What is the U-shaped Curve of Prison—And Why Does It Trap So Many People?
Release Date: 09/09/2025
White Collar Advice
After my daughter’s basketball game, someone pulled me aside and said I work with “criminals.” Years ago, I would’ve argued. Now I listen. Before prison, I would’ve said the same thing. A DOJ press release tells one side. That’s it. I asked him how he saw me—as a father, a husband. Then I asked how he would’ve seen me 20 years ago reading my indictment. The answer was obvious. People aren’t frozen at their worst moment. I’ve watched men rebuild after creating their own crisis. I’m proud to call them friends. Judges—formal or informal—should look at the record being...
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A few weeks in, it hit me: this was my life for a while. Then I saw something worse. Men serving short sentences—two years for tax crimes—were terrified to go home. Like The Shawshank Redemption, they feared life outside more than prison. Lost licenses. Restitution they couldn’t pay. No income. I met Michael Santos, who had served 22 years. He showed me that avoiding responsibility—hiding in workouts and routine—leads to lifelong damage. Prison ends. The consequences don’t unless you change your behavior and document it. That lesson changed how I prepared for release—and my...
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I tell people this straight: shorter sentences don’t start with credentials. They start with acceptance. Judges look for proof that you understand your role, that you’re part of the solution, and that you’re building a record showing you won’t be back in another courtroom. Too many defendants lean on a lawyer’s past—former prosecutor, knows the judge, worked in that office. That doesn’t change how you are perceived. In my experience, an engaged defender paired with documented behavior change matters more than pedigree. If you want mitigation, you have to earn it. Join our every...
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I’ve seen this pattern over and over. When someone commits a crime and doesn’t get caught right away, the fear doesn’t fade—it grows. Every knock, every phone call feels like the end. That anxiety eats at people. I’ve had clients tell me they walked into the U.S. Attorney’s office because they couldn’t live waiting for a 6 a.m. arrest anymore. The stress was worse than the consequences. That fear drives decisions, often bad ones, if you don’t slow down and think. If you’re under investigation, don’t let panic decide for you. Learn how to respond before you act. Join our ...
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I remember standing in a brokerage HR room watching a senior broker brag about raising $15–$20 million in a day. The truth came out fast. Junior brokers washed out, and he absorbed their accounts—$3 million here, $5 million there. No mentoring. Just consolidation. That moment showed me how growth really worked in that environment. Advancement wasn’t about teaching or ethics. It was about surviving long enough to take someone else’s book. That realization shaped the bad decisions that followed. If you’re under investigation, understand the system you’re in—and how incentives work....
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I was asked by a journalist to weigh in on claims that James Comey and Letitia James were victims of a two-tiered system. My answer surprised her. In 16 years, I’ve seen thousands of federal cases. Even with the best lawyers money can buy, I’ve seen one case dismissed. One. Dismissals are almost nonexistent. When high-profile defendants get their cases tossed, that’s the exception—not the rule. A sympathetic judge and a compelling narrative matter more than outrage. Don’t plan your future around rare outcomes. Prepare for what usually happens. Join our every Tuesday at 11AM Pacific...
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After 16 years in this space, patterns repeat. I describe a former U.S. Attorney—now a defense lawyer—calling a false-statements case “ridiculous.” The irony? He once brought the same kind of case as a prosecutor. Not because it was justice, but because he could. False-statement cases are easy to charge and hard to undo. DOJ data shows they’re often stacked to increase leverage, not clarity. Assuming a case will “get dropped” is how people misjudge risk and lose control. Understand incentives, not excuses. Prepare accordingly. Join our every Tuesday at 11AM Pacific / 2PM Eastern...
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Walking the track at a minimum-security camp isn’t what defines your future. What comes after release does. People who assume prison is the finish line usually struggle most when the structure disappears. Literature matters in prison because it puts suffering in context. Reading about people who endured war, poverty, or decades of confinement—and still rebuilt—changes how you see your own situation. Justin’s example is blunt: compared to people with no family support or education, many white-collar defendants start with advantages they ignore. Prison doesn’t have to define you. What...
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Small choices carry consequences inside federal prison. Gambling tied to recreational sports leads to injuries, debts, and disciplinary shots. Gossip and constant complaining create enemies fast. One common mistake is venting about a short sentence—off-putting when bunkmates may be serving ten years or more. Time alone matters. It reduces exposure to conflict and bad decisions. Keep distance from staff. They aren’t confidants, and casual comments can become reports. In federal prisons, many incident reports start with unnecessary conversation, not violence. Keep your head down. Control...
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When people panic, they talk. They explain inconsistencies, justify decisions, and try to “clear things up.” That usually backfires. In one real case, a defendant already under indictment took a call from a former colleague—unaware that the caller was cooperating with the government. The cooperator was coached to call, ask questions, and even lie if needed. The defendant opened up. Weeks later, prosecutors filed a superseding indictment. That single call made his situation worse. Assume everyone has an agenda. Silence protects you. Join our every Tuesday at 11AM Pacific / 2PM Eastern....
info_outlineIn this episode, I share what I learned inside federal prison about how people adjust, why so many regret their time, and how the U-shaped curve explains it. Early on, I spent my days exercising until Michael Santos asked me how much I’d earn for doing pull ups. That question, along with watching friends panic as release drew near, pushed me to shift. I cut down exercise, started writing, lined up work opportunities, and built something I could show to probation and future employers. Too many people coast at the bottom of the U and then face release with no plan, full of anxiety and regret. I don’t want that for you. If you want to hear more about this adjustment, listen to the podcast version, and you can also read the full blog on White Collar Advice.
Justin Paperny