Anthropic at $1.2 Trillion, AMD's Blowout Quarter, and the PE-Backed AI Enterprise Play | Ep. 304
Release Date: 05/11/2026
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info_outlinePatrick Moorhead and Daniel Newman dig into the week's biggest moves in enterprise AI: Anthropic and OpenAI launching PE-backed enterprise JVs on the same day, Anthropic filling its compute gap with SpaceX's Colossus, Cerebris filing for a $3.5 billion IPO, NVIDIA going deep on co-packaged optics with Corning, and a full IBM Think and ServiceNow recap. Plus, for The Flip, hosts debate whether Anthropic, at $1.2 trillion, is the most important company in enterprise tech.
The handpicked topics for this week are:
1. Anthropic and OpenAI Launch PE-Backed Enterprise JVs on the Same Day — Both companies announced private equity joint ventures, with OpenAI backed by Bain, Brookfield, and Advent, and Anthropic partnering with Blackstone, Goldman Sachs, Apollo, and General Atlantic. Daniel's read is that this is fundamentally a distribution play, using private equity portfolio companies as a deployment channel for AI at scale. Pat sees it as the clearest admission yet that enterprise AI cannot be self-implemented at scale without specialized consulting support, and flags that mid-tier systems integrators (SIs) could get cut out of the middle. (The Decode)
2. Anthropic Signs Massive Compute Deal with SpaceX Colossus — Anthropic urgently needed compute and SpaceX had 300 megawatts and 220,000 GPUs sitting at Colossus One in Memphis without enough business to fill them. Pat's take is blunt: this move is pragmatic. Anthropic needs it, xAI has it. Daniel adds that Dario himself said they planned for 10x growth and got 80x, and this deal is the fast backfill that reality demanded. The side note both hosts flag: Anthropic is running on H100s, H200s, and B200s, which puts the whole "Anthropic only runs on Trainium and TPUs" narrative to rest. (The Decode)
3. Cerebris Files for a $3.5 Billion IPO at $26.6 Billion Valuation — This marks their second attempt at an IPO after pulling the first filing. The architecture is genuinely unique, a complete wafer with massive on-chip SRAM and interconnects built directly onto the wafer rather than copper or photonics. Pat calls it the first credible Western alternative for AI inference. Daniel's framing cuts through: you do not have to beat NVIDIA to sell right now. You just need to have availability. The more interesting headline, both hosts agree, is that Sam Altman and Greg Brockman are angel investors, which adds fuel to the ongoing OpenAI lawsuit. (The Decode)
4. NVIDIA and Corning Announce $500 Million Optical Partnership — Three new US factories, co-packaged optics for Vera Rubin, and a supply chain strategy that mirrors what NVIDIA did with Coherent. Pat's context: this is vertical integration through investment rather than acquisition. Daniel's observation is that the pace of movement toward co-packaged optics is accelerating faster than anyone expected, and his “rule of and” applies here too. Copper is not going away. Optics are being added on top because the data volumes moving across these racks are outrunning what copper alone can handle. US manufacturing in North Carolina and Texas is a strategic bonus. (The Decode)
5. IBM Think 2026: Day Zero, Sovereign Core, and the Quantum Plus AI Bet — Pat moderated on stage with CEO Arvind Krishna and calls this IBM's best showing in five years. Arvind opened with the AI divide, the gap between companies still running POCs and companies already in production, and framed where IBM sits as day zero, not because nothing has happened, but because enterprise AI deployment at scale is still so early. Daniel's biggest takeaways: watsonX Orchestrate updates, Sovereign Core going GA with policy at runtime, and the Confluent acquisition potentially being IBM's most important asset since Red Hat, given that 40% of Fortune 500 companies run on it and real-time streaming data is foundational to agentic systems. Both hosts land on quantum plus AI as IBM's next inflection moment. (The Decode)
6. ServiceNow Knowledge 2026: Enterprise SaaS 2.0 is Emerging — Daniel got there on day three of the event and noted the conference was densely packed. His observation: enterprises have not gotten the memo from Wall Street that SaaS is supposedly dead. His emerging thesis is that middleware could make a comeback for AI, with companies needing a layer that lets agents work across any infrastructure, any app, and within the rules of their specific business. Pat agrees and adds that the growth question is about mix, not survival. (The Decode)
7. The Flip: Is Anthropic at $1.2 Trillion the Most Important Company in Enterprise Tech? — Daniel took the affirmative citing that Claude Code is deeply entrenched in developer workflows. Anthropic went from $9 billion to $45 billion ARR in months. Every major hyperscaler is both a customer and an investor. The PE JVs are turning verticals into Anthropic engines. Dario said they planned for 10x and got 80x. Pat's counter: the enterprise trust gap is real after what Anthropic pulled on pricing and performance. Microsoft has 2 billion users across 365, Azure, and Copilot. NVIDIA is the infrastructure Anthropic runs on. And workforce replacement, which is how Anthropic extracts its terminal value, is not arriving as fast as the valuation suggests. In reality, both hosts admit their notes looked almost identical. (The Flip)
8. AMD — Lisa Su guided AI data center growth up from 60% to 80%. With OpEx growing 83%, net income up 95%, free cash flow ripping, and CPUs growing at nearly 40% without price increases, Pat reads this as unit market share gains coming soon. Daniel's framing: AMD is now a two-headed juggernaut with CPUs and GPUs for the data center. And Helios has not even started shipping yet. Both hosts take a victory lap for previously calling this one. (Bulls and Bears)
9. Palantir — Triple beat on revenue, EPS, and forward guidance. Rule of 40 at 145%. Government revenue up 84%, 47 deals over $10 million, and the largest guidance raise in the company's history. Daniel's take: Palantir is redefining the category entirely. It’s not a software company in the Salesforce or ServiceNow sense. It’s technology, plus ontology, plus people, deployed at the deepest layers inside governments and enterprises. Pat adds that the four deployed FTE model lets them stand up AIP POCs within a week, which is why they are winning business at this pace. (Bulls and Bears)
10. ARM — AGI processor demand doubled from $1 billion to $2 billion within 45 days. Record revenue, strong pipeline, royalty growth at 21% for the full year. The stock ripped after hours, then sold the next day when management confirmed only enough supply for $1 billion of that $2 billion demand. Pat's read: 50% CPU market share with hyperscalers at the core level is the most underdiscussed signal on the call. Daniel adds that the worry about ARM competing with its own customer base in custom silicon has been quietly swept away by the sheer volume of compute demand. (Bulls and Bears)
11. Supermicro — A board member allegedly used a hairdryer to remove labels from GPU boxes being shipped to China. Approximately 20% of their revenue has reportedly been illegally shipped to China. They beat on EPS and Q4 guide but missed Q3 revenue versus consensus. Stock still ripped 18%. Daniel's take: if you are selling picks and shovels during a gold rush and you are this messed up, he cannot imagine owning it with the overhang that is building. (Bulls and Bears)
12. Lattice Semi and Coherent — Lattice revenue up 42%, back into growth, guiding to 50% year-on-year at midpoint. The AMI acquisition at $1.65 billion doubles their serviceable market from $6 billion to $12 billion and puts them inside every AI server on the planet at the BIOS and platform firmware layer. Pat calls the timing right: core financials crushing it, time to make a move. Coherent printed 21% year-on-year growth, 55% EPS growth, margins expanding, debt coming down, entered the S&P 500, and sits at the center of the co-packaged optics trend that is accelerating. Pat's choke point note: Indium phosphide capacity is the constraint. Six-inch fabs are doubling capacity in 2026, a quarter ahead of plan, and competitors are still ramping their transitions. (Bulls and Bears)
Want the full breakdown from IBM Think and ServiceNow Knowledge, and check out our on-the-ground coverage linked in the show notes.
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Intro
Pat on Stage at IBM Think
https://x.com/PatrickMoorhead/status/2051381046537601101?s=20
The Decode
OpenAI and Anthropic Both Launch PE-Backed Enterprise Services JVs on the Same Day — The Palantir FDE Model Goes Mainstream
https://www.semafor.com/article/05/04/2026/openai-anthropic-ramp-up-enterprise-push
Anthropic and SpaceX Sign Massive Compute Deal — Full 300MW / 220,000 GPU Colossus 1 Memphis Data Center Plus Exploration of Multi-Gigawatt Orbital AI Compute
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/06/anthropic-spacex-data-center-capacity.html
Cerebras Files for $3.5B IPO at $26.6B Valuation — The First Major AI Chip IPO of 2026
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/04/cerebras-ipo-ai-chipmaker.html
https://www.briefs.co/news/ai-chipmaker-cerebras-just-filed-for-a-3-5-billion-ipo/
NVIDIA and Corning Announce Game-Changing Optical Partnership — $500M Investment, 3 New U.S. Factories, and Co-Packaged Optics for Vera Rubin and Beyond
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/06/nvidia-corning-optical-factories-nc-texas-ai.html
IBM Think 2026 Boston — Watsonx Orchestrate Next-Gen, Confluent Real-Time Data, IBM Concert, and Sovereign Core Define IBM’s Agentic Operating Model
https://www.ibm.com/new/announcements/ibm-announcements-at-think-2026
https://www.instagram.com/reel/DX42DlrglOs/
ServiceNow Knowledge 2026 Las Vegas
https://www.servicenow.com/events/knowledge.html
The Flip:
Anthropic at $1.2T Now the Most Important Company in Enterprise Tech — More Important Than NVIDIA, Microsoft, or OpenAI
FOR:
Dual-hyperscaler compute anchor (Amazon $33B + Google $40B = $73B) is structural — unmatched
Constitutional AI safety positioning wins regulated industries
https://www.anthropic.com/news/anthropic-nec-japan-ai-engineering-workforce
$900B valuation surpasses OpenAI ($852B) at faster revenue growth and lower burn rate
AGAINST:
NVIDIA still controls the substrate — every Anthropic dollar of revenue requires NVIDIA inference at some layer
Microsoft has the enterprise distribution — 365 + Azure + Copilot reach >2 billion users
https://www.marketbeat.com/originals/microsofts-maia-200-the-profit-engine-ai-needs/
$900B valuation is venture marketing — the IPO will reset the number
https://www.semafor.com/article/05/04/2026/openai-anthropic-ramp-up-enterprise-push
Bulls & Bears:
AMD Q1 2026 — Revenue $10.3B (+38% YoY), MI300X Data Center GPU Demand Drives Stock +20% on the Print
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/05/amd-q1-2026-earnings-report.html
https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/amd-q1-2026-earnings-revenue-203331768.html
Palantir Q1 2026 — Revenue +85% YoY, US Commercial +133%, Rule of 40 Score Hits 145%; Largest Guidance Raise in Company History
https://investors.palantir.com/files/Palantir%20-%20Q1%202026%20Business%20Update.pdf
https://www.reddit.com/r/PLTR/comments/1t3t0me/palantir_reports_q1_2026_us_revenue_growth_of_104/
https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/palantir-technologies-inc-q1-2026-002218719.html
https://semiconalpha.substack.com/p/palantir-q1-2026-rewriting-the-rule
Arm Holdings Q4 FY2026 — Record $1.49B Quarter, Full-Year Revenue Crosses $4.92B, $2B AGI CPU Pipeline; Stock +16% After Hours
https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/arm-q4-earnings-call-highlights-225942093.html
https://semiconalpha.substack.com/p/arm-q4-fy2026-record-quarter-2-billion
Super Micro Computer Q3 FY2026 — Revenue $10.2B (+123% YoY), Strong Q4 Guide; Stock +18% AH on First Earnings Call Since Co-Founder Indictment Drama
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/05/super-micro-smci-q3-earnings-report-2026.html
https://www.instagram.com/reel/DX42DlrglOs/
Lattice Semiconductor Q1 2026 — Beat-and-Raise Quarter ($170.9M, +42% YoY) Paired With $1.65B AMI Acquisition That Doubles Lattice’s SAM to $12B
https://www.stocktitan.net/sec-filings/LSCC/8-k-lattice-semiconductor-corp-reports-material-event-642a862b2bf9.html
https://www.ami.com/resources/ami-announces-agreement-to-be-acquired-by-lattice-semiconductor/
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/patmoorhead_lattice-semiconductor-posts-beat-and-raise-activity-7457411226944425984-xA8T
Coherent Q3 2026 Earnings