How Far Could it Escalate? Israel and Iran's Shadow War
Gulf International Forum's Majlis
Release Date: 07/22/2024
Book Talk with Dr. Cinzia Bianco "The Gulf Monarchies After the Arab Spring"
Gulf International Forum's Majlis
Featured Speakers: Dr. Cinzia Bianco and Professor Luigi Narbone. About the Book: The post-Arab Spring collapse of decades-old regimes inaugurated a decade of re-shaping for the geopolitical order in the Middle East and North Africa region. A multipolar disorder ensued, solidified by the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Amid general bewilderment, the small monarchies of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) spent the decade between 2011 and 2022 trying to re-shape regional equilibria as protagonists. This book applies an original theoretical framework to unpack...
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Book Talk with Dr. Dania Thafer "Creative Insecurity: Institutional Inertia and Youth Potential in the Gulf"
Gulf International Forum's Majlis
Featured Speakers: Dr. Dania Thafer and Dr. Kristian Coates Ulrichsen. About the Book The Middle East is experiencing the world’s most prominent youth bulge. Yet many MENA economies’ institutional designs, both formal and informal, favor the power of business elites, systematically discriminating against young people joining the workforce or opening businesses, and thus limiting their ability to contribute to innovation. Large youth populations can be a boon or a curse: nurtured and integrated, they can jumpstart stratospheric growth; but if alienated and confined, they can drain a...
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Post-Raisi Iran: Succession, Domestic Politics, and Regional Implications
Gulf International Forum's Majlis
Featured Speakers: Ambassador Patrick Theros, Holly Dagres, Dr. Abdolrasool Divsallar, and Dr. Hamidreza Azizi. Event Synopsis On May 19th, a tragic helicopter crash near the Azerbaijan border resulted in the deaths of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian, and several other officials. In response to this devastating event, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei announced that First Vice President Mohammad Mokhber would assume the role of interim president. According to Iran’s constitution, a new presidential election must be held within 50 days, with...
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The Future of Kuwait: Consequences of Long-Term Parliamentary Absence
Gulf International Forum's Majlis
Featured Speakers: Ambassador Patrick Theros, Dr. Courtney Freer and Dr. Michael Herb. Synopsis: In a dramatic shift in Kuwait’s political landscape, on May 10, 2024, Emir Sheikh Mishal al-Ahmad al-Sabah declared the dissolution of the nation’s parliament and suspension of key constitutional articles for up to four years, only weeks after recent legislative elections. During this period, the emir and the cabinet will wield the legislative powers traditionally held by parliament. This marks the third instance of such a suspension in Kuwait in the last four decades. The emir cited...
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How Far Could it Escalate? Israel and Iran's Shadow War
Gulf International Forum's Majlis
Featured Speakers: Ambassador Patrick Theros, Dr. Kenneth Katzman, Brigadier General Mark Kimmitt, Dr. Ali Vaez and Natasha Hall. Synopsis On April 1st, an Israeli airstrike in Syria notably escalated tensions by targeting an annex of the Iranian Embassy in Damascus. This strike resulted in the deaths of seven leaders from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), among the casualties were Mohammad Reza Zahedi, the Quds Force commander for Lebanon and Syria, and his deputy, Mohammad Hadi Haji Rahimi. Their deaths represent the highest-level IRGC losses since the killing of Qassem...
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Book Talk with Dr. Courtney Freer "The Resilience of Parliamentary Politics in Kuwait"
Gulf International Forum's Majlis
About the Book The first English language political history of the Kuwaiti parliament, this book provides an unprecedented holistic treatment of grassroots contemporary Kuwaiti politics in English in over two decades, incorporating the country’s political dynamics into broader debates about the limits of authoritarianism and the practice of democracy in the Arab world, particularly in oil-wealthy states. Author Courtney Freer uses the lens of parliamentary elections as a means of understanding the political ideologies that have dominated in Kuwait since independence. As such, it situates the...
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Sixth Panel at the Fifth Annual Gulf International Conference “Soft Power in the GCC: Sports Diplomacy, Mediation, and Cultural Industries”
Gulf International Forum's Majlis
Sixth panel at the Fifth Annual Gulf International Conference hosted on November 16, 2023 at the National Press Club between 3:20 PM ET – 04:30 PM ET. Panel title "Soft Power in the GCC: Sports Diplomacy, Mediation, and Cultural Industries." Speakers: Khalid Saffuri (moderator), Founder and President of the National Interest Foundation Dr. Courtney Freer, Provost’s Postdoctoral Fellow, Emory University; Senior Non-Resident Fellow, Gulf International Forum Dr. Khalifa Al Suwaidi, Research Fellow, Anwar Gargash Diplomatic Academy Fatima Al-Dosari, Executive...
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Sixth Panel at the Fifth Annual Gulf International Conference “Soft Power in the GCC: Sports Diplomacy, Mediation, and Cultural Industries”
Gulf International Forum's Majlis
Sixth panel at the Fifth Annual Gulf International Conference hosted on November 16, 2023 at the National Press Club between 3:20 PM ET – 04:30 PM ET. Panel title "Soft Power in the GCC: Sports Diplomacy, Mediation, and Cultural Industries." Speakers: Khalid Saffuri (moderator), Founder and President of the National Interest Foundation Dr. Courtney Freer, Provost’s Postdoctoral Fellow, Emory University; Senior Non-Resident Fellow, Gulf International Forum Dr. Khalifa Al Suwaidi, Research Fellow, Anwar Gargash Diplomatic Academy Fatima Al-Dosari, Executive...
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Fifth Panel at the Fifth Annual Gulf International Conference “The Gulf’s Ambitious Climate Action: Renewables, Green Policies, and Emission Reduction”
Gulf International Forum's Majlis
Fifth panel at the Fifth Annual Gulf International Conference hosted on November 16, 2023 at the National Press Club between 3:20 PM ET – 04:30 PM ET. Panel title "The Gulf’s Ambitious Climate Action: Renewables, Green Policies, and Emission Reduction." Speakers: Dr. Wafa Al-Daily (moderator), Board Member, Gulf International Forum Princess Noura Bint Turki Al Saud, Founding Partner, AEON strategy Ben Cahill, Senior Fellow, Center for Strategic and International Studies Dr. Sara Vakhshouri, Adjunct Professor of Energy Security and Director of the Center for Energy...
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Fourth Panel at the Fifth Annual Gulf International Conference “The Future of Knowledge Production in the Gulf: Media, Social Media and Artificial Intelligence”
Gulf International Forum's Majlis
Fourth panel at the Fifth Annual Gulf International Conference hosted on November 16, 2023 at the National Press Club between 2:00 PM ET – 03:10 PM ET. Panel title "The Future of Knowledge Production in the Gulf: Media, Social Media and Artificial Intelligence" Speakers: Zaid Benjamin, Journalist and Blogger (moderator) Dr. Khalid Aljaber, Director, MENA Center Dr. Mohammad Alrumaihi, Professor of Sociology, Kuwait University; Board of Directors Member, Gulf International Forum Joyce Karam, Senior News Editor, Al-Monitor Abderrahim Foukara, Bureau Chief for the...
info_outlineFeatured Speakers: Ambassador Patrick Theros, Dr. Kenneth Katzman, Brigadier General Mark Kimmitt, Dr. Ali Vaez and Natasha Hall.
Synopsis
On April 1st, an Israeli airstrike in Syria notably escalated tensions by targeting an annex of the Iranian Embassy in Damascus. This strike resulted in the deaths of seven leaders from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), among the casualties were Mohammad Reza Zahedi, the Quds Force commander for Lebanon and Syria, and his deputy, Mohammad Hadi Haji Rahimi. Their deaths represent the highest-level IRGC losses since the killing of Qassem Soleimani in January 2020. This incident intensifies the longstanding tensions between Iran and Israel, adding to a history of targeted assassinations that include high-ranking officials from Iran, Hezbollah, and Hamas by Israel, exacerbating hostilities while stopping short of sparking a full-scale conflict. In retaliation, Iran and Hezbollah have vowed to retaliate against Israel and the United States, with Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, promising retribution.
On April 14, Iran responded by launching hundreds of drones and missiles aimed at Israel. With the help of the United States, the United Kingdom, and France, Israeli defense forces successfully intercepted all incoming projectiles, effectively thwarting the Iranian attack. Israel’s war cabinet is now deliberating potential retaliatory measures in response to what they perceive as an unprecedented aerial offensive. However, the consequences of any such retaliation are unclear and could potentially escalate tensions, risking a broader regional conflict.
Is conflict between Iran and Israel inevitable, or are strategies being employed by both nations to deter direct military confrontation and prevent an escalation? In response to the killing of IRGC leaders in Damascus, what strategies and means are available to Iran for retaliation? In what ways could Iran utilize its proxies in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, and the Houthis in Yemen to retaliate? How can the GCC states and other countries in the region contribute to de-escalating tensions and potentially mediate to prevent a regional conflict? How could an escalation between Iran and Israel affect Lebanon, Syria and Iraq? In the event that Iran attacks the United States military bases in the Middle East, what range of responses might be anticipated from President Joe Biden’s administration?