The Great Simplification with Nate Hagens

The Great Simplification is a podcast that explores the systems science underpinning the human predicament. Through conversations with experts and leaders hosted by Dr. Nate Hagens, we explore topics spanning ecology, economics, energy, geopolitics, human behavior, and monetary/financial systems. Our goal is to provide a simple educational resource for the complex energetic, physical, and social constraints ahead, and to inspire people to play a role in our collective future. Ultimately, we aim to normalize these conversations and, in doing so, change the initial conditions of future events.

Unordinary Interventions: How to Plant Seeds for a Better Future | Frankly 154 08/07/2026

Unordinary Interventions: How to Plant Seeds for a Better Future | Frankly 154 What can one person actually do about the metacrisis? In this week’s Frankly, Nate explicitly outlines just a few of the countless actions we can take to actually change what’s coming, rather than just prepare for it. He touches on why the metacrisis is better understood as a predicament to be continually shaped, rather than as a problem with a single solution – calling for a shift in mindset in order to navigate the uncertainty ahead. In complex systems such as ours, even seemingly modest differences in initial conditions can lead to wildly different outcomes down the road, meaning that what each of us chooses to do today shifts what becomes possible in the decades ahead. With that framing, Nate offers a list of small, specific, and slightly unordinary interventions that serve to challenge the forces driving the metacrisis. He explores methods like reducing dependence on constant stimulation, cultivating humanity and humility, and finding our own version of what is “enough.” Along the way, he also shares how he sees resilience growing through shared effort, meaningful relationships, and a renewed sense of responsibility for the more-than-human world. None of these things will solve our predicament on their own. But if millions choose to start living differently in the immediate present, the forces shaping our future might just start to shift. How can redefining success, consumption, and community make us less vulnerable to today’s systemic challenges? Why does “practicing loss” help change the way we respond to disruptions? And what if the most meaningful response to the world’s biggest challenges isn’t a sweeping political movement or a technological breakthrough, but a collection of ordinary actions practiced consistently over time? (Recorded August 2nd, 2026) Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our --- /episode/index/show/thegreatsimplification/id/42349890

The Optimization Trap: Why Too Much Efficiency Makes Us Fragile with Olivier Hamant 08/05/2026

The Optimization Trap: Why Too Much Efficiency Makes Us Fragile with Olivier Hamant For decades, modern civilization has treated efficiency as an unquestioned good: the leaner, faster, and more optimized anything is – from supply chains to your morning routine – the better. But emerging systems science argues that this obsession with performance is actually making humanity more brittle. What if the over-optimization baked into our economies, our agriculture, our institutions, and even our own bodies is at the root of our shared predicament, and how can nature’s intelligence show us a different way? In this episode, Nate is joined by biologist and biophysicist Olivier Hamant to explore why living systems prioritize robustness over performance, and what that means for a civilization built almost entirely in the opposite direction. Olivier distinguishes performance (efficacy plus efficiency) from robustness (the capacity to remain stable and viable despite fluctuation), and he points out that nature rarely selects for the most efficient organism; it selects for the most adaptable one. Together, Nate and Olivier also trace how cheap, abundant energy allowed human societies to substitute the "safety net" of resource abundance for the safety net that living systems actually rely on: diversity, redundancy, and cooperation. As the twenty-first century moves from an era of stable averages into an era of volatility and standard deviation, Olivier argues that the path forward likely isn't degrowth or continued growth, but a third way: economies and institutions designed to be robust and adaptable to risk, rather than avoid it. What wisdom have we forgotten for the sake of maximizing material output and efficiency? How has our search for optimization affected our quality of life, and what do we risk by continuing down this same path? Most importantly, could balancing our focus on performance and robustness be the key to reframing our relationship with the entire Earth, bringing more stability, rest, and meaning to our lives? (Conversation recorded on July 28th, 2026)\ About Olivier Hamant: Olivier Hamant is a French biologist and biophysicist whose work combines plant science and civilizational thought. He serves as Director of Research at the French National Research Institute for Agriculture, Food and Environment, teaches at the École Normale Supérieure de Lyon, and directs the Institut Michel Serres – an interdisciplinary institute focused on ecological transition. Hamant’s work is centralized around the idea that modern civilization has confused “performance” with “fitness” by prizing efficiency/optimization/specialization/maximum output. This is in direct contrast to most living systems, which rarely optimize for these characteristics – instead, living systems survive because they are robust, or able to maintain their identity despite unpredictable disturbances. Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our --- /episode/index/show/thegreatsimplification/id/42318490

When Truth Becomes Hazardous: Navigating Information Through the Metacrisis | Frankly 153 07/31/2026

When Truth Becomes Hazardous: Navigating Information Through the Metacrisis | Frankly 153 This week, Nate takes on a tension he has been navigating for years, at the heart of communicating about the metacrisis: the hazards that arise from sharing true information with a global audience. Building on his earlier episode, "," where he first described a "triple information hazard," Nate now outlines twelve distinct risks that emerge when honest insights about the more-than-human predicament are broadcast at scale. Drawing on philosopher Nick Bostrom's concept of an "information hazard," he explains why certain ideas become dangerous precisely because they are true, and why the era of AI raises the stakes, as everything said publicly is now ingested as training data and metabolized by the very superorganism he describes. Some of these hazards land on the speaker, some benefit the powerful, and some fall on the audience itself. Nate reflects on the dangers of despair and false reassurance, the "half map" problem of naming risks without corresponding strategies, and the private burden of weighing what can and cannot be said. Yet he is clear that these hazards argue for care rather than silence: attention to timing, context, scale, and the trust of the people listening. He closes by suggesting that truths that become hazardous when shouted into a global microphone can become benign, even healing, when shared around a kitchen table, and that growing trust and community at human scale may be the deepest response to all twelve. When does sharing the truth create new risks rather than reducing existing ones? How do we balance openness with the responsibility to protect people, strategies, and emerging possibilities? And what does honest communication look like in an era when every word can be amplified, weaponized, or metabolized by machines? Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our --- /episode/index/show/thegreatsimplification/id/42270255

The End of Globalization: Why Abundance Is an Illusion with Jeff Currie 07/29/2026

The End of Globalization: Why Abundance Is an Illusion with Jeff Currie For three decades, most of Wall Street has treated energy and commodities as a rounding error, or as a small slice of the portfolio rather than the physical foundation everything else runs on. But in mid-2026, with the Strait of Hormuz disrupted, tankers burning in the Red and Black Seas, and nearly half of Russia's refining capacity knocked offline, that complacency is being tested in real time. The noise around increasing crude oil prices is loud, but this week’s guest argues that the signal beneath it – the decline of refined products like diesel and jet fuel – is already sounding the alarm bells of a world in crisis. In this episode, Nate is joined by Jeff Currie for a wide-boundary look at what happens when the buffers that have suppressed energy price signals for fifty years finally run dry. Using his decades of experience as a former commodity strategist at Goldman Sachs and as a current senior advisor at The Carlyle Group, Jeff walks through why the "crack spread" between crude and refined products just hit its highest level in three decades. He also describes why draining strategic reserves is, in actuality, simply a bet that scarcity can be avoided rather than solved – in Currie’s eyes, the West's refusal to admit scarcity since the 70s has left it structurally unprepared, particularly compared to China's security-driven build-out of nuclear, solar, and battery capacity. He also lays out the "Grand Bargain" underlying the postwar dollar system, wherein the U.S. protects global sea lanes in exchange for global trade running through New York. Jeff explains why a failure to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could unravel this arrangement, bringing forward consequences that would land hardest on middle-class Americans' access to credit and consumption. Is the world entering a new commodity supercycle driven by scarcity and deglobalization, or is the market going to keep shrugging off these shocks? What might it mean for ordinary people if the credit and dollar system that has funded American consumption for eighty years starts to break down? And if, as Jeff argues, we are only in "the foothills of the Himalayas," how much higher does this climb go before societies are forced to reckon with the physical limits behind the price signals? (Conversation recorded on July 23rd, 2026) About Jeff Currie: Jeff Currie is the Chief Strategy Officer at Altis Partners. Previously, Jeff served as Chief Strategy Officer of Energy Pathways at Carlyle and currently serves as a Senior Advisor to the firm. Jeff's analysis focuses on the energy and commodity markets and the supply chain central to an energy transition. Jeff is the former Global Head of Commodities Research at Goldman Sachs, where he helped to build their commodities business. During his nearly three decades at the firm, he became one of the leading commodity market strategists on Wall Street, known for advising clients through the commodity “super cycle” of the 2000s, the shale supply shock of the 2010s, and most recently the twin shocks of the pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war. Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our --- /episode/index/show/thegreatsimplification/id/42244085

Watch With Both Eyes Open: The Beauty and the Horror of Our Moment 07/24/2026

Watch With Both Eyes Open: The Beauty and the Horror of Our Moment In this week's Frankly, Nate reflects on a week spent with a group of friends and peers who share his understanding of the world's converging crises, and what it revealed about the deeply human need to be fully seen, without having to explain yourself first. Though the group rarely discussed climate, AI, or energy depletion, the shared awareness of these issues created space for humor, joy, and the reemergence of a version of himself that had quietly faded into the background over the years. He observes that most rooms he finds himself in either run either too hot – where people are overly fixated on systemic risk and its gory details – or too cold, where the state of the world goes unacknowledged entirely. This group served as the rare in-between: people who could hold both the beauty and the horror of our moment with both eyes open, and still show up each morning with presence, purpose, and laughter. From there, Nate widens the lens to the role of community in an age of converging crises: our evolutionary wiring as social animals, the physiological nourishment of daily in-person connection that even the strongest online relationships cannot replicate, and the quiet loneliness of seeing the world differently than those around us. Many listeners of this platform might be in the same position: aware and engaged, yet locally alone. As The Great Simplification continues to unfold, Nate suggests that finding – or helping to build – local communities grounded in shared reality, mutual presence, and care may be among the most important no-regrets strategies available to us – and one this platform intends to help cultivate. What changes when you no longer have to explain the world as you see it before you can simply be yourself? Why does in-person community meet needs that even meaningful online relationships cannot? And what first steps can we take toward the kinds of local communities that help us face an uncertain future with resilience, meaning, and joy? (Recorded July 21st, 2026) Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our --- /episode/index/show/thegreatsimplification/id/42197945

Taking Love Seriously: What Ancient Wisdom & Modern Psychology Say About Interconnectedness with John Churchill 07/22/2026

Taking Love Seriously: What Ancient Wisdom & Modern Psychology Say About Interconnectedness with John Churchill A growing chorus of psychologists, contemplatives, and systems thinkers argue that most of us, and most of our institutions, are running an outdated psychological and spiritual "operating system," one never built for the converging ecological, economic, and cultural crises we face. Technological and policy responses absorb nearly all of our attention and resources, yet the maturity of the humans making the decisions may be the most needed and least prioritized intervention of all. Could ancient contemplative traditions, paired with modern psychology, offer a map for the kind of collective growing up this moment demands? In this episode, Nate welcomes Dr. John Churchill, a psychologist and former Buddhist monk, to explore a map of human development that runs from "first-person" perspective of the isolated self all the way to a felt, embodied sense of interdependence with the planet itself. Drawing on decades spent synthesizing Tibetan Buddhist contemplative science with Western developmental psychology, John walks Nate through why our centers of power remain frozen at the level of third-person individualism. John also explains why "love wisdom" (the integration of heart and mind) may be the missing ingredient in how we respond to our more-than-human predicament. Along the way, Nate presses him on whether this maturation applies to individuals, cultures, or our entire species, and on how a 2,000-year detour through empire and the carbon pulse pushed these traditions to the margins. The conversation ranges from the lost sacred academies of Alexandria to a simple attention practice anyone can do, and it keeps circling back to a single throughline: that beauty, truth, and goodness are load-bearing structures for whatever comes next. What do beauty, truth, and goodness have to do with finding alternative paths toward a more flourishing humanity? How would it feel to be truly at one with the planet, and how might it change the way we act? And what can an individual do, this month, with the time and resources they actually have, to begin living into that shift? (Conversation recorded on June 17th, 2026) About John Churchill: John began his in-depth study of Buddhist Psychology while a Buddhist monk at Samye Ling Monastery in Scotland. He then spent 15 years training and teaching in “Great Seal” meditation in an Indo-Tibetan Mahayana lineage under the mentorship of the late senior Western teacher, translator, respected author, and clinical psychologist Dr. Daniel P. Brown. He is also a founding member of the Integral Institute led by esteemed Transpersonal/Integral philosopher, Ken Wilber. John has received advanced training in: attachment therapy, hypnosis, positive psychology for peak performance, and the “Pointing Out” style of Mahamudra meditation. For the last 25 years, John has developed the Fourth Turning Planetary Dharma which includes: a redesigned Nine Stages of Calm-Staying practice path, and a somatically based contemplative practice path; Embodying the Open Ground, that integrates psychodynamic healing, adult development and meditation. John holds a Doctorate in clinical psychology from William James College, and is a practitioner of Traditional Chinese Medicine. Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our --- /episode/index/show/thegreatsimplification/id/42172240

Protect the Irreversible: What Matters Most in an Uncertain Future? | How to Think About the Future Pt 6, Frankly 151 07/17/2026

It's Not Just Hormuz: The Chokepoints Changing Global Shipping Forever with Sal Mercogliano 07/15/2026

It's Not Just Hormuz: The Chokepoints Changing Global Shipping Forever with Sal Mercogliano Roughly a fifth of the world's oil and more than a tenth of all global trade has been navigating a literal minefield, a wary insurance industry, and whipsawing geopolitics since late February of this year. But looking beyond the Strait of Hormuz closure itself, the same pattern threatens every critical chokepoint: passages open to all shipping for the past 80 years are becoming strategic assets within a geopolitical power struggle. If we continue this trend, what does a more fragmented, higher-cost, higher-risk maritime system mean for the norms and safety of the shipping industry, and what are the ripple effects for global trade? In this episode, Nate is joined by maritime historian and former merchant mariner, Sal Mercogliano, to break down what the ongoing events in the Strait of Hormuz reveal about the state of global shipping and trade. Sal traces how the rise of unregistered "dark fleet" tankers and increasing risk – and subsequent cost – of maritime trade are reshaping the safety and stability of shipping across the globe. He also walks through who actually "owns" the Strait of Hormuz, the improvised insurance and security arrangements now propping up tanker traffic, and the human toll on the roughly 20,000 mariners who have been stranded, attacked, or killed since the crisis began. Ultimately, Sal examines how the 80-year-old norm of ‘freedom of the seas’ is being tested by this standoff, exposing the fragile foundation of our hyper-complex, just-in-time shipping system. Why does the volume and velocity of modern trade make a conflict like the one in the Strait of Hormuz so much more consequential than at any other time in history? Is "might makes right" becoming the central pillar governing the world's oceans, and if so, what does that mean for the cost of everything that arrives by ship? And what does this conflict reveal about the stability of our highly interdependent system as global powers continue to fracture and isolate? (Conversation recorded on June 29th, 2026) About Sal Mercogliano: Dr. Salvatore R. Mercogliano is an associate professor of history at Campbell University in North Carolina and adjunct professor at the U.S. Merchant Marine Academy. He holds a bachelor of science in marine transportation from the State University of New York Maritime College, along with a merchant marine deck officer license (unlimited tonnage 2nd mate), a master’s in maritime history and nautical archaeology from East Carolina University, and a Ph.D. in military and naval history from the University of Alabama. He is also the host of the popular podcast What’s Going on With Shipping, which focuses on Maritime Industry Policy, current events in the Maritime Sector, and Maritime History. Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our --- /episode/index/show/thegreatsimplification/id/42084205

Foundations Before Outcomes: The Future Beneath Your Feet | How to Think About the Future Pt 5, Frankly 150 07/10/2026

Can Money Serve Life? How to Fund Communities Doing the Real Work with Matthew Monahan 07/08/2026

Can Money Serve Life? How to Fund Communities Doing the Real Work with Matthew Monahan Every year, hundreds of billions of dollars flow through global philanthropy, yet only a small fraction reaches environmental, climate, and nature-related causes. Meanwhile, in small towns and rural communities around the world, a hidden throughline of regenerative work is already underway. This work rarely waits for large-scale funding to begin, but it does need resourcing to grow into replicable movements capable of propelling system-wide change. What would it take to build financial infrastructure that actually gets capital to the people already doing the work of healing land and community? In this episode, Nate is joined by Matthew Monahan, co-founder of the nonprofit Ma Earth, to explore the emerging field of regenerative finance. Matthew digs into why top-down, siloed, and low-trust funding systems keep capital from reaching frontline communities, and how tools like open protocols, decentralized data commons, and blockchains might (with healthy consideration) help coordinate trust and resourcing at scale. Matthew also discusses Ma Earth’s collective crowdfunding platform that pairs philanthropic dollars with community fundraising for grassroots land and ecological projects – from mangrove restoration in the Pacific to a farmer's cooperative for war amputees in the Congo – and how anyone can become involved. How might we approach the ambitious goal of attuning money with the health of the planet and the life that inhabits it? Is it possible to use tools like blockchain and crowdfunding to route capital toward life without building a bigger version of the same self-eating machine? And can bottom-up, community-defined funding scale to the size of the problem without losing the trust and specificity that make it work in the first place? (Conversation recorded on June 29th, 2026) About Matthew Monahan: Matthew Monahan is the co-founder of Ma Earth, a community-led movement aiming to align economic incentives with planetary health and regeneration. He also hosts The Regeneration Will Be Funded, a podcast under Ma Earth that explores intersections of regenerative finance, technology, and ecological health. He’s involved in regenerative agriculture, specifically through Mangaroa Farms in Aotearoa, New Zealand, a regenerative farm and educational hub. This farm works on transforming dairy & pine plantations into more regenerative systems, reforesting, building local food infrastructure, and engaging communities. Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our --- /episode/index/show/thegreatsimplification/id/41994795

A Legacy Worth Celebrating? Reflecting on 250 Years of the American Experiment | Frankly 149 07/02/2026

Mordor to the Long Repair: How Might Daily Life Feel in the Next Decades? | How to Think About the Future Part 4, Frankly 148 06/26/2026

Mordor to the Long Repair: How Might Daily Life Feel in the Next Decades? | How to Think About the Future Part 4, Frankly 148 This week, Nate continues his “How to Think About the Future” series, where he invites listeners to imagine what it's like to live in different versions of the reality that lies ahead. In today’s edition, Nate builds upon the frameworks outlined in part three to create four distinct future worlds – composites that emerge from various combinations of economic conditions, geopolitical scenarios, power structures, and Earth systems stability. The resulting worlds are not meant to serve as a prediction, but as a set of thought experiments designed to stretch our imagination and to sharpen our understanding of how societal shifts show up in our everyday lives. Along the way, Nate also explores why some of these futures seem more stable than others, why economic contraction does not necessarily mean collapse, and why power distribution may matter more than the economic headlines. As Nate unpacks the logic of the four potential worlds, he emphasizes that we are not yet locked into any one outcome – the choices made by communities, regions, and institutions today still determine which valleys remain reachable tomorrow. This episode is an invitation to think beyond conventional narratives of progress and to consider what conditions make a future not just stable, but worth living in. What would daily life actually feel like in a world of managed contraction, ecological overshoot, authoritarian control, or systemic breakdown? Which institutions and practices are most important to preserve today, while the future remains unwritten? And why might the most desirable future also be the one that looks least like progress by today's economic measures? (Recorded June 9th, 2026) Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our --- /episode/index/show/thegreatsimplification/id/41808985

We Weren't Expecting This: What Does a Super El Niño Mean For the Climate? with Tad Patzek 06/24/2026

We Weren't Expecting This: What Does a Super El Niño Mean For the Climate? with Tad Patzek This year's projected Super El Niño forming in the Pacific could become one of the strongest climate oscillations in over a century. As regions prepare for the effects, and continue to adapt to extreme heat waves, intensifying storms, accelerating ice loss, and increasingly erratic rainfall, scientists and citizens alike are questioning what our new normal will look like under accelerated global heating. From climate basics to unfolding atmospheric research, what do we know about the trajectory our climate is currently on, and what gaps of knowledge still need to be filled? In this episode, Nate is joined by earth scientist and thermodynamicist Tad Patzek for an exploration of the mechanics and mathematics of global heating itself. Tad explains why CO₂ has such an outsized effect in contrast to its small concentration, how water vapor amplifies the greenhouse effect, and why climate models sometimes get things wrong. His new research, currently under peer review at Geophysical Research Letters, identifies a declining Earth albedo as an additional accelerant of warming over the past 26 years. Combined with accelerating ocean heat absorption, melting ice sheets, and the dynamics of an approaching Super El Niño, Tad argues the warming curve itself may be bending upward. Is the projected Super El Niño a signal of more extreme climatic swings to come? What sort of research is being done to explore and predict climate feedback dynamics that are only partly understood? And if the warming curve is indeed bending upward, what does it mean to plan, prepare, or adapt when the system itself may be moving faster than our models anticipated? (Conversation recorded on June 18th, 2026) About Tad Patzek: Tad Patzek is Professor Emeritus of Petroleum and Chemical Engineering at the Earth Sciences Division and Director of the Ali I. Al-Naimi Petroleum Engineering Research Center in KAUST, Saudi Arabia. Formerly, he was the Lois K. and Richard D. Folger Leadership Professor and Chairman of the Petroleum and Geosystems Engineering Department at The University of Texas at Austin. Additionally, he was previously a Professor of Geoengineering at the University of California, Berkeley. Prior to joining Berkeley, he was a researcher at Shell Development, a research company managed for 20 years by M. King Hubbert. He is also a full Presidential Professor in Poland, which is the highest honor, and also served as a member of the DOI Macondo Well Advisory Committee. Patzek’s current research involves mathematical and numerical modeling of earth systems with emphasis on fluid flow in soils and rocks that can be hydrofractured. He is working on the thermodynamics and ecology of human survival, and food and energy supply for humanity. His current emphasis is the use of unconventional natural gas as a fuel bridge to the possible new energy supply schemes for the world. Patzek is a coauthor of over 400 papers and reports, and most recently, he has cumulated his research into his upcoming book Thermal Power and Climate Change: A Data-Driven Analysis of Cause and Effect, 1800-2100 () Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our --- /episode/index/show/thegreatsimplification/id/41750025

How to Play 5D Chess: It's Not What You Think | Frankly 147 06/19/2026

No More Dystopian Stories: How to See a Future Worth Living In with Rob Hopkins 06/17/2026

No More Dystopian Stories: How to See a Future Worth Living In with Rob Hopkins Self-fulfilling prophecies; manifestations; the Oedipus Effect: Humanity has long had an intuition that the stories we tell ourselves the most are often the stories we make come true. Science has found more and more evidence to back this up, through both historical cultural analysis as well as unexpected neurological connections in our brains. If we fully accept this, then what sort of future are we telling with our current cultural narratives, and is there still time to write a new one? In this episode, Nate welcomes Rob Hopkins, co-founder of the Transition Network and author of “How to Fall in Love with the Future,” for an exploration of what tips people over the edge and into action to build more livable futures, and what role imagination plays in cultural motivation and agency. Rob explains the neuroscience behind envisioning the future, explaining the link between memory and imagination, and how chronic stress and cortisol can shrink our capacity to picture the future. Drawing on research showing that creativity and imagination scores have been declining for decades, he argues that our collective inability to vividly picture a better future may be the deepest barrier to building one. Throughout the conversation, Rob and Nate wrestle with a central tension: how to be honest about the scale of the predicament while still cultivating the kind of longing that moves people to act, and what role grief, limits, and slowing down might play in that process. In a culture that puts many of us in constant states of anxiety and stress, what happens to our ability to imagine and dream of the future? What would it take for more of us to feel, not just intellectually understand, that a lower-energy, more localized future could also be a more beautiful one, if only we plant the seeds for it to grow? And if the tools for building more local, resilient futures already exist, but the first step is to create a sense of longing for them, then what gap does that open up in each of our communities, today, to start putting these ideas into action? (Conversation recorded on April 21st, 2026) About Rob Hopkins: Rob Hopkins is the co-founder of Transition Network and of Transition Town Totnes, and author of several books including “The Transition Handbook” and most recently, “How to Fall in Love with the Future: A Time Traveller’s Guide to Changing the World.” He is an Ashoka Fellow, has spoken at TED Global and at several TEDx events, and appeared in the 2015 French film phenomenon “Demain.” He holds a PhD from the University of Plymouth as well as 2 Honoris Causas, and hosted 100 episodes of his podcast “From What If to What Next.” In November 2022 he was made an Honorary Citizen of Liège in Belgium. His collaborative music project with artist Mr Kit, “Field Recordings from the Future” is now available, and is being developed as a live show which will tour in 2026. His website is . Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our --- /episode/index/show/thegreatsimplification/id/41666905

The Ultimate Alternative: Are You Okay With Nuclear Warfare? | Frankly 146 06/16/2026

The U.S. Can't Back Down: The Strait of Hormuz Closure Is Messier Than You Think with Michael Every 06/12/2026

The U.S. Can't Back Down: The Strait of Hormuz Closure Is Messier Than You Think with Michael Every This episode was recorded Tuesday, June 9th, before the current 'deal' was floated. Given world events, we decided to post this episode immediately as a special release, and deal or not, this conversation is an excellent overview of the issues and stakes of this evolving situation. In a media environment constantly contradicting itself, with every side proclaiming the advantage for themselves, the reality of what’s happening in the Middle East gets lost amidst the day-to-day headlines. But for analysts who have been monitoring the underlying trends of the geopolitical gameboard for years, the direction is clear: the conflict over the Strait of Hormuz will likely not fully resolve within the next few months. If we truly accept the consequences of this, how will our global economy – built on interconnected supply chains and cheap energy – adapt to a geopolitical order fracturing before our eyes? In this episode, Nate is joined by Michael Every, Global Strategist at Rabobank, for an unflinching analysis of the Hormuz crisis and the fundamental principles pointing toward the Strait’s closure for several more months. Michael walks through multiple scenarios – a TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out), NATO military action, Chinese intervention behind the scenes – and explains why none of them offer an easy exit. The conversation expands to explore what this crisis means for the future of global energy trade, the emergence of rival production blocs, the collapse of demand-side macroeconomics, and the surprising potential for a more equitable world to emerge from the chaos. If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed or mostly closed into September, which countries hit their breaking point first, and will the order in which they break fundamentally change the balance of geopolitical power? How does everyday life change when price signals stop working and access is defined by availability rather than cost? And if this crisis truly accelerates the fracturing of our hyper-connected, globalized world into polarized blocs of energy and production, how might the disruption, for better or worse, shake up nearly a century of the macroeconomic theory that has shaped every part of our lives? (Conversation recorded on June 9th, 2026) About Michael Every: Michael Every is a Global Strategist at Rabobank with over two decades of experience. He analyzes major financial developments and contributes to the bank’s various economic research publications. Before Rabobank, he was a Director at Silk Road Associates in Bangkok, Senior Economist and Fixed Income Strategist at the Royal Bank of Canada in both London and Sydney, and an Economist for Dun & Bradstreet in London. Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our --- /episode/index/show/thegreatsimplification/id/41616350

Why 'Community' Fails: Everyone Wants a Village, Nobody Wants to Be a Villager with Nora Bateson, Jonathan Goldsmith & Lucas Jackson | RR 26 06/10/2026

Why 'Community' Fails: Everyone Wants a Village, Nobody Wants to Be a Villager with Nora Bateson, Jonathan Goldsmith & Lucas Jackson | RR 26 Many of us lack meaningful community in our lives, either from a complete absence of relationships or simply the sense of disconnection from those around us. In response, a growing number of people attempt to cultivate community based on shared values and interests, which inadvertently reproduces the very labeling that keeps real connection forming. The systemic forces that created this separation are real, but what if the deeper problem is that most of us have never actually learned how to commune with each other in the first place? In this episode, Nate is joined by Nora Bateson, creator of Warm Data Labs, alongside her colleagues Jonathan Goldsmith and Lucas Jackson, for a rich conversation about what it actually takes to build community and why so many of our attempts fail. Drawing on Nora's concept of "communing" as the necessary precursor to community, the group explores how genuine human connection is being undermined by algorithmic fragmentation, scripted discourse, and cultures rooted in transaction and individualism. Rather than offering a formula for community-building, they make the case for something older: practices of mutual learning, radical hospitality, and a way of relating to others that breaks us out of the confines of our perceived roles. Together, they argue that the first step to being part of community is letting go of preconceived notions of what you are owed from the people around you, instead taking the first leap of giving more of oneself, and subsequently setting in motion the cycles of trust and generosity that keep a system alive. What fundamental pieces get lost when communities skip directly to organizing, logistics, and shared objectives? Why do the dark triad traits find less hold in spaces built around curiosity and mutual learning? And how does the act of generosity shift when it comes from a sense of shared aliveness and the knowledge that tending to the broader whole is how we must also tend to ourselves? About Nora Bateson Nora Bateson is a filmmaker, writer, researcher, and educator, and the founder and president of the International Bateson Institute. Her work focuses on the study of complex living systems and the development of "Warm Data" – a methodology for understanding the relational and contextual dimensions of systemic health. She is the author of Small Arcs of Larger Circles, and the creator of the acclaimed documentary An Ecology of Mind, a portrait of her father, systems thinker Gregory Bateson. Nora's work spans education, ecology, health, organizational change, and community, with the unifying thread of asking how we perceive and tend to the complexity of life together. About Jonathan Goldsmith Jonathan Goldsmith is a therapist, facilitator, and educator working at the intersection of systems thinking, relational practice, and community wellbeing. As a core member of the International Bateson Institute team, Jonathan brings the lens of mutual learning and ecological awareness to his work with individuals, groups, and organizations. He is a trained Warm Data host and has facilitated labs internationally. About Lucas Jackson Lucas Jackson is an educator, facilitator, and Warm Data host based in Vermont. He found his way to the International Bateson Institute through the Warm Data host training in 2020, and has since woven the practice of Warm Data into his teaching, community work, and relational life. His work centers on learning, perception, and the conditions that allow people to genuinely encounter one another. Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our --- /episode/index/show/thegreatsimplification/id/41588015

How to Think About the Future (Part 3): Uphill Futures in a Downhill World | Frankly 145 06/05/2026

The Missing Half of Climate Change: Why Our Planet is at 50% Capacity and How to Get it Back with Brett KenCairn 06/03/2026

The Missing Half of Climate Change: Why Our Planet is at 50% Capacity and How to Get it Back with Brett KenCairn The Dust Bowl of the 1930s is one of the worst ecological disasters in American history. Across the great plains, roughly 2.5 million people left the region over the decade, amid severe crop failures, livestock losses and widespread hunger. Caused by drought and extreme land degradation, this regional collapse is also an example of what is now happening in ecosystems across the globe. The glimmer of hope in this story lies in the equally remarkable recovery of the Dust Bowl region, which has continued on as one of the most productive agricultural regions in the world. What if we could name and replicate the techniques used to rehabilitate this once inhospitable landscape and use them to restore and regenerate local ecosystems across the planet? In this episode, Nate is joined by regenerative change practitioner Brett KenCairn for a conversation that reframes the dominant narrative about climate change, emphasizing that it was never just a carbon problem but also one centered on living systems degradation. Brett explains that the desolation of foundational, life-supporting ecosystems has resulted in our planet now operating at roughly half its biological productive capacity. Remarkably, this reframing also clears the way for a path forward: because most degradation is due to how humans have used the land, it means – if we act soon – altering our use of the land can also help regenerate lost capacity. Brett describes how his team and other regenerative experts are attempting to do just that by restoring biodiversity, water cycles, photosynthetic capacity, and (most importantly) opening the door to broad community participation through training, compensation, and meaningful work. What sorts of regenerative techniques might help bolster our local ecosystems’ capacities to buffer, absorb, and cycle energy in order to support life during the extremes ahead? How could we alter our economic and social incentives to better support those doing the critical work to stabilize local ecology? And lastly, could the principles of living systems regeneration also act as an opportunity to reconnect with our place among the web of life, paving the way toward a humanity rooted in stewardship and reciprocity? (Conversation recorded on May 13th, 2026) About Brett KenCairn: Brett KenCairn is the Founding Director of Center for Regenerative Solutions and Senior Policy Advisor for Climate and Resilience in the City of Boulder’s Climate Initiatives Team. He coordinates the city’s nature-based solutions work. Brett has worked across the western US in community-based initiatives in rural, Native American, and other marginalized communities. He is the co-founder of multiple organizations including the Rogue River Institute for Ecology and Economy, Veterans Green Jobs, and Community Energy Systems. Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our --- /episode/index/show/thegreatsimplification/id/41512645

Casting Call for a Future Frankly 06/01/2026

A Word I Can’t Seem to Understand: Non-Duality and Our Living World | Frankly 144 05/29/2026

Darkness Deficit Disorder: How Constant Stimulation Has Shaped our Consumption with Andrew Holecek 05/27/2026

Darkness Deficit Disorder: How Constant Stimulation Has Shaped our Consumption with Andrew Holecek Most responses to civilizational crises focus outward – policy levers, energy systems, geopolitical actors, and material flows – with little focus on how the humans inside these systems might change and grow in parallel. At the same time, the minds that built this complex and fragile world are also the instruments we must use to navigate its unraveling, making them a critical factor in defining humanity’s future. With that said, who will we be as simplification unfolds, and how do we prepare our inner terrains for what’s coming? In this episode, Nate is joined by meditation practitioner, Andrew Holecek, for an exploration of the concept of dark retreats, periods of extended time in complete absence of light, as a practical path toward reflection and reconnection with ourselves and others. Andrew draws on decades of study in Tibetan Buddhism and non-dual wisdom traditions to explore how the external complexity of modern life is mirrored in the internal complexity of the modern mind. Central to his work is the concept of non-duality: a return from the fragmented display of self-versus-world toward a more unified, less suffering-prone relationship with reality. Andrew and Nate also explore the misleading entanglement of happiness and consumption, arguing that satisfaction arises not from acquiring what we want, but from the cessation of wanting itself. What would it mean to practice darkness as a needed reprieve from constant light and stimulation, rather than deprivation? If the coming decades hold a forced reduction in external, material complexity, how could a deepening of our internal worlds make us more resilient, compassionate, and grounded? And could confronting fear – by learning to move through it rather than avoid it – be one of the most practical preparations for navigating future uncertainty and social fracture? (Conversation recorded on April 28th, 2026) About Dr. Andrew Holecek: Andrew Holecek is an interdisciplinary scholar-practitioner in Tibetan Buddhism and other nondual wisdom traditions who has spent over thirty years helping people transform life’s greatest challenges into opportunities for awakening. A dedicated meditation practitioner who completed the traditional Tibetan Buddhist three-year retreat, Andrew is known for making profound contemplative practices accessible and practical. He is actively involved in scientific research on dark retreat with the University of Wisconsin-Madison, as well as the Institute for Advanced Consciousness Studies where he serves as Resident Contemplative Scholar. Andrew is a member of the American Academy of Sleep Medicine, the author of several scientific papers on lucid dreaming, and was also the host of the now-concluded Edge of Mind podcast, where he interviewed guests to explore ancient teachings and modern topics about the nature of mind and reality. Andrew’s newest area of focus is dark retreat, the ancient Buddhist practice of extended meditation in complete darkness. His most recent book, , draws on more than thirty years of personal dark retreat experience. True to his approach, Andrew teaches dark retreat – and the more accessible gray retreat practice of weaving in and out of darkness – as a genuine path to healing, creativity, and self-understanding. Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our --- /episode/index/show/thegreatsimplification/id/41428120

A Guide to Staying Human (Part 3): Why Mindfulness Matters When the World Is Breaking Down 05/22/2026

A Guide to Staying Human (Part 3): Why Mindfulness Matters When the World Is Breaking Down In this week’s Frankly, Nate offers the third episode in his series on staying human, this time focused on presence. Nate shares a personal reflection on presence, and its importance in a reality where we are constantly living in anticipation of the future. What begins as a missed moment of coffee and a birdsong unfolds into an examination of the brain’s “default mode network” – one of the most studied structures in neuroscience, which supports functions like memory, future simulation, self-narrative, and wandering thought. Drawing from neuroscience, contemplative traditions, and his own decades spent modeling civilizational risk, Nate examines how the modern world – especially for those immersed in the metacrisis – pulls attention away from lived experience and into endless internal simulations about collapse, uncertainty, and what comes next. He also reflects on the emotional burden carried by people who are deeply aware of ecological decline, social instability, and systemic fragility, while questioning the widely held assumption that constant preoccupation is equivalent to care. Through stories, research, and practical reflections, Nate offers five pathways back to embodied awareness through using sensory attention, taking pause, single-tasking, remaining open to beauty, and embracing the finitude of life itself. Ultimately, this episode asks whether protecting the future requires us to stop abandoning the present – and whether presence itself may be one of the most necessary forms of resilience in the years ahead. How does the brain’s default mode network shape our experience of dread, distraction, and time? What do we lose when awareness of the metacrisis becomes a form of absence from our own lives? And how can people engaged in difficult, world-facing work use strategies to remain emotionally present for the relationships and moments directly in front of them? (Recorded May 18th, 2026) Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our --- /episode/index/show/thegreatsimplification/id/41386475

Learning in a Way that Actually Matters: Why Standardized Testing Contributed to the Metacrisis – and How to Fix It with Theo Dawson & Zak Stein | RR 25 05/20/2026

Learning in a Way that Actually Matters: Why Standardized Testing Contributed to the Metacrisis – and How to Fix It with Theo Dawson & Zak Stein | RR 25 Over the past century, standardized testing evolved from a wartime sorting tool into the defining feature of how we measure children's worth and potential, fundamentally altering the mental health and learning outcomes of an entire generation. Now, as global crises mount and our leaders struggle to navigate staggering complexity, a growing number of researchers are asking: what if the root cause of civilizational dysfunction is something as upstream and innately human as the way we educate our children? In this episode, Nate is joined by developmental psychologist Dr. Theo Dawson alongside returning guest and philosopher of education Dr. Zak Stein to explore the history of educational testing and show how we’ve progressively narrowed our definition of learning while stunting the very mental capacities we most need. Together, they make the case that without restoring the developmental health of the next generation, no amount of policy reform or technological innovation will be sufficient to change humanity’s current trajectory. At the core of this argument, they discuss the need to pivot our testing and developmental measurements toward those that foster mental complexity, individual growth, and fundamental human skills, ultimately leveraging change through the entire educational system. Both guests emphasize the central importance of cultivating an "earned sense of competence" – the deep, embodied confidence that comes from learning through genuine engagement with the world – which they believe is the most powerful resource a civilization can regenerate. What are the effects on critical thinking and development as a result of years of memorization and high stakes testing? How might reframing the goals of our educational systems toward cultivating human flourishing help both average citizens and those in power make better decisions for the whole of society? And if education truly shapes everything from geopolitics to economic behavior, what would it require of us to treat the next generation as civilization's most precious resource as we continue to face more societal and ecological turbulence? (Conversation recorded on March 25th, 2026) About Theo Dawson: Dr. Theo Dawson is the founder and executive director of Lectica, a nonprofit organization that develops evidence-based developmental assessments and builds knowledge about learning and its role in the future of society. She received her master's and PhD from the University of California at Berkeley and is widely published in the field of cognitive developmental psychology. About Zak Stein: Dr. Zak Stein is a philosopher of education and co-founder of Lectica. He is also co-founder of the Center for World Philosophy and Religion, the Civilization Research Institute, and the Consilience Project. He is the author of dozens of published papers and two books, including Education in a Time Between Worlds. Zak received his Doctor of Education from Harvard University. Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our --- /episode/index/show/thegreatsimplification/id/41352750

A Guide to Staying Human (Part 2): Navigating Dread and Carrying the Weight of Tomorrow | Frankly 142 05/15/2026

A World On the Precipice: The Last Oil Tanker From the Strait of Hormuz has Arrived – Now What? with Art Berman 05/13/2026

A World On the Precipice: The Last Oil Tanker From the Strait of Hormuz has Arrived – Now What? with Art Berman The last pre-war shipments of oil products from the Strait of Hormuz have arrived at their destinations as of early May, meaning the promise of an energy crisis as a result of the Iran war is fast approaching. Leading experts are now forecasting energy disruptions ranging from rationing to severe shortages in import-dependent economies, with roughly 11% of global oil supply already offline. This leaves us with the question: even if this war were to end today, what sort of system-wide effects are locked in given the current loss in production, and what will be required of us to cope with the fallout? In this episode, Nate welcomes back petroleum geologist Art Berman to break down the timeline of the looming oil shortages stemming from the Strait of Hormuz crisis and just how severe they could become within a tightly coupled, complex global system. Art explains why, even if the war were to end today, the inherent lags in our industrial supply chains mean shortfalls are already baked into the coming months. The resulting rise in energy prices will reach far beyond the pump, rippling out into the cost of virtually everything and confronting much of the world with conditions not seen in over five decades. Ultimately, Art sees this as a forcing mechanism that could compress decades of needed adjustment into months. The outcome will rely less on policy than on whether societies can absorb the shock without breaking. Amid all the speculation about oil prices in the wake of the Iranian conflict, what do these numbers actually mean in physical terms? If this conflict signals the beginning of a long-term decline in energy availability, are we already past the peak of the global material economy, with the financial layer not yet caught up to the physics? And if this conflict signals the beginning of a long-term decline in energy availability, what lessons from our deep past might help us find our way forward? (Conversation recorded on May 6th, 2026) About Art Berman: Art Berman is a petroleum geologist with over 40 years of oil and gas industry experience. He is an expert on U.S. shale plays and is currently consulting for several E&P companies and capital groups in the energy sector. Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our --- /episode/index/show/thegreatsimplification/id/41266015

Wide Boundary News: Sacrificing Wilderness, Oil Data Propaganda, and Feeding the Superorganism's Brain 05/08/2026

Wide Boundary News: Sacrificing Wilderness, Oil Data Propaganda, and Feeding the Superorganism's Brain This week’s Frankly is another edition of Wide Boundary News, where Nate invites listeners to view the constant churn of headlines through a wider-boundary lens. He begins with the misleading framing of recent oil production statistics by the United States, which blurs distinctions between crude oil and broader petroleum products. Nate uses this as a case study in how data can be technically correct, yet structurally misleading – particularly when used for political storytelling. The lens widens as he considers whether the peak of the carbon pulse could pass without clear public understanding, especially as access to the underlying data becomes more restricted and fragmented. Nate then moves into the geopolitical and physical consequences of energy strain, focusing on Iran and the Strait of Hormuz as a critical chokepoint in global oil flows. He connects ongoing disruptions not only to price spikes, but also to how energy functions as a security commodity. These disruptions also extend into cascading effects on food systems, as things like fertilizer supply and cooking fuel reverse in access and affordability. Moving closer to home, Nate discusses the opening of Minnesota’s Boundary Waters for copper-nickel mining, highlighting the tension between ecosystem protection and demand for mineral inputs to power any magnitude of energy transition. He also touches on the rapid expansion of AI data centers and the large share of electricity they use, framing this trend as the economic Superorganism diverting massive energy flows toward its cognitive layer, rather than only its muscular layer. Finally, Nate closes with a reflection on industrial livestock productivity as another expression of a system optimized for high output, but operating under energy conditions that may no longer hold. Why do we need to think about energy as a security commodity? How much of our future depends on being told the truth? And what have we bred for – in cows, seed varieties, supply chains, cities, and financial systems – that we will not be able to feed, medicate, or transport on the backside of the carbon pulse? (Recorded May 5th, 2026) Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our --- /episode/index/show/thegreatsimplification/id/41211015

Why Each American Lives Like a 40-Ton Whale: Power, Overshoot, and Climate with Tad Patzek 05/06/2026

Why Each American Lives Like a 40-Ton Whale: Power, Overshoot, and Climate with Tad Patzek Many of us were taught that humans have been the dominant force shaping the modern world through sheer grit, ingenuity, and innovation. While true to an extent, there are also deep, embedded laws of energy that have both constrained and enabled human cleverness and our influence over our surroundings. What exactly are these laws, and what happened in the past few centuries that allowed for an explosion of technology and consumption? Perhaps more importantly, how can that knowledge help us understand how the decades and centuries ahead might be different? In this episode, Nate is joined by earth scientist and thermodynamicist Tad Patzek for a deep dive into the mathematics and physics driving humanity's energetic and material predicament. Tad walks us through the six great flows of power and materials that keep civilization running, and explains why our public conversation about all of them is dangerously detached from physical reality. He argues that planetary breakdown is not merely a side effect of an economic system built on growing these flows – it is a direct mathematical consequence of overshoot. He rounds out this picture by pointing out that every energy transition in history has been additive, not subtractive – increasing total power in the system – and the current push toward renewables is no exception. What if we were to truly see ourselves through the lens of all the energy we consume – for Americans, the equivalent of a 40-ton whale – would that change how we live? How do technology, population, and per capita energy consumption amplify each other, creating an exponential demand for power? And if we were to acknowledge the inseparability of our ecological crises and our energy blindness, would it help us change our behavior in accordance with the kind of world we'd want our grandchildren to inherit? (Conversation recorded on March 11th, 2026)\ About Tad Patzek: Tad Patzek is Professor Emeritus of Petroleum and Chemical Engineering at the Earth Sciences Division and Director of the Ali I. Al-Naimi Petroleum Engineering Center in KAUST, Saudi Arabia. Formerly, he was the Lois K. and Richard D. Folger Leadership Professor and Chairman of the Petroleum and Geosystems Engineering Department at The University of Texas at Austin. Additionally, he was previously a Professor of Geoengineering at the University of California, Berkeley. Prior to joining Berkeley, he was a researcher at Shell Development, a research company managed for 20 years by M. King Hubbert. He is also a full Presidential Professor in Poland, which is the highest honor, and also served as a member of the DOI Macondo Well Advisory Committee. Patzek’s current research involves mathematical and numerical modeling of earth systems with emphasis on fluid flow in soils and rocks that can be hydrofractured. He is working on the thermodynamics and ecology of human survival, and food and energy supply for humanity. His current emphasis is the use of unconventional natural gas as a fuel bridge to the possible new energy supply schemes for the world. Patzek is a coauthor of over 400 papers and reports, and most recently, he has cumulated his research into his upcoming book Thermal Power and Climate Change: A Data-Driven Analysis of Cause and Effect, 1800-2100 () Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our --- /episode/index/show/thegreatsimplification/id/41165520

A Perspective From Lebanon: Who Will We Be When Things Get Hard? | Frankly 140 05/01/2026

The Great Simplification with Nate Hagens

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