Gulf International Forum's Majlis

Our podcast is another medium in which we continue to serve our mission of building awareness and contributing to the accumulation of knowledge on the Gulf region. The podcast show features expert analysis on the Gulf region’s social, political, and economic issues. The countries of focus are Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Yemen. The show is available on several smartphone podcast apps; Spotify, Apple Podcasts, Podcast App, iTunes, ThePodcastSource, Libsyn and GIF's website https://gulfif.org/media/podcast/

Book Talk with Dr. Cinzia Bianco "The Gulf Monarchies After the Arab Spring" 07/22/2024

Book Talk with Dr. Dania Thafer "Creative Insecurity: Institutional Inertia and Youth Potential in the Gulf" 07/22/2024

Post-Raisi Iran: Succession, Domestic Politics, and Regional Implications 07/22/2024

Post-Raisi Iran: Succession, Domestic Politics, and Regional Implications Featured Speakers: Ambassador Patrick Theros, Holly Dagres, Dr. Abdolrasool Divsallar, and Dr. Hamidreza Azizi. Event Synopsis On May 19th, a tragic helicopter crash near the Azerbaijan border resulted in the deaths of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian, and several other officials. In response to this devastating event, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei announced that First Vice President Mohammad Mokhber would assume the role of interim president. According to Iran’s constitution, a new presidential election must be held within 50 days, with candidates subject to vetting by the Guardian Council—a stringent body known for disqualifying even prominent conservative and moderate figures. This suggests that significant shifts in Iranian policy are unlikely. This incident occurs amid increasing domestic unrest and international pressures. Iran is currently facing numerous political, social, and economic crises, alongside global scrutiny over its contentious nuclear program and its deepening military cooperation with Russia in the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. Since taking office, Raisi had enforced stricter laws, led a severe crackdown on anti-government protests, and adopted a hardline stance in nuclear negotiations with global powers. Furthermore, the long-standing covert conflict between Iran and Israel has recently escalated into open exchanges of drone and missile fire, underscoring the region’s volatility. Among moderates, conservatives, and hardliners, who are the most likely candidates to succeed Raisi, and what factors will influence their chances? With Raisi being a potential successor to Supreme Leader Khamenei, how does his death alter the dynamics of the supreme leader’s succession? Should we anticipate any changes in Iran’s foreign relations, particularly with the West and in its support for Russia in the Ukraine conflict? Given that the presidential election will occur only weeks after the parliamentary elections, what impact might this have on Iran’s societal dynamics, especially among the youth and women who protested Raisi’s policies two years ago? What are the potential implications for Iran’s internal stability in light of the upcoming presidential election? /episode/index/show/gulfmajlis/id/32247362

The Future of Kuwait: Consequences of Long-Term Parliamentary Absence 07/22/2024

How Far Could it Escalate? Israel and Iran's Shadow War 07/22/2024

How Far Could it Escalate? Israel and Iran's Shadow War Featured Speakers: Ambassador Patrick Theros, Dr. Kenneth Katzman, Brigadier General Mark Kimmitt, Dr. Ali Vaez and Natasha Hall. Synopsis On April 1st, an Israeli airstrike in Syria notably escalated tensions by targeting an annex of the Iranian Embassy in Damascus. This strike resulted in the deaths of seven leaders from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), among the casualties were Mohammad Reza Zahedi, the Quds Force commander for Lebanon and Syria, and his deputy, Mohammad Hadi Haji Rahimi. Their deaths represent the highest-level IRGC losses since the killing of Qassem Soleimani in January 2020. This incident intensifies the longstanding tensions between Iran and Israel, adding to a history of targeted assassinations that include high-ranking officials from Iran, Hezbollah, and Hamas by Israel, exacerbating hostilities while stopping short of sparking a full-scale conflict. In retaliation, Iran and Hezbollah have vowed to retaliate against Israel and the United States, with Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, promising retribution. On April 14, Iran responded by launching hundreds of drones and missiles aimed at Israel. With the help of the United States, the United Kingdom, and France, Israeli defense forces successfully intercepted all incoming projectiles, effectively thwarting the Iranian attack. Israel’s war cabinet is now deliberating potential retaliatory measures in response to what they perceive as an unprecedented aerial offensive. However, the consequences of any such retaliation are unclear and could potentially escalate tensions, risking a broader regional conflict. Is conflict between Iran and Israel inevitable, or are strategies being employed by both nations to deter direct military confrontation and prevent an escalation? In response to the killing of IRGC leaders in Damascus, what strategies and means are available to Iran for retaliation? In what ways could Iran utilize its proxies in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, and the Houthis in Yemen to retaliate? How can the GCC states and other countries in the region contribute to de-escalating tensions and potentially mediate to prevent a regional conflict? How could an escalation between Iran and Israel affect Lebanon, Syria and Iraq? In the event that Iran attacks the United States military bases in the Middle East, what range of responses might be anticipated from President Joe Biden’s administration? /episode/index/show/gulfmajlis/id/32246632

Book Talk with Dr. Courtney Freer "The Resilience of Parliamentary Politics in Kuwait" 07/22/2024

Sixth Panel at the Fifth Annual Gulf International Conference “Soft Power in the GCC: Sports Diplomacy, Mediation, and Cultural Industries” 05/30/2024

Fifth Panel at the Fifth Annual Gulf International Conference “The Gulf’s Ambitious Climate Action: Renewables, Green Policies, and Emission Reduction” 05/30/2024

Fourth Panel at the Fifth Annual Gulf International Conference “The Future of Knowledge Production in the Gulf: Media, Social Media and Artificial Intelligence” 05/30/2024

Third Panel at the Fifth Annual Gulf International Conference “Creative Insecurity: Disruptive Technologies and Youth Potential in the Gulf” 05/30/2024

Second Panel at the Fifth Annual Gulf International Conference "Reconciliation and Rivalry: the Role of Turkey, Iran and Israel in the Gulf" 05/30/2024

First panel at the Fifth Annual Gulf International Conference "Great Power Competition and America’s Standing in the Gulf" 05/30/2024

Between Mediators and Stakeholders: Gulf States’ Role in the Israel-Gaza Crisis. 05/30/2024

The U.S.'s Defense and Security Role in a Changing Gulf Landscape 09/20/2023

The U.S.'s Defense and Security Role in a Changing Gulf Landscape Featured Speakers: Dr. Dania Thafer, Shaikh Nawaf bin Mubarak Al Thani, Bilal Saab, and Ambassador Patrick Theros (moderator). Synopsis: Ever since the promulgation of President Jimmy Carter’s namesake “Carter Doctrine” in 1980, declaring that any threat to the free flow of commerce in the Gulf would be regarded as a threat to the United States, America has served as the Gulf’s primary security guarantor. American hegemony in the Gulf led the United States to protect the Strait of Hormuz during the Iran-Iraq War, force Saddam Hussein’s army from Kuwait in 1991, and topple the Iraqi dictator twelve years later. However, over the past two decades, America’s military deployments in the Gulf have come under greater scrutiny at home, and successive U.S. administrations have grown increasingly reluctant to participate in regional conflicts. While former president Trump sought to reassure America’s Gulf allies that the United States would continue to support them, he also pushed for the United States to draw down its regional military footprint, and President Biden has shown similar instincts, declining to support Saudi Arabia during its military intervention in Yemen and seeking to return to a nuclear agreement with Iran. Uncertainty over America’s future role in the Gulf has led its traditional partners in the region to seek alternative foreign patrons and address their own security needs. As Washington has wavered, the GCC states have pursued closer ties with Russia and China, America’s two great-power competitors, and have also sought to resolve their disagreements with the Islamic Republic. These new developments have forced the United States to seriously rethink its own strategy in the region. America is not a “Gulf state,” but it is directly affected by the events in it—much as it was under President Carter. What does the future hold for America and the Gulf? In what ways has America telegraphed uncertainty in its Gulf policy? How can Washington address Gulf states’ concerns in this regard? How have other world powers reacted? And must the “Carter Doctrine” always be enforced, or could it ever be made irrelevant by a new understanding of regional security? /episode/index/show/gulfmajlis/id/28092146

GCC-Turkish Relations in a New Era 09/20/2023

The Unrest in Sudan and the GCC States' Role 09/20/2023

The Unrest in Sudan and the GCC States' Role Featured speakers: Anas Alqaed, Dr. Khalid Mustafa Medani, Niemat Ahmadi, Mohamed Abu Bakr, and Umer Karim. Synopsis: Two months ago, violence broke out across Sudan between the country’s armed forces, led by General Abdul Fattah al-Burhan and the paramilitary “Rapid Support Forces” (RSF) led by Mohamed “Hemedti” Hamdan Dagalo. Although the conflict began in Khartoum as a struggle for control over government buildings and military bases, it has since spread across the country, leading to a dramatic escalation of violence and thousands of civilian deaths. According to the United Nations, 500,000 Sudanese have fled the country and 1.6 million have been internally displaced. In the last three weeks, the conflict in Darfur—a region still healing from the horrific campaign of ethnic cleansing by the “Janjaweed” militia, the RSF’s predecessor organization—has intensified, with the kidnapping and murder of a provincial governor, attacks on civilians, sexual violence against women and girls, and the renewed specter of crimes against humanity. To de-escalate the conflict, the international community has arranged peace talks in Jeddah, where representatives from both the SAF and the RSF have met for negotiations. These negotiations have been widely supported in the international community and have featured mediation from Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Israel, Ethiopia, South Sudan, the United States, the European Union, the African Union, the United Nations, and other international organizations and regional stakeholders. However, these talks have made limited to no progress, due in part to the conflicting interests of the peacemakers within the country. The Gulf states in particular have sought to increase their influence in Khartoum since the overthrow of longtime Sudanese dictator Omar al-Bashir, while the rivalry between Burhan and Hemedti has given Russia, Israel, Egypt, and the GCC a reason for greater involvement in Sudan’s affairs. How can the Gulf states constructively contribute to the end of the crisis in Sudan? What responsibility, if any, do the GCC states hold for the conflict? Why have the Jeddah talks failed to bring about a lasting ceasefire? What is the role of regional and international powers outside the Gulf in supporting the different groups? How do Russian, Israeli, Egyptian, and American interests intersect with interests of the Gulf states? /episode/index/show/gulfmajlis/id/28092092

Yemen's Road to Peace: Can the Riyadh-Houthi Pact Deliver? 09/20/2023

Yemen's Road to Peace: Can the Riyadh-Houthi Pact Deliver? Featured Speakers: Ambassador Patrick Theros, Ambassador Gerald Feierstein, Summer Nasser, Dr. Nabeel Khoury. Synopsis: One month after the eighth anniversary of the Saudi-led Arab coalition’s military intervention in Yemen, the first solid step toward peace between Riyadh and the Houthis took place in Sana’a, when the Saudi ambassador to Yemen met with leaders from the northern rebel movement. That meeting, mediated by Oman, was followed by statements from all sides stressing the need for a political resolution to the Yemen conflict and an end to violence. The meeting came at a time of general de-escalation and rapprochement across the Middle East; last year, Yemen witnessed the first lasting truce between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis, a significant exchange of prisoners, and several rounds of productive negotiations. Indeed, the progress in peace talks has alleviated some concerns of both sides and given civilians a crucial break from hostilities, enabling humanitarian work to proceed across the country. In spite of these encouraging trends, however, low-level clashes between pro-government forces and the Houthis have continued in Marib and other disputed areas. The motives for de-escalation between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis have played a clear role in the negotiations process fostered by Oman and the UN. Neither Riyadh nor Sana’a regarded the prolonging of the war with no clear winner as a desirable outcome. In order to proceed with its ambitious economic plans, Riyadh needs stability in the region and an end to the security threats along its southern border. In turn, the Houthis have sought international recognition for their rule and economic growth to legitimize their government. The greatest victor in a peace agreement will be the Yemeni people themselves, who have quietly suffered the war’s worst consequences since its onset. What are possible concessions for each side to initiate the peace process? How can a Saudi-Houthi agreement pave the way for a Yemeni-Yemeni agreement? How can Yemeni women and civil society organizations be part of any agreement? What are the priorities for any agreement to preserve the country’s unity and prevent future infighting? /episode/index/show/gulfmajlis/id/28092065

Book Talk | "Security Politics in the Gulf Monarchies: Continuity Amid Change," by Dr. David Roberts 09/20/2023

Iranian-Saudi Agreement: Impact on the Gulf and U.S.-Saudi Relations 03/31/2023

Iranian-Saudi Agreement: Impact on the Gulf and U.S.-Saudi Relations Featured Speakers: Dr. Dania Thafer, Dr. Abdulaziz Sager, Dr. Banafsheh Keynoush, and Dr. Kenneth Katzman. Synopsis: On March 10, 2023, the world was stunned by the announcement that the Gulf’s greatest rivals, Iran and Saudi Arabia, would restore diplomatic ties. Concluded in China after two years of negotiations in Iraq and Oman, the agreement was penned by the Iranian and Saudi National Security Advisors in the presence of the Chinese Foreign Minister. The accord commits both parties to resume diplomatic relations in two months, to respect the principles of non-interference and the sovereignty of states in the region, and to revive the 2001 security agreement that once improved ties between Tehran and Riyadh. The world witnessed several rounds of talks since the first meeting between the two states in April 2021, but it was the concluding session in China this month that paved the way for a meeting of Iran and Saudi Arabia’s foreign ministers and the ultimate announcement that the two countries would end the diplomatic deadlock of the past seven years. The March 10 statement gave observers few insights into the mechanisms that will resolve the two sides’ several outstanding disputes, however. Little information begets significant speculation, and it remains to be seen if the agreement will change the relationship of the Gulf’s most powerful rivals—or the regional roles of external great powers—in the years to come. How could the Gulf states leverage this agreement to end the war in Yemen? What factors motivated Iran and Saudi Arabia to sign the deal now? What were China’s interests in persuading both sides to reestablish diplomatic contact and pursue rapprochement? How will the United States’ role in the Gulf or America’s relationship with Riyadh be affected by China’s entry as a meditator in the region? Will this agreement limit the activities of the IRGC and proxy forces throughout the region? Will the IRGC commit to any de-escalation or security coordination agreements signed between Riyadh and the Raisi government? In the wider region, will conflict resolution efforts in Syria and Lebanon also benefit from the recent agreement? Is this agreement durable, or will it collapse? /episode/index/show/gulfmajlis/id/26407707

Book Talk | “#Russia and the #GCC: The Case of #Tatarstan's Paradiplomacy” by Dr. Diana Galeeva 03/31/2023

Ukraine, One Year On: Evaluating the Gulf's Role 02/23/2023

Ukraine, One Year On: Evaluating the Gulf's Role Featured Speakers: Dr. Dania Thafer, Dr. Cinzia Bianco, Dr. Samuel Ramani, and Eugene Chausovsky. Synopsis: As the Russian invasion of Ukraine approaches its first anniversary, the Gulf states have played a variety of roles in the conflict, both directly and peripherally. By providing drones and missiles to the Russian military, Iran has established itself as the Gulf’s most direct participant in the conflict, and the only country in the region whose leadership has openly sided with the Kremlin. By contrast, all six of the GCC states immediately voted to condemn the invasion at the United Nations General Assembly, and most have provided humanitarian aid to Ukraine over the past year. However, the GCC’s approaches to the conflict have varied by nation; while Kuwait and Qatar have vocally condemned Russia, the other four members of the bloc have preserved relatively cordial ties with Moscow, with the United Arab Emirates in particular emerging as an outlet for Russian finance. Much of the Gulf has continued to cooperate with Russia under the OPEC+ oil alliance, and Saudi Arabia and the UAE have worked to organize prisoner exchanges between the two sides, buying them goodwill in both Moscow and Kyiv and strengthening their soft-power credentials. Constrained by geopolitical considerations, the Western nations have adopted a nuanced approach toward the Gulf throughout the conflict. In the days following the invasion in February 2022, the United States and the European Union strongly pressured the six GCC states to condemn Russia at the General Assembly. After they did so, the West largely refrained from heavy-handed pressure on the Gulf to comply with sanctions on Moscow. Concurrently, Europe sought to increase its imports of oil and natural gas from the Gulf in order to offset sanctioned Russian hydrocarbons. However, after the OPEC+ decision in late 2022 to cut oil production in order to preserve high prices, a number of Western officials vocally condemned what they perceived as financial opportunism within the GCC states. In the second year of the war, with both the military outcome and its global financial impacts uncertain, the Gulf’s importance in the conflict will only grow. What factors motivate the Gulf states’ stances on the ongoing war? Why have some GCC nations condemned Russia and supported Ukraine more explicitly than others? How have the GCC states’ relations with Russia changed over the last year? Can Saudi Arabia and the UAE preserve their cordial relations with Moscow if hostilities escalate? How can the West (and Russia) encourage the Gulf nations to adopt a Ukraine policy closer to their interests? /episode/index/show/gulfmajlis/id/26025519

The Gulf in 2023: Challenges and Priorities 02/23/2023

The Gulf in 2023: Challenges and Priorities Featured speakers: Ambassador Patrick Theros, Alia Moubayed, Dr. David Pollock, and Dr. Jean-Loup Samaan. Synopsis: As the Russian invasion of Ukraine enters its second year, the conflict has decisively shaped political and economic issues in the Gulf. The rapid increase in oil and gas prices in the aftermath of the invasion has come as a boon to the GCC states, giving some of them a sizable budget surplus for the first time in years and easing pressures for economic reform. High oil and gas prices have also increased the Gulf’s strategic importance, giving its governments greater stature in international affairs. Both the United States and China have taken high-profile visits to the Gulf in the past year, encouraging GCC leaders to lower oil prices and increase strategic partnership. Each of the GCC capitals, and Riyadh and Abu Dhabi in particular, have used their newfound status to seek concessions from the two superpowers, playing them off against each other for their own interests. At the same time, Iranian assistance to Russia during the conflict—providing the Kremlin with Iranian-made missiles and drones—has dashed early hopes that the United States and Europe would attempt to renegotiate the JCPOA in order to allow Iranian oil to flow once more. Instead, Tehran’s crackdown on its ongoing protest movement has made the agreement politically untenable in the West. Negotiations between Iran and Saudi Arabia have also failed to make progress in resolving the two rivals’ longstanding disputes, although further negotiations are planned for the coming year. What does 2023 hold for the Gulf? Will the region’s windfall from high hydrocarbon prices decrease the odds of successful economic diversification? What role will the United States and China play in the region? Will Iran’s political crisis make it less likely to engage in regional adventurism, or will it seek to fight foreign enemies to distract from its problems at home? At a time of relative prosperity, could intra-GCC tensions flare up once again? /episode/index/show/gulfmajlis/id/26025438

Pursuing Greater Influence: The GCC States' Use of Soft Power 12/26/2022

Women, Peace, and Security: Gulf Perspectives on Integration, Inclusiveness and Integrity 12/11/2022

Women, Peace, and Security: Gulf Perspectives on Integration, Inclusiveness and Integrity Featured Speakers: Dr. Dania Thafer, Ambassador Julianne Smith, Ambassador Rend Al-Rahim, Dr. Banafsheh Keynoush, Ms. Maali Al-Asousi, and Dr. Mira Al-Hussein. This panel discussion is the final event in the joint program between Gulf International Forum and the U.S. Mission to NATO. Synopsis: In the ever-changing global security landscape, the increase of women's participation in peacebuilding is crucial for the stability, good governance, and gender equality of the Gulf region. Through coordinated public diplomacy efforts that seek to increase female inclusion in conflict prevention and resolution processes, the Gulf states, the United States, and other NATO member countries can address shared threats and improve collaboration in the security realm. Throughout the Gulf region, security risks and challenges are on the rise. However, there is a growing body of evidence which shows that the meaningful participation of women in peace operations and conflict resolution—especially in leadership positions—makes for stronger and more effective peacebuilding. Women’s efforts in government institutions, civil society organizations, and the private sector were substantial in easing the effects of armed conflicts and geopolitical tensions. Therefore, current global dynamics that underpin the Gulf region’s stability provide a strong foundation for constructive dialogue on women’s role in peace and security in the context of domestic and regional policies, and the NATO-Middle East relationship. Throughout this one-year program, we delved into the analysis and sharing of best practices on the role of women in current and recent Gulf region security issues. In the final event, our panelists will discuss the factors that continue to limit more meaningful participation of Gulf women in the security establishment, the most effective methods for enhancing participation—grassroots activism or state-driven initiatives, what does successful integration look like? and what are the consequences of continued exclusion? /episode/index/show/gulfmajlis/id/25290690

Understanding Iraq Crisis: Weak Institutions, Strong Militias, and Uncertain Future 10/04/2022

Understanding Iraq Crisis: Weak Institutions, Strong Militias, and Uncertain Future Featured speakers: Dr. Massaab Al-Aloosy, Rasha Al-Aqeedi, Dr. Shahla Al-Kli, and Zeidon Al-Kinani. Since October 2021, the government of Iraq has been embroiled in a seeming intractable political crisis. Following the victory of the “Sadrist Movement” in Iraq’s general election, the party sought for eight months to build a national majority coalition between Shias, Sunnis, and Kurds opposed to Iran’s growing influence in Iraq. However, the Sadrists’ leader, influential cleric Muqtada Al-Sadr, and his allies have consistently failed to break the majority required to appoint another president and prime minister. Al-Sadr’s actions have been strongly opposed by Iraq’s Shia pro-Iran “Coordination Framework,” which has pushed instead for a consensual government guaranteeing them decision-making authority. The Sadrists’ efforts toward government formation abruptly ended in June when the bloc’s members of parliament simultaneously resigned from parliament at Al-Sadr’s request. The move was followed by several waves of protests, leading to repeated occupations of the heavily fortified Green Zone and even the Iraqi parliament building; in the most recent round of protest, rival Shia armed groups backed by Iran and Al-Sadr clashed for the first time in the Green Zone, threatening to engulf the country in a Shia-Shia civil war. Order was restored after Al-Sadr ordered his supporters to leave the Green Zone and the Iraqi armed forces imposed a curfew, but the incident, shocking though it was, does not appear to have resolved the larger crisis. Iraq’s enduring social and sectarian divisions, exacerbated by foriegn influence, have led to an extremely unstable political situation in which no faction appears able to gain a secure majority and govern effectively and no authority seems willing or able to dissolve the current parliament and call for a new election. What are the constitutional dilemmas currently facing Iraq, particularly with regard to efforts to dissolve parliament? How have political alliances in Iraq changed since October 2021? What is the role of foreign intervention in exacerbating the crisis? How have militias growing power affected the political process? How can Iraqi leaders restore trust with each other? In the long run, what improvements, whether legislative or constitutional reforms or broader societal changes, could help to prevent a future crisis? /episode/index/show/gulfmajlis/id/24583332

Kuwaiti Elections: A Chance for Real Change? 10/04/2022

Biden in Saudi Arabia: Hope for the Challenged U.S.-Saudi Relationship? 10/04/2022

Biden in Saudi Arabia: Hope for the Challenged U.S.-Saudi Relationship? Featured speakers: Dr. Daniel Serwer (moderator), Dr. Abdullah Alshayji, Dr. Kristian Coates Ulrichsen, Anna Jacobs, and Professor Douglas London. Ever since the highly consequential meeting between President Franklin D. Roosevelt and King Abdulaziz of Saudi Arabia in 1945, the U.S.-Saudi relationship has steadily grown to become an important cornerstone of U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East. It is no secret that major challenges struck this relationship; policymakers in Washington and Riyadh traded harsh rhetorical blows over the 1973 oil embargo, the degree of Saudi Arabia’s culpability for the 9/11 terrorist attacks, the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003, and most recently the murder of dissident journalist Jamal Khashoggi by Saudi operatives in Istanbul. In spite of these tensions, the partnership between the two states has endured. In 2022, after the Russian invasion of Ukraine and as the U.S. is engaged in talks with Iran to revive the JCPOA nuclear agreement, the two countries appear to have realized the need for closer coordination. Among many issues, the stability of global oil markets, the geopolitics of the Gulf region, and other shared security and economic interests have brought Riyadh and Washington closer together again. At time that U.S. and Saudi officials navigate the short-term ups and downs in their bilateral relationship, there have been signs of a deeper divergence of geopolitical interests. Over the past decade, the two countries have held opposite views on the Arab Spring, the war in Yemen, the implementation of the JCPOA, the degree of Washington’s commitment to the security of the Gulf region, Saudi-Russian coordination in the oil market, and other topics related to the intra-GCC relations and domestic changes in Saudi Arabia. All of these topics have had an impact on the Saudi-American partnership. As the divergence becomes more obvious, Riyadh has pursued closer ties with Moscow and Beijing, and Washington has sought to form a more effective partnership with other Arab countries to balance its interests in the region. In 2022, what issues bring Washington and Riyadh closer together, or push them apart? Why is Biden visiting Riyadh after calling it a “pariah” state? Are the U.S.-Saudi relations institutionalized, or based on personal relations between the two countries’ leaders? How have the foundations of the geopolitical relationship changed over the last decade? Is Saudi Arabia looking for a new superpower partner? Finally, how have economic issues, including the global transition to cleaner energy, changed the calculus of the two countries’ relations? /episode/index/show/gulfmajlis/id/24583095

OPEC, Oil Prices, and the United States: Reasons for, and Solutions to, the Current Crisis 10/04/2022

OPEC, Oil Prices, and the United States: Reasons for, and Solutions to, the Current Crisis Featured Speaker: Rachel Ziemba, Dr. Carole Nakhleh, Dr. Jim Krane, and Dr. Jean-François Seznec. Synopsis: Halfway through 2022, global oil prices remain at historic levels. On May 31, barrels of Brent crude traded at $115—a remarkable spike from $79 per barrel just six months ago. The crisis sparked by this meteoric price increase has been long in the making. In 2021, the price of oil rebounded as the global economy recovered from the COVID-19 pandemic. Then, on February 24, 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine, ratcheting prices further upward. The tumult caused by rising oil prices has reached the United States, where gasoline prices have soared above $4 a gallon, setting records. Higher prices at the pump will have knock-on effects that go beyond limiting summer road trips, however, and will almost certainly slow economic growth and contribute to even greater domestic inflation. Though the largest single producer of oil, the United States must rely on other states and producers to reduce global oil prices. To this end, no grouping is as consequential as OPEC. From its inception in 1960, OPEC has maintained a tenuous relationship with the United States as both tried to influence or balance oil prices. Today, OPEC’s perceived inaction in the face of skyrocketing oil prices once again threatens to poison the United States’ relationship with Saudi Arabia, the de facto leader of OPEC and a state with whom relations have been strained under President Biden’s administration. In 2015, OPEC formed an alliance with Russia and other non-OPEC oil producers, known as OPEC+, to control global oil prices through close coordination of production levels and quotas between Moscow and Riyadh. Increasingly frustrated by the status quo, Congress appears poised to intervene in this burgeoning dispute through the No Oil Producing and Exporting Cartels, or NOPEC Act. Originally introduced 19 years ago, the bill has resurfaced this year as the U.S. government seeks to weaken the price-setting powers of OPEC. NOPEC would allow U.S. federal courts to prosecute OPEC member states for coordinating on global oil prices, undermining the purpose and viability of the Organization itself. What is the current status of the OPEC+ grouping, and will it survive a possible boycott of Russian oil or mounting U.S. pressure on Riyadh? How long can OPEC+ keep prices above $100 per barrel? Will Biden’s visit to Riyadh encourage the Saudis to pump more oil, or is their commitment to OPEC+ and their desire for higher oil prices more important than improved relations with Washington? What is the feasibility of NOPEC, and what would the likely consequences be of the legislation’s passage? /episode/index/show/gulfmajlis/id/24582957

New Truce and Presidential Council in Yemen: Impact on State, Domestic Politics, and Peace Process 10/04/2022

New Truce and Presidential Council in Yemen: Impact on State, Domestic Politics, and Peace Process Featured Speakers: Ambassador Patrick Theros, Dr. Nabeel Khoury, Sama’a Al-Hamdani, and Dr. Andrea Carboni. Synopsis: Yemen witnessed many positive developments between the first and last week of April. In the first week, coinciding with the start of Ramadan, all Yemeni parties announced a truce that continues to hold. In the last week, the internationally-recognized Yemeni government announced the resignation of President Abdrabbuh Mansour Hadi and the appointment of a Presidential Leadership Council headed by Rashad Muhammad al-Alimi. The new council includes leaders of nearly all the warring parties, except for Ansar Allah, the Iran-supported Houthi rebels. As a start in this direction and in hopes of cementing the truce, the warring parties arranged a prisoner exchange. The new council aims to end the infighting between the Saudi and Emirati-backed factions, but will face an even harder mission, bringing peace to the country and finding an agreement with the Houthis. The truce, the new council, and the prisoner swap have surely had a positive influence on Yemen and the region; the Houthis stopped launching missiles at Saudi Arabia and the UAE and tentative steps have been taken to open Hodeida Port and Sanaa airport to international relief supplies. However, many issues remain unresolved. The new council, now based in Aden rather than Riyadh, faces multiple challenges: restoring the functioning of the Yemeni state, finding terms to establish trust measures and a good basis for negotiations with the Houthis, and sustaining the truce. How could the UN and U.S. envoys push the peace process in Yemen? How has the new council and the truce changed domestic politics and power dynamics between the different government factions? What steps should be prioritized right now to alleviate the cost of conflict on Yemeni civilians? What other actions should the new council prioritize? How could Iran and Saudi Arabia find terms of understanding to support the political process in Yemen? What role should we expect Oman, Qatar, and Kuwait, who have tried to mediate throughout the eleven years of turmoil and conflict? /episode/index/show/gulfmajlis/id/24582891

Gulf International Forum's Majlis

TOPICS