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How to Improve Strategic Thinking Skills

Killer Innovations with Phil McKinney

Release Date: 04/22/2025

Second-Order Thinking: How to Stop Your Decisions From Creating Bigger Problems (Thinking 101 - Ep 6) show art Second-Order Thinking: How to Stop Your Decisions From Creating Bigger Problems (Thinking 101 - Ep 6)

Killer Innovations with Phil McKinney

In August 2025, Polish researchers tested something nobody had thought to check: what happens to doctors' skills after they rely on AI assistance? The AI worked perfectly—catching problems during colonoscopies, flagging abnormalities faster than human eyes could. But when researchers pulled the AI away, the doctors' detection rates had dropped. They'd become less skilled at spotting problems on their own. We're all making decisions like this right now. A solution fixes the immediate problem—but creates a second-order consequence that's harder to see and often more damaging than what we...

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Killer Innovations with Phil McKinney

You're frozen. The deadline's approaching. You don't have all the data. Everyone wants certainty. You can't give it. Sound familiar? Maybe it's a hiring decision with three qualified candidates and red flags on each one. Or a product launch where the market research is mixed. Or a career pivot where you can't predict which path leads where. You want more information. More time. More certainty. But you're not going to get it. Meanwhile, a small group of professionals—poker players, venture capitalists, military strategists—consistently make better decisions than the rest of us in exactly...

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Killer Innovations with Phil McKinney

Try to go through a day without using an analogy. I guarantee you'll fail within an hour. Your morning coffee tastes like yesterday's batch. Traffic is moving like molasses. Your boss sounds like a broken record. Every comparison you make—every single one—is your brain's way of understanding the world. You can't turn it off. When someone told you ChatGPT is "like having a smart assistant," your brain immediately knew what to expect—and what to worry about. When Netflix called itself "the HBO of streaming," investors understood the strategy instantly. These comparisons aren't just...

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Killer Innovations with Phil McKinney

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Killer Innovations with Phil McKinney

You see a headline: "Study Shows Coffee Drinkers Live Longer." You share it in 3 seconds flat. But here's what just happened—you confused correlation with causation, inductive observation with deductive proof, and you just became a vector for misinformation. Right now, millions of people are doing the exact same thing, spreading beliefs they think are facts, making decisions based on patterns that don't exist, all while feeling absolutely certain they're thinking clearly.   We live in a world drowning in information—but starving for truth. Every day, you're presented with hundreds of...

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Killer Innovations with Phil McKinney

The Crisis We're Not Talking About We're living through the greatest thinking crisis in human history—and most people don't even realize it's happening. Right now, AI generates your answers before you've finished asking the question. Search engines remember everything so you don't have to. Algorithms curate your reality, telling you what to think before you've had the chance to think for yourself. We've built the most sophisticated cognitive tools humanity has ever known, and in doing so, we've systematically dismantled our ability to use our own minds. A recent MIT study found that students...

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Killer Innovations with Phil McKinney

Most innovation leaders are performing someone else's version of innovation thinking. I've spent decades in this field. Worked with Fortune 100 companies. And here's what I see happening everywhere. Brilliant leaders following external frameworks. Copying methodologies from people they admire. Shifting their approach based on whatever's trendy. But they never develop their own innovation thinking skills. Today, I'd like to share a simple practice that has transformed my life. And I'll show you exactly how I do it. The Problem Here's what I see in corporate America. Leaders are reacting to...

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Killer Innovations with Phil McKinney

Michael Dell and his investors spent twenty-five billion dollars to buy back Dell Technologies. But they weren't really buying a company. They were buying freedom from quarterly earnings pressure. I'm Phil McKinney, former CTO of Hewlett-Packard, and I witnessed how this pressure shaped decisions for years. Today, we are exploring why the misses what actually happens inside corporate boardrooms. The Reality of Quarterly Pressure I want to show you what quarterly reporting actually looks like from the inside. Let me paint you a picture. It's week seven of the quarter, and you're in a...

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Killer Innovations with Phil McKinney

What if I told you that the people who disagree with you are actually your secret weapon for better thinking?  Just last month, my wife and I had a heated argument about studio changes I wanted to make here on the ranch. Her immediate reaction was about cost. Mine was about productivity and creativity. We were talking past each other completely. But when I applied what I'm about to teach you, we discovered we were both right—and found a solution that addressed both concerns without compromising either. What started as an argument became a session where each of us was heard and...

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Killer Innovations with Phil McKinney

In 2005, I had a ten-minute conversation at San Jose Airport that generated billions in revenue for HP. But here's what's fascinating: three other HP executives heard the exact same conversation and saw nothing special about it. If you read Monday's Studio Notes, you know this story from the emotional side—what it felt like to have that breakthrough moment, the internal resistance I faced, the personal transformation that followed. Today I'm delivering on my promise to give you the complete tactical methodology behind that insight. I'm going to show you the systematic framework I call...

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Most people react to change. They adapt, adjust, and scramble to keep up. But a small group sees change coming. They prepare for it, shape it, and position themselves to win. Their edge? Strategic thinking skills.

In this article, you'll learn six powerful strategic thinking skills and five proven exercises to sharpen your thinking, decision, and act. You'll move from reacting to shaping. From being caught off guard to staying three moves ahead.

Let's build the mental toolkit that visionary leaders use to navigate uncertainty—and turn disruption into opportunity.

What Makes a Mindset Strategic?

Strategic thinking isn't about obsessing over efficiency or micromanaging tactics. It's about seeing the big picture, anticipating what's next, and setting direction when others stall. Strategic thinkers operate with four key traits:

- Long-term orientation – They think in years, not days.

- Pattern recognition – They connect signals others miss.

- Comfort with uncertainty – They decide with incomplete data.

- Proactivity – They shape the game, not just play it.

That mindset lays the foundation. Now, let's break down the six core strategic thinking skills.

6 Essential Strategic Thinking Skills

1. Ask "And Then What?"

Second-order thinking separates amateurs from pros. Don't just consider immediate consequences—look downstream. What happens next? What unintended effects might show up later?

Netflix mastered this. Studios focused on short-term streaming revenue. Netflix saw user data as leverage for producing original content—and flipped the game.

2. Think in Probabilities, Not Certainties

Ask, "What's the chance this works?" instead of "Will this work?" Keep a decision journal. Estimate outcomes. Then, reflect and recalibrate. That's how you develop judgment.

3. Weigh Opportunity Costs

Every yes is a no to something else. Strategic thinkers force themselves to list three alternatives they're giving up before choosing a path. That habit exposes trade-offs others miss.

4. Use Inversion

Flip the question. Ask, "How might this fail?" Use pre-mortems before major projects. Thinking like this isn't pessimism—it's prevention.

5. Envision Multiple Futures

Don't chase predictions. Instead, map out a few plausible future scenarios. Prepare for each. That's how you build flexibility into your strategy.

6. Strip Down to First Principles

Start from what you know to be true. Then, build up. Forget how it's "always been done." That's how Elon Musk questioned the high cost of rockets—and built SpaceX.

5 Exercises to Strengthen Your Strategic Thinking

  • Pre-Mortem – Identify failure scenarios before you start.
  • 10/10/10 Test – Ask how a decision will feel in 10 minutes, 10 months, and 10 years.
  • Future-Back Planning – Start with your desired outcome and work backward.
  • Perspective Shifting – Analyze decisions from multiple points of view.
  • Strategic Questioning – Use prompts like "What would change my mind?" or "What's the non-obvious move?"

These sharpen your thinking. Repetition turns them into instinct.

Make Strategic Thinking a Daily Habit

You don't need hours. One thoughtful decision a day is enough to start. Try this:

  • Create mental triggers. Pause when you feel rushed.
  • Partner with someone who thinks differently.
  • Schedule 15 minutes a week to think long-term.
  • Reflect after decisions. Note what worked—and what didn't.

Over time, you'll default to asking better questions and spotting better options. That's the real power of strategic thinking skills.

One Skill. One Decision. One Advantage.

You don't need to master everything overnight. Just choose one skill. Apply it to one big decision this week. Watch what changes.

Strategic thinking isn't just for CEOs—it's for anyone who wants to stop reacting and start shaping their future.

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