Al Gore says stop Australia's diesel fuel subsidy - Tim Buckley Ep62

Spark Club Podcast recorded on 31 October 2025

Highlights
BESS deployments booming in Australia

• Batteries are the biggest disruptive force in global energy markets in 2025. Australia becomes world’s third-largest utility battery market.
• Australia has overtaken the UK to rank behind China and the US in utility-scale battery capacity, with 14GW/37GWh of projects at or nearing financial close.
• Rystad Energy estimates the Australian pipeline of battery projects jumped 45GW in one year from 109GW in August 2024 to 154GW now.
• Meanwhile Minister Bowen is rightly crowing about the >100,000 home battery installs so far.
• Worth noting the world’s largest hybrid BESS by MASDAR in the UAE, a 5GW solar and 19GWh BESS designed to provide 1GW of 24/7 power supply commenced construction this week.
• And AEMO’s new 3Q2025 Quarterly Energy Dynamics report reveals that average wholesale electricity prices across the National Electricity Market, fell to $87/MWh, down 27% on the same quarter last year. AEMO says the surge in battery storage – up an average 461MW in the evening peaks – clearly had an impact on other peaking generation sources, with gas fired generation down 11%. All of these factors also helped the renewable share hit a new 3Q high of 42.7%, nearly 10% higher than the Q3 average of 39.3% last year. You’d never know this reading the mainstream climate science denialist media!
• AEMO’s Quarterly Energy dynamics report had great news for Minister Bowen. 

China

• The September 2025 electricity generation statistics for China show a ⬇️ 5.4% yoy decline in coal and gas generation for the September month, and a ⬇️ 1.2% yoy decline in the first nine months.
• And with cement production volumes -5.2% yoy YTD 2025, and crude steel volumes -2.9% yoy YTD 2025, that is consistent with Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA)'s suggestion that China's national emissions peaked back in March 2024.
• Rho Motion reports China's EV sales in the first nine months of 2025 are 9.0m, +24% yoy, largely in line with the global rate of +26% yoy (given China is 61% of global EV sales in 2025 YTD), while China's EV exports are booming.

Lowlights

Sanjeev Gupta strikes Australia again, and again, this time InfraBuild

• InfraBuild reported a net loss of $250m in FY2025 and is likely trading while insolvent, thanks to Gupta have borrowed $1.07bn of really expensive debt against it.
• Beyond time ASIC acted against directors.

Tomago Closure Threats

• Rio Tinto is threatening to close Tomago aluminium smelter due to their inability to access cheap coal power beyond 2028.
• Oliver Yates has proposed a simple government intervention to ensure low cost zero emissions firmed #RE to permanently solve this problem.
• We cant afford to have every multinational corporate lining up for $100-1000m subsidies, blackmailing the Federal Government trying valiantly to implement their FMIA, 82% RE by 2030 and Green Metal Exports policies.

The Methane Gas lobby is out in force

• The NSW and SA governments are out lobbying on behalf of SANTOS, trying to force Narrabri gas development through again, and again.
• Meanwhile the SA government announced another $17m taxpayer subsidy for new methane gas developments in SA.
• BlueScope is leading a manufacturing lobby group calling for more gas development.
• The obvious solution is to accelerate electrification of everything so we permanently remove our addiction to fossil fuels.

Main Story – Fossil fuel subsidies

• It was Tim's pleasure to met former US Vice President Al Gore at the IGCC annual investor conference, and then for a follow up private session hosted by Wollemi and SEC with Australia’s largest Asset Owners.
• Al Gore had Tim when he demanded governments should stop giving fossil fuel companies subsidies!
• Al Gore stamina and determination is seriously impressive, he spoke for over an hour at IGCC then gave a lunch presentation and then another afternoon presentation.
• CEF continues to advocate for the Federal Government to reform the diesel fuel rebate, a $12bn annual subsidy for expensive high emissions imported diesel.
• It was brilliant to have Matt Kean, Chair of the CCA repeatedly call out this massive $12bn annual subsidy by Treasurer Jim Chalmers, the 15^th largest budget expense item, and promote CEF’s Transition Tax Incentive idea to instead incentivise the mining majors to invest in electrification and decarbonisation.
• CEF will be working with a growing coalition of aligned voices from CANA, LEAN, ACTU and Fortescue et al to push for this long overdue reform, particularly given it would be perfect announceable for Minister Bowen if and when Australia gets the COP31 presidency!

What’s coming up?

• Next week Tim is joining the ACBC for a full day discussion on Australia-China Energy Transition Dialogue then 2 days with the Climate Capital Forum in its third Parliament House delegation this year to discuss key issues in cleantech – YFYS, diesel fuel rebate and getting public capital deployments accelerated.
• Then in December Tim is joining the NSW Government for a battery forum in Guangdong China.