Vanguard’s Return Forecasts Explained: What the Percentiles Really Mean with Kevin DiCiurcio (EP.241)

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In this episode, Peter sits down with Vanguard’s Kevin DiCiurcio to unpack how Vanguard thinks about long-term return forecasts—and why the percentiles in those tables are the part most investors misunderstand. They go behind the scenes of the Vanguard Capital Markets Model (VCMM), and translate what it’s really saying into practical guidance for planning and portfolio decisions.

Listen now and learn:

► How Vanguard builds and governs its capital markets model—and what it’s designed to do (and not do)

► A simple way to interpret percentiles without turning them into predictions

► What changes when you shift from a 10-year lens to a 30-year lens

► The key portfolio implications Kevin thinks long-term investors should be paying attention to

 

Visit www.TheLongTermInvestor.com for show notes, free resources, and a place to submit questions.

 

(00:00) Introduction

(02:16) What the Vanguard Capital Markets Model (VCMM) Is—and Why Return Assumptions Matter 

(04:04) How Vanguard Wants Investors to Use VCMM: Expectations, Risk Trade-Offs, and Smarter Allocation Decisions 

(09:27) How Vanguard Builds the Forecasts—and the Capital Market Assumption Approaches They Didn’t Rely on Alone 

(15:08) How to Read Percentiles, 10-Year vs 30-Year Forecasts, and What Vanguard Likes Most Right Now 

(29:21) The Performance-Chasing Problem: When Investors Suddenly Want More International Again 

(30:05) AI, Mega Trends, and Three Scenarios: Why Economic Upside Doesn’t Guarantee Stock Market Upside 

(34:31) Geopolitics and Markets: Why It’s Not a Direct Forecast Input, But Still Shapes Long-Term Premia 

(37:48) The 2026 Signposts: What Would Actually Change Vanguard’s Conviction and Move the Outlook 

(39:32) What Vanguard’s Capital Markets Research Team Is Focused on Next—and Why Ranges Beat False Precision 

 

Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (⁠https://thepodcastconsultant.com⁠)

 

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