Global Elections in Focus: The Impact on Investors and the World Economy
Release Date: 09/09/2024
Balancing Growth, Costs, and Geopolitics in Airlines
The Outthinking Investor
Airlines represent one of the most challenging and complex industries in today’s economy. With thousands of flights moving people and cargo around the world every day, airlines manage a “complicated logistical dance,” as Oscar Munoz, United Airlines’ former Chairman and CEO, tells us in this episode of The Outthinking Investor. The airline industry has adapted and evolved through technological innovation, consolidation, regulatory changes, and an increasingly competitive transportation sector—providing universal lessons for businesses and investors. Amid a turbulent outlook, this...
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Tariffs, Sanctions & Chokepoints: Investing in an Age of Economic Warfare
The Outthinking Investor
Critical shipping routes around the world, from the Panama Canal to the Bosphorus Strait, hold strategic importance for global trade. As a result, these chokepoints are often caught in the crosshairs of geopolitical competition. But in a new age of economic warfare, invisible chokepoints are also emerging. The dominance of the US dollar, economic sanctions, and tariffs on imported goods can all be leveraged to achieve political goals. Meanwhile, nations are laying out plans to increase defense spending—potentially altering the outlook for productivity, industrial activity, and economic...
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Trading Up: How Active ETFs Revolutionized Investing
The Outthinking Investor
Exploring the continued evolution of the ETF landscape, fueled by rapid growth in active ETFs and an expanding universe of investment choices. ETFs, or exchange-traded funds, were born out of a need for greater market liquidity following the 1987 stock market crash known as Black Monday. US regulators determined that institutions needed the ability to trade stocks more efficiently and cost-effectively during trading days. In 1993, the first ETF in the US emerged: SPY. With one trade, investors could buy or sell a basket of stocks that tracked companies in the S&P 500. ETFs have since...
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Raising the Stakes: Investing and the Art of Risk Taking
The Outthinking Investor
With a standard deck of cards, there are around 2.5 million potential hands at the start of each game of poker. The key to success is in the decision process—determining how to play a hand, and how much to bet, despite not knowing which cards are in another player’s hand. Like in poker, every investment decision includes at least some degree of uncertainty. What lessons can poker teach investors about sizing their bets, managing risk, and making better decisions for their portfolio? This episode is not intended to promote gambling or equate investing to gambling. This episode of The...
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The New Arms Race: Supply Chains, Data, and National Security
The Outthinking Investor
The world’s superpowers are engaging in a different type of arms race beyond the battlefield. With technology advancing at a speedy pace, a global competition for all the ingredients necessary to support artificial intelligence—from data centers and semiconductors to the AI models themselves—is heating up. Not only do these ingredients form the building blocks of today’s economy, but building a secure and reliable flow of data is also considered a key national security objective. The UK designated data centers as critical national infrastructure in 2024, underlining how governments are...
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Against the Grain: Challenging Conventional Wisdom for Better Outcomes
The Outthinking Investor
Edward Lorenz, a meteorologist and mathematician, formulated a theory called the butterfly effect—based on a hypothetical scenario in which a butterfly, simply by flapping its wings, affects a tornado weeks later. The butterfly effect illustrates how small actions in complex systems can lead to big changes, underscoring the challenges in making forecasts. This is particularly relevant for investors. A complex global economy often takes unexpected turns, and macro disruptions and uncertainty present challenges for those navigating financial markets. But with this knowledge, investors could...
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Balancing Act: Economic Policy and National Security in a Fragmenting World
The Outthinking Investor
Italy surprised much of the world when it became the first—and only—member of the G7 to join China’s Belt and Road program in 2019. Just four years later, Italy withdrew from the initiative. The about-face served as a microcosm of the geopolitical landscape’s evolution. Policymakers have long viewed the economy through a geopolitical lens. But the overlap between the economy and national security has grown, increasingly becoming the focus of today’s geopolitical fractures amid global competition over trade, technology and defense. This episode of The Outthinking Investor explores the...
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Future-Proofing Portfolios: Taxes, Tariffs, & Government Spending
The Outthinking Investor
The use of economic statecraft is on the rise. With rivalries among major economies intensifying, countries are increasingly employing tariffs, sanctions and subsidies, contributing to a global realignment in trade flows. Meanwhile, elections in the US and Europe portend new debates over taxes, government spending, and the right fiscal formula to support growth and productivity. In the US, the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act’s tax reductions for individuals are due to expire in 2025, setting the stage for another round of changes to the tax code. Europe faces difficult budget choices amid calls...
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Global Elections in Focus: The Impact on Investors and the World Economy
The Outthinking Investor
The “year of democracy” holds the potential to bring profound change to global politics, economic policy, and the investment environment. By the end of 2024, more than five dozen countries, accounting for nearly half of the world’s population, will elect new leaders. Elections in Europe, including the UK, France, Germany and European Union, have already yielded both expected and surprising results. The US presidential election in November, as well as key congressional races, also could create significant policy changes—both expected and unexpected—during the next administration, no...
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Investing In Cities: Private Capital’s Growing Role In Urban Development
The Outthinking Investor
Cities have faced a host of challenges over the course of history, such as affordable housing, transportation, public safety and economic opportunities. In today’s rapidly changing global economy, these challenges are becoming increasingly complex, with cities needing to adapt to technological advancements, climate risks, and fluctuating fiscal policies. The most successful cities are dynamic and adapt to changing circumstances. Consider Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, as a prime example. Once known for its manufacturing might, Pittsburgh had to reinvent itself after the collapse of the steel...
info_outlineThe “year of democracy” holds the potential to bring profound change to global politics, economic policy, and the investment environment. By the end of 2024, more than five dozen countries, accounting for nearly half of the world’s population, will elect new leaders. Elections in Europe, including the UK, France, Germany and European Union, have already yielded both expected and surprising results. The US presidential election in November, as well as key congressional races, also could create significant policy changes—both expected and unexpected—during the next administration, no matter who wins the White House. For investors, the challenge lies in identifying the impact of elections on financial markets. How are 2024’s elections going to change the investment outlook?
This episode of The Outthinking Investor takes a closer look at elections around the world, the issues most important to voters, the challenges that political leaders face, and election season’s potential short- and long-term implications for investors. Our guests are Jeanne Sheehan Zaino, professor of political science and international studies at Iona University and author of “American Democracy in Crisis”; Morris Fiorina, Wendt Family Professor at Stanford University and senior fellow at the Hoover Institution; and Taggart Davis, Vice President of Government Affairs at PGIM.