I Love the Smell of Capitalism in the Morning
The Rate Guy
On this episode of The Rate Guy, we talk about JP’s love of all things Texas (well, maybe not the lobster mac & cheese), dig into the latest private-sector jobs data, and break down where we see interest rates heading in 2026 — plus why the impact on the 10T looks completely binary.
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Quick Fed Meeting Take Aways
The Rate Guy
On this special edition episode of The Rate Guy we recap today's Fed meeting and analyze Powell's surprising remarks and what to be on the look out for in the week ahead. See you on 11/10! Here is the in the Pensford Newsletter.
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The Fed Might Not Cut At All in 2026
The Rate Guy
On this episode of The Rate Guy we break down the NBA betting scandal because apparently, Chauncey Billups was the big draw. Really? Plus, why Terry Rozier became the most bet-on player in America and what the NBA’s “thorough investigation” didn’t find. Then we pivot to the Fed: a 25bp cut is coming, but what happens next? We walk through four possible rate paths for 2026, from holding steady to cutting below 3%, and what each means for borrowers. We also talk about the impact on fixed rates, swaps and caps.
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What Pushes the 10T to 3.62%
The Rate Guy
On this epidode of The Rate Guy we’re breaking down this Thursday’s CPI release — why the market will probably react even though it’s full of noise, what could drive the 10-year Treasury to 3.62%, and the one signal that could tell us the Fed won’t cut rates at the next meeting.
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The Fed Will Cut Even if the Govt is Still Shut Down
The Rate Guy
On this episode of The Rate Guy we answer the question we've gotten a lot this week..."If the Federal government is still shut down on Oct. 29, will the Fed meet and make a decision about rates?" We answer that and many more about how Fed cuts will effect the 10 year treasury and why the US is still the world's mattress.
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Introducing the PLS…Pensford Labor Statistics!
The Rate Guy
On this episode of The Rate Guy we explore the private data sources around the job market and what they might mean in the absence of official government statistics. We also talk about projected rate cuts and when they will likely happen. For those of you that want to read along with the stats here is the And to see what JP's been up to in his spare time check out
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The Aftermath of the Fed Meeting
The Rate Guy
On this episode of The Rate Guy, we explore the aftermath of the Fed Meeting and break down how we think it will affect markets and how people are borrowing.
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7 Fed Members Thought They Wouldn't Be Cutting This Week
The Rate Guy
On this episode of The Rate Guy, JP unpacks the 911k job revision, rising jobless claims, and what it means for the Fed’s credibility. We dive into why the FOMC may already be behind the curve, what cuts are (and aren’t) on the table, and why markets are focused on 2026. We also touch on cap strategies and why negotiating those floors is so important. As promised here is the Cap/Floor Pricer from our website. https://www.pensford.com/resources/cap-and-floor-pricer
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Friday's Jobs Report Means The Fed is Already Behind the Curve
The Rate Guy
On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss jobs and the shocking data that came out last week and how that (and a few other factors) will influence the Fed with their decision on cutting rate next week.
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The Fed's Real Focus
The Rate Guy
On this episode of The Rate Guy we urge you to forget CPI—the Fed’s watching jobs. Unemployment at 4.2% isn’t the good news it looks like. We explain r*, clear up the natural vs. neutral rate confusion, and connect the dots from D.C.’s deficit and the 10 Yr Treasury.
info_outlineWe take one week off and everything goes haywire. What in the world?!
This week on The Rate Guy, we’re unpacking the chaos of last week, previewing a data-heavy week ahead, and digging into how markets and rates might respond.
Also, a heartfelt RIP to the icons we lost. Our childhood nostalgia definitely took a hit.