Alternative Investments | Part Two: How Can They Mitigate Risk in Your Portfolio?
Release Date: 06/08/2023
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Hello, this is Tom Romano with Unfiltered Finance.
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Welcome back to part two on our discussion of alternative investments here with
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us as Phil McDonald,
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portfolio Manager and managing Director of Investments at Symmetry Partners.
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Phil, welcome back.
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Thanks for having me back. Tom,
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I think we're getting a lot of questions from investors and and advisors because
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of the fact that you look at the performance of some of these alternative asset
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classes in a year like 2022. However,
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I think we would caution our listeners to, to not chase returns,
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and it's more of a strategic allocation that you wanna hold in your portfolio
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for a long duration.
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I would totally agree with that. And, and you have other considerations here,
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like broadly speaking, the expectation of the 60 40 portfolio,
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the return on the so-called 60 port,
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40 portfolio is likely going to be below average for in, in the near future.
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So you start to think about like, okay,
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my traditional portfolio isn't gonna return, you know, the 40 year average,
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what we saw decades ago. So where else might I be,
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might be able to go for returns and diversification? So you,
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you have that inflation surprises, you have increased correlation of,
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of traditional asset classes in the recent past. You know,
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of all these things kind of pointing to the benefit of having a diversified
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alternative strategy. And I would agree with you,
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I think you were alluding to the strength of 2022. It was,
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it was a very good year for certain alternative strategies.
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I would encourage people to think of that as an outlier year like that.
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That's not a year that can necessarily happen again unless all the bad things
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that happen in the equity and fixed income markets and with inflation kind of
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recur. So I, I would encourage people to almost think in terms of sharp ratio,
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right? So an excess return for a given volatility,
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a sharp ratio above 0.5, getting to maybe a 0.8, is,
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is the type of realm I think you should think of for,
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for a diversified alternative strategy. And,
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and to kind of put specifics on that,
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so something that has is managed to a 10% volatility or standard deviation that
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would be a five to 8% excess return on the risk-free rate. So,
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so you know, you're talking single digit excess returns for, uh,
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a strategy that's scaled to a 10% volatility. So, you know,
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to take people out of this expectation of,
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of a home run year kind of happening again, it's less likely to happen again.
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Gotcha.
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Um, just to clarify some of that, because I think that's some,
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some very important advice there. When we talk sharp ratio,
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the way I look at that is bang for your buck. Are you,
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are you getting the return for the risk that you are taking?
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And the higher the sharp ratio,
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the greater the return is for the risk that you're taking.
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And so when we're talking about, you know, years like 2022, which is an outlier,
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which I would agree, you know,
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investors could have alternatives in their portfolio for years with a trade off
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being,
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you might be getting single digit returns while the markets may be producing
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double digit returns. We don't know when the next 20, 22, 2 is gonna happen.
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But having an allocation of those alts will certainly help weather that storm.
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Uh, uh, totally agree. Yes.
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So I think a misconception here, and this is just from my conversations with,
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with advisors, investors alike, they think alternative strategies,
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they think returns. Mm-hmm.
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They think even tactical shifts into and hour. Exactly. Yeah.
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But what I'm hearing you say that this is more of a risk mitigating strategy
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than a return reaching strategy.
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I think it's, it's strongly risk mitigating from a diversification standpoint,
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but I'm not quite sure how
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Much you have to give up in returns. Okay. I mean, it,
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I I wouldn't necessarily say it, it's gonna hurt you over the long term.
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I think you need to think about the right portfolio you, you want to be in. And,
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you know, I dunno if you had a question here, but, uh, you know, there,
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there are some very specific use cases that I think make sense and that would be
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managing just the life cycle,
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how financial plans and asset allocations change as a person ages. Again,
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we, we have a finite kinda life here where we're earning and spending and maybe
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bequeathing and then preferences. So theoretically, as someone ages,
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they're the, the risk of their portfolio should, should come down over time.
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They're converting their human capital,
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their potential for earning during their career into financial capital.
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They're investing that hopefully they're being thoughtful about the
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diversification of, of, of those kind of two buckets and say,
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equity beta should come down as you age.
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Where do you go with that allocation in your portfolio?
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Historically and traditionally, someone would say, oh, fixed, fixed income,
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of course. But we've been seeing for a decade, you and I right,
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we're we're both nodding and smiling.
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There have been times when people were strongly opposed to increasing the fixed
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income allocation in their portfolio. So if it's just, you know, gas and break,
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you know, what do you do? You, you know,
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we've seen investors and advisors kind of freeze and, and say, oh,
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there's no solution here. But this third or fourth, right,
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with cash in the consideration bucket of allocation really opens things up.
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You can take down beta risk, uh, equity beta,
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and you can allocate and diversify not only into fixed income.
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Gotcha.
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And you, you know, we, I joke around saying it depends, right? We,
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we say that a lot here, um, because I also think it's a perfect portfolio.
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You know, we, we look at portfolios as being a series of trade offs.
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And so I immediately think, well gosh, you know,
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if you don't really give up any of the return,
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but you can definitely mitigate some of the risks through sharp ratio,
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as you said, like looking at that particular statistic, who,
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what are the trade-offs of, of investing in alternatives? And,
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and immediately I think, well, well, you're still, there's still cost,
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even though you can get lower cost alternative exposures,
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there's still a cost element to that. Um, and also, you know,
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we talk a lot about tracking error on the behavioral side, right?
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If you're gonna add an alternative asset class to your portfolio,
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but you're honed in on the s and p 500, you're,
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you're not gonna be tracking that index.
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Right?
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Is that, is that a correct way of thinking about it?
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Absolutely.
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And I'm glad you brought that up because not only are alternatives difficult to
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benchmark, there are some indices that I think, um, are,
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are relevant to a diversified, you know, conservative strategy. We, we,
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you know, we run an alternative strategy, uh,
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in different forms that is not seeking to, to be very volatile, right?
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So sub under that 10% volatility that I gave as,
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as the example to conceptualize a sharp ratio. So we, we,
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we don't even believe in a, uh,
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that high level of volatility in an alternative strategy. Um,
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but you raise a very good point.
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So not only are alternatives difficult to benchmark,
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but if you have alternatives in your portfolio,
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the appropriate benchmark for your portfolio should reflect
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the allocation you have. If it's 50% diversified equity,
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40% diversified fixed income, and 10% alts,
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you should probably benchmark yourself to a blended benchmark of a
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50, 40 10 mix of relevant indices.
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Not just look to the s and p 500, because again,
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you probably have a 0.5 beta in that portfolio.
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You don't want to compare yourself to something that is a 1.0 beta.
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Sure, sure. Absolutely. And you know, we, we talk a lot about, on this podcast,
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a lot of folks look at benchmarks to look at the performance, their portfolio,
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and I think that makes a lot of sense. But the true one,
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true benchmark is are you hitting your goals from a financial planning
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standpoint? Right? And so I think that's a better way to, to,
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to look at it versus just making sure that you may or may not be
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outperforming the s and p,
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which is a very visible benchmark out in the world today.
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And we can think the media outlets for that certainly. Right.
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So let's talk a little about, uh, allocation to alts, right?
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Let's say you have an investor, let's say it's 60% stock, 40% bond,
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maybe a small cash position in there. How should that investor consider adding,
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uh, alternatives to the portfolio? Is there a maximum amount you would put in?
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Is there a minimum amount? Would you take it from the stock side?
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Would you take it from the bond side? How does that work? And how should our,
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our listeners be conceptualizing adding that asset
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Class? So we, we have some opinions here, but I think in the end, it's,
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it's gonna be what is acceptable to the investor and what their financial
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advisors would recommend start the starting point matters.
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So if you're exceptionally conservative to start, say you're,
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you know, 10% equity in 90% fixed income,
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I think taking it ha having a a higher allocation alt might
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make more sense than if you were starting from the other end. So, uh,
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in terms of the distribution of returns and, and you know,
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the level of volatility of a diversified AL strategy,
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it's a little bit more similar to fixed income. It's, it's,
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I like to say those returns are fueled by different things. You know, it's not,
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you know, duration and credit risk and illiquidity type of stuff.
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It's other drivers that, that give you returns and alternatives.
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But our rules of thumb, which, you know, are for people to take or leave,
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would be maybe up to about 25% if you're starting from a very conservative, uh,
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portfolio. And if you're starting from a very aggressive portfolio,
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just say someone's a hundred percent equity invested in says, ah,
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I want to add malts to this portfolio, but I don't like fixed income. Um,
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I know a few of those, maybe,
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Maybe something more in the realm of 15%,
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I think lower than 10% allocation of anything to the portfolio is gonna have a,
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a, a limited effect on, on the outcome, right?
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So 10 percent's probably our general starting point to add something and, and,
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and see, uh, beneficial effect to the portfolio and,
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and where we've landed on where to fund it from.
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So I didn't forget that part of your question,
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where believers in prorata from the,
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the asset allocation,
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so if you're a 60 40 investor and you put say,
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20% alternatives,
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60% of that should be probably funded from a reduction in inequity
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and 40% from a reduction in fixed. And they go, again,
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these are starting rules of thumbs. I I am very familiar with people who,
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because that returns distribution to alts, you know, the volatility and the,
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and kind of the average return to the distribution to alts is a little
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more similar to fixed income than it is to equity.
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I know folks who want to take 100% on a fixed income, that is an approach,
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but if you think about that, you've done nothing to reduce your equity risk.
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So if someone is, again, aging life cycle is a consideration here,
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diversifying both systematic, traditional,
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systematic exposures of equity and fixed,
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we think taking from both makes a lot of sense to fund that ALT's position.
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There are exceptions, you know, there, there are, you know,
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there are people who have different savings or different, you know,
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sources of income, maybe people with three pensions, you know, like who, uh,
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who look a little different from an average investor. So again,
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individual specifics need to come into play, but those,
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those are my starting rules of thumb in a vacuum.
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Well, that makes a lot of sense,
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especially if you're looking at alternatives as a third leg to the stool, right.
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Stocks and bonds.
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And if the third category is going to be alternative asset classes or
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alternative strategies, it should come out prorata.
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It's not that the ALS are taking the place of equities or fixed income,
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it's something completely, completely different in the portfolio.
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Yep.
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Fantastic. So, um, Phil, I wanna thank you so much for your time. This is, uh,
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uh, super enlightening and just to kind of recap what we discussed, uh,
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for our listeners, um,
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alternative investments are a great way to diversify a portfolio beyond stocks,
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bonds, and cash.
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There are ways to get exposures to liquid alternative strategies through
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ETFs and mutual funds. With that should,
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you should expect a level of transparency to make sure you are getting those
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diversification benefits and, uh, certainly, uh, liquidity being a,
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uh, a factor there as well. And you know, whether or not alternatives are,
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are suitable for you, as we always say and unfiltered finance. You know,
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the best advice we can give is to always work with a financial advisor or
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financial professional that can take a look at your own personal situation,
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assess that situation, and, uh, make sure that they recommend, uh,
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an asset allocation, uh, that's suitable for you.
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Thank you listeners for joining us today. Uh, Phil, once again,
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it's always fun having you on the show. We'll certainly have you back. Great.
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Thanks for having me.
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For those of you who are looking for additional information,
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you can always visit our [email protected]. Feel free to,
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uh, listen to this podcast, uh,
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again or access any of our previous podcasts to the, uh,
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venue in which you get your podcasts.
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So thanks for listening and we'll catch you next time.
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