The Year Ahead – US and Canada
Nomura – The Week Ahead
In the final instalment of our 2026 Outlook episodes, our Economists discuss the outlook and key risks for the US and Canada for the year ahead. We discuss the key drivers of our above consensus view on US growth, including fiscal support, diminishing trade risks, a rebounding labour market and strong consumer. We expect inflation to remain above target but think the Fed will cut twice in H2 under a new FOMC Chair.
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The Year Ahead – Europe & Türkiye
Nomura – The Week Ahead
In the third of our 2026 Outlook episodes, we discuss the focus on fiscal policy, disinflation pressures and the major risks to the region in the year ahead. In the Euro Area, we see growth accelerating with supportive fiscal policy, but limited inflation pressure and no ECB rate changes. In the UK, we still expect another rate cut and see significant disinflation in the months ahead, with political risks building later in 2026. We expect 1000bp of rate cuts in Türkiye as inflation falls from over 30% towards 20% and the real exchange rate appreciates.
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The Year Ahead – Japan
Nomura – The Week Ahead
In the second of our 2026 Outlook episodes, we focus on the year ahead outlook for Japan, which we expect to remain on a recovery path in 2026. Joined by guest speakers Yujiro Goto, Head of FX Strategy, Tomohaki Shishido, Senior Rate Strategist, and Tomochika Kitaoka, Chief Equity Strategist, our Economists share their top views on the economy, the risks to watch out for, and the implications on FX rates and equity markets.
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The Year Ahead – Asia: Mind The Gap
Nomura – The Week Ahead
In the first of our 2026 Outlook episodes, our Economists in Asia discuss Nomura’s key macro and market views for the region in the year ahead. In China, we discuss the “great divide” and the challenging backdrop for policy makers. For India, we expect another Goldilocks year, with strong cyclical growth, low inflation and another RBI rate cut. Across the broad region, we forecast a year of divergence, with technology and domestic demand divergences, creating leaders and laggards. We also welcome Craig Chan, our Global Head of FX Strategy, who outlines some thoughts on the US dollar,...
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The Week Ahead – Divided in December
Nomura – The Week Ahead
December seems to have been marked by dissents and divisions within and among central banks across the globe. We discuss the impact of the Fed’s cut on the US Dollar, as well as preview the upcoming jobs report and CPI data in the US after the government shutdown. We also preview our expectations of contrasting European Central Bank and Bank of England decisions, as well as Bank of Japan, Bank of Thailand, and Bank Indonesia meetings which are also set to deliver likely diverging decisions. Chapters: US: 02:13, Europe: 09:06, Japan: 14:15, Asia: 19:18.
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The Week Ahead – Fed Center
Nomura – The Week Ahead
The Fed is firmly priced for a cut on 10 December. We preview the upcoming Fed meeting, risks, and discuss the board’s potential composition in 2026. We speak with Yujiro Goto, Head of Japan FX Strategy, on how the Bank of Japan’s rate pricing is evolving, and more broadly in Asia, we then discuss our 2026 outlook for the region. In Europe, the SNB is in focus alongside UK data and Scandinavian inflation.
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The Week Ahead – Giving Thanks
Nomura – The Week Ahead
Equity markets and risk assets have had a couple of positive days this week, underwritten by the technology sector and by growing market expectations that the Fed will deliver a rate cut on 10th December. With this in mind, we discuss the Fed outlook and the latest US data, with US data taps turning back on post the government shutdown. In Europe, our focus is on inflation data and the UK budget. In Asia, we focus on the Reserve Bank of India policy meeting next week, India’s macro outlook, and key data coming out across the region. Chapters: 01:52, Europe: 09:16, Asia: 14:44.
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The Week Ahead – Foggy and Frothy
Nomura – The Week Ahead
It’s been a roller coaster ride in equity markets this week, coinciding with the release of the long-awaited US jobs report. We discuss why we see the US jobs report as mixed, but supportive of our forecast that the Fed will pause in December. All eyes will be on the UK budget and why the fiscal tightening will be modestly backloaded. In Asia, the focus is on Q3 GDP growth in India, and we deep-dive on South Korea to discuss the hawkish hold we expect from the Bank of Korea next week, as well as Korea’s two supercycles.
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The Week Ahead – Open For Business
Nomura – The Week Ahead
The news of the week is confirmation of the end of the US government shutdown. In the US, we examine the coming dataflow as the government reopens and the outlook for Fed funds. Across Europe and Japan, there will be no shortage of data to look at next week. We discuss the inflation report in the UK, growth and inflation in Japan, and the Bank Indonesia policy meeting. Chapters: 01:27, Europe: 07:22, Japan: 12:45, Asia: 17:12.
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The Week Ahead – Bubbles Bursting?
Nomura – The Week Ahead
With equity markets and tech stocks wobbling, we welcome guest speaker, Charlie McElligott, Cross-Asset Macro Strategist at Nomura, to discuss what is driving equity markets and what to watch in terms of “bubble risk”. In the week ahead, politics is still front and center in the US. We discuss the impact of the ongoing shutdown and tariffs. In Europe, we explain how we are viewing the next steps in the UK following the Bank of England’s decision, and look briefly at Scandinavian divergence. In Asia, we explore how the region’s trade deals with the US are evolving. Chapters: Markets...
info_outlineWe are only a few days into President Trump’s new term, but already there has been a lot of action. Over 25 executive orders have been signed, and we discuss what these might mean for the macro economic outlook. In Europe, we look at the likely 25bp cut by the ECB, signs of short-term positivity in the region and the possible response to Trump’s policies. Finally, we focus on how the latest developments impact China and what policy response, if any, is on its way. Chapters: US (01:53), Europe (07:31), Asia (10:32).