The Week Ahead - Tariff Time
Nomura – The Week Ahead
In the week to date, US bond yields are a little higher across the curve, and the USD has been a little stronger too, while equities really have had a couple of up and down days. Another big theme for global markets has been around the idea of US exceptionalism, that took a dent as some US data printed weaker, Europe data looked better, and as China and Europe announced some stimulus plans over prior weeks. For the week ahead, it really is crunch time with April 2 tariff announcements just around the corner. Chapters: US (01:56), Europe (10:47), Asia (13:59).
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The Week Ahead – In The Eye of The Storm
Nomura – The Week Ahead
Financial markets have been difficult to navigate, with equity markets bouncing from their recent lows but still seeing sizable intraday swings. Interest rates seem to be similarly caught between potential upside inflation risks from some sources, and challenging growth dynamics on the other. And all of this comes ahead of the April 2nd tariff announcements from the US which also have the potential to jolt markets further. In Europe, we look for further signs that German’s fiscal reform is feeding into stronger growth expectations, while the UK’s fiscal room looks more constrained. In...
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The Week Ahead – Grappling With Uncertainty
Nomura – The Week Ahead
Market participants continue to grapple with a very high degree of uncertainty which is starting to have real economic consequences. The week ahead should be very interesting with key central bank decisions, and we could get some guidance on how policymakers think about and deal with the uncertainty, particularly from rising global trade tensions. We share our expectations for an on-hold decision at the upcoming FOMC meeting, and for the Fed’s tone to continue to emphasize patience. We also expect a pause from the BOE’s cutting cycle. Lastly, we discuss why communication is a bigger focus...
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The Week Ahead – Tariffs Kick In; Europe Kicks Off With Fiscal Easing
Nomura – The Week Ahead
Markets have seen sizable moves as the US administration ramped up tariffs and Germany announced a huge fiscal package. (02:30) With US tariffs hitting last week, we discuss what is actually in place, what is likely to come and the impact on the US, China and Europe. (15:15) Germany’s fiscal stimulus is having a major market impact and should meaningfully raise growth, inflation and ECB expectations. (20:15) We also preview next week’s inflation data out of the US and China.
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The Week Ahead – China To The Rescue?
Nomura – The Week Ahead
It’s a big week for China with all eyes on the National People’s Congress (NPC), where fiscal measures could be announced. We outline our expectations and whether the NPC could potentially provide a lift in market sentiment. In the US, we preview the February employment report and its impact on Fed policy, and digest the latest announcements on tariffs. In Europe, we discuss our expectations of the ECB, where we go from here after the German elections and what is Europe’s next move around the peace deal. Chapters: US (02:10), Europe (07:40), Asia (15:45).
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The Week Ahead – Risk Sentiment Intact, For Now
Nomura – The Week Ahead
Market sentiment seems to be holding in pretty well as this week comes to a close. Equity markets are generally holding up at healthy levels, credit spreads remain pretty tight, and commodity currencies, which are often seen as global growth sensitive and risk barometers, are holding up at higher levels. This week in the US, our focus will be on core PCE inflation and any new Trump or tariff developments. In Europe, we’ll be watching the German election fallout, along with the latest inflation readings. Then it’s the latest from Asia, with central bank meetings in Korea and Thailand, and...
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The Week Ahead – Give Peace A Chance?
Nomura – The Week Ahead
Early signs of a potential Russia-Ukraine peace deal are boosting market optimism, with EUR/USD trading up towards its highest level since late-January and European equities continuing to surge. We discuss what this might mean for the euro area outlook. This positivity is, however, still being partially offset by the ongoing threat of US tariffs and by sticky inflation data in the US. We also preview next week’s central bank decisions in Australia, New Zealand and Indonesia. Chapters: Europe (02:02), Asia (07:32), US (11:38).
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The Week Ahead – Not Tariffic
Nomura – The Week Ahead
This past week began with the news that Mexico and Canada had secured a temporary reprieve from US tariffs. However, we see higher tariffs as highly likely. This week also brought us stronger-than-expected earnings data in Japan. Looking ahead, in the US our focus will be on any further tariff news, the January CPI and Fed-speak. In Europe, we’ll be watching out for the latest activity readings, and ECB and BOE speakers, as well as a central bank meeting in the Philippines. Chapters: US (01:49), Europe (06:22), Asia (10:31).
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The Week Ahead – Snaky Ways
Nomura – The Week Ahead
It’s been another big week, with the news on DeepSeek rattling global equity markets, led by the tech sector. The Fed’s on-hold decision came and went as expected, however we have made an important change to our Fed forecasts. Coming up, the US employment report will be key to watch, alongside hints on whether tariffs will soon be implemented. Elsewhere, we have the BOE decision where a cut is widely expected, while activity data in Europe could again remain weak. In Asia, the spotlight is on India with a likely pivotal central bank decision on tap, just a few days after the...
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The Week Ahead – One Week In
Nomura – The Week Ahead
We are only a few days into President Trump’s new term, but already there has been a lot of action. Over 25 executive orders have been signed, and we discuss what these might mean for the macro economic outlook. In Europe, we look at the likely 25bp cut by the ECB, signs of short-term positivity in the region and the possible response to Trump’s policies. Finally, we focus on how the latest developments impact China and what policy response, if any, is on its way. Chapters: US (01:53), Europe (07:31), Asia (10:32).
info_outlineHear from George Moran, Host & European Economist, David Seif, Chief Economist for Developed Markets, Andrzej Szczepaniak, Senior European Economist, and Yusuke Miyairi, FX Strategist, as they review the key market drivers over the week ahead. It's one of the busiest weeks on the podcast with the FOMC, BoE, BOJ, nonfarm payroll and top-tier data out of the Euro area.
Chapters: US (02:20), Europe (07:53), Asia (12:00)