security threats facing the United States? And how can government decision-makers impose some discipline on how they think about and manage true national security threats? Grievances for China’s (other) bad behavior in the South China Sea and to the Military Sealift Command for taking 17 support ships out of service due to inadequate staffing. Attapeople for the Biden administration in helping to keep the U.S.-Chinese relationship from going completely off the rails; to the U.S. intelligence community and the U.S. media for their deft handling of Iranian attempted election interference; and to Ely Ratner and others in the Biden administration for negotiating a new compact with India. /episode/index/show/netassessment/id/32790682

Watching the Watchers: Assessing the Defense Strategy Commission 08/15/2024

Watching the Watchers: Assessing the Defense Strategy Commission Melanie, Chris, and Zack debate the findings of the Commission on the National Defense Strategy. They agree that there is a mismatch between U.S. defense strategy and the resources required to execute it, but they disagree on whether and how to adjust the strategy or resources to align the two. Chris laments the saga of the failed Gaza pier, Melanie gives an attaboy to Tyler Cowen, and Zack commends the Ukrainian military for striking a blow against Russia. /episode/index/show/netassessment/id/32585467

Attitude Adjustment: Can the US do better in Africa? 08/01/2024

Attitude Adjustment: Can the US do better in Africa? As Africa is seeing a dramatic rise in violent conflict and elected governments there are falling to coups, Chris, Zack, and Melanie sat down to discuss US policy for the region. What are America’s national security and other critical interests in Africa? What should the United States do to protect those interests? Does it matter that Russia and China are exerting military and economic influence in the region? Is it possible to both safeguard our national security interests there while upholding our professed democratic values? Chris criticizes the failure of Army officials to properly deal with a mentally-ill reservist who killed 18 people at a bowling alley in Maine, Zack condemns the Maduro regime for refusing to publish honest results from Venezuela’s presidential election, and Melanie gives a send-off to friend of the show David Pappalardo, who has completed his term as air and space force attaché at the French Embassy in Washington. /episode/index/show/netassessment/id/32385622

Can Europe be Trump-Proofed? And Should It Be? 07/18/2024

Can Europe be Trump-Proofed? And Should It Be? Melanie, Chris, and Zack discuss the steps that European countries can and should take to prepare for possible U.S. retrenchment from the continent. Can NATO survive a second Trump administration? Or should we be equally concerned about a second Biden administration for transatlantic relations? Grievances for Justin Trudeau and Canada’s meager defense budgets, to those who kept President Biden’s health problems a secret, and to the Pentagon for acquiescing to the Sentinel intercontinental ballistic missile's rising costs. Attas to the Secret Service agents who risked their lives to shield former President Trump, to Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro for his handling of the tragic death of a fellow Pennsylvanian during the assassination attempt on former President Trump, and to those members of Congress starting to ask hard questions about the F-35. /episode/index/show/netassessment/id/32194067

Election Time: France and the United Kingdom Go to the Polls 07/04/2024

Election Time: France and the United Kingdom Go to the Polls Upcoming elections could pull France to the right and the United Kingdom to the left, so the Net Assessment team discusses how this might alter policies in Paris and London. They discuss articles by Ulrike Franke and David Lammy, which sketch out the implications for French and British policy, respectively. In particular, what would it mean for the European Union and NATO if London doubles down on Europe just as France pulls away? Chris questions the value of Congressionally-required unfunded priorities lists, Melanie applauds Kaja Kallas's selection as the European Union’s chief diplomat, and Zack commends progress made to host nuclear-powered submarines in Perth, Australia. /episode/index/show/netassessment/id/32002082

A Live Turkey 06/20/2024

A Live Turkey In the first Net Assessment recorded before a live audience, Chris, Zack, and Melanie discuss the U.S.-Turkish relationship. Has America “lost” Turkey? What are the benefits and limitations of transactional relationships, rather than alliances? How should NATO manage alliance members whose interests and behavior seem to be at odds with alliance purposes? They then take questions from participants in The Fund for American Studies programs. Chris has a grievance for a Pentagon program to discredit the Chinese COVID-19 vaccine, Zack condemns China’s ongoing aggression against the Philippines, and Melanie has an attaboy for Bill Gates’s effort to build smaller and safer nuclear reactors. /episode/index/show/netassessment/id/31825372

Unraveling China’s Plans for the Middle East 06/06/2024

Unraveling China’s Plans for the Middle East Chris, Melanie, and Zack discuss the nature and extent of China’s engagement in the Middle East. Should the United States be concerned about China’s growing involvement in Middle Eastern affairs? If so, what can and should be done about it? Perhaps just as importantly, what should not be done? Grievances for those who dreamed up the Gaza Pier debacle, Sen. Roger Wicker for his supposed “generational” commitment to growing the Pentagon’s budget, and for Canadian parliamentarians who are just a little bit too close to nefarious foreign actors (“semi-witting” accomplices?). Attapeople to the Philippines’s President Bongbong Marcos and to the 12 jurors in Manhattan. /episode/index/show/netassessment/id/31618532

On China: To Win or Not To Win 05/23/2024

On China: To Win or Not To Win Melanie, Chris, and Zack debate Matt Pottinger and Mike Gallagher’s recent article about U.S. strategy toward China. They disagree about the Biden administration’s approach and whether the United States needs a final objective. Melanie questions those expressing condolences for the “Butcher of Tehran,” Chris cautions against a major security deal with Saudi Arabia, and Zack commends Tsai Ing-wen on eight years of steady leadership on cross-Strait issues. /episode/index/show/netassessment/id/31425337

Debating the Future of the Russo-Ukrainian War 05/09/2024

Debating the Future of the Russo-Ukrainian War With American military and economic help on the way to Kyiv, Chris, Zack and Melanie discuss the Russo-Ukrainian war. Will the new American aid package make a difference in the outcome of the conflict? What should be Ukraine’s strategy going forward? What, if anything, can Ukraine and its partners realistically do to get Russia to make meaningful concessions at the negotiating table? Chris has a very proud attaboy for his son who is graduating from college and moving into the real world, Zack questions the effectiveness of a protest in Washington, D.C., and Melanie criticizes Greenpeace for a very bad idea that could have devastating consequences. /episode/index/show/netassessment/id/31209392

Countering Foreign Media Manipulation. Or Not. 04/25/2024

Countering Foreign Media Manipulation. Or Not. Chris, Melanie, and Zack discuss Gavin Wilde’s recent article in the Texas National Security Review on foreign media manipulation. How vulnerable are citizens of democracies to manipulation through social media? Is a more open and less hierarchical media space a national security threat? And what, if anything, should policymakers in democracies do about this issue? Grievances for China blocking popular apps, Marjorie Taylor Green for her shenanigans surrounding the foreign aid vote, and to the F-35, the gift that keeps on giving (to the tune of $2 trillion); Attas for Samuel Charap and Sergey Radchenko for an important article on Ukraine, to Mike Johnson for taking a principled stand on the foreign aid bill, and to the first Australian officers to participate in AUKUS nuclear submarine training. /episode/index/show/netassessment/id/30981733

America's Report Card in Southeast Asia 04/11/2024

America's Report Card in Southeast Asia Chris, Melanie, and Zack debate the 2024 ISEAS - Yusof Ishak Institute State of Southeast Asia Survey, in which regional experts assess power trends and perceptions among the members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. The report yields some warning signs for the United States in the region, suggesting that the Biden team has much more work to do in Southeast Asia. Chris and Melanie worry about American shipbuilding while Zack commends and critiques American and Japanese leaders for announcements connected to Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's visit to Washington. . /episode/index/show/netassessment/id/30778038

The 2024 Annual Threat Assessment 03/28/2024

The 2024 Annual Threat Assessment Chris, Zack, and Melanie sit down to talk about the 2024 Annual Threat Assessment, created by the U.S. intelligence agencies. The report focuses on state actors and transnational issues that could be challenges to the United States in the coming year. What major threats does the United States face in the next year? What are we too worried about? What should we be concerned about that we aren’t paying attention to? With so many challenges, where should our focus be? Zack congratulates contributors to the new BlueBlaze newsletter, Chris commends the Veterans Studies Association, and Melanie wonders why New Jersey Senator Bob Menendez is still in Congress and getting classified briefings. /episode/index/show/netassessment/id/30572203

Competing for Influence in Latin America 03/14/2024

Competing for Influence in Latin America Chris, Melanie and Zack take a close look at the United States’ relationship with countries in Latin America. Why has the United States neglected Latin America in the last several decades? Should the United States government up its game in order to compete for influence with China in its own hemisphere? And, if so, how? And will improving U.S. ties in the region help to alleviate the immigration situation on the southern border? Grievances for Donald Trump's love for TikTok, Americans ignoring Haiti, and Emmanuel Macron and Olaf Scholz who can't get along. Attas to Sen Roger Wicker for noting for months that there won't be enough money for shipbuilding — and being right!; to the members of the House who voted to compel TikTok to divest from Bytedance; and to Sen. Bernie Sanders and five other senators for calling for a new Truman Commission to root out wartime profiteering. /episode/index/show/netassessment/id/30361868

Are the U.S. and Europe Never Ever Getting Back Together? 02/29/2024

Are the U.S. and Europe Never Ever Getting Back Together? Chris, Melanie, and Zack discuss an article on the concept of unbalanced multipolarity by Emma Ashford and Evan Cooper. They debate what might happen if the United States pulls back from its leadership role in Europe and the rest of the world. Would America’s absence lead to global or regional disorder? Would allies step up to take some of the burden off Washington? Or would competing regional blocs emerge? Melanie laments the lack of progress on funding the Compacts of Free Association, Chris criticizes a publication decision by the New York Times, and Zack questions JD Vance’s approach to addressing defense industry shortfalls. /episode/index/show/netassessment/id/30156923

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