Macro Musings with David Beckworth
Hosted by David Beckworth of the Mercatus Center, Macro Musings pulls back the curtain on the important macroeconomic issues of the past, present, and future.
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Emil Verner on Banking Crises, Credit Booms, and the Rise of Populism
11/18/2024
Emil Verner on Banking Crises, Credit Booms, and the Rise of Populism
Emil Verner is an associate professor of finance at MIT Sloan and is a research fellow at the National Bureau of Economic Research. Emil has written widely on financial stability, banking panics, and credit booms, and he joins David on Macro Musings to talk about these issues. Specifically, David and Emil also discuss the causes and policy implications of bank failures, the shortcomings of the Diamond-Dybvig model of bank runs, how financial crises spur the rise of populism, and much more. Transcript for this week’s Register now for . Emil’s Twitter: Emil’s David Beckworth’s Twitter: Follow us on Twitter: Check out our new AI chatbot: the ! Join the new Macro Musings ! Join the Macro Musings Check out our Macro Musings Related Links: by Sergio Correia, Stephan Luck, and Emil Verner by Matthew Baron, Emil Verner, and Wei Xiong by Gyozo Gyongyosi and Emil Verner by Charles Calomiris and Stephen Haber by Manuel Funke, Moritz Schularick, and Christoph Trebesch Timestamps: (00:00:00) – Intro (00:03:45) – Why Do We Care About Banking Panics and Financial Stability? (00:05:42) – Breaking Down the Causes of Bank Failures and its Policy Implications (00:13:38) – Exploring the Historical Banking Data (00:15:59) – *Failing Banks*: Key Findings and Takeaways (00:24:00) – *Banking Crises Without Panics* (00:28:05) – Responding to the Diamond-Dybvig Model of Bank Runs (00:33:29) – Applying the Bank Solvency Story to the Great Financial Crisis (00:36:16) – The Impact of Credit Booms (00:40:56) – What Are the Necessary Policy Prescriptions? (00:43:08) – Why is Diamond-Dybvig So Popular? (00:47:01) – *Financial Crisis, Creditor-Debtor Conflict, and Populism* (00:52:55) – How Do We Stem the Tide of Populism in the Future? (00:54:36) – Outro
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Loretta Mester on How to Improve the Fed’s Operating Framework
11/11/2024
Loretta Mester on How to Improve the Fed’s Operating Framework
Loretta Mester was president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland from 2014 through June of 2024, and she is a 39-year veteran of the Federal Reserve System. Loretta is also currently an adjunct professor of finance at the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania. She joins David on Macro Musings to talk about her time as Fed president and a recent paper she delivered on the Fed’s operating system. David and Loretta also discuss the ongoing battle against inflation, what to expect from the upcoming Fed framework review, and much more. Transcript for this week’s Register now for . Loretta’s Cleveland Fed Loretta’s Wharton David Beckworth’s Twitter: Follow us on Twitter: Check out our new AI chatbot: the ! Join the new Macro Musings ! Join the Macro Musings Check out our Macro Musings Related Links: – Remarks by Loretta Mester for the Panel on The Conduct of Monetary Policy: Evolution from Free Reserves to the Corridor and Floor Systems at the Shadow Open Market Committee 50th Anniversary Conference by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York Timestamps: (00:00:00) – Intro (00:02:18) – Loretta’s Career Path and Tenure at the Cleveland Fed (00:10:42) – The Ongoing Battle Against Inflation (00:17:53) – Evaluating FAIT and What to Expect from the 2024-25 Fed Framework Review (00:26:03) – Corridor vs. Floor: The Evolution of the Fed’s Operating System and its Policy Implications (00:41:31) – Estimating the Demand for Bank Reserves (00:45:57) – Addressing Over-reliance on the Fed in the Interbank Market (00:52:45) – Loretta’s Thoughts on Central Clearing and Increased Use of the Discount Window (00:55:23) – Outro
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Jon Hartley on the Shadow Open Market Committee and Macroeconomic Policy
11/04/2024
Jon Hartley on the Shadow Open Market Committee and Macroeconomic Policy
Jon Hartley is a macroeconomist and affiliated scholar at the Mercatus Center, and he is also the host of a Hoover Institution podcast titled, *Capitalism and Freedom in the 21st Century.* Jon joins David on Macro Musings to talk about the Hoover Institution’s recent monetary policy conference, *A 50-Year Retrospective on the Shadow Open Market Committee and its Role in Monetary Policy* as well as some of his own related work. Specifically, Jon and David also discuss the origins, purpose, and influence of the Shadow Open Market Committee, the tension between the fiscal theory of the price level and Fed policy, the significance of government debt management, and more. DISCLAIMER: The views expressed herein are those of the authors and should not be attributed to the IMF, its Executive Board, or its management. Transcript for this week’s Register now for . Jon’s podcast: Jon’s Twitter: Jon’s David Beckworth’s Twitter: Follow us on Twitter: Check out our new AI chatbot: the ! Join the new Macro Musings ! Join the Macro Musings Check out our Macro Musings Related Links: - An event hosted by the Hoover Institution by Jon Hartley, Matyas Farkas, and J.R. Scott by Jon Hartley and Lorenzo Rigon by Hanno Lustig, Zhengyang Jiang, Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, and Mindy Xiaolan by Nuno Palma by Francois Velde Timestamps: (00:00:00) – Bumper (00:00:41) – Intro (00:04:50) – The Origins, Purpose, and Influence of the Shadow Open Market Committee (00:13:18) – Why Has Money Fallen Out of Favor? (00:22:31) – How Well Does the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level Hold Up? (00:34:58) – The Tension Between the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level and Fed Policy (00:40:58) – Does Government Debt Management Matter? (00:51:10) – The Floor System, Quantitative Easing, and the Keys to Economic Growth (00:59:41) – Outro
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Tara Sinclair on Real-time Economic Analysis and the Fed’s Upcoming Framework Review
10/28/2024
Tara Sinclair on Real-time Economic Analysis and the Fed’s Upcoming Framework Review
Tara Sinclair is a professor of economics and international affairs at George Washington University, where she also directs the George Washington Center for Economic Research. From 2022 to 2024, Tara also served as the Deputy Assistant Secretary for Macroeconomics in the Office of Economic Policy at the US Department of Treasury. Tara joins David on Macro Musings to talk about her time at Treasury, real-time economic analysis, the Fed framework review, and much more. Transcript for this week’s Tara’s Twitter: Tara’s Tara’s GWU David Beckworth’s Twitter: Follow us on Twitter: Check out our new AI chatbot: the ! Join the new Macro Musings ! Join the Macro Musings Check out our Macro Musings Related Links: - Remarks by Tara Sinclair at the 2024 RTE Conference - Remarks by Tara Sinclair at the 66th NABE Annual Meeting by Mickey Levy and Charles Plosser by Gauti Eggertsson and Don Kohn by Michael Kiley by Christina Romer and David Romer Timestamps: (00:00:00) – Intro (00:01:25) – Working as a Deputy Assistant Secretary at the Treasury Department (00:06:31) – Building a Better Economic Database (00:10:15) – Breaking Down Real-time Economics and Real-time Data (00:16:06) – *Real Time Economics: Tales from the Trenches* (00:21:37) – Solving Our Current Data Challenges (00:24:36) – *Labor Shortages and Job Mismatch* (00:32:08) – Breaking Down the Upcoming Fed Framework Review (00:37:56) – Addressing the Concerns and Issues Surrounding the Fed’s Framework (00:42:50) – Unpacking the Dual Mandate and the Fed’s Broad and Inclusive Goal (00:53:45) – Could AI Define Maximum Employment in the Future? (00:56:13) – Outro
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Joseph Gagnon on the Trinity of COVID-era Inflation and the Upcoming Fed Framework Review
10/21/2024
Joseph Gagnon on the Trinity of COVID-era Inflation and the Upcoming Fed Framework Review
Joseph Gagnon is a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, a former senior Fed staffer, and a returning guest to the podcast. Joe rejoins David on Macro Musings to talk about the unholy trinity behind the COVID inflation surge and what history can teach us about the unusual inflation experience of that period. David and Joe also discuss the inflationary lessons from the Korean War, the Fed’s upcoming framework review, and much more. Transcript for this week’s Joseph’s Twitter: Joseph’s PIIE David Beckworth’s Twitter: Follow us on Twitter: Check out our new AI chatbot: the ! Join the new Macro Musings ! Join the Macro Musings Check out our Macro Musings Related Links: by Ben Bernanke and Olivier Blanchard by Laurence Ball, Daniel Leigh, and Prachi Mishra Timestamps: (00:00:00) – Intro (00:02:46) – Predicting the Post-Pandemic Inflation Surge (00:06:39) – Assessing the State of the Bond Market and Inflation Expectations After the Inflation Surge (00:16:14) – What Caused the U.S. Pandemic-Era Inflation: Breaking Down the Literature (00:23:45) – *The Trinity of COVID-Era Inflation in G7 Economies* (00:32:55) – *Why Did Inflation Rise and Fall So Rapidly? Lessons from the Korean War* (00:42:06) – Inflation, FAIT, and the Upcoming Fed Framework Review (00:49:18) – Why Should the Fed Consider Nominal GDP Targeting? (00:53:04) – Responding to the Measurement Issue Surrounding Nominal GDP (00:57:40) – Outro
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Emilio Ocampo on Dollarization and the State of the Argentine Economy
10/14/2024
Emilio Ocampo on Dollarization and the State of the Argentine Economy
Emilio Ocampo is a professor of finance and economic history at UCEMA. He has written widely on the Argentine economy and has advised President Javier Milei on economic policy. Emilio joins David on Macro Musings to talk about the current state of the Argentine economy, the present and ongoing reforms of President Milei, and the prospects for dollarization in Argentina. Transcript for this week’s Emilio’s Twitter: Emilio’s Emilio’s UCEMA David Beckworth’s Twitter: Follow us on Twitter: Check out our new AI chatbot: the ! Join the new Macro Musings ! Join the Macro Musings Check out our Macro Musings Related Links: by Emilio Ocampo by Emilio Ocampo and Nicolas Cachanosky by Ryan Dube Timestamps: (00:00:00) – Intro (00:03:58) – Assessing Argentina’s Progress on Lowering Inflation (00:11:12) – Exploring the Causes of Argentina’s Poor Economic Performance (00:15:20) – *Commitment Devices with Time Inconsistency Disease and Institutional Anomie* (00:26:29) – Javier Milei’s Plan to Revive Argentina (00:31:39) – The Next Steps for Argentine Economic Reform (00:39:56) – Defining Dollarization and Exploring its Historical Cases (00:49:33) – Transitioning to Dollarization in Argentina (00:55:12) – Dollarization Concerns and the Prospects for Dollarization Moving Forward (00:58:48) – Outro
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Jonathon Hazell on the Costs and Causes of Inflation and the Phillips Curve Debate
10/07/2024
Jonathon Hazell on the Costs and Causes of Inflation and the Phillips Curve Debate
Jonathon Hazell is an assistant professor of economics at the London School of Economics and is a returning guest to the podcast. He rejoins David on Macro Musings to talk about the costs of inflation, the Phillips curve Debate, and the lessons learned from the post-pandemic inflation surge. Transcript for this week’s Jonathon’s Twitter: Jonathon’s Jonathon’s LSE David Beckworth’s Twitter: Follow us on Twitter: Check out our new AI chatbot: the ! Join the new Macro Musings ! Join the Macro Musings Check out our Macro Musings Related Links: by Jonathon Hazell, Joao Guerreiro, Chen Lian, and Christina Patterson by Jonathon Hazell and Stephan Hobler by Macro Musings by Paul Beaudry, Chenyu Hou, and Franck Portier Timestamps: (00:00:00) – Intro (00:05:27) – Breaking Down the Costs of Inflation (00:08:45) – *Why Do Workers Dislike Inflation? Wage Erosion and Conflict Costs* (00:21:12) – Outlining the Policy Implications (00:27:24) – The Recent Phillips Curve Conversation: What Have We Learned? (00:34:43) – *Do Deficits Cause Inflation? A High Frequency Narrative Approach* (00:46:39) – Navigating the Alternative Macroeconomics Perspectives (00:51:33) – Evaluating the Supply vs Demand Story for the Post-Pandemic Inflation (00:55:09) – Outro
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Thomas Drechsel on the Effects of Political Pressure and Identifying Monetary Policy Shocks
09/30/2024
Thomas Drechsel on the Effects of Political Pressure and Identifying Monetary Policy Shocks
Thomas Drechsel is an assistant professor of economics at the University of Maryland. He joins David on Macro Musings to talk about the political pressure on the Fed and the new ways to measure monetary policy shocks. Thomas and David also discuss fiscal and monetary dominance, the impact of political pressure on inflation, why we should care about central bank independence, and more. Transcript for this week’s Thomas’s Thomas’s Twitter: David Beckworth’s Twitter: Follow us on Twitter: Check out our new AI chatbot: the ! Join the new Macro Musings ! Join the Macro Musings Check out our Macro Musings Related Links: by Thomas Drechsel by S. Boragan Aruoba and Thomas Drechsel by Alberto Alesina and Lawrence Summers by Juan Antolin-Diaz and Juan Rubio-Ramirez by Francesco Bianchi, Thilo Kind, and Howard Kung by Christina Romer and David Romer Timestamps: (00:00:00) – Intro (00:04:47) – Why Should We Care About Central Bank Independence? (00:08:01) – Fiscal and Monetary Dominance (00:12:41) – Estimating the Effects of Political Pressure on the Fed (00:27:14) – Breaking Down the Research Results (00:36:46) – The Impact of Political Pressure on Inflation (00:43:07) – Identifying Monetary Policy Shocks: Background, Methodology, and Results (00:59:45) – Outro
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Matthew Pines on the Geopolitical and National Security Implications of Cryptocurrency Adoption
09/23/2024
Matthew Pines on the Geopolitical and National Security Implications of Cryptocurrency Adoption
Matthew Pines is the director of intelligence for SentinelOne Strategic Advisory Group and is a veteran of the national security world. Matthew is also the author of several papers on cryptocurrencies and their implications for national security, including a recent one titled, *Great Power Network Competition & Bitcoin,* and he joins David on Macro Musings to talk about these linkages. Specifically, David and Matthew also discuss the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve proposal, the problems with our current network approach to national security, how digital currency can enhance dollar dominance worldwide, and much more. Transcript for this week’s Matthew’s Twitter: Matthew’s Bitcoin Policy Institute David Beckworth’s Twitter: Follow us on Twitter: Check out our new AI chatbot: the ! Join the new Macro Musings ! Join the Macro Musings Check out our Macro Musings Related Links: by Matthew Pines by authors Matthew Pines, Ben Kincaid, Robert Malka, James McGinniss, Lee Bratcher, Pierre Rochard, Lindsey Daley, Gabriel Royal, Thomas Wood, Ian Gaines, and Kyle Schneps by Paul Tucker Timestamps: (00:00:00) – Intro (00:01:35) – Matthew’s Journey into the National Security Space (00:07:56) – Evaluating the Current Level of Defense Expenditures (00:12:17) – An Executive Summary of *Great Power Network Competition & Bitcoin* (00:16:11) – Problems with Our Current Network Approach to National Security (00:26:24) – The Intersection of Monetary Policy and National Security (00:29:55) – How Can Digital Currency Enhance Dollar Dominance Across the Globe? (00:38:32) – Breaking Down the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Proposal and Its Implications (00:48:13) – The National Defense Authorization Act and the Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena Disclosure Act: Basics and Implications (00:57:29) – Outro
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Travis Hill on the Discount Window, Receivership Funding, and Financial Tokenization
09/16/2024
Travis Hill on the Discount Window, Receivership Funding, and Financial Tokenization
Travis Hill is the Vice Chairman of the FDIC Board of Directors, and he joins David on Macro Musings to talk about discount window and bank liquidity, receivership funding, and the tokenization of financial assets. Specifically, David and Travis also discuss the push for pre-positioning at the discount window, how the FDIC funds receiverships, the impact of tokenization on the future of banking, and much more. Transcript for this week’s Travis’s FDIC David Beckworth’s Twitter: Follow us on Twitter: Check out our new AI chatbot: the ! Join the new Macro Musings ! Join the Macro Musings Check out our Macro Musings Related Links: – Remarks by Vice Chairman Travis Hill at the American Enterprise Institute – Remarks by Vice Chairman Travis Hill at the Mercatus Center Timestamps: (00:00:00) – Intro (00:02:36) – The Unique Role of the FDIC and the Vice Chair (00:10:58) – The Push for Pre-Positioning at the Discount Window (00:20:19) – Addressing the Current Issues Relating to the Discount Window (00:28:44) – How Does the FDIC Fund Receiverships? (00:35:41) – Breaking Down the Federal Financing Bank (00:40:10) – Discount Window Stigma and Uncollateralized Fed Funding (00:45:44) – Tokenization and Its Impact on the Future of Banking and Cross-Border Payments (00:54:40) – Outro
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Catherine Pakaluk on *Hannah’s Children: The Women Quietly Defying the Birth Dearth*
09/09/2024
Catherine Pakaluk on *Hannah’s Children: The Women Quietly Defying the Birth Dearth*
Catherine Pakaluk is an Associate Professor of Social Research and Economic Thought at the Bush School of Business at the Catholic University of America. Catherine is also the author of a new book titled, *Hannah’s Children: The Women Quietly Defying the Birth Dearth,* and she joins David on Macro Musings to talk about it. Catherine and David also specifically discuss the facts of demographic decline, the women who are pushing back against this trend, its broader implications for the economy and society, and more. Transcript for this week’s Catherine’s Twitter: Catherine’s Catherine’s CUA David Beckworth’s Twitter: Follow us on Twitter: Check out our new AI chatbot: the ! Join the new Macro Musings ! Join the Macro Musings Check out our Macro Musings Related Links: by Catherine Pakaluk by Rachel Wolfe by Paul Morland by Kathryn Edin and Maria Kefalas Timestamps: (00:00:00) – Intro (00:03:16) – *Hannah’s Children: The Women Quietly Defying the Birth Dearth* (00:08:30) – The Facts of Demographic Decline (00:12:48) – The Implications of Demographic Decline (00:20:28) – Breaking Down the “Chain of Infinity” (00:23:15) – The Forces Driving Demographic Decline (00:32:18) – The Influence and Impact of Paul Ehrlich (00:38:16) – The Motivation and Background for *Hannah’s Children* (00:43:29) – Why Are Women Having Larger Families? (00:52:18) – Exploring Pronatal Policy Recommendations (00:57:03) – Outro
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Stephen Miran on Activist Treasury Issuance and the Monetary Policy Implications of a Second Trump Term
09/02/2024
Stephen Miran on Activist Treasury Issuance and the Monetary Policy Implications of a Second Trump Term
Stephen Miran is a former senior advisor to the US Treasury Department, a senior strategist at Hudson Bay Capital, and a fellow at the Manhattan Institute. Stephen is also a returning guest to the podcast, and he rejoins David on Macro Musings to talk about his recent paper with Nouriel Roubini titled, *Activist Treasury Issuance and the Tug-of-War Over Monetary Policy,* as well as his thoughts on what a second Trump presidential term would mean for the Fed and financial markets. Transcript for this week’s Stephen’s Twitter: Stephen’s Manhattan Institute David Beckworth’s Twitter: Follow us on Twitter: Check out our new AI chatbot: the ! Join the new Macro Musings ! Join the Macro Musings Check out our Macro Musings Related Links: by Stephen Miran and Nouriel Roubini by Saleha Mohsin and Carter Johnson by Andrew Restuccia, Nick Timiraos, and Alex Leary Timestamps: (00:00:00) – Intro (00:01:49) – Breaking Down *Activist Treasury Issuance and the Tug-of-War Over Monetary Policy* (00:21:33) – Responding to Criticism from Janet Yellen and Others (00:28:21) – Addressing Trump’s Push for a Weaker Dollar (00:38:24) – Can We Weaken the Dollar While Still Ensuring Its Use? (00:43:07) – What a Second Trump Term Would Mean for Fed Independence and Crypto (00:49:19) – Outro
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Carola Binder on the History of Inflation, the Fed Framework Review, and the Promise of Nominal GDP Targeting
08/26/2024
Carola Binder on the History of Inflation, the Fed Framework Review, and the Promise of Nominal GDP Targeting
Carola Binder is an associate professor of civic leadership and economics at the University of Texas at Austin, and she is the author of a new book titled, *Shock Values: Prices and Inflation in American Democracy.* Carola is also a returning guest to the podcast, and she rejoins David on Macro Musings to talk about this book and some recent work she has done on the Fed’s framework review. David and Carola specifically discuss the history of inflation in the US, the advantages of adopting a nominal GDP targeting regime, what to expect from the Fed’s upcoming framework review, and more. Transcript for this week’s Carola’s Twitter: Carola’s David Beckworth’s Twitter: Follow us on Twitter: Check out our new AI chatbot: the ! Join the new Macro Musings ! Join the Macro Musings Check out our Macro Musings Related Links: by Carola Binder by Stefanie Stantcheva Timestamps: (00:00:00) – Intro (00:03:42) – *Nominal GDP Targeting: Lessons from Recent History* (00:12:18) – NGDP Level Targeting: Looking Through Supply Shocks and Policy Communication (00:17:16) – *Shock Values: Prices and Inflation in American Democracy* (00:21:44) – The History of Inflation and Deflation in the US (00:30:30) – Key Lessons from the Revolutionary War and Civil War Periods (00:35:37) – The Impact of Price Controls During World War II (00:40:42) – The Emergence of Price Stability: From the Great Inflation Period to the Present (00:46:24) – The Direction of the Fed’s Framework Review (00:49:22) – Outro
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Samim Ghamami on How to Reform the Treasury Market
08/19/2024
Samim Ghamami on How to Reform the Treasury Market
Samim Ghamami is an economist at the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), where he has been working on reforming the US Treasury market, and he joins David on Macro Musings to talk about these efforts. Samim and David also discuss the long run path of interest rates, the basics of the Treasury market, Samim’s outlook for Treasury market reform, and much more. DISCLAIMER: Samim’s views are his own and do not represent those of his SEC colleagues, the commissioners, or the Chair. Transcript for this week’s Samim’s Twitter: Samim’s David Beckworth’s Twitter: Follow us on Twitter: Check out our new AI chatbot: the ! Join the new Macro Musings ! Join the Macro Musings Check out our Macro Musings Timestamps: (00:00:00) – Intro (00:00:58) – Samim’s Journey to the SEC (00:05:47) – Breaking Down the Size and Composition of the Treasury Market (00:10:25) – Explaining the Long Run Path of Interest Rates (00:18:48) – The Key Segments of the Treasury Market (00:28:25) – Central Clearing as a Treasury Market Reform (00:34:40) – Picking the Most Effective Treasury Market Reform (00:37:39) – Samim’s Future Outlook for Other Treasury Market Reforms (00:43:46) – Addressing Risk Concentration Concerns (00:48:26) – Outro
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Kyla Scanlon on the “Vibecession”, the Vibe Economy, and the Path to Growing American Wealth
08/12/2024
Kyla Scanlon on the “Vibecession”, the Vibe Economy, and the Path to Growing American Wealth
Kyla Scanlon is the founder of Bread, a financial education company where she brings economics to a wide and often younger audience, and is also the author of the book, *In This Economy? How Money and Markets Really Work.* Kyla joins David on Macro Musings to talk about a wide range of economic issues, including the case nominal GDP targeting, the basics of the “Vibecession” and the vibe economy, how to further build American wealth, and more. Transcript for this week’s Kyla’s Twitter: Kyla’s David Beckworth’s Twitter: Follow us on Twitter: Check out our new AI chatbot: the ! Join the new Macro Musings ! Join the Macro Musings Check out our Macro Musings Related Links: by Kyla Scanlon by George Selgin Timestamps: (00:00:00) – Intro (00:01:06) – Kyla’s Academic and Professional Path (00:15:20) – Flipping the Macro Musings Script: David’s NGDP Targeting Pitch (00:30:52) – Breaking Down the “Vibecession” and the Vibe Economy (00:34:41) – The Housing Side of a Vibe Economy (00:38:54) – The Path to Growing American Wealth (00:41:40) – The Issue of Population Growth (00:44:15) – Gen Z’s Interest in Macroeconomics (00:47:52) – How Should We Think About Labor Market Indicators? (00:50:51) – Outro
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Sam Schulhofer-Wohl on How to Improve Treasury Market Resiliency
08/05/2024
Sam Schulhofer-Wohl on How to Improve Treasury Market Resiliency
Sam Schulhofer-Wohl is the Senior Vice President and the Senior Advisor to the President of the Dallas Fed, Lorie Logan. Sam is a longtime veteran of the Federal Reserve System and has also previously served at the Minneapolis and Chicago Federal Reserve banks. Sam joins David on Macro Musings to talk about Treasury market resiliency issues, the floor system, the Friedman Rule, bank deposits, the monetary policy implications of labor migration across the United States, and much more. Transcript for this week’s Sam’s Dallas Fed Sam’s David Beckworth’s Twitter: Follow us on Twitter: Check out our new AI chatbot: the ! Join the new Macro Musings ! Join the Macro Musings Check out our Macro Musings Related Links: by Sam Schulhofer-Wohl by Emily Greenwald, Sam Schulhofer-Wohl, and Joshua Younger by Greg Kaplan and Sam Schulhofer-Wohl by Marta Chaffee and Sam Schulhofer-Wohl by Michael Fleming and Frank Keane - A speech by Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan at the 2023 European Central Bank Conference on Money Markets Timestamps: (00:00:00) – Intro (00:01:31) – Sam’s Wide-Ranging Career Path (00:11:08) – The Customer Settlement Risk Externality (00:14:30) – Breaking Down the Treasury Market (00:18:38) – The Importance and Effectiveness of Central Clearing (00:26:50) – The History and Role of FICC (00:32:27) – All-to-all Trades as a Path to Reforming the Treasury Market (00:36:52) – The Future Timeline for Central Clearing (00:39:07) – *Ample Reserves and the Friedman Rule* (00:46:52) – *Deposit Convexity, Monetary Policy, and Financial Stability* (00:52:21) – The Importance of Labor Migration for Monetary Policy (00:59:42) – Outro
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Nicholas Anthony on *Digital Currency or Digital Control: Decoding CBDC and the Future of Money*
07/29/2024
Nicholas Anthony on *Digital Currency or Digital Control: Decoding CBDC and the Future of Money*
Nicholas Anthony is a policy analyst at the Cato Institute’s Center for Monetary and Financial Alternatives, a fellow at the Human Rights Foundation, and is also a returning guest to the podcast. Nick rejoins David on Macro Musings to talk about a new book he has authored titled, *Digital Currency or Digital Control: Decoding CBDC and the Future of Money.* Specifically, Nicholas and David discuss the history of CBDCs, their challenges and drawbacks, Nick’s recommendations for the future, and a lot more. Transcript for this week’s Nick’s Twitter: Nick’s Cato David Beckworth’s Twitter: Follow us on Twitter: Check out our new AI chatbot: the ! Join the new Macro Musings ! Join the Macro Musings Check out our Macro Musings Related Links: by Nicholas Anthony by Macro Musings by Ulrich Bindseil and Richard Senner by Macro Musings Timestamps: (00:00:00) – Intro (00:01:50) – The Future Prospects of CBDC: From Congress to the White House (00:07:35) – The History of CBDCs (00:11:19) – Breaking Down the Three Types of CBDCs (00:17:22) – The Challenges and Drawbacks of CBDCs (00:25:42) – The Buffer Between CBDCs and Privacy (00:31:00) – Wholesale CBDCs, Real-time Payments, and Cross-border Payments (00:41:06) – The Potential Destabilizing Effects of CBDCs (00:46:12) – The Pros and Cons of a CBDC for the Fed (00:53:23) – Responding to Pro-CBDC Arguments (00:59:05) – Recommendations for the Future of CBDCs (01:01:92) – Outro
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James Bullard on FAIT, Nominal GDP Targeting, and the Fed’s Upcoming Framework Review
07/22/2024
James Bullard on FAIT, Nominal GDP Targeting, and the Fed’s Upcoming Framework Review
James Bullard was the president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis from 2008 to 2023, and he is currently the dean of the Mitchell E. Daniels Jr. School of Business at Purdue University. James is also a previous guest of the show, and he rejoins David on Macro Musings to talk about his time at the Fed, FAIT, and the upcoming Fed framework review. Specifically, James and David also discuss how to improve the FOMC’s economic reporting, the case for implementing nominal GDP targeting, the future of R-star, and much more. Transcript for this week’s James’s St. Louis Fed James’s Purdue University David Beckworth’s Twitter: Follow us on Twitter: Check out our new AI chatbot: the ! Join the new Macro Musings ! Join the Macro Musings Check out our Macro Musings Related Links: - A presentation by James Bullard at the 34th Annual National Association for Business Economics (NABE) Economic Policy Conference by Yan Bai, Jose-Victor Rios-Rull, and Kjetil Storesletten Timestamps: (00:00:00) – Intro (00:03:10) – Defining the St. Louis Fed and Bullard’s Fed Tenure (00:09:58) – Comparing FAIT and Nominal GDP Targeting (00:15:55) – Assessing the Current FAIT Framework (00:25:37) – Evaluating the Recent V-Shaped Recovery (00:29:28) – What to Expect from the Upcoming Fed Framework Review (00:33:31) – Improving the FOMC’s Economic Reporting (00:37:46) – The Case for Nominal GDP Targeting (00:50:24) – The Future of R-Star (00:53:52) – Outro
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Josh Lipsky on Financial Statecraft, Cross-border Payments, and the Global Status of the Dollar
07/15/2024
Josh Lipsky on Financial Statecraft, Cross-border Payments, and the Global Status of the Dollar
Josh Lipsky is the senior director of the Atlantic Council’s GeoEconomics Center. Josh joins David on Macro Musings to talk about the tools of financial statecraft, how they have evolved over the years, and their implications for digital currencies moving forward. Specifically, David and Josh also discuss how financial statecraft would be applied to a possible conflict with China, the current state of the cross-border payments system, the future of wholesale CBDC in the US, and much more. Transcript for this week’s Josh’s Twitter: Josh’s Atlantic Council David Beckworth’s Twitter: Follow us on Twitter: Check out our new AI chatbot: the ! Join the new Macro Musings ! Join the Macro Musings Check out our Macro Musings Related Links: by Charlie Vest, Agatha Kratz, Juliana Bouchaud, Josh Lipsky, Kimberly Donovan, Charles Lichfield, and Niels Graham. by Jordan Bleicher and Josh Lipsky by Timothy Massad Timestamps: (00:00:00) – Intro (00:04:02) – The Russia Sanctions as an Example of Financial Statecraft (00:10:14) – The Financing of the Russia-Ukraine War (00:14:08) – The Delicacy of Legal Precedents and the REPO Act (00:19:10) – Breaking Down the Tools of Financial Statecraft (00:22:08) – Applying Financial Statecraft to a Possible China Conflict (00:28:52) – Cross-border Payments and the Global Status of the US Dollar (00:34:05) – Breaking Down the Development and Geopolitical Importance of mBridge (00:38:34) – The Future and Importance of Wholesale CBDC in the US (00:43:28) – Private Sector Alternatives to CBDCs (00:45:05) – Where is the CBDC Conversation Headed? (00:49:25) – Closing Thoughts: The 80th Anniversary of Bretton Woods and the Future of Dollar Dominance (00:52:48) – Outro
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Steven Kelly on the Financial Stability Implications of the Discount Window
07/08/2024
Steven Kelly on the Financial Stability Implications of the Discount Window
Steven Kelly is the Associate Director of Research at the Yale Program on Financial Stability and is also a returning guest to the podcast. Steven rejoins David on Macro Musings to talk about the financial stability implications of the discount window. David and Steven also discuss the issues with FHLBs, how to fix the challenge of reporting requirements, restarting the term auction facility and committed liquidity facilities, and much more. Transcript for this week’s Steven’s Twitter: Steven’s blog: David Beckworth’s Twitter: Follow us on Twitter: Check out our new AI chatbot: the ! Join the new Macro Musings ! Join the Macro Musings Check out our Macro Musings Related Links: - a panel discussion featuring Steven Kelly, Bill Nelson, Susan McLaughlin, and Luc Laeven at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s 2024 Financial Markets Conference by Steven Kelly - an initiative by the Yale Program on Financial Stability by Bill Nelson Timestamps: (00:00:00) – Intro (00:01:02) – The Yale Program on Financial Stability and Steven’s Role (00:07:04) – Building a Resilient Regulatory Framework (00:12:45) – Addressing Issues in the Discount Window (00:21:37) – Responding to Criticism of Liquidity Regulations (00:27:22) – Fixing the Challenge of Reporting Requirements (00:33:29) – Restarting the Term Auction Facility and Committed Liquidity Facilities (00:37:24) – Addressing the Issue with FHLBs (00:45:26) – Additional Thoughts from the Atlanta Fed Conference Panel (00:50:59) – Could Increased Use of the Discount Window Cause a Shift in the Fed’s Operating System? (00:54:44) – Outro
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Ernie Tedeschi on Full Employment, the US Safe Harbor Premium, and the Current Path of R-Star
07/01/2024
Ernie Tedeschi on Full Employment, the US Safe Harbor Premium, and the Current Path of R-Star
Ernie Tedeschi is the Director of Economics at the Budget Lab and is a visiting fellow at the Psaros Center for Financial Markets and Policy. Recently, Ernie was a chief economist at the White House’s Council of Economic Advisors, and he is also a returning guest to the podcast. Ernie rejoins Macro Musings to talk about the CEA and some of his recent work on the political risks to the US safe harbor premium and R-star. David and Ernie also discuss the benefits and healing properties of a high employment economy, Ernie’s favorite measures of the labor market, the current and past trends in the path of R-Star, and more. Transcript for this week’s Ernie’s Twitter: Ernie’s Budget Lab David Beckworth’s Twitter: Follow us on Twitter: Check out our new AI chatbot: the ! Join the new Macro Musings ! Join the Macro Musings Check out our Macro Musings Related Links: by Ernie Tedeschi by Ernie Tedeschi by the White House Council of Economic Advisers by Nick Timiraos by Craig Torres Timestamps: (00:00:00) – Intro (00:01:49) – Ernie’s Experience at the CEA (00:09:15) – The Benefits and Healing Properties of a High Employment Economy (00:15:28) – Ernie’s Favorite Measures of the Labor Market (00:20:17) – The Broader Debate Surrounding Labor Market Measures (00:24:07) – The Basics of a US Safe Harbor Premium (00:28:56) – Political Risk vs. Exorbitant Privilege (00:33:46) – Debt Ceiling Crises as a Political Risk Scenario (00:37:01) – Fiscal Dominance as a Political Risk Scenario (00:43:25) – Outlining the Distinction Between Different R-Stars (00:48:39) – Past and Current Trends in the Path of R-Stars (00:54:46) – Assessing the Sources of High Productivity (00:58:22) – Outro
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Jeffrey Lacker on Fed Governance and Learning from the Recent Inflation Surge
06/24/2024
Jeffrey Lacker on Fed Governance and Learning from the Recent Inflation Surge
Jeffrey Lacker is a senior affiliated scholar at the Mercatus Center, but has also previously worked at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond from 1989 to 2017, serving as its president from 2004 to 2017. Jeff is also a returning guest to podcast, and he rejoins Macro Musings to talk about Fed governance issues and the lessons learned from the recent inflation surge. Specifically, David and Jeffrey also discuss the issue of maximum employment, how the Fed could reform its governance structure, what the central bank should address during the next framework review, and more. Transcript for this week’s Jeffrey’s Mercatus Jeffrey’s Jeffrey’s Richmond Fed David Beckworth’s Twitter: Follow us on Twitter: Check out our new AI chatbot: the ! Join the new Macro Musings ! Join the Macro Musings Check out our Macro Musings Related Links: by Jeffrey Lacker Presentation by Jeffrey Lacker at the 2024 UC San Diego Economics Roundtable Lecture Series by Andrew Levin and Christina Parajon Skinner by Dan Katz and Stephen Miran by Michael Belongia and Peter Ireland by Peter Conti-Brown by Macro Musings Timestamps: (00:00:00) – Intro (00:04:35) – Jeffrey’s View on “Monetary Federalism” (00:10:01) – Reducing the Number of Regional Fed Banks (00:13:11) – Addressing Peter Conti-Brown’s Proposals for Fed Governance Reform (00:18:23) – Addressing Andy Levin and Christina Skinner’s Proposals for Fed Governance Reform (00:23:07) – Altering the Fed’s Responsibilities as a Bank Regulator (00:29:21) – What Lessons Should the Federal Reserve Learn from the Recent Inflation Surge? (00:36:14) – The Issue of Maximum Employment (00:46:38) – Evaluating the Fed’s Response to the Recent Inflation Episode (00:50:45) – What Should the Fed Be Addressing During the Next Framework Review? (00:55:01) – Outro
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Mickey Levy on How to Reboot Fed Policy Ahead of its Upcoming Framework Review
06/17/2024
Mickey Levy on How to Reboot Fed Policy Ahead of its Upcoming Framework Review
Mickey Levy is Chief Economist for the Americas and Asia for Berenberg Capital Markets, a Wall Street veteran, and a longstanding member of the Shadow Open Market Committee. He and his co-author, Charles Plosser, also have a new paper out titled, *The Fed’s Strategic Approach to Monetary Policy Needs a Reboot.* Mickey joins David on Macro Musings to discuss this paper and its implications for the upcoming Federal Reserve framework review. David and Mickey also discuss the impact and importance of a flat Phillips curve, the Fed’s policy mistakes in the wake of its new flexible average inflation targeting (FAIT) framework, recommendations for how the central bank should approach the next framework review, and much more. Transcript for this week’s Mickey’s Twitter: Mickey’s David Beckworth’s Twitter: Follow us on Twitter: Check out our new AI chatbot: the ! Join the new Macro Musings ! Join the Macro Musings Check out our Macro Musings Related Links: by Mickey Levy and Charles Plosser Timestamps: (00:00:00) – Intro (00:01:50) – Mickey Levy’s Career Path and Takeaways from the Most Recent Hoover Monetary Policy Conference (00:07:24) – What Shaped the First Framework Review? (00:11:56) – The Fed’s Addition of “Symmetric” Inflation (00:16:32) – Price Level Drift, Deflationary Fears, and Inflation Expectations at the Fed (00:23:33) – The Impact and Importance of a Flat Phillips Curve (00:27:34) – Breaking Down the Elements of FAIT and the Fed’s Policy Mistakes (00:42:11) – Recommendations for the Fed’s Upcoming Framework Review (00:57:54) – Outro
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Lars Christensen on AI and its Impact on Monetary Policy and the Broader Field of Economics
06/10/2024
Lars Christensen on AI and its Impact on Monetary Policy and the Broader Field of Economics
Lars Christensen is a founding member of the market monetarist tradition, an entrepreneur in the AI space, and is also a returning guest to Macro Musings. Lars rejoins the podcast to talk about AI and its implications for the economy and for monetary policy. David and Lars also discuss the basics and implications of dynamic pricing, AI’s growing use within econometric analysis, how AI will impact the Fed and its policymaking, and much more. Transcript for this week’s Lars’s Twitter: Lars’s David Beckworth’s Twitter: Follow us on Twitter: Check out our new AI chatbot: the ! Join the new Macro Musings ! Join the Macro Musings Check out our Macro Musings Related Links: by Lars Christensen by George Selgin Timestamps: (00:00:00) – Intro (00:01:16) – Lars’s Move from Macro to AI (00:08:02) – The Basics and Implications of Dynamic Pricing (00:16:17) – Using AI for Econometric Analysis (00:23:54) – The Implications of AI for the Economics Field (00:35:45) – How Will AI Impact the Federal Reserve and its Policymaking (00:38:55) – Deflation as a Response to an AI Driven Productivity Shock (00:52:08) – Outro Photo Credit: Nordnet Bank
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Ryan Bourne on *The War on Prices: How Popular Misconceptions about Inflation, Prices, and Value Create Bad Policy*
06/03/2024
Ryan Bourne on *The War on Prices: How Popular Misconceptions about Inflation, Prices, and Value Create Bad Policy*
Ryan Bourne is the R. Evan Scharf Chair for Public Understanding of Economic at the Cato Institute, and he is also the editor and contributor to a new book titled, *The War on Prices: How Popular Misconceptions about Inflation, Prices, and Value Create Bad Policy.* Ryan joins Macro Musings to talk about this new book, and specifically, the history and functionality of rent and price controls, the basics of dynamic pricing, the root causes of inflation, and a lot more. Transcript for this week’s Ryan’s Twitter: Ryan’s Cato David Beckworth’s Twitter: Follow us on Twitter: Check out our new AI chatbot: the ! Join the new Macro Musings ! Join the Macro Musings Check out our Macro Musings Related Links: by Ryan Bourne et al. by Leonard Read by Robert Schuettinger and Eamonn Butler by Carola Binder Timestamps: (00:00:00) – Intro (00:01:05) – The Background Motivation for “The War on Prices* (00:06:32) – The Definition and Importance of Prices (00:12:41) – The Parable of “I, Pencil” (00:18:39) – Rationing on Quality or Quantity: Rent Control (00:26:39) – The World War II Experience with Price Controls (00:32:58) – Price and Wage Controls During the Nixon Administration (00:35:48) – The Effects of a Minimum Wage (00:38:38) – The Basics of Dynamic Pricing (00:44:03) – Defining Inflation and Establishing its Sources (00:56:08) – Was the Recent Inflation Surge Actually Optimal? (00:59:51) – Outro
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George Selgin on Fed Master Accounts, Central Bank Independence, and the Fed’s Balance Sheet
05/27/2024
George Selgin on Fed Master Accounts, Central Bank Independence, and the Fed’s Balance Sheet
George Selgin is a senior fellow and director emeritus of the Center for Monetary and Financial Alternatives at the Cato Institute. George is also a frequent guest of the podcast, and he rejoins Macro Musings to talk about some of the recent developments in the monetary and fiscal policy space. Specifically, David and George discuss recent updates regarding Fed master accounts, the problematic aspects of the Fed’s balance sheet, why a second Trump term would threaten central bank independence, and much more. Transcript for this week’s George’s Twitter: George’s Cato David Beckworth’s Twitter: Follow us on Twitter: Check out our new AI chatbot: the ! Join the new Macro Musings ! Join the Macro Musings Check out our Macro Musings Related Links: by George Selgin Court documents from the Wyoming District Court by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York by Andrew Restuccia, Nick Timiraos, and Alex Leary by Saleha Mohsin, Jennfier Jacobs, and Nancy Cook by George Selgin by George Selgin by Macro Musings Timestamps: (00:01:36) – Intro (00:06:26) – Updates on Fed Master Accounts and the Custodia Case (00:17:57) – Problematic Aspects of the Fed’s Balance Sheet (00:22:50) – The Importance of the Overnight Unsecured Interbank Lending Market (00:34:26) – Responding to the Jared Bernstein Incident (00:46:33) – Donald Trump, Central Bank Independence, and Dollar Dominance (00:56:54) – Outro
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Roberto Perli on the Past, Present, and Future of the Fed’s Balance Sheet
05/20/2024
Roberto Perli on the Past, Present, and Future of the Fed’s Balance Sheet
Roberto Perli is the manager of the System Open Market Account (SOMA) and a senior leader in the New York Fed’s Markets Group. In his role, Roberto is responsible for implementing monetary policy at the direction of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Roberto is also a returning guest to the podcast, and he rejoins Macro Musings to talk about a recent speech he made titled, *Balance Sheet Reduction: Progress to Date and a Look Ahead.* Specifically, David and Roberto discuss the Fed’s recent balance sheet activities, the basics and functionality of the overnight reverse repo facility, the importance of slowing down the Fed’s balance sheet runoff, and much more. Transcript for this week’s Roberto’s NY Fed Roberto’s Twitter: David Beckworth’s Twitter: Follow us on Twitter: Check out our new AI chatbot: the ! Join the new Macro Musings ! Join the Macro Musings Check out our Macro Musings Related Links: - Remarks by Roberto Perli at the 2024 Annual Primary Dealer Meeting, Federal Reserve Bank of New York Timestamps: (00:00:00) – Intro (00:04:49) – Breaking Down the Role of SOMA Manager (00:08:43) – Recapping the Fed’s Balance Sheet Activities (00:11:04) – How to Think About Quantitative Tightening (00:13:19) – Breaking Down the Overnight Reverse Repo Facility (00:20:42) – Slowing Down the Runoff and the Future of QT (00:26:48) – How to Determine the Critical Level of Reserves (00:33:03) – The Structural Demand for Bank Reserves Over Time (00:38:55) – The Advantages of the Floor Operating System (00:47:49) – Reserve Supply Focus Moving Forward (00:49:44) – Outro
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Mary Daly on Fed Policy, the Economic Impacts of AI, and the Future of the Fed’s Framework
05/13/2024
Mary Daly on Fed Policy, the Economic Impacts of AI, and the Future of the Fed’s Framework
Mary Daly is the president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), and is also a 28-year veteran of the Federal Reserve System. President Daly joins David for this special live episode of Macro Musings to talk about her non-linear career path to the world of monetary policy, the long-term economic impacts of AI, the future outlook for Fed policy and the Fed’s framework, and much more. Transcript for this week’s Mary’s Twitter: Mary’s San Francisco Fed David Beckworth’s Twitter: Follow us on Twitter: Check out our new AI chatbot: the ! Join the new Macro Musings ! Join the Macro Musings Check out our Macro Musings Related Links: by David Beckworth Timestamps: (00:00:00) – Intro (00:01:30) – Mary Daly’s Background (00:06:09) – Recent Inflationary Trends and the Future of Fed Policy (00:15:39) – The Trajectory of R-Star Over the Medium to Long-Run (00:19:06) – The Long-Term Economic Impacts of AI (00:29:51) – Expectations for the Upcoming Fed Framework Review (00:33:35) – Prospects for Nominal GDP Targeting at the Fed (00:36:58) – Fed Policymaking During an Election Year (00:38:16) – Audience Q&A Period (01:01:09) – Outro
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Dan Katz and Stephen Miran on Reforming the Federal Reserve’s Governance
05/06/2024
Dan Katz and Stephen Miran on Reforming the Federal Reserve’s Governance
Dan Katz and Stephen Miran are former senior advisors for the US Treasury Department and are currently adjunct fellows at the Manhattan Institute. Dan and Stephen have also written a new paper titled, *Reform the Federal Reserve’s Governance to Deliver Better Monetary Outcomes,* and they join Macro Musings to talk about this paper and the proposed reforms for the Federal Reserve outlined in it. Specifically, Dan, Steve, and David discuss the ever-expanding reach of the Fed, its role as debt manager and bank regulator, the current issue with the central bank’s personnel, and a lot more. Transcript for this week’s Stephen’s Twitter: Stephen’s Manhattan Institute Dan’s Twitter: Dan’s Manhattan Institute David Beckworth’s Twitter: Follow us on Twitter: Check out our new AI chatbot: the ! Join the new Macro Musings ! Join the Macro Musings Check out our Macro Musings Related Links: by Dan Katz and Stephen Miran Timestamps: (00:00:00) – Intro (00:04:20) – The Fed’s Issue of Picking Winners and Losers (00:09:17) – The Fed’s Role as Bank Regulator (00:12:53) – The Ever-Expanding Reach of the Fed (00:17:50) – The Fed as a Debt Manager (00:23:33) – What Should the Fed Do in a Zero Lower Bound Environment (00:27:26) – Personnel is Policy: The Issue with Fed Personnel (00:29:55) – Options for Personnel Reform at the Fed (00:38:22) – Making the Fed President Selection Process More Robust (00:47:28) – The Nature of Debate at the Fed (00:50:53) – The Scope for Change at the Fed (00:53:21) – Outro
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BONUS: Richard Clarida on His Musical Interests and *Time No Changes*
05/01/2024
BONUS: Richard Clarida on His Musical Interests and *Time No Changes*
Richard Clarida is a professor of economics at Columbia University, a managing director at PIMCO, and was most recently the Vice Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Richard rejoins David for this special bonus segment to talk about his interest in music and his first studio album, *Time No Changes.* Richard’s Federal Reserve Richard’s PIMCO David Beckworth’s Twitter: Follow us on Twitter: Check out our new AI chatbot: the ! Join the new Macro Musings ! Join the Macro Musings ! Check out our Macro Musings Related Links: by Richard Clarida by Macro Musings
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