QT Tapering For Dummie (and you, too!)
The Rate Guy
On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss the most overlooked takeaways from the Fed meeting, QT tapering, how the 10T is affected and what the jobs report is telling us. To check out the graphs referenced read the Pensford Newsletter .
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15 Years Flies When You're Having Fun
The Rate Guy
Happy 15 years to Pensford! On this episode of The Rate Guy we take a walk down memory lane with JP. Hearing about the times he thought Pensford was going under, where the name comes from, our competitors and most importantly our team. If you want to skip the story and get straight to the FOMC meeting, inflation and jobs talk, fast forward to the 32 minute mark. Thanks to everyone for your support. Here's to the next 15!
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Premature Pivot 2.0
The Rate Guy
On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss why we should not be freaking out over inflation, why JP still things the Fed is cutting, how transportation costs have affected Supercore and which direction wage growth is trending. Check out the for graphs/links referenced. And for those interested in checking out JP's Eagles Spite Site. Here you go! https://howiecantdraft.com/
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Premature Pivot
The Rate Guy
On this episode of The Rate Guy, we dive into the latest economic data releases and what they reveal about the current state of inflation and monetary policy. We'll break down the recent CPI and PPI figures, discuss what move Powell may regret, what the Fed might do from here, and analyze the potential impact. For those that want to check out more about SF Fed official Adam Shapiro's graph illustrating demand vs supply components of inflation... To view the graphs referenced, check out the latest .
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Labor Market Strength or Just Different?
The Rate Guy
On this episode of The Rate Guy, we tackle the unexpected fallout from last week's April Fools' joke podcast/newsletter that sent rates soaring. IT WAS A JOKE, PEOPLE! We'll dissect recent labor market reports, if Chief U.S. Economist could be right about the high end of unemployment, the impact of fiscal stimulus, and what the Beveridge Curve tells us about job openings versus unemployment. We explore Fed Chair Powell's latest comments, the role of immigration and part-time work in today's economy, and the looming question: Is the current economic strength sustainable...
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I Change My Mind
The Rate Guy
On this episode of The Rate Guy, JP recognizes the errors of his ways and faces all of the things he's been looking at totally wrong. Want to read as well? Check out his .
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Fed Primer
The Rate Guy
On this episode of The Rate Guy, we're tackling the latest on the Fed, the surprising bank funding stats, and what it all means for the economy. We’ll break down this week’s keyand what they signal for future rate cuts. Plus, we’re setting the scene for our big quarterly webinar and the Fed meeting. Tune in for a clear-ish take on where we’re at and where we might be heading. Want to subscribe to the Pensford Newsletter? - Register to attend Pensford's quarterly markets and interest rate update on March 21st, 2024 at 1:00pm EDT.
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Lies, Damned Lies and Jobs
The Rate Guy
For this nerdy episode of The Rate Guy podcast you can thank Nathan from Dallas for inspiring JP to fall down a jobs rabbit hole! We'll talk BLS, BEA, birth/death adjustment and dissect the overstated strength of the current job market challenging the "red hot" labor market narrative. We will also touch on what you may be overlooking when it comes to inflation. (hint, it's something we haven't seen since the financial crisis) To read the newsletter in all it's graph laden glory click
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Bunch of BLS
The Rate Guy
On this episode of the Rate Guy we discuss the crazy email sent out to super users by the BLS, what we saw from the 10T last week and of course, much to J Mo's joy, inflation.
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January Data A Trend Does Not Make
The Rate Guy
On this episode of The Rate Guy you'll get some knowledge dropped on you about leap year date quirk and how it creates data challenges, a fun fact about Warren Buffet, and what everyone is keeping their eye on...inflation. We discuss how January data is always hot and suggest pumping the breaks on the sky is falling outlook until we see more data. To subscribe to JP's weekly Pensford newsletter, click
info_outlineOn this week's episode of The Rate Guy we dive into big headlines. The 10 Year Treasury's flirting with 5%, GDP, Inflation, Oil, a looming recession and how that won't be enough for the Fed to start cutting...especially when they're working off stale a$$ data. Politics also got spicy with a near shutdown, but with it staying open we'll get the Jobs report and more importantly, JP will get his JOLTS report that he so loves!
If you missed our Q3 Interest Rate webinar here is the link! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8js3C0zyUiQ