Winging It
Tea and Crumpets
In the first half, we discuss Liberation Day, the violent reaction of, initially, the stock market and, subsequently, the bond market. In terms of the bond market, we look at the frantic trading from last week that ultimately forced the administration to announce a 90-day pause on most tariffs. Who holds U.S. debt? The answer might surprise you: Total debt - $34 trillion Domestic holders - $26 trillion Japan - $1.1 trillion China - $820 billion (though may be understated as offshore entities, i.e., other countries, are likely being used as well) Other countries - $5.3 trillion In the second...
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Liberation Day
Tea and Crumpets
In the first half, we discuss the imminent arrival of “Liberation Day”, and why uncertainty over tariffs is causing consternation to consumer, business, and investor confidence. We look at the most recent inflation data from the government and examine the widely divergent inflation expectations based on political affiliation. We also tie this to the likelihood of further rate cuts and the necessity to drive rates lower as sizable government debt is due to be refinanced in 2025. In the second half, we (finally) discuss what has been a challenging quarter for stocks, especially the...
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Canadian, Judge, and Jury
Tea and Crumpets
In the first half, Will and Adam discuss the rapid deterioration in consumer sentiment and how it is cutting across both economic and political divides, albeit to differing degrees. Some sentiment indicators, especially concerns over job loss, are at levels normally seen during a recession, in part due to the uncertainty over tariffs with large trading partners like Canada. Another concern is spending cuts. We look past the headlines to see that cuts have not yet taken hold, though with 85% of job growth in 2024 attributable to government spending, we could be in for a volatile transition...
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The Rest is Geography
Tea and Crumpets
With headlines versus earnings moving markets, we look at the perceptions and realities influencing investors (and speculators). In the first half, we discuss the sharp decline in consumer confidence and spike in inflation expectations, both of which represent challenges to continued equity market strength. We also look at how the bond market (and the Federal Reserve) are responding, and how the continued on again/off again/on again tariff headlines are causing consternation to consumers and investors. In the second half, we delve into the perception versus reality of government efforts...
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Trump Tariff Tourette’s Threats
Tea and Crumpets
With tariffs in the news, we sift through the torrent of headlines coming from both sides of the border and beyond. In the first half, we look at the breaking news on tariffs, with an 11th hour agreement with Mexico giving a pause to the proposed 25% duty on imports. We also look at why Canada may be more reticent to strike a deal, and what the bigger objectives may be. Is it all about oil and inflation, or are we looking at a 21st century version of the Monroe Doctrine aimed at China? We also break down how the Fed is assessing the situation. In the second half, we...
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I Can Hear You Clowns
Tea and Crumpets
After a holiday hiatus, we welcome 2025 with a look at what worked in 2024 and what that may mean for this year. One thing that did not work: forecasts. The Fed cut rates fewer times than predicted, and we discuss the recent pivot toward a more hawkish tone, which is part of the reason for the increase in yields on longer bonds. Those higher yields are stressing consumers and businesses, not to mention grinding mortgage activity to a halt. We look at the implications of higher rates and compare some of the small business stress we are seeing in our community versus the strong jobs data...
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Defiling Gravity
Tea and Crumpets
We take a wicked look upward, where both unidentified drones and market valuations reside. We also discuss the upcoming Fed meeting, investor sentiment, and the outlook for corporate margins (and employment) as AI gains greater adoption. Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Will Brown, and Adam Eagleston by visiting .
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Gamma Claus is Coming to Town
Tea and Crumpets
We discuss the recent mania around levered ETFs and the market mechanics that make these so volatile. We also take our first look at investor response to Trump’s win and what we think some of the over (and under) reactions have been so far, and what the true implications of changes in fiscal and regulatory policy may mean. Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Will Brown, and Adam Eagleston by visiting .
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Undecided Boaters
Tea and Crumpets
This week, Will and Adam discuss how markets typically respond to the election cycle, and the importance of staying committed to the long-term view when it comes to investing. We also do a deep, some may say submarine, dive on the phenomenon causing some of the extreme weather we are seeing, and compare this type of explosion and its effects to how the explosion of post-Covid stimulus has affected inflation, stocks, and bonds. Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Will Brown, and Adam Eagleston by visiting .
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Not Chicken Anymore
Tea and Crumpets
We recap the historically strong year-to-date performance of equities and compare Q3 versus the first half of the year. We also delve into the potential market implications of the upcoming presidential elections as well as the ongoing (and escalating) conflict in the Middle East. Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Will Brown, and Adam Eagleston by visiting .
info_outlineWith headlines versus earnings moving markets, we look at the perceptions and realities influencing investors (and speculators).
In the first half, we discuss the sharp decline in consumer confidence and spike in inflation expectations, both of which represent challenges to continued equity market strength. We also look at how the bond market (and the Federal Reserve) are responding, and how the continued on again/off again/on again tariff headlines are causing consternation to consumers and investors.
In the second half, we delve into the perception versus reality of government efforts to cut waste and if that is enough to reduce the deficit enough to achieve the administration’s goal of a lower yield on longer term Treasuries. We also look into the effects of wealth and spending inequality on the economy. There is also a continued discussion of the effect of passive fund flows and levered ETFs on some of the markets biggest names, and how those are widening the dispersion between stock indices versus the average stock; to wit:
- The NASDAQ is only 5% from its year-to-date high, while the average NASDAQ stock is 25% from its high.
- Only 22% of stocks in the S&P 500 outperformed the index over the past 12 months.
- After six of the so-called Magnificent Seven outperformed in 2024, only one is ahead of the S&P 500 so far this year.
We close with our thoughts on where we are seeing positives and why, eventually, fundamentals may matter more than headlines.
Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Will Brown, and Adam Eagleston by visiting www.formidableam.com.