544: Why the Sahm Rule Matters — and Why the Big Picture Matters More

This week’s episode of Wealth Formula features an interview with Claudia Sahm, and I want to share a quick takeaway before you listen — because she’s often misunderstood in the headlines.

First, a quick explanation of the Sahm Rule, in plain English.

The rule looks at unemployment and asks a very simple question:
Has the unemployment rate started rising meaningfully from its recent low?

Specifically, if the three-month average unemployment rate rises by 0.5% or more above its lowest level over the past year, the Sahm Rule is triggered. Historically, that has happened early in every U.S. recession since World War II.

That’s why it gets cited so much.

And to be clear — it’s cited a lot.

The Sahm Rule is tracked by the Federal Reserve, Treasury economists, Wall Street banks, macro funds, and economic research shops globally. When it triggers, it shows up everywhere. That’s not by accident. Claudia built one of the cleanest early-warning indicators we have.

But here’s the part that often gets lost.

The Sahm Rule is not a market-timing tool and it’s not a prediction machine. Claudia emphasized this repeatedly. It was designed as a policy signal — a way to say, “Hey, if unemployment is rising this fast, waiting too long to respond makes things worse.”

In other words, it’s a call to action for policymakers, not a command for investors to panic.

What makes this cycle unusual — and why talking to Claudia directly was so helpful — is what’s actually driving the data.

We’re not seeing mass layoffs. Layoffs remain low by historical standards. What we’re seeing instead is very weak hiring. Companies aren’t firing people — they’re just not expanding.

That distinction matters.

And this is where I think the big picture comes in — not just for understanding the economy, but for investing in general.

When you step back, the big picture includes a government with massive debt loads that needs interest rates to come down over time. It includes fiscal pressures that make prolonged high rates politically and economically painful. And it includes the reality that if the current Fed leadership won’t ease fast enough, future leadership will.

History tells us that governments eventually get the monetary conditions they need — even if it takes time, even if it takes new appointments, and even if it takes a shift toward a more dovish Federal Reserve.

That doesn’t mean reckless money printing tomorrow. But it does mean that structurally high rates are unlikely to be permanent.

And when you combine that with investing, the question becomes less about this month’s headline and more about what’s positioned to benefit when the environment normalizes.

That’s why I continue to focus on real assets that are already deeply discounted — things like multifamily real estate — assets that were repriced brutally during the rate shock, but still sit at the center of a growing, rent-dependent economy.

This conversation with Claudia reinforced something I’ve been talking about for a long time:
The biggest investing mistakes usually happen when people zoom in too far and forget to zoom back out. I’ve made this mistake myself.

If you want a thoughtful, non-sensational, data-driven discussion about where we actually are in this cycle — and what the indicators really mean — I think you’ll get a lot out of this episode.