How to Improve Strategic Thinking Skills
Killer Innovations with Phil McKinney
Release Date: 04/22/2025
Killer Innovations with Phil McKinney
In 2005, I had a ten-minute conversation at San Jose Airport that generated billions in revenue for HP. But here's what's fascinating: three other HP executives heard the exact same conversation and saw nothing special about it. If you read Monday's Studio Notes, you know this story from the emotional side—what it felt like to have that breakthrough moment, the internal resistance I faced, the personal transformation that followed. Today I'm delivering on my promise to give you the complete tactical methodology behind that insight. I'm going to show you the systematic framework I call...
info_outlineKiller Innovations with Phil McKinney
In October 1903, The New York Times published an editorial mocking the idea of human flight, stating that a successful flying machine might take "from one to ten million years" to develop through the efforts of mathematicians and engineers. Eight weeks later, on December 17, 1903, the Wright brothers achieved the first powered, controlled flight over the beaches of Kitty Hawk, North Carolina, proving the skeptics wrong. The smartest people in the world got this catastrophically wrong. What does that tell us about impossibility itself? Every industry has billion-dollar opportunities...
info_outlineKiller Innovations with Phil McKinney
Your best innovation ideas aren't losing to bad ideas – they're losing to exhaustion. I know that sounds counterintuitive. After 30 years of making decisions at HP and CableLabs, I thought I understood why good ideas failed. Market timing. Technical challenges. Resource constraints. Sometimes that was the case … but most of the time, I was wrong. We've created an innovation economy that's too innovative to innovate. And if you're wondering why your breakthrough ideas keep getting ignored, dismissed, or tabled "for later review," this video will show you the real reason. I'm going to...
info_outlineKiller Innovations with Phil McKinney
A software engineer grabbed a random word from a dictionary – "beehive" – and within hours designed an algorithm that saved his company millions. While his colleagues were working harder, he was thinking differently. This breakthrough didn't come from luck. It came from lateral thinking – a systematic approach to finding solutions hiding in plain sight. I'm Phil McKinney and welcome to my Innovation Studio. In this episode, we will cover the lateral thinking framework. Not theory – a practical, step-by-step system you can use immediately. You'll try your first technique in the next...
info_outlineKiller Innovations with Phil McKinney
The most popular piece of innovation advice in Silicon Valley is wrong—and it's killing great ideas before they have a chance to succeed. I can prove it with a story about a glass of water that sat perfectly still while a car bounced beneath it. My name is Phil McKinney. I spent decades as HP's CTO making billion-dollar innovation decisions, and I learned the hard way that following "fail fast" advice cost us billions and robbed the world of breakthrough technologies. Today, I'm going to share five specific signs that indicate when an idea deserves patience instead of being killed...
info_outlineKiller Innovations with Phil McKinney
Innovation partnerships can create breakthrough markets—or hand them to competitors through terrible decisions. I know because I lived through both outcomes. Bill Geiser from Fossil and I had it exactly right. We built the MetaWatch—a smartwatch with week-long battery life, Bluetooth connectivity, and every feature that would later make the Apple Watch successful. We had HP's massive retail reach, Fossil's manufacturing scale, and the technical vision to create an entirely new market. But our organizations couldn't execute on what we knew was right. Leadership chaos at HP and innovation...
info_outlineKiller Innovations with Phil McKinney
You know that moment when you walk into a meeting and immediately sense the mood in the room? Or when a proposal looks perfect on paper, but something feels off? That's your intuition working—and it's more sophisticated than most people realize. Every leader has experienced this: sensing which team member to approach with a sensitive request before you've consciously analyzed the personalities involved. Knowing a client is about to object even when they haven't voiced concerns. Feeling that a project timeline is unrealistic before you've done the detailed math. That instinctive awareness...
info_outlineKiller Innovations with Phil McKinney
The $25 Million Perfect Presentation Picture this: You're in a conference room with 23 executives, everyone has perfect PowerPoint presentations, engineering milestones are ahead of schedule, and you're about to sign off on a $25 million bet that feels like a sure thing. That was the scene at HP when we were developing the Envy 133—the world's first 100% carbon fiber laptop. Everything looked perfect: engineering was ahead of schedule, we projected a $2 billion market opportunity, and the presentations were flawless. Six weeks after launch, Apple shifted the entire thin-and-light laptop...
info_outlineKiller Innovations with Phil McKinney
Every breakthrough innovation starts the same way: everyone thinks it's a terrible idea. Twitter was dismissed as "breakfast updates." Google looked "too simple." Facebook seemed limited to "just college kids." Yet these "stupid ideas" became some of the biggest winners in tech history. After 30 years making innovation decisions at Fortune 100 companies, I've identified why smart people consistently miss breakthrough opportunities—and how to spot them before everyone else does. Why Smart People Miss Breakthrough Ideas The problem isn't intelligence or experience. It's that we ask the wrong...
info_outlineKiller Innovations with Phil McKinney
In 2011, HP killed a $1.2 billion innovation in just 49 days. I was the Chief Technology Officer who recommended buying it. What happened next reveals why smart people consistently destroy breakthrough technology—and the systematic framework you need to avoid making the same mistake. HP had just spent $1.2 billion acquiring Palm to get WebOS—one of the most advanced mobile operating systems ever created. It had true multitasking when iOS and Android couldn't handle it, an elegant interface design, and breakthrough platform technology. I led the technical due diligence and recommended the...
info_outlineMost people react to change. They adapt, adjust, and scramble to keep up. But a small group sees change coming. They prepare for it, shape it, and position themselves to win. Their edge? Strategic thinking skills.
In this article, you'll learn six powerful strategic thinking skills and five proven exercises to sharpen your thinking, decision, and act. You'll move from reacting to shaping. From being caught off guard to staying three moves ahead.
Let's build the mental toolkit that visionary leaders use to navigate uncertainty—and turn disruption into opportunity.
What Makes a Mindset Strategic?
Strategic thinking isn't about obsessing over efficiency or micromanaging tactics. It's about seeing the big picture, anticipating what's next, and setting direction when others stall. Strategic thinkers operate with four key traits:
- Long-term orientation – They think in years, not days.
- Pattern recognition – They connect signals others miss.
- Comfort with uncertainty – They decide with incomplete data.
- Proactivity – They shape the game, not just play it.
That mindset lays the foundation. Now, let's break down the six core strategic thinking skills.
6 Essential Strategic Thinking Skills
1. Ask "And Then What?"
Second-order thinking separates amateurs from pros. Don't just consider immediate consequences—look downstream. What happens next? What unintended effects might show up later?
Netflix mastered this. Studios focused on short-term streaming revenue. Netflix saw user data as leverage for producing original content—and flipped the game.
2. Think in Probabilities, Not Certainties
Ask, "What's the chance this works?" instead of "Will this work?" Keep a decision journal. Estimate outcomes. Then, reflect and recalibrate. That's how you develop judgment.
3. Weigh Opportunity Costs
Every yes is a no to something else. Strategic thinkers force themselves to list three alternatives they're giving up before choosing a path. That habit exposes trade-offs others miss.
4. Use Inversion
Flip the question. Ask, "How might this fail?" Use pre-mortems before major projects. Thinking like this isn't pessimism—it's prevention.
5. Envision Multiple Futures
Don't chase predictions. Instead, map out a few plausible future scenarios. Prepare for each. That's how you build flexibility into your strategy.
6. Strip Down to First Principles
Start from what you know to be true. Then, build up. Forget how it's "always been done." That's how Elon Musk questioned the high cost of rockets—and built SpaceX.
5 Exercises to Strengthen Your Strategic Thinking
- Pre-Mortem – Identify failure scenarios before you start.
- 10/10/10 Test – Ask how a decision will feel in 10 minutes, 10 months, and 10 years.
- Future-Back Planning – Start with your desired outcome and work backward.
- Perspective Shifting – Analyze decisions from multiple points of view.
- Strategic Questioning – Use prompts like "What would change my mind?" or "What's the non-obvious move?"
These sharpen your thinking. Repetition turns them into instinct.
Make Strategic Thinking a Daily Habit
You don't need hours. One thoughtful decision a day is enough to start. Try this:
- Create mental triggers. Pause when you feel rushed.
- Partner with someone who thinks differently.
- Schedule 15 minutes a week to think long-term.
- Reflect after decisions. Note what worked—and what didn't.
Over time, you'll default to asking better questions and spotting better options. That's the real power of strategic thinking skills.
One Skill. One Decision. One Advantage.
You don't need to master everything overnight. Just choose one skill. Apply it to one big decision this week. Watch what changes.
Strategic thinking isn't just for CEOs—it's for anyone who wants to stop reacting and start shaping their future.
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