Historical Accuracies
Tea and Crumpets
After a summer hiatus, Will Brown and Adam Eagleston return to examine a market that appears to be reaching an important inflection point. They discuss the Federal Reserve's increasingly difficult balancing act as inflation remains stubbornly above target, government debt and interest payments continue to climb, and geopolitical tensions threaten to keep energy prices elevated. The conversation explores why these macroeconomic forces could shape the next phase of the market and what investors should be watching in the months ahead. The episode also takes a deeper dive into the technology...
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Summer Kickoff
Tea and Crumpets
Summer is officially underway, and Will Brown and Adam Eagleston waste no time diving into the headlines shaping markets, energy, and investor sentiment. Against the backdrop of global soccer fever, the duo examines the recently announced Iran-related memorandum of understanding and what it could mean for oil prices, inflation, and the Federal Reserve. While markets initially cheered the agreement, Will and Adam explore the deeper supply-and-demand dynamics that could keep energy prices elevated and complicate the Fed’s path forward. The conversation then shifts to one of the market’s...
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Epic Furry
Tea and Crumpets
In this episode of Tea and Crumpets, Will Brown and Adam Eagleston dive into a market that appears remarkably calm on the surface while a growing list of geopolitical and economic risks continues to build beneath it. From escalating tensions in the Middle East and concerns over global energy supply to record stock market levels and speculative enthusiasm surrounding AI and upcoming IPOs, our host explore the growing disconnect between market optimism and economic reality. Will and Adam discuss the potential consequences of prolonged disruptions to global oil markets, including the strategic...
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100th Episode Spectacular, or Irrationally Optimistic (Part 1)
Tea and Crumpets
In the 100th episode of Tea and Crumpets, Will Brown and Adam Eagleston celebrate the podcast’s century mark by welcoming returning guest Kalee Kreider for a timely and expansive discussion on geopolitics, inflation, energy markets, and the growing disconnect between financial markets and economic realities on the ground. As Part 1 of this special two-part release, the conversation opens with reflections on reaching 100 episodes before quickly shifting into a deeper examination of the global and domestic pressures shaping the current economic environment. Kalee offers a unique...
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100th Episode Spectacular, or Irrationally Optimistic (Part 2)
Tea and Crumpets
In Part 2 of this special 100th episode celebration of Tea and Crumpets, Will Brown and Adam Eagleston continue their wide-ranging conversation with returning guest Kalee Kreider, diving deeper into the political, economic, and cultural consequences of the current geopolitical and financial environment. Building on the themes from Episode 100, the discussion shifts toward the upcoming U.S. election cycle, the evolving identity crisis within both political parties, and the broader implications of polarization, redistricting, and shifting voter coalitions. Kalee offers candid insight into...
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Houthis and the Blowfish
Tea and Crumpets
In this episode of Tea and Crumpets, Will Brown and Adam Eagleston dive into a rapidly evolving geopolitical and economic landscape shaped by escalating tensions in the Middle East. With a fragile ceasefire in place and ongoing uncertainty surrounding key shipping routes like the Strait of Hormuz, the conversation explores how quickly conditions on the ground, and in the markets, are shifting. They highlight the difficulty of interpreting real-time information in an environment flooded with conflicting narratives and misinformation. At the center of the discussion is the global energy market,...
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We Interrupt This Podcast…
Tea and Crumpets
In episode 98 of Tea and Crumpets, Will Brown and Adam Eagleston address a rapidly unfolding geopolitical and market situation, as well as the broader assumptions investors have been relying on. What begins as a discussion of escalating tensions in the Middle East quickly turns into a deeper examination of how fragile global energy infrastructure, shifting policy decisions, and uncertain military outcomes are colliding in real time. The hosts highlight how quickly sentiment can swing, with markets reacting sharply to both escalation and temporary de-escalation, underscoring just how sensitive...
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Oil, Private Credit, and A.I.
Tea and Crumpets
In this episode of Tea and Crumpets, Adam Eagleston and Will Brown examine a rapidly evolving global environment where geopolitics, energy markets, and structural risks in finance are colliding. The discussion begins with the escalating conflict involving Iran and Israel and the immediate shock to global oil markets, where prices surged dramatically before partially retracing. Adam and Will explore how disruptions to Middle Eastern energy infrastructure and shipping routes could tighten global supply, increase inflation pressure, and complicate monetary policy decisions for the Federal...
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Under the Surface
Tea and Crumpets
After a brief hiatus (courtesy of a historic Southern ice storm), Adam and Will return to find an index-level market that looks deceptively calm—roughly flat since their last episode—while significant damage has been done beneath the surface to individual stocks. The disconnect between index stability and individual-stock carnage is the central thread of the episode. The first major topic is AI capital expenditure. Most of the Mag 7 have committed to spending at a scale that would have seemed absurd just a few years ago, and the market, which once rewarded this enthusiasm, has begun to...
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Happy New Year
Tea and Crumpets
We look at the eventful start to 2026 and try to put some context around potential market impacts. Geopolitically, we saw the renewed vigor of the Monroe Doctrine in full force with U.S. action against Venezuela’s Nicolas Maduro. Whether stemming the flow of drugs or increasing the supply of oil was the primary factor is undetermined, though decades of underinvestment in infrastructure make any meaningful near-term effect on oil supply unlikely; lower oil prices have been one of the few things keeping inflation in check. We also discuss saber rattling as it relates to Greenland, whose...
info_outlineIn the first half, we examine the (rumored) literal fisticuffs in D.C., and the implications of the proposed “Big, Beautiful Bill” on taxes, spending, the deficit, interest rates, and the dollar. We discuss the timing of tax cuts versus spending cuts, especially in light of the employment data we have seen since 2022, wherein:
- Private sector job growth -> a little over 1% cumulatively.
- Public sector job growth -> over 7% cumulatively.
In the second half, we discuss the market’s rapid rebound from its April nadir and juxtapose returns (and valuations) for different parts of the equity market. Is it finally time for diversification to help after a 15-year run for the U.S.?
- U.S. large caps +3% YTD
- U.S. small caps -2% YTD
- Developed non-U.S. +17% YTD
- Emerging markets +11% YTD
While the collapse in the volatility index and the huge rally from the lows normally portend further gains, valuations for the S&P 500 are historically high on any number of measures. While the so-called Magnificent Seven are more elevated, the other 493 are also expensive, and have grown earnings a lot more slowly than the tech titans. Contrary to our forecast entering 2025, fewer than one in three stocks are outperforming this year, putting a premium on stock selection. While multiples are high, we think active managers willing to go further afield can find values.
Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Will Brown, and Adam Eagleston by visiting www.formidableam.com.