Net Assessment
Hosts Melanie Marlowe and Christopher Preble debate their way through some of the toughest and most contentious topics related to war, international relations, and strategy. This podcast is brought to you by War on the Rocks.
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Whither Venezuela?
11/13/2025
Whither Venezuela?
Chris, Melanie, and Zack, convene for a wide-ranging discussion of U.S. current and prospective military operations against the country of Venezuela, and the regime of Nicolas Maduro. Why is the United States sending fighter jets, an aircraft carrier, and other assets to the Caribbean? What does the military buildup say about which voices in the administration are being heard? And is there anything that Maduro can do, any deal he can make with Donald Trump, to avoid regime change, with or without a military conflict? Grievances for universities who cave to Chinese pressure and stop reporting on human rights abuses, to the Department of Defense’s new plan for facilitating foreign arms sales, and to Congress for the pointless government shutdown. Attas to Norway for realizing that Chinese-made electric vehicles are vulnerable to hacking, to Paul Kelly for realizing the John Lennon’s “Imagine” is a terrible song, to the Supreme Court and some members of Congress for appearing to resist Trump’s executive overreach (finally!), and to the nation’s veterans on the occasion of their annual official holiday. Show Links: Missy Ryan, Vivian Salama, Michael Scherer, and Nancy A. Youssef, “” The Atlantic, November 6, 2025 Matthew Kroenig, “,” Foreign Policy, November 7, 2025 Justin Logan and Lawrence Montreuil, “,” Cato at Liberty, October 31, 2025 Alexander B. Downes and Lindsey A. O’Rourke, “,” Foreign Affairs, October 31, 2025 Dan Grazier, “,” Responsible Statecraft, November 6, 2025 Brett Samuels, "," The Hill, November 3, 2025. Augusta Saraiva, "," Bloomberg, November 1, 2025 "," AP, November 5, 2025." Nadeem Badshad, "," The Guardian, November 3, 2025.
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Are Rising Powers Over?
10/30/2025
Are Rising Powers Over?
Chris, Zack, and Melanie get together to talk about Michael Beckley’s new article, “The Stagnant Order and the End of Rising Powers.” What consequences might the decline and greying of populations have for global security? Has the era of transformative discoveries ended? Has the United States become a “rogue superpower, with little sense of obligation beyond itself”? Have corruption, political dysfunction, and waning innovation made it impossible for states to pursue agendas of economic growth and national security? Chris has a strong grievance for Congress which has failed to do its constitutional job and is again putting the country through a government shutdown, Zack praises President Trump for securing a peace deal between Cambodia and Thailand, and Melanie is frustrated by President Trump putting more tariffs on Canada because of an ad featuring President Reagan that he didn’t like. Links Francis J. Gavin, (International Institute of Strategic Studies, 2024). Brian Mann and Sarah McCammon, NPR, October 27, 2025. Julia Gledhill, Stimson Center/Costs of War Project, October 23, 2025. Pooja Salhotra, “,” New York Times, October 26, 2025. Lalee Ibssa and Ivan Periera, “,” ABC News, October 26, 2025. , White House, October 20, 2025. Nicholas Eberstadt, “,” Foreign Affairs, January/February 2025. Greg Iacurci, “,” CNBC, October 17, 2025.
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Can Foreign Aid Be Reformed? Should It Be?
10/16/2025
Can Foreign Aid Be Reformed? Should It Be?
Chris, Melanie, and Zack review Adam Tooze’s recent article on the failure of the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) – and Western-directed aid efforts generally. What should be the goals of foreign aid? Can development assistance, as it has recently been implemented, actually make a meaningful long-term difference in living standards? What might steep cuts in foreign aid mean for poor countries? In an era of great power competition, should we look at development assistance as a way to counter China’s influence? Grievances for the Trump administration’s policies toward China and its new deals with Qatar, and to the US Senate for failing to assert its authority over the war powers. Attas to President Trump for successfully brokering a cease-fire deal between Israel and Hamas, and for negotiating a new deal with Finland to build icebreakers. Links: Adam Tooze, “,” Foreign Policy, September 8, 2025, Evan Cooper and Alessandro Perri, “,” Stimson Center, September 19, 2025 Max Bearak and Lazaro Gamio, “,” Washington Post, October 18, 2016 Rand Paul, “,” Reason, October 8, 2025 Kathryn Watson, “,” CBS News, October 10, 2025 “,” International Affairs Forum, Traverse City, MI, October 23, 2025 Valentina Finckenstein, , LSE Ideas, February 2021. William Easterly, , Penguin Books, 2007. “,” The Economist, March 6, 2025. Noah Robertson, Katie Tarrant, Ellen Nakashima, “,” Washington Post, October 9, 2025. Steve Holland, Anne Kauranen, Jeff Mason, and Gram Slattery, “,” Reuters, October 9, 2025.
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Prediction is Hard, Especially about Confidence Levels
10/02/2025
Prediction is Hard, Especially about Confidence Levels
Chris, Melanie, and Zack discuss the confidence problem among national security experts. As Jeffrey Friedman shows in a recent Texas National Security Review article, experts are often right but almost always overconfident in their predictions. What does this mean for the national security community? And how can experts address this systemic problem? Chris laments the Pentagon’s in-person gathering of military leaders and Melanie condemns misguided economic policymaking, while Zack commends President Trump’s support for a tougher NATO response to Russian incursions. Links: Jeffrey Friedman, “,” Texas National Security Review, Fall 2025. “,” Foreign Affairs. Philip E. Tetlock, Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?, Princeton University Press, 2017. Drew FitzGerald and Lara Seligman, “,” Wall Street Journal, September 29, 2025. Derek Scissors and Zack Cooper, “,” AEIdeas, September 25, 2025. Zack Cooper, “,” IDSS Paper, September 5, 2025. Sam Rosenfeld and Matthew Yglesias, “,” American Prospect, October 23, 2005. Tara Copp, Dan Lamothe, Noah Robertson and Alex Horton, “,” Washington Post, September 28, 2025. Adam Goldstein, “,” FIRE, September 22, 2025. Tom Karako, n, CSIS, September 23, 2025. Elisabeth Buchwald, "," CNN, September 29, 2025.
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Is a Fight with Russia Worth the Risks?
09/18/2025
Is a Fight with Russia Worth the Risks?
Chris, Zack, and Melanie take some time to talk about how the United States, Europe, and Russia are dealing with the Ukraine conflict. Would a Russian win in a war which is costing billions of dollars, killing hundreds of thousands of Russians, and reinforcing Moscow's junior partner status to China only be a pyrrhic victory? Does Russia hold a winning hand because it seems to be willing to take on greater risk than Europe and the United States? Was the passive American reaction to the Russian drone incursion into Poland a sign that the US is done providing security commitments to Europe? Have European governments reached a consensus on whether a sovereign Ukraine is worth a military fight with Russia? Chris is impressed with how Utah Governor Spencer Cox has handled the complex politics following the murder of Charlie Kirk, Zack has an atta for a colleague’s Golden Dome cost calculator, and Melanie is disappointed that the West Point Association of Graduates has cancelled an event at which Tom Hanks was to be awarded the Sylvanus Thayer Award for his longtime dedication to promoting stories of American heroism and innovation and elevating the stories of American veterans. Show Links: Robert Kagan, “,” The Atlantic, September 10, 2025. Franz-Stefan Gady, “,” September 10, 2025. Jeremy Shapiro, “,” The Atlantic, September 10, 2025. Alexandra E. Petri, “,” New York Times, September 7, 2025. Mike Stone, “,” Reuters, September 6, 2025. Charlie Edwards and Nate S, “,” IISS, August 19, 2025. “,” Reuters, September 9, 2025. Joshua Rovner, , January 2025. McKay Coppins, “,” The Atlantic, September 13, 2025. Todd Harrison, “,” American Enterprise Institute, September 12, 2025. , State Department, September 15, 2025.
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How Will the U.S. Deal With a Weaponized World Economy?
09/04/2025
How Will the U.S. Deal With a Weaponized World Economy?
Chris, Melanie, and Zack discuss Henry Farrell and Abraham Newman’s new article “The Weaponized World Economy.” Is the United States, which has been accused of weaponizing the global economy now getting a taste of its own medicine? Should America try to rebuild its economic security state for a world in which adversaries and allies can also employ economic coercion against us? And what are the key risks or challenges that the U.S. government will face if it goes down this path? Grievances for using the National Guard to pick up trash; to President Trump for toying with the idea of running for a third term; and to the Trump administration for botching the relationship with India. Attas to America’s workers on Labor Day – including the millions who came here from outside of the United States; to Marco Rubio and Steve Witkoff for their performance in the last Cabinet meeting; and to a German firm, Luxcara’s, decision to drop Chinese technology in a new windfarm. Show Links: Henry Farrell and Abraham Newman, Foreign Affairs, September/October 2025. Tara Copp, ” The Washington Post, August 27, 2025. Paul Kiernan, Wall Street Journal, August 24, 2025. Marco Rubio, “,” US State Department, May 28, 2025. Greg Ip, “,” Wall Street Journal, August, 11, 2025. Jonah Goldberg, “,” The Dispatch, August 27, 2025. Howard Lutnik on The Ingraham Angle, , August 25, 2025. Petra Sorge, “,” Bloomberg, August 25, 2025. Noah Barkin, , August 27, 2025. Jason Ma, “,’” MSN.com, August 30, 2025. Stimson event on September 17th, . Support Stimson, .
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A Strategy of Prioritization?
08/21/2025
A Strategy of Prioritization?
Chris, Melanie, and Zack discuss Jennifer Lind and Daryl Press’s recent article on strategies of prioritization. They examine the challenges of executing such a strategy and debate whether the Trump administration is actually implementing this approach in practice. Chris commends Emma Ashford for her forthcoming book on multipolarity, Melanie laments attacks on Medal of Honor recipient Florent Groberg, and Zack critiques the Trump administration’s efforts to collect export taxes. Show Links: Jennifer Lind and Daryl G. Press, “,” Foreign Affairs, June 24, 2025 Jasper Ward, “,” Reuters, August 16, 2025 Ilya Somin, “,” The Bulwark, August 15, 2025 Laura Loomer, , August 8, 2025 Florent Groberg, , August 8, 2025 Medal of Honor for Florent Groberg Ione Wells, “,” BBC, August 18, 2025 Emma Ashford, (Yale University Press, 2025) , New York Times Support Stimson,
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What’s the Plan for AI?
08/07/2025
What’s the Plan for AI?
Chris, Zack, and Melanie sit down to chat about the recently-released White House AI Action Plan. Should American AI policy be in pursuit of unchallenged dominance in the field? What kinds of investments and policy choices should the US government be making in order to accelerate AI innovation and deployment? Can the United States become one-stop-shopping for full-stack AI for our friends, in order to counter Chinese supremacy? Do Trump administration policies of the last six months contribute to us achieving our AI goals? Chris is unhappy with the firing of Bureau of Labor Statistics Commission Erika McEntarfer, Zack compliments the CCP on getting the Trump administration to capitulate on its trade agenda, and Melanie calls out Senator Josh Hawley for his proposal to give $600 tariff rebate checks when the Trump tariffs are being advertised as a way to bring down the national debt. Show Links: The White House, “,” July 2025. Editorial Board, “,” Washington Post, July 27, 2025. Raffaele Huang and Liza Lin, “,” Wall Street Journal, July 30, 2025. Mehdi Alhassani and Anthony Bak, “,” Wall Street Journal, May 16, 2025. Aaron MacLean, “,” Engelsberg Ideas, July 9, 2025. Jeffrey Ding, “,” Foreign Affairs, August 19, 2024. “,” July 28, 2025. Nevada Joan Lee and Christopher Preble, “,” Stimson Center, August 1, 2025. Christopher Preble, “,” Stimson Center, July 31, 2025. The Editorial Board, “,” Wall Street Journal, August 3, 2024. Spencer Jakab, “,” Wall Street Journal, August 4, 2025. Power Problems, Blue Blaze, . Support Stimson, .
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Combating Mexican drug cartels: Is there a military solution?
07/24/2025
Combating Mexican drug cartels: Is there a military solution?
In this show, Chris, Melanie, and Zack consider the different military options being considered to combat Mexican drug cartels. Are the cartels that manufacture and distribute drugs that kill Americans, particularly fentanyl, a threat to US national security? If so, is military action, with or without the approval of the Mexican government, a viable solution? And if a military operation isn’t a great idea, are there other ways to stop the tens of thousands of fentanyl and other drug-related deaths that occur in the United States every year? Melanie remembers Andrew Schwartz, a force of nature at CSIS who passed away earlier this month. The crew has shout outs for Ukraine’s drone manufacturers and researchers Jessica Batke and Laura Edelson on “The Locknet,” regarding China’s control of the Internet. Grievances for the Trump administration’s handling of staff cuts at the State Department, and for strong-arming allies regarding a hypothetical conflict with China over Taiwan. Show Links: Dan DePetris and Chris McCallion, “,” Defense Priorities, July 2, 2025 Simon Shuster, “,” Time, July 17, 2025 Caitlin Doombos, Ronny Reyes, “,” New York Post, July 17, 2025 Neal Urwitz, “,” National Security Journal, July 18, 2025 Christopher Preble, Stimson Center, January 25, 2024 Demetri Sevastopulo, “,” Financial Times, July 12, 2025 Jessica Batke and Laura Edelson, “,” ChinaFile, June 30, 2025 Support Net Assessment at
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A New Nuclear Age: The Sum of All Fears?
07/10/2025
A New Nuclear Age: The Sum of All Fears?
Chris, Melanie, and Zack discuss the “nuclear hurricane” sweeping the world. They begin by returning to the question of whether President Trump made the right decision to conduct strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities. Then they shift to discussing Vipin Narang and Pranay Vaddi’s recent article “How to Survive the New Nuclear Age.” Should American leaders adopt a new nuclear strategy or adjust existing nuclear policies and capabilities? Chris endorses the Trump administration’s rethinking of certain types of aid to Ukraine, Melanie applauds General Dan Caine’s handling of a delicate political situation, and Zack commends Congressman Don Bacon for his leadership. Show Links: Vipin Narang and Pranay Vaddi, “,” Foreign Affairs, July/August 2025. James Acton, “,” Council on Foreign Relations, June 2025. Ankit Panda, Vipin Narang, and Pranay Vaddi, “,’” War on the Rocks, March 10, 2025. “,” Global Santa Fe, Wednesday, July 16, 5 pm. Geoff Wilson, Christopher Preble, Lucas Ruiz, “,” Stimson Center, February 19, 2025. Christopher Preble, “,” Review of Nuclear Statecraft: History and Strategy in America’s Atomic Age by Francis J. Gavin, International Studies Review, March 2014. Jack Goldsmith, “,” Executive Functions Substack, July 3, 2025. Gen. Dan Caine, , June 26, 2025. Annie Karni, “,’” New York Times, June 8, 2025. , https://www.stimson.org/support/.
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Trump Hammers Iran. What Comes Next?
06/26/2025
Trump Hammers Iran. What Comes Next?
Chris, Zack, and Melanie get together to discuss the very rapidly moving events in the Middle East following the execution of Operation Midnight Hammer. Why did President Trump decide to move from negotiating with Iran to ordering the strikes on the country’s nuclear facilities? Is this a case of alliance entrapment, or is it an example of an “America First” foreign policy? Is this the beginning of another long slog for America in the Middle East? Even though he has Republican majorities in the House and Senate, President Trump did not seek congressional authorization for the mission. Was he constitutionally required to do so? What are the most likely near- and medium-term outcomes of the American and Israeli strikes? There are grievances for Democrats who didn’t object to the unauthorized exercise of war powers by Presidents Obama and Biden but are suddenly relocating their constitutional scruples with a Republican now at the helm, a video message on nuclear weapons by DNI Tulsi Gabbard that may serve to undermine US extended deterrence, and the increasing violence against government officials and lack of security for them. Attas go to the Institute for Global Affairs for new analysis of several countries’ perceptions of national security threats and priorities, to the United States Armed Forces for the brilliantly executed Operation Midnight Hammer, and to the United States Studies Centre for a fantastic workshop on integrated air and missile defense. Show Links: “,” June 17, 2025 Eloise Cassier, Jonathan Guyer, Lucas Robinson, Ransom Miller, “," Institute for Global Affairs, June 12, 2052 Evan Cooper, Christopher Preble, Alessandro Perri, “,” Stimson Center, June 18, 2025 Alice Hunt Friend, Melanie Marlowe, Christopher Preble, “,” Net Assessment, February 6, 2020 Patrick Kingsley, Adam Rasgon, Ronen Bergman, Natan Odenheimer, Julian E. Barnes, “,” New York Times, June 19, 2025. Jonathan Swan, Maggie Haberman, Mark Mazzetti, Ronen Bergman, “,” New York Times, June 17, 2025. Darya Dolzikova and Matthew Savill, “,” Royal United Services Institute, June 16, 2025. to direct the removal of United States Armed Forces from hostilities against the Islamic Republic of Iran that have not been authorized by Congress, June 2025. Support Net Assessment at Stimson,
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Understanding the Four-Day War between India and Pakistan
06/12/2025
Understanding the Four-Day War between India and Pakistan
Chris, Melanie, and Zack discuss the recent short war between India and Pakistan. Christopher Clary’s first cut of history provides a careful reconstruction of the key events, made all the more difficult by misinformation and disinformation on both sides. But did either side “win”? What role, if any, did Trump administration officials play in negotiating the ceasefire, and what does their involvement portend for the future? How did new technology shape each side’s behavior in that conflict? And are crises between the two countries likely to escalate in severity in the coming years, or can they reach some accommodation? Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth earns a grievance for gutting the Pentagon’s operational testing office, but an atta for his strong performance at the Shangri-La Dialogue defense summit in Singapore. Attas to the Ukrainians for the audacious drone attack deep inside of Russia, to President Trump for repealing the supersonic air travel ban, and to the newly elected South Korean President Lee Jae-Myung. Grievances for the abysmal state of servicemembers’ housing, and to the Trump administration’s crackdown on foreign students wishing to attend U.S. universities. Show Links: Christopher Clary, “Four Days in May: The India-Pakistan Crisis of 2025,” Stimson Center, May 28, 2025 Asfandyar Mir, “India and Pakistan Enter a More Dangerous Era,” New York Times, May 9, 2025 “Five Key Concepts to Understand the India-Pakistan Crisis,” May 19, 2025, Stimson Center Supporting Stimson: Dan Grazier, “Gutting military testing office may be the deadliest move yet,” Responsible Statecraft, June 4, 2025 Choe Sang-Hun, “He Survived a Knife to the Neck. Now He’ll Lead a Divided South Korea,” New York Times, June 3, 2025 Donald Trump, , Truth Social, April 22, 2025. Donald Trump, , Truth Social, May 10, 2025. Executive Order, “,” White House, June 6, 2025. Sudhi, Ranjan Sen, Faseeh Mangi, Dan Strumpf, and Akyla Gardner, “,” Bloomberg, May 11, 2025. Diaa Hadid and Omkar Khandekar, “,’” National Public Radio, May 10, 2025. Timothy A. Walton and Thomas H. Shugart, , Hudson Institute, January 7, 2025. Rene Kladzyk, “,” Project on Government Oversight, May 29, 2025.
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Great Power Competition or Collusion?
05/29/2025
Great Power Competition or Collusion?
Is President Trump’s approach to foreign policy best described as a spheres of influence approach in which the major players are the United States, China, and Russia? Chris, Melanie, and Zack debate Stacie Goddard’s recent article outlining this idea and assess the implications for Europe, Asia, and North America. Chris expresses frustration with a new brand of American corruption, Melanie highlights China’s acquisition of land near Itaewon, and Zack laments the restructuring of the National Security Council. Links: Stacie E. Goddard, “The Rise and Fall of Great-Power Competition,” Foreign Affairs, May/June 2025, . Monica Duffy Toft, “The Return of Spheres of Influence,” Foreign Affairs, March 13, 2025, . Edward Wong, “Trump’s Vision: One World, Three Powers?,” New York Times, May 26, 2025, . Marc Caputo and Alex Isenstadt, “Scoop: Trump, Rubio take aim at National Security Council’s ‘Deep State’,” Axios, May 23, 2025, . Choe Sang-Hun, “North Korea Makes Arrests Over Failed Ship Launch That Angered Kim Jong-un,” New York Times, May 25, 2025, . Rebecca Ballhaus and Angus Berwick, “The Father Pursues Trump’s Diplomatic Deals. The Son Chases Crypto Deals,” Wall Street Journal, May 22, 2025,
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The Paradoxical Power?
05/15/2025
The Paradoxical Power?
An immense and growing national debt, entrenched political polarization, and falling levels of patriotism might lead some to conclude that the position of the United States in the world is weakening compared to other major economies. Michael Beckley looks at other measures, including geography, wealth, alliances, and demographics, and concludes that “This is the paradox of American power: the United States is a divided country, perpetually perceived as in decline, yet it consistently remains the wealthiest and most powerful state in the world—leaving competitors behind.” But, he says, all is not well: an urban-rural divide and a “hollow internationalism” threaten our stability and security. Chris, Zack, and Melanie talk about whether the United States is in decline, how our advantages might create vulnerabilities, and how dysfunction at home affects America’s ability to wield influence abroad. Chris has a shoutout for Gabe Murphy and his work on base realignment, Zack has a remembrance of recently-passed security scholar, practitioner, and mentor Joseph Nye, and Melanie criticizes the Biden administration for not coming clean about the extent of failure of the Gaza Pier. Links: Michael Beckley, “,” Foreign Affairs, January/February 2025. Michael Beckley, “,” Foreign Affairs, April 16, 2025. Christopher Preble, Cato at Liberty, March 3, 2016. Alexander Cornwell, Reuters, May 7, 2025. Supporting Stimson, Gabe Murphy, Taxpayers for Common Sense, May 2025. John Hendel, “,” Politico, September 4, 2024. Alex Horton, “Biden’s Gaza Pier Was More Dangerous and Costly than Previously Known,” , May 7, 2025. John Arnold, , X, May 11, 2025.
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Is Arms Control Dead?
05/02/2025
Is Arms Control Dead?
Chris, Melanie, and Zack consider Rose Gottemoeller’s claim that arms control is not yet dead, but essential. Are there realistic prospects for a new arms control deal? If the Trump administration seriously seeks agreements with Russia and China, what should we demand? And what concessions might we offer? And what should be the objective of any new arms control agreements? Grievances for the Pentagon’s slow-motion train wreck, to worrisome reports of deep cuts at the State Department, and for the Trump administration’s reported minerals deal in Ukraine. Zack offers a heartfelt attaboy to his mentor Richard Armitage, who passed away earlier this month after a lifetime of service. Attas also to Secretary of State Marco Rubio for not cutting State more, and to the Carnegie Endowment for a new report on the foreign policy attitudes of Generation Z. Links: Rose Gottemoeller, “,” Foreign Affairs, April 15, 2025 Christopher S. Chivvis and Lauren Morganbesser, “,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, April 17, 2025 Geoff Wilson, Christohper Preble, and Lucas Ruiz, , Stimson Center, February 19, 2025 Nancy A. Youssef, Alexander Ward, and Vera Bergengruen, “,” Wall Street Journal, April 24, 2025 Supporting Stimson, “Armitage’s Story,” Last Days in Vietnam clip, PBS, .
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Why the Trump Administration Will Struggle to Make National Security Policy
04/17/2025
Why the Trump Administration Will Struggle to Make National Security Policy
Chris, Melanie, and Zack launch their first Stimson-hosted Net Assessment show with a look at policymaking in the Trump administration. What are the major areas of consensus and disagreement within the administration? Through what lens will policy makers look at challenges such as China? And is a lack of ideological coherence a net positive or negative? Grievances for House GOP leaders playing games with the calendar to avoid a tough vote; for DOGE’s spending cuts that won’t drive the savings they claim, but that are creating havoc; and (again) for the Navy’s troubled Constellation frigate. Attas to Princeton President Christopher L. Eisgruber for standing up for academic freedom; for President Trump’s executive orders on the maritime industrial base and acquisition reform; and to Deputy DNI for Mission Integration William Ruger. And a bonus attagirl to our biggest fan: Melanie’s mom! Links: Tanner Greer, “,” Foreign Policy Research Institute, March 27, 2025. Ross Douthat, “,” New York Times, April 12, 2025. “,” Online Event, Stimson Center, May 1, 2025, 2-3 pm ET Joseph Trevithick, “,” TWZ, April 10, 2025 Alistair MacDonald and Gordon Lubold, “,” Wall Street Journal, March 20, 2025 Emma Ashford, “,” War on the Rocks, March 13, 2020 Kenza Bryan and Demitri Sevastopulo, "," Financial Times, April 12, 2025. Arthur Delaney, Igor Bobic, and Jennifer Bendery, "," HuffPost, April 9, 2025. Erin Banco, Gram Slattery, and Humeyra Pamuk, "," Reuters, April 12, 2025. “,” The Daily, New York Times, April 9, 2925.
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One Last Trip Around the World?
04/03/2025
One Last Trip Around the World?
Chris, Melanie, and Zack are joined by a special guest for a big announcement. They also lament the demise of the Office of Net Assessment, debate the merits of DOGE, and discuss Secretary Hegseth’s visit to Asia and the strength of those alliances. If you would like to support Net Assessment, please consider donating to this special fund: https://www.stimson.org/support/
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Will Israel Strike Iran?
03/20/2025
Will Israel Strike Iran?
Chris, Melanie, and Zack debate whether Israel will strike Iranian nuclear facilities and whether the United States would discourage, encourage, or participate in such an operation. They come to very different conclusions not just about the likelihood of strikes, but also the strategic logic. Chris laments the removal of historical information from U.S. government websites, Melanie has a grievance with Congress for turning again to a continuing resolution to fund government, and Zack criticizes the administration’s efforts to pull Congressionally appropriated funds from several storied American institutions.
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The End of the World, Again?
03/06/2025
The End of the World, Again?
Chris, Zack, and Melanie have a rather somber discussion about the Trump administration’s efforts to get a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. Why is Trump so insistent on getting an immediate deal? What carrots and sticks, if any, are being given to each side? How will Europe respond to the obviously permanent change in the transatlantic relationship? Chris has some hard words for Congress for its abdication of oversight of arms sales, Zack gives an atta to his brilliant wife, and Melanie is pretty darn proud of the work being done at War on the Rocks.
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Is The People's Liberation Army Ready For a Fight Over Taiwan?
02/20/2025
Is The People's Liberation Army Ready For a Fight Over Taiwan?
In this show, Melanie, Chris, and Zack discuss Timothy Heath’s recent paper on China’s military capabilities. Heath argues that the People's Liberation Army mostly focused on preserving the Chinese Communist Party’s rule, and that does not necessarily translate to combat effectiveness. But is Heath right? Do we make a mistake in focusing too much on what is apparent from the outside? And if the People's Liberation Army is not ready to fight right now, might it be in the future? Grievances for Lindsey Graham’s wish-casting on Trump and NATO, for the Trump administration blowing up transatlantic relations, and for European leaders being caught off guard. Attas for President Trump’s wisdom on nuclear weapons, to Narendra Modi for strengthening the U.S.-Indian relationship, and to Poland’s Donald Tusk, and France’s Ben Haddad, for taking the hard steps to try to build European self-reliance.
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Risky Business: Assessing Risk to U.S. Strategy
02/06/2025
Risky Business: Assessing Risk to U.S. Strategy
The Net Assessment team discusses Frank Hoffman’s recent Joint Force Quarterly article about risk. They share concerns about the challenges that U.S. policymakers face in evaluating risk in a structured way. But they also fear that the solutions to these problems will require more fundamental changes to the U.S. bureaucracy than have been contemplated. Chris gives an attaboy to experts heading into the Trump administration, Melanie commends the White House’s interest in missile defense, and Zack gives the State Department kudos for bringing together an early meeting of Quad foreign ministers. All three lament the use of tariffs against U.S. neighbors who already agreed to trade deals during Trump’s first term.
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Will Trump Focus on the Western Hemisphere?
01/23/2025
Will Trump Focus on the Western Hemisphere?
Chris, Zack, and Melanie got together to talk about the second Trump administration’s agenda in the Western Hemisphere. What interests does the United States have in Latin America? Should the United States be pushing back on China’s activities in the region? If so, what carrots and sticks can the United States offer countries there? And will the administration officials eager to focus on the region be able to sustain that focus, when so many other parts of the world are competing for U.S. attention? Chris gives the chilly weather the cold shoulder, Zack wishes the outgoing and new presidents would enforce the Tik Tok ban as the law requires, and Melanie thanks the departing chair of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence for his service.
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Exploring the Implications of Precise Mass
01/09/2025
Exploring the Implications of Precise Mass
Back from their holiday break, Chris, Melanie, and Zack discuss Michael Horowitz and Joshua Schwartz’s recent War on the Rocks’ article, which considers whether and how the United States and its allies should incorporate new technologies into their military forces. Is it time for cheap, uncrewed systems to replace larger, manned platforms? What is the optimal mix of high-end, exquisite systems, and low-end, attritable assets? And how should the Pentagon, NATO, and our other allies invest resources to be best situated for potential conflicts? President Joe Biden’s decision to block Nippon Steel’s planned purchase of U.S. Steel receives not one but two grievances. Chris complains about misinformed reactions to the tragic incidents on New Year’s Eve. Hearty attas to President-elect Donald Trump for suggesting that U.S. allies could build U.S. warships, to the National Security Archive at George Washington University, and to Finland for seizing the Russian ship suspected of cutting undersea cables (and for the Finns’ general seriousness on matters of national defense).
/episode/index/show/netassessment/id/34775425
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What’s Next in Syria?
12/19/2024
What’s Next in Syria?
The fall of Bashar al-Assad is transforming not just Syria but also dynamics in the broader Middle East. What implications does this have for U.S. policy in the region? Should U.S. forces withdraw, or is there a continuing role for the American military in Syria? Melanie laments what appears to be the end of the road for Nippon Steel’s efforts to purchase U.S. Steel, Chris questions the panic around aircraft flying over New Jersey, and Zack grieves for South Korea after Yoon Suk Yeol’s disastrous martial law declaration.
/episode/index/show/netassessment/id/34503990
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Where Do We Go From Here?
12/05/2024
Where Do We Go From Here?
The team sat down to talk about the very bleak situation in Ukraine. Is it impossible for Ukraine to overcome its many challenges? Will Trump’s team be able to get Putin to the negotiating table, or is he all-in on victory? What roles might the US and Europe play in a ceasefire? Chris highlights an article on the 1983 Proud Prophet wargame, Zack congratulates Alex Wong, who is heading into the Trump administration, and Melanie criticizes President Biden for pardoning his son.
/episode/index/show/netassessment/id/34290125
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A New National Security Strategy for the Trump Administration
11/21/2024
A New National Security Strategy for the Trump Administration
Chris, Melanie, and Zack discuss how and if the new Trump national security team can help America reset its strategic mindset. What would a successful overmatch strategy look like, in action? How would it differ from the strategy of the last four years? Can the United States mobilize the resources necessary to “ensure lopsided victories over the enemy in combat.”? And what tradeoffs would the United States and its partners need to make? Grievances for Donald Trump, for his plan to use recess appointments, and for his stated desire to rename U.S. military bases after loser Confederates, and to Indonesia’s President Prabowo Subianto for some confusing statements about security in the South China Sea. Attas to President Biden for lifting restrictions on Ukraine’s use of U.S. weapons against targets in Russia, to the EU for freeing up more funds that can be used for defense, and to France for approving a $438 million aid package to help the Philippines enhance their maritime security capabilities, and for training Ukrainian forces.
/episode/index/show/netassessment/id/34037512
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Can the Next President Change U.S. Foreign Policy?
11/07/2024
Can the Next President Change U.S. Foreign Policy?
The United States has a growing disconnect between its foreign policy objectives and the resources it devotes to national security, but inertia has hampered meaningful policy change in recent years. Chris and Melanie discuss a recent article from Christopher Chivvis and Stephen Wertheim that analyzes the challenges associated with overcoming status quo bias. Chris commends Taiwan for purchasing new missiles for defense purposes and Melanie praises Australia for adapting to the new missile age.
/episode/index/show/netassessment/id/33831372
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American Renewal?
10/24/2024
American Renewal?
Chris, Zack, and Melanie sit down for a retrospective episode about the Biden administration’s foreign and defense policy. Using U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s Foreign Affairs article “,” they ask if the United States is better off in terms of national security than it was four years ago. What are the most important accomplishments of the Biden team, and what have been its critical failures? Are our alliance relationships as strong as Blinken wants us to believe? What opportunities were missed, and which were seized? Zack and Melanie are amazed by what Elon Musk has done with SpaceX, and Chris is disappointed that the administration hasn’t shut the door on Ukraine joining NATO.
/episode/index/show/netassessment/id/33601817
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What Is the U.S. Military Doing in Europe?
10/10/2024
What Is the U.S. Military Doing in Europe?
Chris, Melanie, and Zack discuss the American military footprint in Europe. Why does the United States maintain such a large presence there? Are there other ways to accomplish our goals with a smaller physical presence there? And what outcomes would we see if the United States made major troop reductions on the continent? Grievances for Tony Blinken’s tone-deaf article in Foreign Affairs and toward Europe for its continued trade with Russia, while Zack expresses concern for New Zealand’s navy following the loss of one its newer warships. Attapeople to Cato’s Colin Grabow for a sensible proposal to enhance the U.S. shipbuilding industry; to the United States and South Korea for a creative cost-sharing agreement; and to the U.K. government for ceding control of the Chagos Islands to Mauritius.
/episode/index/show/netassessment/id/33402497
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Is American Deterrence Failing?
09/26/2024
Is American Deterrence Failing?
Chris, Melanie, and Zack discuss Carter Malkasian's recent article on "America’s crisis of deterrence.” They debate whether recent policy failures are a breakdown of deterrence theory or U.S. policy, and, if so, what to do about them. Chris advocates for the benefits of nuclear power, Melanie expresses excitement about French spies, and Zack commends semiconductor producers for delivering on the CHIPS Act.
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