DOJ Plans to Indict Powell
The Rate Guy
We know this is a little early to call, but this will be the most important episode of the year. So if you listen to nothing else, listen to this one. Shocking news came out late Sunday night. This has literally never happened since the existence of the Federal Reserve. The Department of Justice served the Federal Reserve with grand jury subpoenas, threatening a criminal indictment related to Jerome Powell's testimony before the Senate Banking Committee last June. In this episode we discuss the historical impact of this move and the impact it may have. We also reveal something that had JP...
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J-Money's Last Rate Cut?
The Rate Guy
On this special episode of The Rate Guy, we examine today's Fed meeting, the dissents, the jobs realization, J Powell's press conference and what it all means for current market conditions and in 2026.
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A Cut This Week But None Next Year?
The Rate Guy
On this episode of The Rate Guy, JP draws a parallel between the Penn State and Fed search for their next leader. Then we jump into what to expect at this week's meeting and a quick look ahead to next year's rate expectations. We'll be back Wednesday for a recap of the Fed meeting. For those that are curious...here's the calendar reminder screenshot. (if I could insert a facepalm emoji here I would)
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My Thanksgiving List - Markets Edition
The Rate Guy
On this episdoe of The Rate Guy, in the spirit of Thanksgiving, JP runs through a variety of things he's thankful for with his mix of sincerity and sarcasm that we all know and love. Check out the fancy Private Social Club that we talk about and visited in Atlanta, The Perlant, . If you want to see Philly Elementary kids go off on Dallas player themed heavy bags (yeah, you read that right) click Hope you all have a great Holiday this week!
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I Love the Smell of Capitalism in the Morning
The Rate Guy
On this episode of The Rate Guy, we talk about JP’s love of all things Texas (well, maybe not the lobster mac & cheese), dig into the latest private-sector jobs data, and break down where we see interest rates heading in 2026 — plus why the impact on the 10T looks completely binary.
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Quick Fed Meeting Take Aways
The Rate Guy
On this special edition episode of The Rate Guy we recap today's Fed meeting and analyze Powell's surprising remarks and what to be on the look out for in the week ahead. See you on 11/10! Here is the in the Pensford Newsletter.
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The Fed Might Not Cut At All in 2026
The Rate Guy
On this episode of The Rate Guy we break down the NBA betting scandal because apparently, Chauncey Billups was the big draw. Really? Plus, why Terry Rozier became the most bet-on player in America and what the NBA’s “thorough investigation” didn’t find. Then we pivot to the Fed: a 25bp cut is coming, but what happens next? We walk through four possible rate paths for 2026, from holding steady to cutting below 3%, and what each means for borrowers. We also talk about the impact on fixed rates, swaps and caps.
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What Pushes the 10T to 3.62%
The Rate Guy
On this epidode of The Rate Guy we’re breaking down this Thursday’s CPI release — why the market will probably react even though it’s full of noise, what could drive the 10-year Treasury to 3.62%, and the one signal that could tell us the Fed won’t cut rates at the next meeting.
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The Fed Will Cut Even if the Govt is Still Shut Down
The Rate Guy
On this episode of The Rate Guy we answer the question we've gotten a lot this week..."If the Federal government is still shut down on Oct. 29, will the Fed meet and make a decision about rates?" We answer that and many more about how Fed cuts will effect the 10 year treasury and why the US is still the world's mattress.
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Introducing the PLS…Pensford Labor Statistics!
The Rate Guy
On this episode of The Rate Guy we explore the private data sources around the job market and what they might mean in the absence of official government statistics. We also talk about projected rate cuts and when they will likely happen. For those of you that want to read along with the stats here is the And to see what JP's been up to in his spare time check out
info_outlineOn this episode of The Rate Guy, we break down the latest jobs report. We unpack what the numbers really signal, what that means for inflation, and why the Fed isn’t reaching for the rate cut lever just yet. Plus, you know we have to talk about what went down this past week; a Twitter showdown for the ages. Buckle up.