2026 outlook: John Cole Scott on what '26 holds for closed-end funds
Release Date: 12/26/2025
John Cole Scott: BDC worries are creating headlines, opportunities
The NAVigator
The stock market has been beating up business-development companies, with the sell-off largely being blamed on the artificial intelligence boom and the high number of loans that BDCs make to software firms. Behind the theory that software companies will struggle to pay debts as artificial intelligence renders their products less useful and attractive, there are real loans, and John Cole Scott, President of , digs into the math that is impacting the lenders and BDCs in general. Scott, who also serves as Chairman of the , discusses two BDCs and shows how the headlines could be creating values...
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John Cole Scott evaluates Robinhood's new private-stock closed-end fund
The NAVigator
Robinhood Markets is launching its first closed-end fund, Robinhood Ventures Fund I, with the first IPO the closed-end fund space has seen in about four years and John Cole Scott, President of , sizes up the prospects for the new issue, which intends to be a concentrated portfolio of private companies. Scott, the chairman of the , discusses the role private equities can play in a portfolio, as well as the challenges investors face in sizing up a fund with a net asset value entirely based on the purported market value of shares that don't trade in public markets.
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Saratoga's Oberbeck: Headline troubles aren't signalling systemic credit issues
The NAVigator
, chairman and chief executive officer at , says that increases in default rates are more of a return to normal than a sign of trouble for business-development companies or the economy. While stories like the First Brands bankruptcy and fraud case have market watchers looking for more trouble, the rest of the headlines in the industry are much more routine, which leads Oberbeck to think that recent activity is more a hangover coming from a time of particularly low defaults, rather than a sign of the start of a bad business cycle.
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Trinity Capital's Brown sees BDC opportunity amid investor frustration
The NAVigator
Kyle Brown, Chief Executive Officer at , gives his outlook for the private credit and lending space, and notes that there could be some challenges for business development companies and private lenders late in the current economic cycle because returns from private credit generally have been declining. That has meant single-digit leveraged returns, Brown says, so "Investors are not happy." That, in turn, has led to redemptions in private funds and falling stock prices. Still, Brown says, that has created some opportunities for lenders and investors who keep digging to find gems; he sees the...
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Aberdeen's Robinson on how emerging markets are now an AI play
The NAVigator
Nick Robinson, Deputy Head of Global Emerging Market Equities at , says that the artificial intelligence wave that has pushed domestic stock markets to record highs is readily apparent around the world — including in countries that are not necessarily synonymous with technology — and that the capital expenditure wave should continue to power foreign markets if companies can monetize the potential gains created by AI. He also discusses how markets are weathering geopolitical events and why he thinks they will continue to push higher despite nervous headlines.
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John Cole Scott on 4th-quarter results and a hot new year's start for closed-end funds
The NAVigator
John Cole Scott, President of , reviews the key takeaways from his firm's fourth-quarter review of action in the closed-end fund industry, focusing on fund consolidation trends that have occurred in the middle of booming asset growth for the industry, as well as discount levels and whether narrowing discounts set up 2026 for more muted results. Scott, the chairman of the , also noted that a number of closed-end fund categories are off to a fast start to the new year, and while areas like international equities and convertible bonds are continuing strong performance from 2025, other areas like...
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Nuveen's Davis on what '25 has set up for closed -end funds in the year ahead
The NAVigator
Stephen Davis, closed-end fund product specialist at , says that while 2025 was a strong year for closed-end fund performance, price returns exceeded net asset value (NAV) gains, reflecting a narrowing of discounts, continuing a trend from 2024. Those narrower discounts will make it harder for that broad trend to continue in 2026, but he noted that municipal bonds and senior loans are two areas that should provide promising opportunities. Davis noted that 2025 saw significant merger and rights offering activity, a trend he expects to continue in the new year.
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XA's Flynn on how interval fund indexes change the game
The NAVigator
Kimberly Flynn, President at , discussed the just-launched XAI Interval Fund Credit Index, which tracks the performance of non-listed closed-end interval funds and tender offer funds in the alternative-credit space, and how having the benchmark should help investors as they look at adding private credit and other alternatives to their portfolios. Flynn says the new index — which is not currently investable, so it is not the basis for a fund — is a sister to a broad interval fund index the firm introduced last year, both reflecting the growth in interval funds and in advisers' interest in...
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The year in review: John Cole Scott looks at his his 2025 predictions worked out
The NAVigator
John Cole Scott, President of , reviews the forecasts he made a year ago for 2025, grading his wins and losses on everything from inflation levels and Treasury yields to discount levels and the outcome in various sectors of the closed-end fund industry. Scott, the chairman of the , also reviews the five funds he identified as buys for 2025 and how they turned out.
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2026 outlook: John Cole Scott on what '26 holds for closed-end funds
The NAVigator
John Cole Scott, President of , climbs his mountain of data to get a great view on the year ahead, and he's forecasting no recession, lower inflation and modest GDP growth for 2026, with less volatility coming from the rate picture but more market tension due to the global macro picture. Scott, who also serves as chairman of the , also discusses what he sees happening in the closed-end fund industry, from the growth he expects to see in assets to the activism picture, down to what he foresees in leverage, return of capital and more. Plus, he's got five funds he's expecting big things from in...
info_outlineJohn Cole Scott, President of CEF Advisors, climbs his mountain of data to get a great view on the year ahead, and he's forecasting no recession, lower inflation and modest GDP growth for 2026, with less volatility coming from the rate picture but more market tension due to the global macro picture. Scott, who also serves as chairman of the Active Investment Company Alliance, also discusses what he sees happening in the closed-end fund industry, from the growth he expects to see in assets to the activism picture, down to what he foresees in leverage, return of capital and more. Plus, he's got five funds he's expecting big things from in the new year.