Net Assessment
Hosts Melanie Marlowe, Christopher Preble, and Zack Cooper, debate their way through some of the toughest and most contentious topics related to strategy, international relations, and the use of force. This podcast is brought to you by the Stimson Center and produced by University FM.
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Will U.S. Allies Hedge? Should They?
03/12/2026
Will U.S. Allies Hedge? Should They?
Chris, Zack, and Melanie have a discussion about how America’s allies and partners, after decades of relying on the US for security, are derisking from what they view as an increasingly unpredictable and unfriendly power. How much of their hedging is about President Trump, and how much is due to the growing clout of middle powers, world events, or other factors? What should our allies be doing to constructively protect themselves in terms of their economic and national security? And what do the reactions of world leaders to the conflict in Iran tell us about how they view their relationships with the United States? Chris has a grievance for people, especially those with inside information, betting on war, Zack congratulates Congress for exercising its oversight responsibilities, and Melanie wonders what the purpose of the UN even is anymore. Show Links: James M. Lindsay, “”, Council on Foreign Relations, February 18, 2026. Shayan Sardarizadeh, . Emmanuel Macron, , March 4, 2026. “,” The Economist, March 1, 2026. Henry J. Gomez, “,” NBC News, March 3, 2026. Chris Cook, Oliver Hawkins, Eade Hemingway and Stephanie Stacey, “,” Financial Times, March 3, 2026
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A Broadside Against Battleships
02/26/2026
A Broadside Against Battleships
Chris, Melanie, and Zack debate the wisdom of President Trump’s proposal for a Golden Fleet of new American “battleships.” They question the strategic logic, timelines, cost estimates, and political dynamics behind the proposal. Chris commends USA Hockey for its gold medal performance at the Olympics while Melanie questions Eileen Gu’s comments there and Zack expresses appreciation for the Supreme Court’s tariff decision. Show Links: Eli Rosenberg, “,” NBC Connecticut, February 19, 2026. Christopher A. Preble and Celia Clark, “T,” 2016. Sam Mercoliagno, , February 22, 2026. Ben Jensen, “,” CSIS, January 9, 2026. , US Navy, February 9, 2026. Carline Downey, “,” National Review, February 21, 2026. Sean Gregory, “‘,” Time, January 22, 2026. Trent Hone, “,” War on the Rocks, January 12, 2026. Mark Cancian, “,” CSIS, December 23, 2025. U.S. Navy, “,” accessed February 24, 2026. Ellen Nakashima et al., “,” Washington Post, January 30, 2026 Zack Cooper, “,” Foreign Affairs, March/April 2026
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Is Resolute Global Leadership the Right Grand Strategy for the United States?
02/12/2026
Is Resolute Global Leadership the Right Grand Strategy for the United States?
In this episode, Chris, Melanie, and Zack, discuss a recent Council on Foreign Relations special report which explores varies grand strategies, and proposes an alternative known as “Resolute Global Leadership.” Is this strategy realistic? Does it accurately assess the strengths and weaknesses of alternatives? And what did the report leave out, or fail to develop adequately, to ensure that it will succeed where others failed? Grievances for what Jeff Bezos has done to the Washington Post, to the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists for their doomsday clock, and to Donald Trump for weighing in on the Japanese parliamentary elections in favor of Sanae Takaichi’s Liberal Democratic Party. Attas to Takaichi for her stunning and unprecedented victory, to Javier Milei for turning around Argentina’s economy, and to Anduril’s Palmer Luckey for admitting that the Pentagon spends too much on the wrong stuff. Show Links: , Council on Foreign Relations, January 2026 Monica Pitrelli and Sydney Goh, , CNBC, February 6, 2026 Benjamin Mullin, Katie Robertson and Erik Wemple, , The New York Times, February 4, 2026 Jack Butler, “,” Wall Street Journal, February 5, 2026.
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New Denial Strategy? Assessing the 2026 NDS
01/29/2026
New Denial Strategy? Assessing the 2026 NDS
Zack, Melanie, and special guest Kelly Grieco take a look at the Department of War’s 2026 National Defense Strategy. What does a “decent peace” with China look like? Is that what China wants? What does the document get right and wrong about burden-sharing among allies and partners? Will this strategy actually help deliver the “peace through strength” that is so important to this administration? Zack has an atta for the foreign affairs reporters at the Washington Post, Kelly has an atta for the Super Bowl-bound New England Patriots, and Melanie has even more grievances for the administration's chaotic tariff policies. Show Links: , Department of War, January 2026. Editorial Board, “,” Washington Post, January 26, 2026. Friedrich Merz, , January 23, 2026. Jim Geraghty, “,” January 20, 2026.
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Crude Awakening: Maduro’s Seizure and Venezuela’s Future
01/15/2026
Crude Awakening: Maduro’s Seizure and Venezuela’s Future
Fresh off the shock of the U.S. operation to capture Nicolás Maduro, the Net Assessment team debates the merits of the operation and what it means for Venezuela’s future. They also discuss why it caught (some of) them off guard, and what it implies about the Trump administration’s decision-making going forward. Chris also questions Trump’s proposed defense budget increase, Melanie gives Denmark a badly needed attaboy, and Zack critiques Pete Hegseth’s punishment of Mark Kelly. *The Net Assessment Podcast is hosted by the Stimson Center and produced by University FM. Show Links: Emma Salisbury, “,” Behind the Front, January 8, 2026. Leo Shane III, “,” Politico, January 8, 2026. Eric Boehm, “” Reason, January 5, 2026. Matthew Cullen, “,” New York Times, January 8, 2026. “,” Taxpayers for Common Sense, January 7, 2026. “,” Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, January 7, 2026. Stephen Collinson, “,” CNN, January 6, 2026. David E. Sanger et al., “,” New York Times, January 8, 2026.
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Farewell 2025, Hello 2026
01/01/2026
Farewell 2025, Hello 2026
In this special bonus episode, the Net Assessment crew – Chris, Melanie, and Zack - looks back on the highs (and lows) of 2025, and makes a few predictions for 2026. Thanks all around to our listeners, the Stimson Center, and University FM for their fantastic production. Show Links: Hadeel al-Salchi, “,” NPR, December 16, 2025. “,” Last Days in Vietnam, PBS. Justin Bronk, “,” Foreign Affairs, December 15, 2025. Christopher Clary, “,” Stimson Center May 28, 2025. Zack Cooper, “,” The American Enterprise, March 5, 2025. The Daily, "", March 20, 2025. Aude Darnal and Christopher Preble, “,” in “Testing Assumptions About US Foreign Policy in 2025,” Stimson Center, February 14, 2025. Jeffrey Friedman, “,” Texas National Security Review (Vol 8, Iss 4, Fall 2025, 34-48), . Jonathan Guyer, “,” The New York Times, December 15, 2025. “,” Stimson Center, September 29, 2025. Jennifer Lind and Daryl G. Press, “,” Foreign Affairs, July/August 2025. Aaron Maclean, “,” Engelsberg Ideas, July 9, 2025. Michael Nienaber, “,” Bloomberg, December 17, 2025. Persuasion, "," May 17, 2025. Christopher Preble, , 1:55 am, October 18,2025. “,” Net Assessment, October 2, 2025. Joanna Stern, “,” Wall Street Journal, December 18, 2025. “,” AP, March 26, 2025. “”, Net Assessment, August 7, 2025. Nancy A. Youssef, “,” The Atlantic, December 11, 2025.
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What Does the United States Want From China and Why Can’t We Get It?
12/25/2025
What Does the United States Want From China and Why Can’t We Get It?
In this episode, Chris, Melanie, and Zack look at U.S. policy toward China. What does the United States, that is Donald Trump, want from China? What should the Trump administration be willing to compromise on to get it? And what does Trump need that China would be willing to give up? Grievances for President Trump’s tasteless social media post following the murder of Rob and Michele Reiner; for those who bet on war (and rig the maps to win); and for the Pentagon’s attacks on Sen. (and retired Navy Captain) Mark Kelly for daring to suggest that people in the military shouldn’t follow unlawful orders. Speaking of unlawful orders, attas to Sen. Kelly and others calling out the Trump admin’s dubious case for striking boats in the Caribbean and the Pacific. Plus a shout out for reporters covering the Trump administration, who manage to break news despite the hurdles. Show Links: Derek Scissors and Zack Cooper, “,” Washington Post, December 16, 2025. Lily Kuo, “,” New York Times, December 12, 2025. Saif Khan, Tao Burga, Tim Fist, and Georgia Adamson, “” Institute for Progress, December 7, 2025. Nick Cleveland-Stout, “,” Responsible Statecraft, December 11, 2025. and , “,” The Hill, December 17, 2025. Jonathan Gilbert, “,” Bloomberg, December 14, 2025. Alan Beattie, “,” Financial Times, December 15, 2025. Susannah Savage, “,” Financial Times, December 10, 2025.
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'Safer, Richer, Freer, Greater'? Trump's New Strategy for American Power
12/11/2025
'Safer, Richer, Freer, Greater'? Trump's New Strategy for American Power
Chris, Zack, and Melanie take a look at the Trump administration’s newly-released US National Security Strategy. Is it a coherent strategy? How will diplomacy, military might, and economic power be developed and deployed to advance American interests? Will the strategy usher in a new Golden Age, and “make America safer, richer, freer, greater, and more powerful than ever before,” as the President claims in the preface? Chris has a grievance for the inability of the Navy to design and produce small surface combatants, Zack is pleased with Congress asserting itself in the new NDAA, and Melanie has shoutouts for three friends who are moving on to new adventures in their lives. Show Links: , The White House, November 2025. Matt Jamison, “,” LinkedIn, December 2, 2025. Bryan McGrath, “,” Substack, December 1, 2025. Sam LaGrone, "," USNI News, November 25, 2025. Evan Cooper, , Stimson Center, December 2, 2025. Sam LaGrone, "," USNI News, November 25, 2025. Evan Cooper, , Stimson Center, December 2, 2025.
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Reciprocity: The Once and Future Strategy?
11/26/2025
Reciprocity: The Once and Future Strategy?
Chris, Melanie, and Zack discuss Oren Cass’s recent article articulating a “Grand Strategy of Reciprocity.” Cass argues that the United States should build a bloc of countries that agree to engage with each other on comparable terms while jointly excluding others that will not fulfill the same obligations. Is this possible or realistic? And how does it align with the Trump administration’s approach? Meanwhile, Chris commends the Eurasia Group’s Institute for Global Affairs, Melanie criticizes Chinese entities purchasing properties near critical US installations, and Zack laments a fundamental misreading of game theory by Scott Bessent. Show Links: Oren Cass, “,” Foreign Affairs, November/December 2025. Scott Bessent, “,” Washington Post, November 23, 2025. Nate Jones, “,” Washington Post, November 13, 2025. Jonathan Guyer, Lucas Robinson, Eloise Cassier, Ransom Miller, “” Institute for Global Affairs, November 6, 2025 Chris Mason and Becky Morton, “,” BBC, November 21, 2025. Philip Lenczycki, “,” Daily Caller, November 10, 2025. Supporting Stimson,
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Whither Venezuela?
11/13/2025
Whither Venezuela?
Chris, Melanie, and Zack, convene for a wide-ranging discussion of U.S. current and prospective military operations against the country of Venezuela, and the regime of Nicolas Maduro. Why is the United States sending fighter jets, an aircraft carrier, and other assets to the Caribbean? What does the military buildup say about which voices in the administration are being heard? And is there anything that Maduro can do, any deal he can make with Donald Trump, to avoid regime change, with or without a military conflict? Grievances for universities who cave to Chinese pressure and stop reporting on human rights abuses, to the Department of Defense’s new plan for facilitating foreign arms sales, and to Congress for the pointless government shutdown. Attas to Norway for realizing that Chinese-made electric vehicles are vulnerable to hacking, to Paul Kelly for realizing the John Lennon’s “Imagine” is a terrible song, to the Supreme Court and some members of Congress for appearing to resist Trump’s executive overreach (finally!), and to the nation’s veterans on the occasion of their annual official holiday. Show Links: Missy Ryan, Vivian Salama, Michael Scherer, and Nancy A. Youssef, “” The Atlantic, November 6, 2025 Matthew Kroenig, “,” Foreign Policy, November 7, 2025 Justin Logan and Lawrence Montreuil, “,” Cato at Liberty, October 31, 2025 Alexander B. Downes and Lindsey A. O’Rourke, “,” Foreign Affairs, October 31, 2025 Dan Grazier, “,” Responsible Statecraft, November 6, 2025 Brett Samuels, "," The Hill, November 3, 2025. Augusta Saraiva, "," Bloomberg, November 1, 2025 "," AP, November 5, 2025." Nadeem Badshad, "," The Guardian, November 3, 2025.
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Are Rising Powers Over?
10/30/2025
Are Rising Powers Over?
Chris, Zack, and Melanie get together to talk about Michael Beckley’s new article, “The Stagnant Order and the End of Rising Powers.” What consequences might the decline and greying of populations have for global security? Has the era of transformative discoveries ended? Has the United States become a “rogue superpower, with little sense of obligation beyond itself”? Have corruption, political dysfunction, and waning innovation made it impossible for states to pursue agendas of economic growth and national security? Chris has a strong grievance for Congress which has failed to do its constitutional job and is again putting the country through a government shutdown, Zack praises President Trump for securing a peace deal between Cambodia and Thailand, and Melanie is frustrated by President Trump putting more tariffs on Canada because of an ad featuring President Reagan that he didn’t like. Links Francis J. Gavin, (International Institute of Strategic Studies, 2024). Brian Mann and Sarah McCammon, NPR, October 27, 2025. Julia Gledhill, Stimson Center/Costs of War Project, October 23, 2025. Pooja Salhotra, “,” New York Times, October 26, 2025. Lalee Ibssa and Ivan Periera, “,” ABC News, October 26, 2025. , White House, October 20, 2025. Nicholas Eberstadt, “,” Foreign Affairs, January/February 2025. Greg Iacurci, “,” CNBC, October 17, 2025.
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Can Foreign Aid Be Reformed? Should It Be?
10/16/2025
Can Foreign Aid Be Reformed? Should It Be?
Chris, Melanie, and Zack review Adam Tooze’s recent article on the failure of the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) – and Western-directed aid efforts generally. What should be the goals of foreign aid? Can development assistance, as it has recently been implemented, actually make a meaningful long-term difference in living standards? What might steep cuts in foreign aid mean for poor countries? In an era of great power competition, should we look at development assistance as a way to counter China’s influence? Grievances for the Trump administration’s policies toward China and its new deals with Qatar, and to the US Senate for failing to assert its authority over the war powers. Attas to President Trump for successfully brokering a cease-fire deal between Israel and Hamas, and for negotiating a new deal with Finland to build icebreakers. Links: Adam Tooze, “,” Foreign Policy, September 8, 2025, Evan Cooper and Alessandro Perri, “,” Stimson Center, September 19, 2025 Max Bearak and Lazaro Gamio, “,” Washington Post, October 18, 2016 Rand Paul, “,” Reason, October 8, 2025 Kathryn Watson, “,” CBS News, October 10, 2025 “,” International Affairs Forum, Traverse City, MI, October 23, 2025 Valentina Finckenstein, , LSE Ideas, February 2021. William Easterly, , Penguin Books, 2007. “,” The Economist, March 6, 2025. Noah Robertson, Katie Tarrant, Ellen Nakashima, “,” Washington Post, October 9, 2025. Steve Holland, Anne Kauranen, Jeff Mason, and Gram Slattery, “,” Reuters, October 9, 2025.
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Prediction is Hard, Especially about Confidence Levels
10/02/2025
Prediction is Hard, Especially about Confidence Levels
Chris, Melanie, and Zack discuss the confidence problem among national security experts. As Jeffrey Friedman shows in a recent Texas National Security Review article, experts are often right but almost always overconfident in their predictions. What does this mean for the national security community? And how can experts address this systemic problem? Chris laments the Pentagon’s in-person gathering of military leaders and Melanie condemns misguided economic policymaking, while Zack commends President Trump’s support for a tougher NATO response to Russian incursions. Links: Jeffrey Friedman, “,” Texas National Security Review, Fall 2025. “,” Foreign Affairs. Philip E. Tetlock, Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?, Princeton University Press, 2017. Drew FitzGerald and Lara Seligman, “,” Wall Street Journal, September 29, 2025. Derek Scissors and Zack Cooper, “,” AEIdeas, September 25, 2025. Zack Cooper, “,” IDSS Paper, September 5, 2025. Sam Rosenfeld and Matthew Yglesias, “,” American Prospect, October 23, 2005. Tara Copp, Dan Lamothe, Noah Robertson and Alex Horton, “,” Washington Post, September 28, 2025. Adam Goldstein, “,” FIRE, September 22, 2025. Tom Karako, n, CSIS, September 23, 2025. Elisabeth Buchwald, "," CNN, September 29, 2025.
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Is a Fight with Russia Worth the Risks?
09/18/2025
Is a Fight with Russia Worth the Risks?
Chris, Zack, and Melanie take some time to talk about how the United States, Europe, and Russia are dealing with the Ukraine conflict. Would a Russian win in a war which is costing billions of dollars, killing hundreds of thousands of Russians, and reinforcing Moscow's junior partner status to China only be a pyrrhic victory? Does Russia hold a winning hand because it seems to be willing to take on greater risk than Europe and the United States? Was the passive American reaction to the Russian drone incursion into Poland a sign that the US is done providing security commitments to Europe? Have European governments reached a consensus on whether a sovereign Ukraine is worth a military fight with Russia? Chris is impressed with how Utah Governor Spencer Cox has handled the complex politics following the murder of Charlie Kirk, Zack has an atta for a colleague’s Golden Dome cost calculator, and Melanie is disappointed that the West Point Association of Graduates has cancelled an event at which Tom Hanks was to be awarded the Sylvanus Thayer Award for his longtime dedication to promoting stories of American heroism and innovation and elevating the stories of American veterans. Show Links: Robert Kagan, “,” The Atlantic, September 10, 2025. Franz-Stefan Gady, “,” September 10, 2025. Jeremy Shapiro, “,” The Atlantic, September 10, 2025. Alexandra E. Petri, “,” New York Times, September 7, 2025. Mike Stone, “,” Reuters, September 6, 2025. Charlie Edwards and Nate S, “,” IISS, August 19, 2025. “,” Reuters, September 9, 2025. Joshua Rovner, , January 2025. McKay Coppins, “,” The Atlantic, September 13, 2025. Todd Harrison, “,” American Enterprise Institute, September 12, 2025. , State Department, September 15, 2025.
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How Will the U.S. Deal With a Weaponized World Economy?
09/04/2025
How Will the U.S. Deal With a Weaponized World Economy?
Chris, Melanie, and Zack discuss Henry Farrell and Abraham Newman’s new article “The Weaponized World Economy.” Is the United States, which has been accused of weaponizing the global economy now getting a taste of its own medicine? Should America try to rebuild its economic security state for a world in which adversaries and allies can also employ economic coercion against us? And what are the key risks or challenges that the U.S. government will face if it goes down this path? Grievances for using the National Guard to pick up trash; to President Trump for toying with the idea of running for a third term; and to the Trump administration for botching the relationship with India. Attas to America’s workers on Labor Day – including the millions who came here from outside of the United States; to Marco Rubio and Steve Witkoff for their performance in the last Cabinet meeting; and to a German firm, Luxcara’s, decision to drop Chinese technology in a new windfarm. Show Links: Henry Farrell and Abraham Newman, Foreign Affairs, September/October 2025. Tara Copp, ” The Washington Post, August 27, 2025. Paul Kiernan, Wall Street Journal, August 24, 2025. Marco Rubio, “,” US State Department, May 28, 2025. Greg Ip, “,” Wall Street Journal, August, 11, 2025. Jonah Goldberg, “,” The Dispatch, August 27, 2025. Howard Lutnik on The Ingraham Angle, , August 25, 2025. Petra Sorge, “,” Bloomberg, August 25, 2025. Noah Barkin, , August 27, 2025. Jason Ma, “,’” MSN.com, August 30, 2025. Stimson event on September 17th, . Support Stimson, .
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A Strategy of Prioritization?
08/21/2025
A Strategy of Prioritization?
Chris, Melanie, and Zack discuss Jennifer Lind and Daryl Press’s recent article on strategies of prioritization. They examine the challenges of executing such a strategy and debate whether the Trump administration is actually implementing this approach in practice. Chris commends Emma Ashford for her forthcoming book on multipolarity, Melanie laments attacks on Medal of Honor recipient Florent Groberg, and Zack critiques the Trump administration’s efforts to collect export taxes. Show Links: Jennifer Lind and Daryl G. Press, “,” Foreign Affairs, June 24, 2025 Jasper Ward, “,” Reuters, August 16, 2025 Ilya Somin, “,” The Bulwark, August 15, 2025 Laura Loomer, , August 8, 2025 Florent Groberg, , August 8, 2025 Medal of Honor for Florent Groberg Ione Wells, “,” BBC, August 18, 2025 Emma Ashford, (Yale University Press, 2025) , New York Times Support Stimson,
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What’s the Plan for AI?
08/07/2025
What’s the Plan for AI?
Chris, Zack, and Melanie sit down to chat about the recently-released White House AI Action Plan. Should American AI policy be in pursuit of unchallenged dominance in the field? What kinds of investments and policy choices should the US government be making in order to accelerate AI innovation and deployment? Can the United States become one-stop-shopping for full-stack AI for our friends, in order to counter Chinese supremacy? Do Trump administration policies of the last six months contribute to us achieving our AI goals? Chris is unhappy with the firing of Bureau of Labor Statistics Commission Erika McEntarfer, Zack compliments the CCP on getting the Trump administration to capitulate on its trade agenda, and Melanie calls out Senator Josh Hawley for his proposal to give $600 tariff rebate checks when the Trump tariffs are being advertised as a way to bring down the national debt. Show Links: The White House, “,” July 2025. Editorial Board, “,” Washington Post, July 27, 2025. Raffaele Huang and Liza Lin, “,” Wall Street Journal, July 30, 2025. Mehdi Alhassani and Anthony Bak, “,” Wall Street Journal, May 16, 2025. Aaron MacLean, “,” Engelsberg Ideas, July 9, 2025. Jeffrey Ding, “,” Foreign Affairs, August 19, 2024. “,” July 28, 2025. Nevada Joan Lee and Christopher Preble, “,” Stimson Center, August 1, 2025. Christopher Preble, “,” Stimson Center, July 31, 2025. The Editorial Board, “,” Wall Street Journal, August 3, 2024. Spencer Jakab, “,” Wall Street Journal, August 4, 2025. Power Problems, Blue Blaze, . Support Stimson, .
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Combating Mexican drug cartels: Is there a military solution?
07/24/2025
Combating Mexican drug cartels: Is there a military solution?
In this show, Chris, Melanie, and Zack consider the different military options being considered to combat Mexican drug cartels. Are the cartels that manufacture and distribute drugs that kill Americans, particularly fentanyl, a threat to US national security? If so, is military action, with or without the approval of the Mexican government, a viable solution? And if a military operation isn’t a great idea, are there other ways to stop the tens of thousands of fentanyl and other drug-related deaths that occur in the United States every year? Melanie remembers Andrew Schwartz, a force of nature at CSIS who passed away earlier this month. The crew has shout outs for Ukraine’s drone manufacturers and researchers Jessica Batke and Laura Edelson on “The Locknet,” regarding China’s control of the Internet. Grievances for the Trump administration’s handling of staff cuts at the State Department, and for strong-arming allies regarding a hypothetical conflict with China over Taiwan. Show Links: Dan DePetris and Chris McCallion, “,” Defense Priorities, July 2, 2025 Simon Shuster, “,” Time, July 17, 2025 Caitlin Doombos, Ronny Reyes, “,” New York Post, July 17, 2025 Neal Urwitz, “,” National Security Journal, July 18, 2025 Christopher Preble, Stimson Center, January 25, 2024 Demetri Sevastopulo, “,” Financial Times, July 12, 2025 Jessica Batke and Laura Edelson, “,” ChinaFile, June 30, 2025 Support Net Assessment at
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A New Nuclear Age: The Sum of All Fears?
07/10/2025
A New Nuclear Age: The Sum of All Fears?
Chris, Melanie, and Zack discuss the “nuclear hurricane” sweeping the world. They begin by returning to the question of whether President Trump made the right decision to conduct strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities. Then they shift to discussing Vipin Narang and Pranay Vaddi’s recent article “How to Survive the New Nuclear Age.” Should American leaders adopt a new nuclear strategy or adjust existing nuclear policies and capabilities? Chris endorses the Trump administration’s rethinking of certain types of aid to Ukraine, Melanie applauds General Dan Caine’s handling of a delicate political situation, and Zack commends Congressman Don Bacon for his leadership. Show Links: Vipin Narang and Pranay Vaddi, “,” Foreign Affairs, July/August 2025. James Acton, “,” Council on Foreign Relations, June 2025. Ankit Panda, Vipin Narang, and Pranay Vaddi, “,’” War on the Rocks, March 10, 2025. “,” Global Santa Fe, Wednesday, July 16, 5 pm. Geoff Wilson, Christopher Preble, Lucas Ruiz, “,” Stimson Center, February 19, 2025. Christopher Preble, “,” Review of Nuclear Statecraft: History and Strategy in America’s Atomic Age by Francis J. Gavin, International Studies Review, March 2014. Jack Goldsmith, “,” Executive Functions Substack, July 3, 2025. Gen. Dan Caine, , June 26, 2025. Annie Karni, “,’” New York Times, June 8, 2025. , https://www.stimson.org/support/.
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Trump Hammers Iran. What Comes Next?
06/26/2025
Trump Hammers Iran. What Comes Next?
Chris, Zack, and Melanie get together to discuss the very rapidly moving events in the Middle East following the execution of Operation Midnight Hammer. Why did President Trump decide to move from negotiating with Iran to ordering the strikes on the country’s nuclear facilities? Is this a case of alliance entrapment, or is it an example of an “America First” foreign policy? Is this the beginning of another long slog for America in the Middle East? Even though he has Republican majorities in the House and Senate, President Trump did not seek congressional authorization for the mission. Was he constitutionally required to do so? What are the most likely near- and medium-term outcomes of the American and Israeli strikes? There are grievances for Democrats who didn’t object to the unauthorized exercise of war powers by Presidents Obama and Biden but are suddenly relocating their constitutional scruples with a Republican now at the helm, a video message on nuclear weapons by DNI Tulsi Gabbard that may serve to undermine US extended deterrence, and the increasing violence against government officials and lack of security for them. Attas go to the Institute for Global Affairs for new analysis of several countries’ perceptions of national security threats and priorities, to the United States Armed Forces for the brilliantly executed Operation Midnight Hammer, and to the United States Studies Centre for a fantastic workshop on integrated air and missile defense. Show Links: “,” June 17, 2025 Eloise Cassier, Jonathan Guyer, Lucas Robinson, Ransom Miller, “," Institute for Global Affairs, June 12, 2052 Evan Cooper, Christopher Preble, Alessandro Perri, “,” Stimson Center, June 18, 2025 Alice Hunt Friend, Melanie Marlowe, Christopher Preble, “,” Net Assessment, February 6, 2020 Patrick Kingsley, Adam Rasgon, Ronen Bergman, Natan Odenheimer, Julian E. Barnes, “,” New York Times, June 19, 2025. Jonathan Swan, Maggie Haberman, Mark Mazzetti, Ronen Bergman, “,” New York Times, June 17, 2025. Darya Dolzikova and Matthew Savill, “,” Royal United Services Institute, June 16, 2025. to direct the removal of United States Armed Forces from hostilities against the Islamic Republic of Iran that have not been authorized by Congress, June 2025. Support Net Assessment at Stimson,
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Understanding the Four-Day War between India and Pakistan
06/12/2025
Understanding the Four-Day War between India and Pakistan
Chris, Melanie, and Zack discuss the recent short war between India and Pakistan. Christopher Clary’s first cut of history provides a careful reconstruction of the key events, made all the more difficult by misinformation and disinformation on both sides. But did either side “win”? What role, if any, did Trump administration officials play in negotiating the ceasefire, and what does their involvement portend for the future? How did new technology shape each side’s behavior in that conflict? And are crises between the two countries likely to escalate in severity in the coming years, or can they reach some accommodation? Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth earns a grievance for gutting the Pentagon’s operational testing office, but an atta for his strong performance at the Shangri-La Dialogue defense summit in Singapore. Attas to the Ukrainians for the audacious drone attack deep inside of Russia, to President Trump for repealing the supersonic air travel ban, and to the newly elected South Korean President Lee Jae-Myung. Grievances for the abysmal state of servicemembers’ housing, and to the Trump administration’s crackdown on foreign students wishing to attend U.S. universities. Show Links: Christopher Clary, “Four Days in May: The India-Pakistan Crisis of 2025,” Stimson Center, May 28, 2025 Asfandyar Mir, “India and Pakistan Enter a More Dangerous Era,” New York Times, May 9, 2025 “Five Key Concepts to Understand the India-Pakistan Crisis,” May 19, 2025, Stimson Center Supporting Stimson: Dan Grazier, “Gutting military testing office may be the deadliest move yet,” Responsible Statecraft, June 4, 2025 Choe Sang-Hun, “He Survived a Knife to the Neck. Now He’ll Lead a Divided South Korea,” New York Times, June 3, 2025 Donald Trump, , Truth Social, April 22, 2025. Donald Trump, , Truth Social, May 10, 2025. Executive Order, “,” White House, June 6, 2025. Sudhi, Ranjan Sen, Faseeh Mangi, Dan Strumpf, and Akyla Gardner, “,” Bloomberg, May 11, 2025. Diaa Hadid and Omkar Khandekar, “,’” National Public Radio, May 10, 2025. Timothy A. Walton and Thomas H. Shugart, , Hudson Institute, January 7, 2025. Rene Kladzyk, “,” Project on Government Oversight, May 29, 2025.
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Great Power Competition or Collusion?
05/29/2025
Great Power Competition or Collusion?
Is President Trump’s approach to foreign policy best described as a spheres of influence approach in which the major players are the United States, China, and Russia? Chris, Melanie, and Zack debate Stacie Goddard’s recent article outlining this idea and assess the implications for Europe, Asia, and North America. Chris expresses frustration with a new brand of American corruption, Melanie highlights China’s acquisition of land near Itaewon, and Zack laments the restructuring of the National Security Council. Links: Stacie E. Goddard, “The Rise and Fall of Great-Power Competition,” Foreign Affairs, May/June 2025, . Monica Duffy Toft, “The Return of Spheres of Influence,” Foreign Affairs, March 13, 2025, . Edward Wong, “Trump’s Vision: One World, Three Powers?,” New York Times, May 26, 2025, . Marc Caputo and Alex Isenstadt, “Scoop: Trump, Rubio take aim at National Security Council’s ‘Deep State’,” Axios, May 23, 2025, . Choe Sang-Hun, “North Korea Makes Arrests Over Failed Ship Launch That Angered Kim Jong-un,” New York Times, May 25, 2025, . Rebecca Ballhaus and Angus Berwick, “The Father Pursues Trump’s Diplomatic Deals. The Son Chases Crypto Deals,” Wall Street Journal, May 22, 2025,
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The Paradoxical Power?
05/15/2025
The Paradoxical Power?
An immense and growing national debt, entrenched political polarization, and falling levels of patriotism might lead some to conclude that the position of the United States in the world is weakening compared to other major economies. Michael Beckley looks at other measures, including geography, wealth, alliances, and demographics, and concludes that “This is the paradox of American power: the United States is a divided country, perpetually perceived as in decline, yet it consistently remains the wealthiest and most powerful state in the world—leaving competitors behind.” But, he says, all is not well: an urban-rural divide and a “hollow internationalism” threaten our stability and security. Chris, Zack, and Melanie talk about whether the United States is in decline, how our advantages might create vulnerabilities, and how dysfunction at home affects America’s ability to wield influence abroad. Chris has a shoutout for Gabe Murphy and his work on base realignment, Zack has a remembrance of recently-passed security scholar, practitioner, and mentor Joseph Nye, and Melanie criticizes the Biden administration for not coming clean about the extent of failure of the Gaza Pier. Links: Michael Beckley, “,” Foreign Affairs, January/February 2025. Michael Beckley, “,” Foreign Affairs, April 16, 2025. Christopher Preble, Cato at Liberty, March 3, 2016. Alexander Cornwell, Reuters, May 7, 2025. Supporting Stimson, Gabe Murphy, Taxpayers for Common Sense, May 2025. John Hendel, “,” Politico, September 4, 2024. Alex Horton, “Biden’s Gaza Pier Was More Dangerous and Costly than Previously Known,” , May 7, 2025. John Arnold, , X, May 11, 2025.
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Is Arms Control Dead?
05/02/2025
Is Arms Control Dead?
Chris, Melanie, and Zack consider Rose Gottemoeller’s claim that arms control is not yet dead, but essential. Are there realistic prospects for a new arms control deal? If the Trump administration seriously seeks agreements with Russia and China, what should we demand? And what concessions might we offer? And what should be the objective of any new arms control agreements? Grievances for the Pentagon’s slow-motion train wreck, to worrisome reports of deep cuts at the State Department, and for the Trump administration’s reported minerals deal in Ukraine. Zack offers a heartfelt attaboy to his mentor Richard Armitage, who passed away earlier this month after a lifetime of service. Attas also to Secretary of State Marco Rubio for not cutting State more, and to the Carnegie Endowment for a new report on the foreign policy attitudes of Generation Z. Links: Rose Gottemoeller, “,” Foreign Affairs, April 15, 2025 Christopher S. Chivvis and Lauren Morganbesser, “,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, April 17, 2025 Geoff Wilson, Christohper Preble, and Lucas Ruiz, , Stimson Center, February 19, 2025 Nancy A. Youssef, Alexander Ward, and Vera Bergengruen, “,” Wall Street Journal, April 24, 2025 Supporting Stimson, “Armitage’s Story,” Last Days in Vietnam clip, PBS, .
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Why the Trump Administration Will Struggle to Make National Security Policy
04/17/2025
Why the Trump Administration Will Struggle to Make National Security Policy
Chris, Melanie, and Zack launch their first Stimson-hosted Net Assessment show with a look at policymaking in the Trump administration. What are the major areas of consensus and disagreement within the administration? Through what lens will policy makers look at challenges such as China? And is a lack of ideological coherence a net positive or negative? Grievances for House GOP leaders playing games with the calendar to avoid a tough vote; for DOGE’s spending cuts that won’t drive the savings they claim, but that are creating havoc; and (again) for the Navy’s troubled Constellation frigate. Attas to Princeton President Christopher L. Eisgruber for standing up for academic freedom; for President Trump’s executive orders on the maritime industrial base and acquisition reform; and to Deputy DNI for Mission Integration William Ruger. And a bonus attagirl to our biggest fan: Melanie’s mom! Links: Tanner Greer, “,” Foreign Policy Research Institute, March 27, 2025. Ross Douthat, “,” New York Times, April 12, 2025. “,” Online Event, Stimson Center, May 1, 2025, 2-3 pm ET Joseph Trevithick, “,” TWZ, April 10, 2025 Alistair MacDonald and Gordon Lubold, “,” Wall Street Journal, March 20, 2025 Emma Ashford, “,” War on the Rocks, March 13, 2020 Kenza Bryan and Demitri Sevastopulo, "," Financial Times, April 12, 2025. Arthur Delaney, Igor Bobic, and Jennifer Bendery, "," HuffPost, April 9, 2025. Erin Banco, Gram Slattery, and Humeyra Pamuk, "," Reuters, April 12, 2025. “,” The Daily, New York Times, April 9, 2925.
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One Last Trip Around the World?
04/03/2025
One Last Trip Around the World?
Chris, Melanie, and Zack are joined by a special guest for a big announcement. They also lament the demise of the Office of Net Assessment, debate the merits of DOGE, and discuss Secretary Hegseth’s visit to Asia and the strength of those alliances. If you would like to support Net Assessment, please consider donating to this special fund: https://www.stimson.org/support/
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Will Israel Strike Iran?
03/20/2025
Will Israel Strike Iran?
Chris, Melanie, and Zack debate whether Israel will strike Iranian nuclear facilities and whether the United States would discourage, encourage, or participate in such an operation. They come to very different conclusions not just about the likelihood of strikes, but also the strategic logic. Chris laments the removal of historical information from U.S. government websites, Melanie has a grievance with Congress for turning again to a continuing resolution to fund government, and Zack criticizes the administration’s efforts to pull Congressionally appropriated funds from several storied American institutions.
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The End of the World, Again?
03/06/2025
The End of the World, Again?
Chris, Zack, and Melanie have a rather somber discussion about the Trump administration’s efforts to get a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. Why is Trump so insistent on getting an immediate deal? What carrots and sticks, if any, are being given to each side? How will Europe respond to the obviously permanent change in the transatlantic relationship? Chris has some hard words for Congress for its abdication of oversight of arms sales, Zack gives an atta to his brilliant wife, and Melanie is pretty darn proud of the work being done at War on the Rocks.
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Is The People's Liberation Army Ready For a Fight Over Taiwan?
02/20/2025
Is The People's Liberation Army Ready For a Fight Over Taiwan?
In this show, Melanie, Chris, and Zack discuss Timothy Heath’s recent paper on China’s military capabilities. Heath argues that the People's Liberation Army mostly focused on preserving the Chinese Communist Party’s rule, and that does not necessarily translate to combat effectiveness. But is Heath right? Do we make a mistake in focusing too much on what is apparent from the outside? And if the People's Liberation Army is not ready to fight right now, might it be in the future? Grievances for Lindsey Graham’s wish-casting on Trump and NATO, for the Trump administration blowing up transatlantic relations, and for European leaders being caught off guard. Attas for President Trump’s wisdom on nuclear weapons, to Narendra Modi for strengthening the U.S.-Indian relationship, and to Poland’s Donald Tusk, and France’s Ben Haddad, for taking the hard steps to try to build European self-reliance.
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Risky Business: Assessing Risk to U.S. Strategy
02/06/2025
Risky Business: Assessing Risk to U.S. Strategy
The Net Assessment team discusses Frank Hoffman’s recent Joint Force Quarterly article about risk. They share concerns about the challenges that U.S. policymakers face in evaluating risk in a structured way. But they also fear that the solutions to these problems will require more fundamental changes to the U.S. bureaucracy than have been contemplated. Chris gives an attaboy to experts heading into the Trump administration, Melanie commends the White House’s interest in missile defense, and Zack gives the State Department kudos for bringing together an early meeting of Quad foreign ministers. All three lament the use of tariffs against U.S. neighbors who already agreed to trade deals during Trump’s first term.
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