The Week Ahead - A Sticky Situation
Nomura – The Week Ahead
Amid sticky US inflation and AI unwind concerns, we assess the Fed outlook, alongside UK resilience and the outlook for China. In the US, hotter-than-expected inflation data are is unlikely to force a Fed hike in October, while AI wobbles shouldn’t impact the broader economy for now. In Europe, UK inflation and jobs data are is in focus, alongside a French fiscal vote. In Asia, we look at China’s Q3 GDP data release and discuss the latest developments regarding EU-China trade policy. Chapters: US: 02:59; EMEA: 08:59; China: 14:34; Rest of Asia: 21:47
info_outline
The Week Ahead - Special Edition: Assessing EM Sovereign Ratings with Fitch
Nomura – The Week Ahead
At our Nomura Research Forum in Bangkok, Fitch’s Thomas Rookmaaker and Erich Arispe, heads of Asia-Pacific and Eastern Europe sovereigns, respectively, discuss EM credit ratings which are facing multiple shocks.
info_outline
Understanding Japan - How are Demographics Changing Japan?
Nomura – The Week Ahead
Japan's working-age population isn't just aging anymore, its shrinking. But here's the paradox: fewer workers, rising productivity, rising GDP per capita and inflation. If you cannot fix the labor shortages, what do you do instead?
info_outline
The Week Ahead - Mon Dieu!
Nomura – The Week Ahead
We take a deep-dive into French bond market turmoil, while tracking other risks and key events ahead. In Europe, we examine French and peripheral bond markets with special guest Marine Mazet. In the US, we preview coming inflation and growth data, and discuss the Fed outlook. Across Asia, we cover the RBI’s rate hike decision this week, inflation in China and expected policy tightening in Singapore. Chapters: Europe: 2:51; US: 8:44; Asia: 15:55; Australia: 21:52
info_outline
The Week Ahead - Blow Up?
Nomura – The Week Ahead
Amid very volatile rate movements, we examine the impact of economic and political fundamentals on markets. In the US we analyse the latest labour market release, recent inflation data, and less-hawkish Fed-speak. In Europe, we discuss the French fiscal challenges have dominated the European newsflow alongside recent inflation data and how the ECB might react. In Asia we talk about why the RBI’s rate hiking cycle may be different this time around, as well as the economy’s broader vulnerabilities.
info_outline
The Week Ahead - Special Episode - Fireside Chat with Dr Catherine L Mann
Nomura – The Week Ahead
What’s priced in? Risk premia vs real policy. Live from the Nomura London Macro Forum our lead economists discuss with Dr Mann, whether market pricing or consensus outlook is closer to BoE thinking. Amid elevated uncertainty, how far do rates need to rise? And, why the BoE can’t rely on markets to tighten on its behalf.
info_outline
The Week Ahead – Still looking cloudy from the summit
Nomura – The Week Ahead
Risk-off mode despite the Trump-Xi meeting, and ahead of US core PCE and jobs report, China PMIs, CPI in Europe, and a likely RBA hike. We offer some thoughts on the Trump-Xi summit, and preview core PCE and labor market data in the US. In Europe we discuss the latest on Germany's politics, the significance of widening long-end spreads and the upcoming CPI data. We expect an RBA hike, a pickup in China PMIs and a somewhat divergent inflation picture in Australia, Korea and Indonesia. Chapters: US: 02:34, China: 06:42, Rest of Asia: 12:31, Europe: 17:28
info_outline
The Week Ahead - A Double Header of Hikes
Nomura – The Week Ahead
This week, we start with expectations for additional hikes by the Fed and BOJ this year. In Europe, we preview the Riksbank, Norges Bank, and SNB, which we all expect to stay on-hold. In Asia, we see Bank Indonesia standing pat, core inflation rising in Singapore and job growth rebounding in Australia.
info_outline
The Week Ahead - Crunch time for the Fed and the BOJ
Nomura – The Week Ahead
Fragile bond markets seek relief; will central banks deliver? In the US, we review the August CPI and preview the FOMC meeting and Fed outlook. In Europe, we share our take on the ECB and the coming BOE meeting. Across Asia, we preview the BOJ meeting and key data in China and India. Chapters: US: 02:05, Europe: 05:48, Japan: 10:28, Rest of Asia: 14:53.
info_outline
The Week Ahead - Back to School
Nomura – The Week Ahead
US rate pricing remains volatile between key data releases and contrasting Fed speak, but tightening by the ECB looks much more certain. US jobs data were resilient, leaving the market awaiting inflation data to ascertain the Fed’s next move. In Europe we preview the ECB’s upcoming rate decision and talk about Scandinavian inflation. Across Asia, we look at inflation and trade data and focus on the challenges facing Indonesia. Chapters: US: 02:02, Europe: 08:13, Asia: 15:25.
info_outlineHear from George Moran, Host & European Economist, David Seif, Chief Economist for Developed Markets, and George Buckley, Chief UK & Euro Area Economist, as they discuss the key drivers for global markets next week. Political events are moving fast in the UK, France and the US, but markets will probably move the most, as they typically do, on US CPI.
Chapters: US (01:12), Europe (06:54), Asia (13:12)