Wide Boundary News: The Iranian War, Rising Gas Prices, and the Single Point Failure | Frankly 130
The Great Simplification with Nate Hagens
Release Date: 03/10/2026
Oil 301: The World After Cheap Energy | Frankly 137
The Great Simplification with Nate Hagens
Today’s Frankly is the final installment in a three-part series on the role oil plays in modern civilization, prompted by the recent flow disruptions and geopolitical conflict surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. Nate frames the entire arc of this series through the concept of the carbon pulse: a one-time inheritance of ancient stored sunlight that humanity is burning through in a few hundred years. He highlights how modern economies, now roughly a thousand times larger than five centuries ago, are built on the assumption that the energy abundance at the top of this curve is permanent, when in...
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Oil 201: What Happens When the Oil Stops Flowing | Frankly 136
The Great Simplification with Nate Hagens
This week’s Frankly is the second in a three-part series on the role oil plays in modern civilization, prompted by the recent flow disruptions and geopolitical conflict surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. This installment explores how modern society has been built on the assumption of cheap and abundant energy, and what happens when that assumption breaks down. Nate describes the ways our built systems, including food production, water treatment, manufacturing, and global trade, are calibrated to cheap energy inputs, and how processes that look economically efficient are often deeply...
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Oil 101: What You Actually Need to Know About Oil | Frankly 135
The Great Simplification with Nate Hagens
This week’s Frankly is the first in a three-part series on the role oil plays in modern civilization, prompted by the recent flow disruptions and geopolitical conflict surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. This initial installment covers some foundational concepts of The Great Simplification platform, including what oil actually is, what it does for us, and why most of us never see any of it. Nate begins by describing how oil formed from the compression of ancient marine phytoplankton over millions of years, framing it as a solar battery that took geological time to charge and that humans are...
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Navigating the Metacrisis: Finding Calm in the Storm through Awareness and Meditation with Sam Harris
The Great Simplification with Nate Hagens
Between global crises and personal problems, modern life is overflowing with things to worry about, including many issues that feel too big to even address. Yet, our ability to influence these problems and how much we worry about them are not equal to each other – and in fact, getting lost in thoughts of anxiety can reduce our ability to act. Given the direct line between individual inner states and civilizational dysfunction, what global change might be possible if we train ourselves to observe thought, rather than be unconsciously consumed and paralyzed by it? In this episode, Nate is...
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Uncomfortable Questions for Unsettled Times: A World at the Edge of Change | Frankly 134
The Great Simplification with Nate Hagens
This week's Frankly is another in a recurring series, Uncomfortable Questions in Unsettled Times, where Nate poses questions about our shared future. Today he focuses on the unfolding crisis in the Persian Gulf, unpacking hidden implications that aren’t covered by the headlines. Nate opens by examining how behind-the-scenes geopolitical decisions at the highest level create a widespread ripple effect – influencing everything from oil production to water desalination to fertilizer and food systems. He considers the risk of continued geopolitical conflict as global alliances shift, as well...
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Scrambling for Energy Security: Navigating Unstable Energy Supplies Amidst Global Conflict with Chris Keefer
The Great Simplification with Nate Hagens
As the war in Iran creates chaos in every domain of life, the already-fragile energy systems of many countries find themselves on the brink of crisis after spending decades investing in natural gas infrastructure, largely supplied by Middle Eastern countries. With projected natural gas prices now spiking across the world, a growing number of nations are re-prioritizing energy security over energy convenience – calling into question the types of electricity generation needed for their citizens as they look to the coming decades. Could this lead to calls for a nuclear power revival in the...
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Iran, U.S., and the Rest: The Unavoidable Pig in the Python | Frankly 133
The Great Simplification with Nate Hagens
In this episode, Nate offers a personal reflection on the unfolding geopolitical tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, beginning with an examination of how disruptions to fossil fuel flows propagate through the global economy, but with a time lag. He points out how many of the world’s countries rely heavily on imported fossil fuels, as well as the potential impact on California’s already high gas prices. Nate also contrasts the relative insulation of those in the United States with the far greater exposure of those living in Asia, Europe, and Africa, outlining how second- and...
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Ending the AI Arms Race: Why Safer Futures Are Still Possible & What You Can Do to Help with Tristan Harris
The Great Simplification with Nate Hagens
The conversation around artificial intelligence has been captured by two competing narratives – techno-abundance or civilizational collapse – both of which sidestep the question of who this technology is actually being built for. But if we consider that we are setting the initial conditions for everything that follows, we might realize that we are in a pivotal moment for AI development which demands a deeper cultural conversation about the type of future we actually want. What would it look like to design AI for the benefit of the 99%, and what are the necessary steps to make that...
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What to Do as the World Falls Apart: A Framework for Action | Frankly 132
The Great Simplification with Nate Hagens
This week’s Frankly marks a turning point in the work of The Great Simplification. Having spent twenty years articulating the more-than-human predicament, Nate shifts from diagnosis to direction as current events – including conflict in the Strait of Hormuz – accelerate the timeline. Today Nate shares a first-pass framework for action and response that’s organized around what to do now, which could be applied to various places and at multiple scales. The framework begins with a personal foundation of inner work: stabilizing the nervous system, recapturing a sense of agency, doing...
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The Plastic Detox: Reducing Endocrine Disruptors for Better Fertility and Human Health with Shanna Swan & Sian Sutherland | RR 23
The Great Simplification with Nate Hagens
The number of couples struggling to become pregnant due to unexplained infertility is growing at an alarming rate across the globe. Alongside this concerning rise is the growing awareness of how endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDCs) – particularly those found in plastics and personal care products – are negatively affecting our hormonal health and overall well-being. If we removed or reduced EDCs from the environments of couples struggling to conceive – dramatically reducing their exposure – is it possible their fertility would be improved? In this episode, Nate is joined by Dr....
info_outlineThis week’s Frankly is another edition of Nate’s Wide Boundary News series, where he invites listeners to view the constant churn of headlines through a wider-boundary lens. In this installment, Nate addresses the U.S. and Israeli military offensive against Iran and traces the reverberating effects that extend far beyond the conflict itself, starting with what the closure of the Strait of Hormuz means for a civilization that routes a massive share of its physical economy through a single maritime corridor.
Nate begins with the core misperception that oil registers as roughly 3% of GDP by cost, when in reality it underpins 100% of economic activity. Building off of that, he outlines a series of second- and third-order effects that rarely appear in headline coverage, including hidden dependencies on sulfur, liquefied natural gas, and nitrogen fertilizer that connect the Strait of Hormuz to mining operations, European energy security, and global food systems. He also explains the stock-and-flow imbalance between expensive missile interceptors and cheap drone warfare, and the difficult choices facing aging Middle Eastern oil fields if production is forced to shut in. Finally, Nate considers the religious narratives on all three sides of the conflict, where Christian, Jewish, and Shia Islamic end-times frameworks each cast the war as prophetic fulfillment, short-circuiting the feedback loops that normally slow escalation.
What does the exposure of a single shipping corridor reveal about the deep energy dependencies of modern civilization? How might the second- and third-order effects of this conflict, from fertilizer to metals to food prices, reshape the global economy in ways that outlast the war itself? And when all parties in a conflict believe they are fulfilling divine prophecy, where do the off-ramps for de-escalation appear?
(Recorded March 9th, 2026)
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