Hot Pot Paranoia
Tea and Crumpets
In this episode, we talk a lot about the job market, which is anything but hot, and its implications for the Fed, which is under pressure. All of the below tend to support President Trump’s criticism of Powell being “too late”: weakening job growth this summer (only +22k jobs in August, mostly in health care). likelihood of significant negative revisions this week. unemployment that would be over 5% if not for lower labor force participation. Although unemployment is not an issue (yet), the risk in the labor market is a dearth of new jobs, with the odds of finding a job if you lose on...
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The Gilded Age
Tea and Crumpets
In this episode, Will and Adam examine former Secretary of Labor Robert Reich’s comments comparing today to the Gilded Age. We acknowledge there are several similarities, including increasing wealth disparity, the emergence of disruptive technology, and widespread commingling of government with business. We specifically discuss the recent discussion around the government taking stake in public companies, which, though has a precedent, was used in the past during times of financial crisis, i.e., to keep automakers afloat during the financial crisis. We discuss the (until just recently)...
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Demise of the Switchboard Operator
Tea and Crumpets
In this episode, we provide a recap on earnings so far in Q2, which, so far, have been good enough for the market to remain near all-time highs. We also delve a little deeper into some of the megacap earnings, especially as it relates to whether accounting rules are optically improving earnings while cash flow is shrinking as spending on capital expenditures, specifically AI chips, is draining corporate coffers. To wit, free cash flow versus capex for the four biggest spenders (GOOG, META, AMZN, and MSFT) is as follows (in billions): 2024 FCF - $233 Capex - $226 2025 FCF - $207 Capex -...
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Dear Jerome
Tea and Crumpets
In the first half, we look at the OBBBA, and what its passage may mean for investors, as well as for the government’s balance sheet. Debt from baseline projection of 154% of GDP to upwards of 200% of GDP with the OBBBA. Deficits from around 6% of GDP to over 7% with the OBBBA. Despite the ballooning deficits and debt, markets are celebrating the prospect of fiscal stimulus, as well as favorable tax treatments on investment as well as other corporate goodies. In the second half, we discuss President Trump’s penmanship as it relates to his letter to Chair Powell on interest rates and why the...
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Black Eye
Tea and Crumpets
In the first half, we examine the (rumored) literal fisticuffs in D.C., and the implications of the proposed “Big, Beautiful Bill” on taxes, spending, the deficit, interest rates, and the dollar. We discuss the timing of tax cuts versus spending cuts, especially in light of the employment data we have seen since 2022, wherein: Private sector job growth -> a little over 1% cumulatively. Public sector job growth -> over 7% cumulatively. In the second half, we discuss the market’s rapid rebound from its April nadir and juxtapose returns (and valuations) for different parts of the...
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The Swamp Always Wins
Tea and Crumpets
In this episode, we have a no-holds-barred conversation featuring Kalee Kreider, a seasoned political strategist and expert in climate policy. Together, we dig into the uncomfortable truths about markets, politics, and the economic pressures facing everyday Americans. From election forecasts and the appeal of government gridlock to the harsh realities of student debt, the conversation is unscripted, unfiltered, and unexpectedly funny. We explore why investors often prefer a slow-moving Congress, how middle-income families are still reeling from financial burdens nobody talks about, and why...
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Face Off
Tea and Crumpets
In the first half, we discuss the showdown between the U.S. and China on tariffs. While the headlines have been stolen by who is calling whom first, we look into the effect the tariffs are already having on container ship volumes, and what implications that has for the rest of the supply chain, and the economy. Tariffs are just starting to hit consumers as they look to buy online, with the tariff exceeding the purchase price in some cases. While there is optimism over a resolution, historically trade agreements have involved lengthy negotiations, and we are weeks away from the initial impact...
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Winging It
Tea and Crumpets
In the first half, we discuss Liberation Day, the violent reaction of, initially, the stock market and, subsequently, the bond market. In terms of the bond market, we look at the frantic trading from last week that ultimately forced the administration to announce a 90-day pause on most tariffs. Who holds U.S. debt? The answer might surprise you: Total debt - $34 trillion Domestic holders - $26 trillion Japan - $1.1 trillion China - $820 billion (though may be understated as offshore entities, i.e., other countries, are likely being used as well) Other countries - $5.3 trillion In the second...
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Liberation Day
Tea and Crumpets
In the first half, we discuss the imminent arrival of “Liberation Day”, and why uncertainty over tariffs is causing consternation to consumer, business, and investor confidence. We look at the most recent inflation data from the government and examine the widely divergent inflation expectations based on political affiliation. We also tie this to the likelihood of further rate cuts and the necessity to drive rates lower as sizable government debt is due to be refinanced in 2025. In the second half, we (finally) discuss what has been a challenging quarter for stocks, especially the...
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Canadian, Judge, and Jury
Tea and Crumpets
In the first half, Will and Adam discuss the rapid deterioration in consumer sentiment and how it is cutting across both economic and political divides, albeit to differing degrees. Some sentiment indicators, especially concerns over job loss, are at levels normally seen during a recession, in part due to the uncertainty over tariffs with large trading partners like Canada. Another concern is spending cuts. We look past the headlines to see that cuts have not yet taken hold, though with 85% of job growth in 2024 attributable to government spending, we could be in for a volatile transition...
info_outlineWill and Adam return to provide insight on recent market tumult. We look at the causes (recession concerns, Japanese bank policy) and the effects (sharp decline, quick rebound, spike in volatility). We compare what is normal about today’s environment versus the anomalies that cause us some concern.
Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Will Brown, and Adam Eagleston by visiting www.formidableam.com.