The Week Ahead - Back with a Bang
Nomura – The Week Ahead
We discuss US geopolitical developments and their potential economic impact, as well as the latest employment and inflation data. The Bank of Korea is likely to leave rates unchanged in January, but we also outline our more hawkish view for the 2026. In Europe, we preview the UK data releases, review euro area inflation and discuss prospects for closer UK-EU relations. Chapters: US: 02:10, Korea and Asia: 09:45, Europe: 15:55.
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The Year Ahead – US and Canada
Nomura – The Week Ahead
In the final instalment of our 2026 Outlook episodes, our Economists discuss the outlook and key risks for the US and Canada for the year ahead. We discuss the key drivers of our above consensus view on US growth, including fiscal support, diminishing trade risks, a rebounding labour market and strong consumer. We expect inflation to remain above target but think the Fed will cut twice in H2 under a new FOMC Chair.
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The Year Ahead – Europe & Türkiye
Nomura – The Week Ahead
In the third of our 2026 Outlook episodes, we discuss the focus on fiscal policy, disinflation pressures and the major risks to the region in the year ahead. In the Euro Area, we see growth accelerating with supportive fiscal policy, but limited inflation pressure and no ECB rate changes. In the UK, we still expect another rate cut and see significant disinflation in the months ahead, with political risks building later in 2026. We expect 1000bp of rate cuts in Türkiye as inflation falls from over 30% towards 20% and the real exchange rate appreciates.
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The Year Ahead – Japan
Nomura – The Week Ahead
In the second of our 2026 Outlook episodes, we focus on the year ahead outlook for Japan, which we expect to remain on a recovery path in 2026. Joined by guest speakers Yujiro Goto, Head of FX Strategy, Tomohaki Shishido, Senior Rate Strategist, and Tomochika Kitaoka, Chief Equity Strategist, our Economists share their top views on the economy, the risks to watch out for, and the implications on FX rates and equity markets.
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The Year Ahead – Asia: Mind The Gap
Nomura – The Week Ahead
In the first of our 2026 Outlook episodes, our Economists in Asia discuss Nomura’s key macro and market views for the region in the year ahead. In China, we discuss the “great divide” and the challenging backdrop for policy makers. For India, we expect another Goldilocks year, with strong cyclical growth, low inflation and another RBI rate cut. Across the broad region, we forecast a year of divergence, with technology and domestic demand divergences, creating leaders and laggards. We also welcome Craig Chan, our Global Head of FX Strategy, who outlines some thoughts on the US dollar,...
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The Week Ahead – Divided in December
Nomura – The Week Ahead
December seems to have been marked by dissents and divisions within and among central banks across the globe. We discuss the impact of the Fed’s cut on the US Dollar, as well as preview the upcoming jobs report and CPI data in the US after the government shutdown. We also preview our expectations of contrasting European Central Bank and Bank of England decisions, as well as Bank of Japan, Bank of Thailand, and Bank Indonesia meetings which are also set to deliver likely diverging decisions. Chapters: US: 02:13, Europe: 09:06, Japan: 14:15, Asia: 19:18.
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The Week Ahead – Fed Center
Nomura – The Week Ahead
The Fed is firmly priced for a cut on 10 December. We preview the upcoming Fed meeting, risks, and discuss the board’s potential composition in 2026. We speak with Yujiro Goto, Head of Japan FX Strategy, on how the Bank of Japan’s rate pricing is evolving, and more broadly in Asia, we then discuss our 2026 outlook for the region. In Europe, the SNB is in focus alongside UK data and Scandinavian inflation.
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The Week Ahead – Giving Thanks
Nomura – The Week Ahead
Equity markets and risk assets have had a couple of positive days this week, underwritten by the technology sector and by growing market expectations that the Fed will deliver a rate cut on 10th December. With this in mind, we discuss the Fed outlook and the latest US data, with US data taps turning back on post the government shutdown. In Europe, our focus is on inflation data and the UK budget. In Asia, we focus on the Reserve Bank of India policy meeting next week, India’s macro outlook, and key data coming out across the region. Chapters: 01:52, Europe: 09:16, Asia: 14:44.
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The Week Ahead – Foggy and Frothy
Nomura – The Week Ahead
It’s been a roller coaster ride in equity markets this week, coinciding with the release of the long-awaited US jobs report. We discuss why we see the US jobs report as mixed, but supportive of our forecast that the Fed will pause in December. All eyes will be on the UK budget and why the fiscal tightening will be modestly backloaded. In Asia, the focus is on Q3 GDP growth in India, and we deep-dive on South Korea to discuss the hawkish hold we expect from the Bank of Korea next week, as well as Korea’s two supercycles.
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The Week Ahead – Open For Business
Nomura – The Week Ahead
The news of the week is confirmation of the end of the US government shutdown. In the US, we examine the coming dataflow as the government reopens and the outlook for Fed funds. Across Europe and Japan, there will be no shortage of data to look at next week. We discuss the inflation report in the UK, growth and inflation in Japan, and the Bank Indonesia policy meeting. Chapters: 01:27, Europe: 07:22, Japan: 12:45, Asia: 17:12.
info_outlineMarket participants continue to grapple with a very high degree of uncertainty which is starting to have real economic consequences. The week ahead should be very interesting with key central bank decisions, and we could get some guidance on how policymakers think about and deal with the uncertainty, particularly from rising global trade tensions. We share our expectations for an on-hold decision at the upcoming FOMC meeting, and for the Fed’s tone to continue to emphasize patience. We also expect a pause from the BOE’s cutting cycle. Lastly, we discuss why communication is a bigger focus this time from the BOJ’s meeting where a skip in the hiking cycle is widely expected. Chapters: US (01:53), Europe (10:39), Japan (16:43), Asia (21:22).