Capitalmind Podcast
Capitalmind looks at stocks, bonds, funds and the macro to bring you their view on the Indian financial markets. We discuss all things related to investing at our focussed podcast that keeps it simple. For more, go to capitalmind.in and to invest with us, visit capitalmindwealth.com
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Will the U.S. Market Crash in 2026?
11/11/2025
Will the U.S. Market Crash in 2026?
For 17 years, Deepak Shenoy has made annual Diwali predictions about markets, crashes, interest rates, and more. But how many were actually right? Shray sits down with Deepak Shenoy from Capitalmind to examine his prediction history from 2007 to 2024. He correctly called the 2008 crash and Trump's 2024 victory. But real estate and gold? Wrong almost every year. We break down why most predictions fail and what makes the rare successful ones different. Deepak explains the three elements of valid predictions (direction, magnitude, timeframe), why cash on sidelines signals crashes, how AI bubbles mirror 2000, and why interest rates are easy to predict but impossible to profit from. This episode breaks down crashes, bubbles, and market timing, offering honest takes that you can actually use. Don't forget to like, share, and subscribe for more real insights on building wealth in Indian markets! Follow Capitalmind on Social Media: 📝 Linkedin: Instagram: Twitter: Chapters: 00:00 Introduction & 2024 Predictions Recap 01:00 Will There Be a Market Crash in 2025? 03:40 How AI Could Trigger the Next Crash 06:15 Why This Time Is Different from 2008 09:40 US Recession + Inflation = Stagflation? 12:10 Why Indian Markets May Keep Rising 15:00 The Real Estate Prediction Trap 20:20 Gold, Inflation & Interest Rate Outlook 28:20 Japan’s 30-Year Debt Problem Explained 33:40 Can the Rupee Go Global? 40:20 Why Predictions Usually Fail 46:00 Don’t Predict, Respond Instead 50:10 Deepak’s 2025 Predictions Recap 58:00 Closing Thoughts
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Gold, Silver, Equities: Which One Deserves a Place in Your Portfolio?
10/24/2025
Gold, Silver, Equities: Which One Deserves a Place in Your Portfolio?
When Indian Equity Markets Go Sideways: Are Alternative Assets Worth It? Indian equities have been flat for over a year. So where should you actually put your money? Shray sits down with Deepak Shenoy from Capital Mind to break it all down. Silver just hit $50 for the first time in 45 years. Deepak explains the Hunt Brothers saga, the Thailand import drama, and why silver might only deserve 2% of your portfolio. Gold – it's outperformed. But should you buy now? Only 30% of the time has gold beaten Nifty over 10 years. We also discuss foreign stocks, why debt funds aren't just parking lots, and whether India at 21-22x earnings is still expensive. If you're confused about where to deploy capital right now, this episode is for you. Don't forget to like, share, and subscribe for more insights on building real wealth in Indian markets! #investing #stockmarket #alternativeassets #gold #bitcoin #portfoliomanagement Follow Capitalmind on Social Media: Linkedin: Instagram: Twitter: Chapters: 0:00 - Intro 2:11 - Silver: What's Happening Right Now? 7:19 - Hunt Brothers: The Biggest Silver Bet Ever 11:58 - Should You Own Silver? 15:49 - Why Diamonds Are a Terrible Investment 17:38 - Gold: Why Deepak Was Wrong 21:14 - Gold as an Inflation Hedge 23:03 - When Gold Could Crash 40% 27:05 - Why We Treat Gold Differently Than Stocks 30:00 - Land Deals: How to Make 400% Returns 32:20 - Why Luxury Watches Beat Stocks 34:45 - Bitcoin: The Leverage Problem 41:32 - Bitcoin's Altcoin Curse 44:08 - Quantum Computing Could Kill Bitcoin 47:32 - How Much Bitcoin Should You Own? 50:22 - When Big Winners Become Too Big 52:01 - Foreign Stocks: The Smart Diversification 56:46 - Debt Funds: Beyond Just Parking Money 1:01:47 - Debt Market: Hidden Inefficiencies 1:04:06 - Why Debt Funds Deserve Your Money 1:06:07 - Why Bank FDs Are Ripping You Off 1:08:27 - Is India Still Too Expensive to Invest? 1:11:06 - Why 20x PE Actually Makes Sense 1:13:54 - Final Thoughts
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Gold, Silver, Equities: Which One Deserves a Place in Your Portfolio?
10/24/2025
Gold, Silver, Equities: Which One Deserves a Place in Your Portfolio?
When Indian Equity Markets Go Sideways: Are Alternative Assets Worth It? Indian equities have been flat for over a year. So where should you actually put your money? Shray sits down with Deepak Shenoy from Capital Mind to break it all down. Silver just hit $50 for the first time in 45 years. Deepak explains the Hunt Brothers saga, the Thailand import drama, and why silver might only deserve 2% of your portfolio. Gold – it's outperformed. But should you buy now? Only 30% of the time has gold beaten Nifty over 10 years. We also discuss foreign stocks, why debt funds aren't just parking lots, and whether India at 21-22x earnings is still expensive. If you're confused about where to deploy capital right now, this episode is for you. Don't forget to like, share, and subscribe for more insights on building real wealth in Indian markets! #investing #stockmarket #alternativeassets #gold #bitcoin #portfoliomanagement Follow Capitalmind on Social Media: Linkedin: Instagram: Twitter: Chapters: 0:00 - Intro 2:11 - Silver: What's Happening Right Now? 7:19 - Hunt Brothers: The Biggest Silver Bet Ever 11:58 - Should You Own Silver? 15:49 - Why Diamonds Are a Terrible Investment 17:38 - Gold: Why Deepak Was Wrong 21:14 - Gold as an Inflation Hedge 23:03 - When Gold Could Crash 40% 27:05 - Why We Treat Gold Differently Than Stocks 30:00 - Land Deals: How to Make 400% Returns 32:20 - Why Luxury Watches Beat Stocks 34:45 - Bitcoin: The Leverage Problem 41:32 - Bitcoin's Altcoin Curse 44:08 - Quantum Computing Could Kill Bitcoin 47:32 - How Much Bitcoin Should You Own? 50:22 - When Big Winners Become Too Big 52:01 - Foreign Stocks: The Smart Diversification 56:46 - Debt Funds: Beyond Just Parking Money 1:01:47 - Debt Market: Hidden Inefficiencies 1:04:06 - Why Debt Funds Deserve Your Money 1:06:07 - Why Bank FDs Are Ripping You Off 1:08:27 - Is India Still Too Expensive to Invest? 1:11:06 - Why 20x PE Actually Makes Sense 1:13:54 - Final Thoughts
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From H1B to Dream11 - When risks hit you hard
10/16/2025
From H1B to Dream11 - When risks hit you hard
What do DreamFolks, Dream11, JSW Steel, and Donald Trump’s H-1B visa policy all have in common? Each shows how unexpected risks can reshape markets and investments overnight. Deepak Shenoy and Shray Chandra break down 5 types of risk you never saw coming from business model collapse and legal shocks to regulation, policy changes, and passive investing illusions. Chapters: 00:00 - Intro 01:53 - DreamFolks 16:19 - JSW Steel and Bhushan Steel & Power 30:41 - Dream11 & Crypto currency 41:56 - H1B Visa situation 52:10 - When money moves markets
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ESOPs Demystified: Taxes, Dilution & the Path to Wealth in India!
09/23/2025
ESOPs Demystified: Taxes, Dilution & the Path to Wealth in India!
ESOPs (Employee Stock Options) are one of the least understood parts of compensation in India. Are they wealth creators or just glorified lottery tickets? We break down everything you need to know, the trade-off between salary and ESOPs, the risks of taxation and dilution, and how exits, IPOs, and secondary markets really work. From early employee bets to Flipkart’s game-changing Walmart deal, we explore stories that show both the pitfalls and life-changing rewards. If you’ve ever been offered ESOPs or are considering them. This podcast will help you make informed decisions about your financial future. Chapters: 00:00 - Intro 02:57 - Salary vs ESOP: the real trade-off 15:02 - ESOPs ≠Shares? 28:35 - Should companies help you exit? 37:41 - Black-Scholes for expense 40:39 - Why not just give shares? 45:59 - Promoters/Directors rules in India 50:11 - What every employee must check in their ESOP package! 57:20 - After the payout: diversify & spend
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Wealth as a Tool, Joy as the Goal
08/16/2025
Wealth as a Tool, Joy as the Goal
What if money wasn’t the goal… but the tool? Deepak Shenoy and Shray Chandra dive deep into how money can enable experiences, freedom, and meaning, instead of becoming an end in itself. 00:00 Intro 02:33 GDP, Good Life, and Getting Real About Returns 15:14 The Real Cost of Wealth (and the Price of a Good Life) 31:20 Planning for Joy, Not Just Returns 43:34 Compartmentalize to Live Fully 01:04:04 I have enough money, what do I do now? 01:13:23 Is winning in life all about money?
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The Saga of the Jane Street Trading Scandal
07/28/2025
The Saga of the Jane Street Trading Scandal
In this episode, Deepak and Shray unpack the SEBI allegations against global trading giant Jane Street and explore whether this is a case of shrewd arbitrage or market manipulation in India's underregulated options landscape. In doing so, they reveal deeper structural issues. An outsized derivatives market, regulatory blind spots, tax inequities, and unchecked index power that favour global giants over domestic traders all act as leading factors to the outsized profits made by the firm. The episode ends with a call for reform: position limits, STT rationalisation, index oversight, and a level playing field to restore market integrity.
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Make your own pension
06/30/2025
Make your own pension
Indian retirement planning for long has been centered on your children being successful and them supporting you in your golden years. But, times are changing, with the rise of nuclear single child households, new pension options and easier access to capital markets, retirement planning also has to change. In this conversation, Deepak and Shray discuss the various options you have to set up a retirement corpus. Be it investing in a pension scheme or managing your own investments, they provide the pros and cons as well as the steps you need to take to do so. They also suggest policies that if implemented, could make retirement planning simpler. The earlier the better is the mantra for retirement planning and this conversation will help you get started. 00:00 - Intro 01:18 - Choosing Your Retirement: NPS or UPS? 15:36 - The real math behind the Unified Pension Scheme 22:33 - Can private sector employees build their own pension? 28:54 - Forced Savings: A behavioral take on long-term wealth 35:43 - Guarantees, gradually: structuring safer payouts as you age 39:33 - Tax efficiency and corpus optimization 44:17 - Managing Volatility: Behavior & long-term thinking 51:27 - The structural risk behind public pension guarantees 57:55 - Belief in the System: Will pensions and markets survive? 01:03:13 - Where do I even start? 01:14:52 - Why India needs its own 401(k) 01:19:36 - The roadblocks to retirement reform 01:23:44 - Will Equity Returns Moderate?
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Is War Good for the Economy?
06/03/2025
Is War Good for the Economy?
In this wide-ranging chat, Shray plays devil’s advocate while Deepak unpacks why conflict often jump-starts economies, how India’s defence binge could spill over into everything from lithium mining to 10-minute groceries, and why a 70-hour work-week isn’t the villain Twitter thinks it is. Returns—not patriotism—ultimately determine whether CapEx endures, a reality visible in the economics of fracking, rare-earth extraction, and the three types of “crazy” investors who fund long-shot bets: governments, bondholders, and VCs. India’s manufacturing ambitions have long been stifled by outdated labour laws and missed opportunities, but we may now be staring at a rare, once-in-a-generation window of opportunity. While defence and industrial stocks might seem richly valued, there's still plenty of runway—especially if order books start to triple. That said, the journey is fraught with risks: a sluggish judicial system, bureaucratic inertia, and our national knack for fumbling promising leads. For investors, the challenge is knowing when to play defence and when to swing for the fences in a market that increasingly rewards conviction. -- 00:00 - Intro 01:09 - Wars & the Economy 12:56 - Return on Investment - Driver of returns 25:28 - Does CapEx without justification work? 35:30 - Why don't we manufacture in India anyway? 47:33 - Labor laws - Why do they exist? 55:20 - Is the rally already priced in? 01:11:18 - What’s the downside risk? 01:15:49 - Where do you invest now? 01:19:03 - Trump, 70 Hours & Self-Reliance! -- More about us: https://cm.social/pms Connect with us : https://cm.social/pms-connect Deepak's Twitter: @deepakshenoy Shray’s Twitter: @shraychandra Capitalmind Twitter: @capitalmind_in
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Are Mutual Funds only Sahi for the Middle Class?
05/16/2025
Are Mutual Funds only Sahi for the Middle Class?
Mutual Funds are often seen as the McDonalds of the investment world. They are ubiquitous and convenient, and yet, they are seen to lack the prestige of a fine dining experience aka Private Equity et al. In this episode, we take on the big question: Are mutual funds only for the salaried middle class, or is there a bigger story here? Deepak and Shray dive deep into the history and perception of mutual funds, from their once-exclusive status to becoming the go-to vehicle for SIPs and forced savings. But why don’t you hear family offices or the ultra-wealthy proudly boasting about their mutual fund holdings? We explore this through the lens of economic class distinctions (India A, B, and C) and unpack how perceptions of exclusivity and quality affect investment choices. Whether you're planning for retirement, your child’s education, or just wondering if your portfolio is too “plain vanilla,” this is a conversation that will make you rethink how you view mutual funds. -- 0:00 – Intro 3:29 – Choosing Exclusivity Over Simplicity 7:34 – Volatility Laundering 20:32 – Liquidity in University Endowment Funds 31:49 – Alternative Investments 38:58 – Mutual Funds vs Other Investments 44:12 – Why not hire a personal fund manager? 48:04 – Advantages and Disadvantages of Mutual Funds 1:12:26 – Use cases for Mutual Funds 1:22:41 – Who are Mutual Funds not for? -- More about us: https://cm.social/pms Connect with us : https://cm.social/pms-connect Deepak's Twitter: @deepakshenoy Shray’s Twitter: @shraychandra Capitalmind Twitter: @capitalmind_in
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No Passport Needed: Your Guide to Global Investing
04/19/2025
No Passport Needed: Your Guide to Global Investing
In this episode, Deepak and Shray unpack the ins and outs of international investing—why it matters, when it makes sense, and who it’s really for. From rupee depreciation to political and geographical risks, they explore the key reasons to diversify your portfolio beyond India’s borders. They also discuss a crucial question: At what level of capital does it become meaningful to place your money outside? The conversation weaves in perspectives from investing greats—Peter Lynch, who believed in the power of consumer insight, and Devina Mehra, whose latest book "Money Myths and Mantras" emphasizes global allocation as a must-have strategy. With fresh data on market returns (both in INR and local currency terms), the duo breaks down how different regions have performed—why Europe and China have struggled, and how the US tech boom, largely driven by the Nasdaq, has outshone the rest. But can the US continue to dominate, especially in light of Fed Chairman Powell’s recent remarks on tariffs? They also touch upon an important side of global investing: taxation. From the complexities of capital gains to the lesser-known estate tax, and how investment vehicles like UCITS can help navigate these issues. Tune in for a comprehensive, no-fluff guide to international investing—what works, what to watch out for, and how to do it right. 0:00 - 2:10 Introduction 2:11 - 8:27 Why should you invest abroad? 8:28 - 10:53 Economic growth ≠Shareholder returns 10:54 - 19:35 How to select international investments? 19:36 - 27:31 Regular international investments 27:32 - 32:17 Commodity Diversification 32:18 - 40:50 Managed International Investment Solutions 40:51 - 43:37 Good time to global? 43:38 - 47:17 Domestic vs. International Brokers 47:18 - 50:34 Tax on Foreign Equity 50:35 - 54:17 Tax Collected at Source 54:18 - 56:38 U.S. Estate Taxes 56:39 - 59:50 UCITS -- More about us: Connect with us : Deepak's Twitter: @deepakshenoy Shray’s Twitter: @shraychandra Capitalmind Twitter: @capitalmind_in
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Changing the World Order: Tariff Edition
04/12/2025
Changing the World Order: Tariff Edition
At this point, you’ve probably read enough about tariffs to last a lifetime. But what if we told you the real story isn’t just about import duties or Donald Trump’s next announcement; it’s about a slow unraveling of the world order we’ve all taken for granted In this episode, Deepak and Shray dig into how the US once helped shape a global economic contract — one where it bought the goods, paid in dollars, protected the rest of the world, and in return, the world kept buying US debt. It worked until it didn’t. Countries like China started playing a smarter game. They stitched shoes, then built the factories, then made their own brands, and finally started exporting those to the US. Somewhere along the way, the US realized it wasn’t in control anymore. Tariffs are now the blunt tool being used to push back. We break down what’s really happening, what’s likely to happen next, and how portfolios, both in India and abroad, need to adjust. If the world is becoming more inward-looking, where should your money go? The world is changing. Listen in to make sure your portfolio is not caught off guard. 0:00 - 1:05 Introduction 1:06 - 3:17 What went wrong with the existing world order? 3:18 - 7:41 "The Unwritten Contract" 7:42 - 10:15 What a dollar can get you 10:16 - 15:22 Origins of Chinese Manufacturing 15:23 - 19:54 How the apprentice became the master 19:55 - 25:01 What's ailing Trump despite American glory? 25:02 - 26:00 The Multiplier Effect of Manufacturing 26:01 - 28:37 Why they resorted to Tariffs 28:38 - 30:41 Repercussions of Tariffs 30:41 - 33:33 De minimis Shipping 33:34 - 40:18 Shift toward an Isolated World (non-Tariff Barriers) 40:19 - 45:51 Global trade without the US 45:52 - 51:42 Investing themes during trade wars -- More about us: https://cm.social/pms Connect with us : https://cm.social/pms-connect Deepak's Twitter: @deepakshenoy Shray’s Twitter: @shraychandra Capitalmind Twitter: @capitalmind_in
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Exchange Traded Funda: How ETFs Work
04/10/2025
Exchange Traded Funda: How ETFs Work
ETFs have taken over the world, or at least that’s what you’d believe if you spent any time reading financial media in the US. Passive investing! Low costs! No fund manager egos! And of course, that looming prediction: “ETFs will destroy price discovery!” But in India? Crickets. While ETFs have become mainstream in the US, with trillions of dollars flowing into passive investing strategies, India's ETF story is still unfolding. Why haven’t ETFs exploded in India despite our obsession with stocks? And more importantly, should you be investing in ETFs or mutual funds? In this episode, Deepak and Shray get into the weeds on all things Exchange Traded Funds — what they are, how they work, where they don’t work, and why, despite sounding like the next great revolution in investing, they haven’t quite clicked here yet. 00:00:00 - Introduction 00:02:01 - How big are ETFs? 00:07:30 - Why are ETFs so successful in the US 00:09:42 - How do ETFs work? 00:13:52 - Isn’t it better to move into ETFs then? 00:16:01 - Who are you buying the ETF from? 00:20:08 - Are there any advantages in ETFs over MFs in India? 00:25:10 - What role do Market Makers play in ETFs? 00:30:12 - When and why do ETF prices trade above their NAV? 00:39:14 - Role of liquidity in ETF prices 00:42:06 - Why don’t people do SIPs into ETFs and Stocks? 00:48:44 - How are ETFs useful for investors? 00:53:17 - What about Commodity ETFs? 00:55:47 - What about Liquid ETFs? 00:59:52 - How do regulations like stock-lending and free-float impact ETF returns? 01:04:53 - What are Deepak’s thoughts about Active ETFs? 01:07:06 - Will ETFs gain market share from Mutual Funds?
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The Unexpected Impact of investing in Mutual Funds and Pooled Vehicles
03/06/2025
The Unexpected Impact of investing in Mutual Funds and Pooled Vehicles
Deepak and Shray discuss the unexpected quirks and consequences of investing in mutual funds and pooled vehicles in general. The discussion covers how your returns and experiences can be impacted by other investors' actions, including issues with inflows, outflows, cutoff timings, and NAV calculations. Specific cases like DHFL, Yes Bank, and Zee promoter bonds are examined to highlight how complexities in pooled vehicles can affect investment decisions. Additionally, the episode provides insights on how to navigate these challenges and the importance of understanding the nature of pooled investments. 00:00 Introduction 00:43 Understanding Mutual Funds and Pooled Vehicles 02:43 Complexities of Pooled Vehicles 07:43 Impact of Inflows on Fund Composition 13:18 Challenges with Outflows and Debt Funds 20:00 Timing Issues and NAV Calculations 29:04 ETFs vs Mutual Funds: Arbitrage and Market Behavior 33:01 Case Studies: Yes Bank, DHFL, and Zee Promoter Bonds 37:50 Side Pocketing and Arbitrage 49:12 Investor Strategies and Market Timing Challenges 55:43 Conclusion and Final Thoughts
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Profit Shares & Performance Fees: Are They Really Worth It?
02/06/2025
Profit Shares & Performance Fees: Are They Really Worth It?
In today’s episode, we break down profit shares and performance fees, one of the most debated topics in the asset management industry. Are they a fair way to align incentives, or just another way for fund managers to charge more? We get into the nitty-gritty of who can charge performance fees in India and how it works, the meaning of terms like management fee, hurdle rate, catch-up, and high watermark, and whether performance fees actually create skin in the game for fund managers. We also discuss why losses and performance fees don’t go well together, whether investors should care about profit shares or just post-fee returns, and whether paying a performance fee is ever worth it. We also explore some of the murky areas of the industry, including hidden fees, commission structures, and the psychology behind why investors accept certain charges without question. At Capitalmind PMS, we don’t charge a performance fee, and we explain why we chose this model. If you’ve ever wondered how fee structures impact your long-term returns, this episode is a must-listen. 00:00 Introduction and Disclaimer 00:42 Overview of Performance Fees 02:35 Understanding Management Fees 05:32 Performance Fees and Hurdle Rates 07:34 Catch Up and High Watermark Concepts 11:04 Complexities in Fee Structures 14:31 Skin in the Game and Incentives 29:34 Management Fee Only Model 31:17 Incentives and Performance in Fund Management 32:43 Principles of Charging Profit Share 33:14 Small Funds and Profit Share Justification 34:41 Mutual Funds and Profit Share Dilemma 35:49 Historical Examples and Active Management 37:37 Challenges in Asset Management 45:20 Regulatory Perspectives on Fees 51:09 Evaluating Investment Options 56:52 Final Thoughts on Profit Shares
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Budget 2025: More Money in Your Hands
02/03/2025
Budget 2025: More Money in Your Hands
Deepak and Shray analyze the implications of this budget on consumption, manufacturing, investments, and its impact on your wallet. ---- More about us: Connect with us : Deepak's Twitter: @deepakshenoy Shray’s Twitter: @shraychandra Capitalmind Twitter: @capitalmind_in
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The fight between the Dollar and the Rupee
12/23/2024
The fight between the Dollar and the Rupee
In this episode, Deepak and Shray dive deep into the dynamics of the Dollar-Rupee equation. With the rupee at 85 to the dollar, what does this mean for us as investors and consumers? Are we losing 3-4% in dollar terms every year without realizing it? And if so, does investing in global assets provide a better hedge? Join us as we break down historical trends in the exchange rate, the RBI's role as the on the same and why inflation differentials drive the long-term trajectory of currencies (or why they may not in this case). Along the way, we explore everything from dosa economics to the peculiarities of India's remittance-driven current account. Packed with insights and a dash of irreverence, this episode is a must-listen for anyone trying to make sense of exchange rates and their impact on real wealth. Timestamps 00:00 Introduction 00:31 Historical Context to the Rupee Dollar Equation 03:12 The Role of RBI in Currency Valuation 03:55 Dosa Economics 05:06 Inflation and Exchange Rates 09:29 Impact of RBI's Market Participation and Forex Reserves 17:49 Current Account and Financial Account Dynamics 23:14 Foreign Investments and Market Freedom 30:02 Tariffs, Exports, and Currency Manipulation 36:13 The Impact of Dollar Inflows on the Indian Economy 37:00 RBI's Role in Managing Rupee and Inflation 39:19 Government Bonds and Interest Payments 40:43 RBI's Forex Market Participation 43:04 Rupee Appreciation and FEMA 58:16 Investment Strategies and Global Opportunities 01:03:29 Speculation and the Non-Deliverable Forward Market 01:11:46 Concluding Thoughts and Future Outlook
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Are Foreign Investors (FIIs) Less Important Now?
12/03/2024
Are Foreign Investors (FIIs) Less Important Now?
Ever wondered if the Indian stock market still needs Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) now that domestic investors are stepping up? Shray and Deepak chew over this hot topic in our latest episode. They examine questions like whether foreign investors are responsible for recent market declines, who the primary owners of Indian companies are, and why foreign ownership is decreasing. They discuss the impact of regulatory changes, such as increased KYC requirements and the end of tax benefits for investments through Mauritius, Singapore, and Cyprus. The episode also delves into the differences between Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) and Foreign Direct Investors (FDIs), as well as the significance of retail and domestic investors in the market. The hosts conclude by discussing the future of foreign ownership and whether retail investors should continue their systematic investment plans (SIPs). With retail investment soaring, the influence of foreign money seems to be waning—or is it? They also discuss the consequences of significant foreign withdrawals during global crises and compare the patterns of FII with Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), highlighting the intricate details of market shifts. They also take a look at global capital flows through the case studies of Hyundai’s, Holcim and British American Tobacco among others. Tune in to understand why studying both FII and FDI activity is crucial for grasping the bigger picture of market behavior. More about us: Schedule a call with us: Deepak’s Twitter: @deepakshenoy Shray’s Twitter: @shraychandra Capitalmind Twitter: @capitalmind_in Deepak's first book:
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The F&O Game is fair even if 93% of people lose money
11/18/2024
The F&O Game is fair even if 93% of people lose money
In this episode of the Capitalmind podcast, Deepak and Shray dive into SEBI's recent report analyzing the profits and losses of F&O traders. The report reveals a staggering statistic, showing that over 90% of individual traders have lost money in F&O trading in the past few years. They explore the reasons behind these losses, the demographic impacts, and whether F&O trading is more akin to gambling than investment. They also discuss SEBI's new rules aimed at curbing losses and what these changes mean for both novice and seasoned traders. Tune in to understand the full implications of SEBI's analysis and what it means for the future of F&O trading in India. 00:00 Introduction 00:42 SEBI's Report on F&O Traders 01:41 Deep Dive into SEBI's Findings 02:32 Analyzing the Losses 06:00 Demographics of Losing Traders 07:57 Potential Misinterpretations of Data 18:06 The Appeal of F&O Trading 29:30 Speculation vs. Investment 30:39 The Role of Speculators in the Market 40:44 Comparing Trading to Performance Sports 43:11 The Discipline of Trading 43:42 Challenges of Undercapitalization 44:28 Intrinsic Value of Activities 45:10 Learning from Trading 49:08 Capital Requirements and Market Dynamics 52:18 Sophistication and Risk Management 57:20 Regulatory Impact and Market Participation 01:15:25 The Role of Speculation and Regulation 01:20:38 SEBI's New Rules and Their Impact 01:25:35 Conclusion and Final Thoughts
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A Structured Approach to Cash Calls: Deepak Shenoy's Framework
10/25/2024
A Structured Approach to Cash Calls: Deepak Shenoy's Framework
In this episode, recorded in early October 2024, we’re diving into a topic that’s on everyone’s mind: Is holding cash a smart move in these unpredictable markets? We’re in what some are calling one of the most “unloved” bull markets—stocks keep rising, but investors (ourselves included) are uneasy, waiting for the other shoe to drop. To help us unpack whether cash can actually give your portfolio an edge during uncertain times, we brought in none other than Deepak Shenoy. Together, we explore whether holding cash can protect you from potential downturns or even help you outperform the benchmarks. We also dig into the challenges fund managers face with cash calls, why getting back into the market can be harder than it seems, and how strategies like STPs (Systematic Transfer Plans) play out in real life. Deepak shares some great insights, comparing today’s market to historical events like the 2020 Crash, Russia-Ukraine war, Brexit, and the 2008 financial crisis. Plus, we look at what Warren Buffett has done with cash during past downturns—and why even he hasn’t always gotten it right. This episode is packed with practical takeaways including: 1) When holding cash makes sense—and when it doesn’t 2) Why fund managers sometimes get cash calls wrong 3) The emotional side of staying invested vs. going to cash 4) How IPOs and market liquidity can impact your cash strategy If you’ve ever felt that itch to “do something” with your portfolio when markets are shaky, this conversation is for you. We break down the mental tug-of-war between holding cash and riding out the market, with Deepak sharing actionable advice that will help you stay prepared, no matter what happens next.
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Mutual Funds, PMS, or AIF: Choosing the Right Investment Vehicle for Your Needs
09/21/2024
Mutual Funds, PMS, or AIF: Choosing the Right Investment Vehicle for Your Needs
In this episode, Deepak and Shray dive into the intricacies of mutual funds, Portfolio Management Services (PMS), and Alternative Investment Funds (AIF). We analyze the tax benefits of mutual funds, highlight the liquidity advantages, and compare them with PMS and AIF in terms of fees, transparency, and investment flexibility. We also discusses why different products cater to different investors based on their income levels, asset sizes, and risk appetites. The conversation covers the psychological and practical reasons investors might choose one investment vehicle over another, the role of fund managers, and the impact of regulations on investment returns. 00:00 Introduction and Overview 00:13 Comparing Mutual Funds, PMS, and AIFs 00:55 Tax Efficiency of Mutual Funds 01:28 Challenges with Mutual Funds 01:41 The All Weather Equity Portfolio 02:23 Why Mutual Funds Aren't the Default Choice 02:46 Understanding Different Investment Products 04:13 Tax Implications for Different Investors 18:33 The Complexity of Mutual Fund Selection 24:06 Liquidity and Size Issues in Mutual Funds 27:18 PMS vs Mutual Funds: Key Differences 27:29 Large Investors' Preferences 28:46 Challenges for US Investors 31:09 Systematic Transfer Plans in PMS 33:22 The Importance of Fund Managers 35:31 Process vs Personality in Investing 46:42 Choosing Between PMS and AIF 52:21 Conclusion: Tailoring Investments to Individual Needs
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Investing in Unlisted Companies: What's the deal?
09/11/2024
Investing in Unlisted Companies: What's the deal?
In this episode of the Capitalmind Podcast, we take a deep dive into the world of unlisted and private securities. We’ll cover key topics such as: What exactly are unlisted and private securities? How do you value them, and what complexities should you watch for, like liquidation preferences and ratchets? Who can you sell these securities to, and what about corporate governance risks? Are these investments or just consumption in disguise? We also explore opportunities in the SME segment and how much of your net worth you should allocate to private investments. Whether you're considering investing in a friend's business or a pre-IPO startup like Swiggy, this episode will help you navigate the complex world of private markets. Don’t miss out! Send your ideas for future episodes to podcast@capitalmind.in, and if you're ready to invest with us, visit capitalmind.in to learn more about our PMS service. 00:00 Welcome to the Capital Mind Podcast 00:37 Introduction to Unlisted and Private Securities 04:27 Private vs Public Limited Companies 07:32 Valuing Unlisted Companies 09:26 Complexities of Cap Tables 21:31 Exit Strategies for Unlisted Securities 41:19 The Impact of Swiggy and Zomato on Restaurants 42:57 Investment Opportunities in Unlisted Companies 44:01 Shenanigans in Private and Public Markets 44:49 Case Studies: Byju's and FarmEasy 49:22 The Role of Venture Capitalists 01:05:00 Strategic Investments and Their Impact 01:07:30 Challenges of Investing in Unlisted Companies 01:24:03 The Future of Private Investments 01:24:49 Conclusion and Final Thoughts
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Why so many new Mutual Fund NFOs?
08/23/2024
Why so many new Mutual Fund NFOs?
In this episode of the Capitalmind Podcast, Deepak and Shray dissect the surge in New Fund Offerings (NFOs) by mutual funds, dissecting why fund houses are launching new schemes and who truly benefits from them—whether it’s the AMC, the customer, or intermediaries like distributors. We also discuss the economics of fund distribution, the role of intermediaries, and how to identify the best options for your investments. The episode also ventures into the often not talked about side of financial advisory, the unrealistic expectations of managing wealth independently, and the vital role of professional advisors. Additionally, they explore the cyclic nature of NFOs, investor hype in bull markets, and the risks of market oversaturation, concluding with advice on navigating financial products during booming market conditions. Whether you’re a seasoned investor or just getting started, this episode is packed with insights that can help you make informed decisions. Timestamps 00:00 Introduction to the Capitalmind Podcast and disclaimer 00:43 Overview of New Fund Offerings (NFOs) 02:29 Historical Context and SEBI Regulations 03:24 Fund Categories and Flexibility 05:00 The Role of Fund Managers and Themes 08:50 Marketing and Distribution Economics 12:04 Impact on Customers and Fund Houses 29:47 Advertising and Expense Management 33:33 The Role of SEBI in Fund Innovation 34:29 The Impact of Fund Variety on Investors 35:30 The Importance of Innovation in the Mutual Fund Industry 36:59 Challenges of Fund Categorization 42:43 The Role of Financial Advisors and RIAs 49:55 Mutual Fund Distributors vs. Bank RMs 55:27 When to Go Direct with Your Investments 01:05:50 The Cycle of NFOs in Bull Markets 01:09:01 Conclusion and Final Thoughts
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What is front running, really?
06/28/2024
What is front running, really?
Picture this: You’re at your favourite bakery, and you overhear that a celebrity is about to place a massive order for your favourite pastries. You rush to buy them all up before the celeb can, hoping to sell them back at a premium. That, in essence, is front running in the financial world. We discuss how people pull off this trick and, more importantly, how they get caught. (Spoiler alert: it’s not as glamorous as a Hollywood heist) Axis Mutual Fund had their share of front running drama not too long ago. Traders making big bucks, splurging on luxury pads and flashy cars—sounds like a plot from "The Wolf of Wall Street”. We’ll break down the fallout and the lessons learned. Currently, Quant Mutual Fund is going through allegations about front running. How do you, as an investor, make sense of these allegations and decide on your next move? Should you hold onto your Quant Mutual Fund investments or start thinking about an exit strategy? We talk about all this and more in our latest episode of Capitalmind Podcast.
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The Hulla Over Inheritance Tax
05/23/2024
The Hulla Over Inheritance Tax
Recently, the mere hint of an inheritance tax proposal sparked a mini-political crisis? Thanks to a quick government rebuttal, it’s off the table—at least for now. But that’s not where the story ends. As always, Deepak and Shray go head-to-head, weighing the merits and pitfalls of this hot-button issue. We’re not just looking at the problem from 30,000 feet; we’re getting into the weeds, examining real-life scenarios and potential solutions that could impact you and your future. Government Finances: Can an inheritance tax significantly boost government coffers? Or is it just another drop in the ocean of fiscal needs? Societal Impact: Will taxing inheritances create a more industrious society, or will it just penalise those who’ve worked hard to create wealth for their children? Implementation: What if we set the bar high, say at 100 crores or even 1000 crores? Would this make the tax more palatable and targeted? Practical Hurdles: Imagine inheriting a house or a business. Sounds dreamy until you hit the wall of unrealised gains and logistical nightmares. We’re peeling back the layers on these challenges. Future Planning: If you’re expecting a windfall 5 or 10 years down the road, how should you plan your finances today? Spoiler alert: It’s not as straightforward as you might think. So, grab your headphones and tune in. Whether you’re a financial novice or a seasoned investor, this episode promises to challenge your thinking and maybe even make you laugh along the way. Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction and Disclaimer 01:25 Should we have an inheritance tax? 07:36 What if inheritance tax is imposed solely on the wealthy? 15:42 Creating a Trust to offset tax 25:04 Are there significant practical difficulties associated with inheritance tax? 35:08 Doesn't implementing an inheritance or wealth tax help reduce asset prices or control inflation? 42:58 How should one prepare for potential inheritance taxes in the future?
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Momentum Investing in India with Anoop Vijaykumar
05/03/2024
Momentum Investing in India with Anoop Vijaykumar
In this comprehensive discussion, Fund Manager and Head of Research Anoop Vijaykumar and Shray Chandra distil the key lessons from over five years of managing the Capitalmind Adaptive Momentum portfolio. Get a concise overview of the principles of momentum investing driving the portfolio’s success. Learn from our real-world lessons on why momentum investing works for long-term wealth creation 00:36 Introduction 01:54 Momentum strategy in the last 5 years 03:30 Difference between the fundamental and quantitive styles 08:00 Random correlations when backtesting a quantitive strategy 10:30 Capitalmind Adaptive Momentum strategy 15:05 Why does momentum investing work? 18:54 Lessons learned from 5 years of managing momentum strategy 26:00 Will momentum stop working 29:30 How can we get more out of the momentum strategy?
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All is forgiven in the financial markets
04/23/2024
All is forgiven in the financial markets
Have you ever wondered why finance seems to have a forgiving nature? From the sins of the past being easily forgotten to the belief in second chances, we'll explore the nuances of forgiveness in the financial realm. We'll dissect the tactics some "for education purposes only" players use to enrich themselves at the expense of their students. It's a sobering reminder to always question the motives behind the message. We uncover the darker side of startup culture, where founders blur the lines between innovation and exploitation. It’s a cautionary tale for aspiring entrepreneurs and investors alike. Deepak & Shray, in their quintessential style, discuss nuances of investing and finance in this latest episode of Capitalmind Podcast. Show Notes & References 00:00 Introduction and Disclaimer 01:35 Why is finance a uniquely forgiving industry? 19:37 Deepak’s views on AT 1 Instrument 28:23 How do customers react to their fund managers' pros and cons? 57:57 Critical look at how some financial educators profit heavily from courses that may not benefit students as promised. 01:05:40 A look into the darker side of startup culture where founders misappropriate funds and then start new enterprises. 01:12:00 Delving into the challenges faced by companies when customers misuse their power.
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Super-money: Why everyone wants to be everything in Finance
04/04/2024
Super-money: Why everyone wants to be everything in Finance
The idea that finance companies want to do everything from payments to lending to broking to investments is strange - why not just be good at one thing? It’s a simple explanation, it turns out. Find out more about the business of money in a language you can easily understand, through the words of Deepak Shenoy and Shray Chandra. Capitalmind manages Rs. 1700+ cr. as a SEBI-registered PMS, and has quantitative investing strategies that use extensively tested factor data to invest into stocks. Our flagship Adaptive Momentum strategy has outperformed the market indices over 5+ years. References: Introduction Why does every company do everything in financial services? Why aren’t banks more aggressive in growing and pricing things lower? Discussion on the success of Bajaj Finance and arbitrage between Banks and NBFCs Why aren't banks aggressive on lending ? What's the issue with lending? Deepak explains the Indian Bankruptcy code What can we do to fix this? More about us: Schedule a call with us: Deepak’s Twitter: @deepakshenoy Shray’s Twitter: @shraychandra Capitalmind Twitter: @capitalmind_in Deepak's first book:
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Why do financial markets have circuit limits?
03/05/2024
Why do financial markets have circuit limits?
Ever wondered why circuits are in place? It all started on Black Monday in 1987, where a 25% market correction prompted the introduction of market-wide circuit breakers in the US. These limits aimed to ensure market maker solvency and prevent panic-induced trading. Fast forward to 2001, and India also introduced circuits to handle intraday market volatility. From the Nifty's inception to the imposition of index-level circuit filters, the Indian market landscape has witnessed a steady evolution in its approach to market regulation. In this episode, we delve deeper into the concept of circuits, with real life stories and understand how they help the market. We also discuss, should circuits continue to exist in their current form? or is it time to explore alternatives that foster greater transparency and resilience? Show Notes & References 00:00 Introduction and Disclaimer 01:24 Background on limits or circuit breakers. 06:38 When did India implement the circuit breaker? 09:20 What are the current rules for circuits in India? 15:58 Why are circuits interesting in the first place? 19:07 What would happen if circuits weren’t there? 24:38 Some interesting stories on circuits in the stock market 36:34 What is a better way to manage circuits? 40:47 Will circuits continue to exit?
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RBI hits NBFCs hard with two new regulations
01/30/2024
RBI hits NBFCs hard with two new regulations
In today's episode, we delve deep into the recent actions taken by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) towards the end of 2023 and the ensuing ripple effects they've set off. The RBI, often the silent architect of our financial landscape, has made strategic manoeuvres that reshape the terrain for banks, non-banking financial companies (NBFCs), and borrowers. Discover how these regulatory shifts could impact financial decisions and the broader economic landscape. From the nuances of risk weights to the implications for personal loan growth, this episode promises to demystify the complex world of financial regulations in a digestible and engaging format. Here is a quick overview of what we talk about: We unpack the RBI's directives regarding risk weights and the restrictions placed on simultaneous lending and investing activities by financial institutions. Dive into how startups offering digital lending products, like CRED and Paytm, are affected and the challenges they face under the new regulations. Explore why your credit card limits might be scrutinised and how conflict of interest rules reshape lending dynamics. Understand why the RBI's focus on Alternative Investment Funds (AIFs) matters and how it impacts investors' portfolios. Debate whether these measures reflect a proportionate response from the RBI and what they suggest about the current state of our economy. Timestamps 00:00 Introduction and Disclaimer 01:34 Deepak demystifies the two new regulations by RBI on Banks and NBFC 05:37 What’s the impact of these new regulations? Why should we care? 16:05 Why is RBI more concerned about personal loans? 24:54 Why aren’t you positive about the RBI action here? What’s wrong with the slowing loan growth? 32:20 If Startups are ready to take the risk, why is RBI stopping them? 45:14 Even after this bull run, why isn’t there lending against securities? 52:11 RBI has a new rule prohibiting Banks and NBFCs from evergreening loans through AIFs. 01:03:51 Is this a warning, a sign that the economy is over-heating?
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