Macro Musings with David Beckworth
Hosted by David Beckworth of the Mercatus Center, Macro Musings pulls back the curtain on the important macroeconomic issues of the past, present, and future.
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Skanda Amarnath on the Future of the Federal Reserve and it’s Framework
05/05/2025
Skanda Amarnath on the Future of the Federal Reserve and it’s Framework
Skanda Amarnath is the executive director of Employ America. Skanda returns to the show to discuss the standing of Humphrey’s Executor, the prospects for the Fed’s Framework Review, the case for NGDP Targeting, and much more. Check out the for this week’s episode, now with links. Recorded on April 16th, 2025 Subscribe to David's Substack: Follow David Beckworth on X: Follow the show on X: Follow Skanda on X: Check out our new AI chatbot: the ! Join the new Macro Musings ! Join the Macro Musings Check out our Macro Musings to David's new BTS YouTube Channel Timestamps: (00:00:00) – Intro (00:02:01) – Humphrey’s Executor (00:12:35) – The Fed’s Framework Review (00:37:18) – Fed’s Communication (00:47:36) – Productivity (00:59:07) – Outro
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Andy Levin on Holding the Fed Accountable
04/28/2025
Andy Levin on Holding the Fed Accountable
Andy Levin is a professor of economics at Dartmouth College and longtime advisor to many central banks. Andy returns to the show to discuss his policy brief on holding the Fed accountable for its spending practices. Check out the for this week’s episode, now with links. Recorded on April 9th, 2025 Subscribe to David's Substack: Follow David Beckworth on X: Follow the show on X: Check out our new AI chatbot: the ! Join the new Macro Musings ! Join the Macro Musings Check out our Macro Musings to David's new BTS YouTube Channel Timestamps: (00:00:00) – Intro (00:00:50) – Andy’s Professional Background (00:02:07) – Overstaffed or Overworked? (00:04:09) – The Fed’s Extraordinary Independence (00:10:10) – Inspector Generals and the Fed (00:20:33) – The Fed’s Workers and Payroll (00:37:35) – Updates to the Fed’s Headquarters (00:48:24) – Other Fed Challenges (00:56:26) – How to Improve the Fed (00:58:24) – Outro
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Kathryn Judge on the Importance of Emergency Lending Facilities at the Federal Reserve
04/21/2025
Kathryn Judge on the Importance of Emergency Lending Facilities at the Federal Reserve
Kathryn Judge is a law professor at Columbia University and a legal scholar of the Federal Reserve and financial policy. Kathryn returns to the show to discuss the Fed’s Emergency Lending Facilities, or 13(3) and current happenings at the Federal Reserve. Check out the for this week’s episode, now with links. Recorded on March 27th, 2025 Subscribe to David's Substack: Follow David Beckworth on X: Follow Kathryn Judge on X: Follow the show on X: Check out our new AI chatbot: the ! Join the new Macro Musings ! Join the Macro Musings Check out our Macro Musings to David's new BTS YouTube Channel Timestamps: (00:00:00) – Intro (00:01:43) – History of Section 13(3) (00:03:55) – Increasing Use of 13(3) (00:06:55) – Unusual and Exigent Circumstances (00:08:53) – Changes to 13(3) (00:13:17) – Classification of the Facilities (00:21:13) – Should the Fed Be Doing Emergency Lending? (00:25:42) – Feature or Bug? (00:33:19) – Fed Independence (00:47:45) – Regionalism of the Fed (00:55:23) – Outro
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Paul Blustein on the Rise, Dominance, and Current Challenges to King Dollar
04/14/2025
Paul Blustein on the Rise, Dominance, and Current Challenges to King Dollar
Paul Blustein is a former Washington Post and Wall Street Journal journalist who has authored several acclaimed books on global economic institutions. In Paul’s first appearance on the show, he discusses the historical rise of the dollar, it’s present-day power, how it compares to other global currencies, current challenges to its power, the rise of crypto, and much more. Check out the for this week’s episode, now with links. Recorded on March 26th, 2025 Subscribe to David's Substack: Follow David Beckworth on X: Follow Paul Blustein on X: Follow the show on X: Check out our new AI chatbot: the ! Join the new Macro Musings ! Join the Macro Musings Check out our Macro Musings to David's new BTS YouTube Channel Timestamps: (00:00:00) – Intro (00:00:52) – Paul’s Books (00:05:08) – Motivations for King Dollar (00:09:02) – History of the Dollar (00:12:57) – Nixon Shock of 1971 (00:23:36) – Paul Volcker (00:33:14) – Dollar Dominance and Statecraft (00:40:46) – What About the Euro? (00:44:42) – Cryptocurrency as a Rival to the Dollar (00:47:54) – Drawbacks of Dollar Dominance (00:57:03) – Outro
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Bill Nelson on the Future of Central Bank Operating Systems
04/07/2025
Bill Nelson on the Future of Central Bank Operating Systems
Bill Nelson is a Chief economist and an executive vice president at the Bank Policy Institute. Bill returns to the show to discuss the changes at many central banks around the world from a supply-driven floor system to a demand-driven floor system and how the Fed has been resistant to this change. Check out the for this week’s episode, now with links. Recorded on March 6th, 2025 Subscribe to David's Substack: Follow David Beckworth on X: Follow the show on X: Check out our new AI chatbot: the ! Join the new Macro Musings ! Join the Macro Musings Check out our Macro Musings to David's new BTS YouTube Channel Timestamps: (00:00:00) – Intro (00:01:35) – Trend Toward a Demand-Driven Ceiling System (00:07:32) – Will the Fed Follow Suit? (00:13:11) – Bank of England’s New Policy Implementation Framework (00:21:33) – Bill’s Suggestions for the Fed’s Implementation Framework (00:39:18) – Responding to Lorie’s Case for the Floor System (00:59:11) – Outro
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Scott Lincicome on the Trump Trade War
03/31/2025
Scott Lincicome on the Trump Trade War
Subscribe to David's Substack: Scott Lincicome is the vice president of general economics and trade at Cato. Scott returns to the program to discuss the past, present, and future of Trump’s trade war, the impact of tariffs on the US consumer, myths about globalization, the state of globalization worldwide, and much more. Check out the for this week’s episode, now with links. Recorded on March 19th, 2025 Follow David Beckworth on X: Follow Scott Lincicome on X: Follow the show on X: Check out our new AI chatbot: the ! Join the new Macro Musings ! Join the Macro Musings Check out our Macro Musings to David's new BTS YouTube Channel Timestamps: (00:00:00) – Intro (00:01:01) – Cato’s Trade Center (00:04:06) – Current State of Trump’s Trade War (00:14:09) – Trade War Strategy (00:20:48) – Break in the Globalization Trend (00:29:51) – Bilateral Trade Deficit View (00:54:01) – Comparative Advantage (01:00:30) – How to Support Free Trade (001:01:44) – Outro
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Lyman Stone on Demographic and Marriage Decline
03/24/2025
Lyman Stone on Demographic and Marriage Decline
Sign up for David's Substack: Lyman Stone is a demographer and the director of the Pronatalism Initiative at the Institute for Family Studies. In Lyman’s first appearance on the show, he discusses demographic and marriage decline, the fallacy in the thinking of degrowthers, the benefits of pronatalist policy, and much more. Check out the for this week’s episode, now with links. Recorded on February 13th, 2025 Follow David Beckworth on X: Follow Lyman Stone on X: Follow the show on X: Check out our new AI chatbot: the ! Join the new Macro Musings ! Join the Macro Musings Check out our Macro Musings to David's new BTS YouTube Channel Timestamps: (00:00:00) – Intro (00:02:04) – Lyman Stone’s Career Path (00:04:54) – Demography as a Discipline (00:10:41) – Demographic Decline (00:15:28) – Decline of Marriage (00:32:24) – Degrowthers (00:43:15) – Possible Policy Solutions (00:54:50) – Outro
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Athanasios Orphanides on Real-Time Monetary Rules and their Impact on the Fed’s Framework Review
03/17/2025
Athanasios Orphanides on Real-Time Monetary Rules and their Impact on the Fed’s Framework Review
Sign up for David's Substack: Athanasios Orphanides is a professor at MIT, formerly served at the Federal Reverse for 15 years, and was the Governor of the Central Bank of Cyprus. In Athanasios’s first appearance of show he discussed real-time monetary policy rules, their implication on the Fed’s framework review, his natural growth target, and much more. Check out the for this week’s episode, now with links. Recorded on February 18th, 2025 Follow David Beckworth on X: Follow the show on X: Check out our new AI chatbot: the ! Join the new Macro Musings ! Join the Macro Musings Check out our Macro Musings to David's new BTS YouTube Channel Timestamps: (00:00:00) – Substack Announcement (00:00:49) – Intro (00:02:24) – Athanasios’ Career Journey (00:06:08) – Real-Time Policy Rules (00:23:36) – Potential Drawbacks of Monetary Rules (00:28:46) – Natural Growth Targeting Rule (00:37:31) – Federal Reserve’s Framework Review (00:57:02) – Outro
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Dean Ball on the Past, Present, and Future of AI
03/10/2025
Dean Ball on the Past, Present, and Future of AI
Dean Ball is a research fellow at the Mercatus Center. In Dean’s first appearance on the show, he explains the AI revolution, current AI developments, policy implications of the AI boom, and the future of AI. Check out the for this week’s episode, now with links. Recorded on February 19th, 2025 Follow David Beckworth on X: Follow the show on X: Follow Dean on X: Check out our new AI chatbot: the ! Join the new Macro Musings ! Join the Macro Musings Check out our Macro Musings to David's new BTS YouTube Channel Timestamps: (00:00:00) – Intro (00:01:03) – Dean’s Background in Artificial Intelligence (00:03:32) – Recent AI Events (00:22:03) – Policy Implications (00:33:58) – AI and the Future (00:56:34) – Outro
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Liya Palagashvili on the Gig Economy, Portable Benefits, and Changing Labor Regulations
03/03/2025
Liya Palagashvili on the Gig Economy, Portable Benefits, and Changing Labor Regulations
Liya Palagashvili is a senior research fellow and director of the Labor Policy Project at the Mercatus Center. In Liya’s first appearance on the show she explains federal and state level changes to labor regulations, who makes up the gig economy workforce, the role women play in the independent workforce, the novel concept of portable benefits, and much more. Check out the for this week’s episode, now with links. Recorded on January 31st, 2025 Follow David Beckworth on X: Follow the show on X: Follow Liya on X: Check out our new AI chatbot: the ! Join the new Macro Musings ! Join the Macro Musings Check out our Macro Musings to David's new BTS YouTube Channel Timestamps: (00:00:00) – Intro (00:01:37) – Liya’s Background and Interest in Labor Economics (00:03:18) – Labor Policy Project and Labor Market Matters (00:07:32) –Independent Contractors and the Gig Economy (00:17:20) – Independent Work as a Buffer from Shocks (00:23:40) – Women and Independent Work (00:31:01) – Men in the Independent Workforce (00:35:23) – Myths Surrounding the Gig Economy (00:39:36) – Portable Benefits for Independent Workers (00:49:48) – Port Strikes and Dynamic Labor Markets (01:02:36) – Outro
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Evan Koenig on the Case for Nominal GDP Targeting
02/24/2025
Evan Koenig on the Case for Nominal GDP Targeting
Evan Koenig is a former senior aide to the president of the Dallas Fed. Evan returns to the show to discuss, the ins and outs of nominal GDP targeting, the practical applications of NGDP targeting, the reasons the Fed should consider it for the framework review, and much more. Check out the for this week’s episode, now with links. Recorded on October 29th, 2024 Follow David Beckworth on X: Follow the show on X: Check out our new AI chatbot: the ! Join the new Macro Musings ! Join the Macro Musings Check out our Macro Musings to David's new BTS YouTube Channel Timestamps: (00:00:00) – Intro (00:01:06) – Evan Koenig at the Fed (00:02:04) – Nominal GDP Targeting (00:06:22) – Why the Fed Didn’t Consider Nominal GDP Targeting (00:17:25) – How to Explain Nominal GDP Targeting to the Public (00:23:10) – Main Arguments for Nominal GDP Targeting (00:33:52) – Practical Applications of Nominal GDP (00:47:19) – Nominal GDP Targeting and the Fed’s Upcoming Framework Review (00:50:57) – Outro
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Steven Kelly on the Challenges of Treasury Equity Funding for 13(3) Facilities
02/17/2025
Steven Kelly on the Challenges of Treasury Equity Funding for 13(3) Facilities
Steven Kelly is the associate director of research as the Yale Program on Financial Stability. Steven returns to the show to discuss his new model, the Treasury Equity Model of the Federal Reserve’s emergency lending. Check out the for this week’s episode, now with links. Recorded on January 23rd, 2025 Follow David Beckworth on X: Follow Steven Kelly: Follow the show on X: Check out our new AI chatbot: the ! Join the new Macro Musings ! Join the Macro Musings Check out our Macro Musings to David's new BTS YouTube Channel Timestamps: (00:00:00) – Intro (00:00:47) – The Discount Window and Its Current Momentum (00:03:22) – Evaluating the Treasury-Equity Model of Fed Emergency Lending (00:07:33) – The Fed’s Section 13(3) Facilities (00:12:54) – Creation of Section 13(3) (00:16:46) – Currency Swap Lines (00:18:36) – Beginnings of the Treasury-Equity Model (00:28:16) – Treasury-Equity Model During COVID-19 Pandemic (00:40:12) – Banking Turmoil of 2023 (00:46:15) – Advice for the Fed (00:47:50) – Outro
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Senator Pat Toomey on Fed Governance, Monetary Policy, and the future of Digital Assets
02/10/2025
Senator Pat Toomey on Fed Governance, Monetary Policy, and the future of Digital Assets
Pat Toomey is a former senator from the state of Pennsylvania and served on the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs. In Pat’s first appearance on the show he discussed his career in public service, Fed master accounts, the future on monetary policy, his quest for Fed accountability, the looming debt issue, and much more. Check out the for this week’s episode, now with links. Recorded on January 23rd, 2025 Follow David Beckworth on X: Follow Pat Toomey: Follow the show on X: Check out our new AI chatbot: the ! Join the new Macro Musings ! Join the Macro Musings Check out our Macro Musings to David's new BTS YouTube Channel Timestamps: (00:00:00) – Intro (00:01:09) – Senator Toomey’s Committee Work (00:21:21) – Federal Reserve Master Accounts (00:27:07) – Accountability of the Fed (00:30:07) – Monetary Policy (00:45:19) – Debts, Deficits, and Fiscal Policy (00:57:22) – Outro
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Brian Albrecht on Business Dynamism, Greedflation, and Antitrust
02/03/2025
Brian Albrecht on Business Dynamism, Greedflation, and Antitrust
Brian Albrecht is the chief economist for the International Center for Law & Economics and is the coauthor of the economics newsletter Economic Forces. In Brian’s first appearance on the show, he discussed the data behind business dynamism, the notion of greedflation, the recent developments in antitrust, the update Econ 101 needs to make in regard to tariffs, and much more. Check out the for this week’s episode, now with links. Recorded on January 6th, 2025 Follow David Beckworth on X: Follow Brian Albrecht: Follow the show on X: Check out our new AI chatbot: the ! Join the new Macro Musings ! Join the Macro Musings Check out our Macro Musings to David's new BTS YouTube Channel Timestamps: (00:00:00) – Intro (00:00:51) – Brian’s Education and Career (00:08:03) – Market Structure and Business Dynamism (00:31:07) – Greedflation (00:45:25) – Trump and Tariffs (00:55:51) – Outro
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The Fed Framework Review: Macro Musings’ Greatest NGDP Targeting Hits
01/27/2025
The Fed Framework Review: Macro Musings’ Greatest NGDP Targeting Hits
On this special greatest hits compilation episode our host David Beckworth primes listeners for the Fed Framework Review by highlighting the best snippets from past shows discussing nominal GDP targeting. This episode includes Mary Daly’s thoughts on NGDP targeting, Evan Koenig on the basics of NGDP targeting, George Selgin on Powell’s hesitations with NGDP targeting and how it responds to supply shocks, Jim Bullard on the financial stability of NGDP targeting, Eric Sims on the New Keynesian argument for NGDP targeting, Carola Binder on the benefits of NGDP targeting, Charlie Evans on the prospects of NGDP target, and much more. Check out the for this week’s episode, now with links. Follow David Beckworth on X: Follow the show on X: Check out our new AI chatbot: the ! Join the new Macro Musings ! Join the Macro Musings Check out our Macro Musings to David's new BTS YouTube Channel Timestamps: (00:00:00) – Intro (00:02:31) – Mary Daly on Nominal GDP Targeting Considerations for the 2024-25 Fed Framework Review (00:06:13) – Evan Koenig on the Basics and Preferred Structure of a Nominal GDP Targeting Framework (00:14:17) – George Selgin on Chair Powell’s Concerns About Nominal GDP Targeting (00:21:35) – Jim Bullard on the Financial Stability Argument for Nominal GDP Targeting (00:24:12) – Eric Sims on the New Keynesian Rationale for Nominal GDP Targeting (00:28:23) – Carola Binder on Two Major Benefits of Nominal GDP Targeting (00:33:40) – George Selgin on How Nominal GDP Targeting Would Handle Supply Shocks (00:46:55) – Charlie Evans on the Prospects for Nominal GDP Targeting During the 2024-25 Fed Framework Review (00:50:57) – Bonus Segment: Enhancing the Nominal GDP Targeting Framework (00:53:08) – Gauti Eggertsson on the Merits of a Cumulative Nominal GDP Level Target (00:55:50) – Scott Sumner on Targeting a Nominal GDP Futures Contract (01:04:25) – Outro
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Peter Conti-Brown on the Fed under Trump 2.0, Reforming the Discount Window, and Providential Moments
01/20/2025
Peter Conti-Brown on the Fed under Trump 2.0, Reforming the Discount Window, and Providential Moments
Peter Conti-Brown is a historian and legal scholar of the Federal Reserve System and an associate professor at the Wharton School of Business at the University of Pennsylvania. Peter returns to the podcast to discuss the state of Federal Reserve leadership under the incoming Trump administration, expectations for Fed independence, a new proposal for limiting stigma at the discount window, stories about a life lead by faith, and much more. Check out the for this week’s episode, now with links. Recorded on January 10th, 2025 Follow David Beckworth on X: Follow Peter Conti-Brown on BlueSky: Follow the show on X: Check out our new AI chatbot: the ! Join the new Macro Musings ! Join the Macro Musings Check out our Macro Musings to David's new BTS YouTube Channel Timestamps: (00:00:00) – Intro (00:01:23) – Reaching Audiences Through Various Forms of Media (00:10:30) – Federal Reserve Under Trump 2.0 (00:21:33) – Jerome Powell (00:25:56) – Michael Barr (00:34:52) – New Discount Window Proposal (00:40:27) – Faith Life (00:56:28) – Radical Uncertainty (01:00:15) – Outro
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David Bahnsen on the Incoming Trump Administration and the Financialization of the US Economy
01/13/2025
David Bahnsen on the Incoming Trump Administration and the Financialization of the US Economy
David Bahnsen is a Wall Street veteran and currently is the managing director of The Bahnsen Group. In David’s first appearance on the podcast, he talks through multiple questions about the incoming Trump Administration, the problem with the growing indebtedness of the US government, shifts in the Republican party, the notion of financialization of the US economy, and much more. Check out the for this week’s episode, now with links. Follow David Beckworth on X: Follow David Bahnsen on X: Follow the show on X: Check out our new AI chatbot: the ! Join the new Macro Musings ! Join the Macro Musings Check out our Macro Musings to David's new BTS YouTube Channel Timestamps: (00:00:00) – Intro (00:01:50) – David Bahnsen’s Career Path (00:04:39) – Shifts in the Republican Party (00:12:20) – Trump Administration 2.0 and Growth, the Fed, and the Financial Sector? (00:33:38) – Financialization and Missed Boats (00:54:02) – Outro
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Marijn Bolhuis on Fiscal R-star and its Implications for Macroeconomic Policy
01/06/2025
Marijn Bolhuis on Fiscal R-star and its Implications for Macroeconomic Policy
Marijn Bolhuis is an economist in the World Economic Studies Division of the IMF’s research department. In Marijn’s first appearance on the podcast he discusses his new paper, which introduces the idea of a fiscal r-star, and expands on another paper which helps economists understand why consumer sentiment is so depressed, despite relatively low unemployment and inflation coming back to target. Check out the for this week’s episode, now with links. Follow David on X: Follow Marijn on X: Follow the show on X: Check out our new AI chatbot: the ! Join the new Macro Musings ! Join the Macro Musings Check out our Macro Musings to David's new BTS YouTube Channel Timestamps: (00:00:00) – Intro (00:01:38) – Marijn Bolhuis’ Career Path (00:06:02) – Fiscal R-Star (00:45:30) – Cost of Money and Consumer Sentiment (00:51:43) – Outro
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Macro Musings 2024 Retrospective
12/30/2024
Macro Musings 2024 Retrospective
David Beckworth and producer Sam Alburger dive into the last year of Macro Musings. They pick their favorite episodes, discuss how the year 2024 will be remembered in the macroeconomic history, highlight stories about the making of the show, combine David’s love for basketball and economics, and much more. Check out the for this week’s episode, now with links. Follow David on X: Follow the show on X: Check out our new AI chatbot: the ! Join the new Macro Musings ! Join the Macro Musings Check out our Macro Musings to David's new BTS YouTube Channel Timestamps: (00:00:00) – Intro (00:01:18) – Year in Review (00:11:48) – New Macro Musings Content (00:15:13) – NGDP Level Targeting vs. FAIT (00:18:43) – Preparing for Macro Musings Interviews (00:24:23) – Macro Musings and AI (00:26:17) – Looking Back at 2024 in Macroeconomic History (00:30:27) – Combing David’s Love for Economics and Basketball (00:34:34) – Thank You’s (01:00:13) – Outro
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George Selgin on Strategic Bitcoin Reserves, Debanking, and the Fed’s Framework Review
12/23/2024
George Selgin on Strategic Bitcoin Reserves, Debanking, and the Fed’s Framework Review
George Selgin is a senior fellow and director emeritus of the Center for Monetary and Financial Alternatives at the Cato Institute. George is also a returning guest to the program, and he rejoins David on Macro Musings to talk about crypto, strategic Bitcoin reserves, and the Fed’s framework review. Specifically, David and George also discuss George’s outlook for a strategic Bitcoin reserve in the US, the significance of the debanking problem, the path to adopting a nominal GDP targeting framework, and much more. Transcript for this week’s George’s Twitter: George’s Cato David Beckworth’s Twitter: Follow us on Twitter: Check out our new AI chatbot: the ! Join the new Macro Musings ! Join the Macro Musings Check out our Macro Musings Related Links: by George Selgin by David Beckworth – A monetary policy conference hosted by the American Institute for Economic Research (AIER) by Rashad Ahmed, Stephen Karolyi, and Leili Pour Rostami by the Bitcoin Policy Institute by Tyler Cowen Timestamps: (00:00:00) – Intro (00:01:34) – Evaluating the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and Digital Gold (00:26:22) – George’s Outlook for the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (00:34:16) – The Significance of the Debanking Problem and the Case of Libra (00:43:18) – *Building a Better Fed Framework*: George’s Takeaways (00:49:16) – The Path to Nominal GDP Targeting: Incremental vs. Radical (00:54:10) – Characterizing a Fed Framework Consensus (01:00:13) – Outro
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Joey Politano on the AI Investment Boom and Trends in Economic Growth
12/16/2024
Joey Politano on the AI Investment Boom and Trends in Economic Growth
Joey Politano is an economist and a commentator who writes a popular Substack newsletter on economics. Joey is also a returning guest to Macro Musings, and he rejoins David to talk about the AI investment boom and broader economic growth trends. Specifically, David and Joey also discuss generational differences in economic perspectives, the increased demand for nuclear energy, the importance of AI in driving scientific research, and much more. Transcript for this week’s Joey’s X: Joey’s Bluesky: Joey’s David Beckworth’s Twitter: Follow us on Twitter: Check out our new AI chatbot: the ! Join the new Macro Musings ! Join the Macro Musings Check out our Macro Musings Related Links: by Joey Politano Timestamps: (00:00:00) – Intro (00:03:09) – The Competition Between X and Bluesky (00:10:55) – The Generational Differences in Economic Perspectives (00:16:23) – Breaking Down the AI Investment Boom (00:23:55) – Have We Left Behind the World of Secular Stagnation? (00:27:47) – Did ChatGPT Kickstart the Next Chapter of Growth? (00:34:35) – AI and Increased Demand for Nuclear Energy (00:39:45) – The Importance of AI in Driving Scientific Research and Growth (00:44:34) – The Current State of Economic Growth (00:53:40) – Outro
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Jeffrey Lacker on the History of Fed Credit Policy and the Four Doctrines of Fed Lending
12/09/2024
Jeffrey Lacker on the History of Fed Credit Policy and the Four Doctrines of Fed Lending
Jeffrey Lacker is a senior affiliated scholar at the Mercatus Center, and he previously worked at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, where he served as its president from 2004 to 2017. Jeff is also a returning guest to the podcast, and he rejoins David on Macro Musings to talk about the history of the Federal Reserve’s credit policy, as well as a recent Shadow Open Market Committee conference. Transcript for this week’s Jeffrey’s Jeffrey’s Mercatus David Beckworth’s Twitter: Follow us on Twitter: Check out our new AI chatbot: the ! Join the new Macro Musings ! Join the Macro Musings Check out our Macro Musings Related Links: — A conference hosted by the Hoover Institution by Jeffrey Lacker by Jeffrey Lacker Timestamps: (00:00:00) – Intro (00:01:47) – The Shadow Open Market Committee and its Contributions Throughout Time (00:05:32) – Highlights from the Recent Shadow Open Market Committee Conference (00:10:17) – From FAIT Back to FIT? (00:14:07) – *Federal Reserve Credit Policy and the Shadow Open Market Committee*: Motivation and Summary (00:16:05) – Breaking Down the Difference Between Credit Policy and Monetary Policy (00:22:10) – The Four Doctrines of Fed Lending: The Monetary Stability Doctrine (00:28:56) – The Four Doctrines of Fed Lending: The Real Bills Doctrine (00:34:49) – The Four Doctrines of Fed Lending: Warburg’s Mercantilism (00:39:11) – The Four Doctrines of Fed Lending: Too-big-to-fail and the Reluctant Samaritan (00:47:45) – Solutions for Improving the System Moving Forward (00:55:25) – Outro
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Zachary Mazlish on the Political Implications of Inflation and the Impact of Transformative AI
12/02/2024
Zachary Mazlish on the Political Implications of Inflation and the Impact of Transformative AI
Zachary Mazlish is an economist at the University of Oxford, and he joins David on Macro Musings to explain some recent and important macroeconomic developments, specifically the inflation linkages to the 2024 presidential election and the macroeconomic implications of transformative AI. David and Zach also discuss transformative AI’s impact on asset pricing, optimal monetary policy in world of high growth, the causes of the slowdown in trend productivity, and more. Transcript for this week’s Zach’s Twitter: Zach’s Zach’s David Beckworth’s Twitter: Follow us on Twitter: Check out our new AI chatbot: the ! Join the new Macro Musings ! Join the Macro Musings Check out our Macro Musings Related Links: by Zachary Mazlish by Trevor Chow, Basil Halperin, and Zachary Mazlish by Basil Halperin and Zachary Mazlish by David Autor, Arin Dube, and Annie McGrew Timestamps: (00:00:00) – Intro (00:04:03) – Inflation Made the Median Voter Poorer: Comparing Periods of Wage Growth (00:15:26) – Inflation Made the Median Voter Poorer: The Median Change in the Wage (00:22:19) – Assessing the Feedback to Zachary’s Article (00:25:05) – The Significance of Transformative AI and its Double-Edged Sword (00:27:02) – The Impact of Transformative AI on Asset Pricing and its Policy Challenges (00:38:07) – The Broader Macroeconomic Effects of Rapid Growth (00:41:05) – Optimal Monetary Policy in a World of High Growth (00:43:19) – Exploring the Causes of the Productivity Slowdown (00:49:21) – Outro
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Ellen Correia Golay on the Keys to Improving Treasury Market Resiliency
11/25/2024
Ellen Correia Golay on the Keys to Improving Treasury Market Resiliency
Ellen Correia Golay is an advisor in the Markets Group at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, focusing on the US Treasury market. She also helped lead an interagency working group report and a recent conference on the Treasury market. Ellen joins David on Macro Musings to talk about these and other Treasury-related developments. Ellen and David also discuss her career journey and role at the New York Fed, the current and future challenges in the Treasury Market, necessary areas for reform, and more. DISCLAIMER: Ellen Correia Golay’s views are her own, and they do not represent those of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or the Federal Reserve System. Transcript for this week’s Register now for . Ellen’s LinkedIn David Beckworth’s Twitter: Follow us on Twitter: Check out our new AI chatbot: the ! Join the new Macro Musings ! Join the Macro Musings Check out our Macro Musings Related Links: by the Inter-Agency Working Group on Treasury Market Surveillance (IAWG) — An event hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York Timestamps: (00:00:00) – Intro (00:03:09) – Ellen’s Career Journey and Role at the New York Fed (00:17:13) – Breaking Down the Treasury Market (00:20:38) – Current and Future Challenges in the Treasury Market (00:29:54) – How Would Central Clearing Impact the Fed and the Treasury Market? (00:31:47) – Explaining the Treasury Department Buyback Program (00:36:12) – Commencement of Data Dissemination on Individual Nominal Coupon Treasury Transactions (00:38:29) – Requiring the Reporting of Non-Centrally Cleared Bilateral Repos (00:41:26) – The 2024 U.S. Treasury Market Conference (00:43:50) – Future Areas for Reform in the Treasury Market (00:46:43) – Outro
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Emil Verner on Banking Crises, Credit Booms, and the Rise of Populism
11/18/2024
Emil Verner on Banking Crises, Credit Booms, and the Rise of Populism
Emil Verner is an associate professor of finance at MIT Sloan and is a research fellow at the National Bureau of Economic Research. Emil has written widely on financial stability, banking panics, and credit booms, and he joins David on Macro Musings to talk about these issues. Specifically, David and Emil also discuss the causes and policy implications of bank failures, the shortcomings of the Diamond-Dybvig model of bank runs, how financial crises spur the rise of populism, and much more. Transcript for this week’s Register now for . Emil’s Twitter: Emil’s David Beckworth’s Twitter: Follow us on Twitter: Check out our new AI chatbot: the ! Join the new Macro Musings ! Join the Macro Musings Check out our Macro Musings Related Links: by Sergio Correia, Stephan Luck, and Emil Verner by Matthew Baron, Emil Verner, and Wei Xiong by Gyozo Gyongyosi and Emil Verner by Charles Calomiris and Stephen Haber by Manuel Funke, Moritz Schularick, and Christoph Trebesch Timestamps: (00:00:00) – Intro (00:03:45) – Why Do We Care About Banking Panics and Financial Stability? (00:05:42) – Breaking Down the Causes of Bank Failures and its Policy Implications (00:13:38) – Exploring the Historical Banking Data (00:15:59) – *Failing Banks*: Key Findings and Takeaways (00:24:00) – *Banking Crises Without Panics* (00:28:05) – Responding to the Diamond-Dybvig Model of Bank Runs (00:33:29) – Applying the Bank Solvency Story to the Great Financial Crisis (00:36:16) – The Impact of Credit Booms (00:40:56) – What Are the Necessary Policy Prescriptions? (00:43:08) – Why is Diamond-Dybvig So Popular? (00:47:01) – *Financial Crisis, Creditor-Debtor Conflict, and Populism* (00:52:55) – How Do We Stem the Tide of Populism in the Future? (00:54:36) – Outro
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Loretta Mester on How to Improve the Fed’s Operating Framework
11/11/2024
Loretta Mester on How to Improve the Fed’s Operating Framework
Loretta Mester was president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland from 2014 through June of 2024, and she is a 39-year veteran of the Federal Reserve System. Loretta is also currently an adjunct professor of finance at the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania. She joins David on Macro Musings to talk about her time as Fed president and a recent paper she delivered on the Fed’s operating system. David and Loretta also discuss the ongoing battle against inflation, what to expect from the upcoming Fed framework review, and much more. Transcript for this week’s Register now for . Loretta’s Cleveland Fed Loretta’s Wharton David Beckworth’s Twitter: Follow us on Twitter: Check out our new AI chatbot: the ! Join the new Macro Musings ! Join the Macro Musings Check out our Macro Musings Related Links: – Remarks by Loretta Mester for the Panel on The Conduct of Monetary Policy: Evolution from Free Reserves to the Corridor and Floor Systems at the Shadow Open Market Committee 50th Anniversary Conference by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York Timestamps: (00:00:00) – Intro (00:02:18) – Loretta’s Career Path and Tenure at the Cleveland Fed (00:10:42) – The Ongoing Battle Against Inflation (00:17:53) – Evaluating FAIT and What to Expect from the 2024-25 Fed Framework Review (00:26:03) – Corridor vs. Floor: The Evolution of the Fed’s Operating System and its Policy Implications (00:41:31) – Estimating the Demand for Bank Reserves (00:45:57) – Addressing Over-reliance on the Fed in the Interbank Market (00:52:45) – Loretta’s Thoughts on Central Clearing and Increased Use of the Discount Window (00:55:23) – Outro
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Jon Hartley on the Shadow Open Market Committee and Macroeconomic Policy
11/04/2024
Jon Hartley on the Shadow Open Market Committee and Macroeconomic Policy
Jon Hartley is a macroeconomist and affiliated scholar at the Mercatus Center, and he is also the host of a Hoover Institution podcast titled, *Capitalism and Freedom in the 21st Century.* Jon joins David on Macro Musings to talk about the Hoover Institution’s recent monetary policy conference, *A 50-Year Retrospective on the Shadow Open Market Committee and its Role in Monetary Policy* as well as some of his own related work. Specifically, Jon and David also discuss the origins, purpose, and influence of the Shadow Open Market Committee, the tension between the fiscal theory of the price level and Fed policy, the significance of government debt management, and more. DISCLAIMER: The views expressed herein are those of the authors and should not be attributed to the IMF, its Executive Board, or its management. Transcript for this week’s Register now for . Jon’s podcast: Jon’s Twitter: Jon’s David Beckworth’s Twitter: Follow us on Twitter: Check out our new AI chatbot: the ! Join the new Macro Musings ! Join the Macro Musings Check out our Macro Musings Related Links: - An event hosted by the Hoover Institution by Jon Hartley, Matyas Farkas, and J.R. Scott by Jon Hartley and Lorenzo Rigon by Hanno Lustig, Zhengyang Jiang, Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, and Mindy Xiaolan by Nuno Palma by Francois Velde Timestamps: (00:00:00) – Bumper (00:00:41) – Intro (00:04:50) – The Origins, Purpose, and Influence of the Shadow Open Market Committee (00:13:18) – Why Has Money Fallen Out of Favor? (00:22:31) – How Well Does the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level Hold Up? (00:34:58) – The Tension Between the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level and Fed Policy (00:40:58) – Does Government Debt Management Matter? (00:51:10) – The Floor System, Quantitative Easing, and the Keys to Economic Growth (00:59:41) – Outro
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Tara Sinclair on Real-time Economic Analysis and the Fed’s Upcoming Framework Review
10/28/2024
Tara Sinclair on Real-time Economic Analysis and the Fed’s Upcoming Framework Review
Tara Sinclair is a professor of economics and international affairs at George Washington University, where she also directs the George Washington Center for Economic Research. From 2022 to 2024, Tara also served as the Deputy Assistant Secretary for Macroeconomics in the Office of Economic Policy at the US Department of Treasury. Tara joins David on Macro Musings to talk about her time at Treasury, real-time economic analysis, the Fed framework review, and much more. Transcript for this week’s Tara’s Twitter: Tara’s Tara’s GWU David Beckworth’s Twitter: Follow us on Twitter: Check out our new AI chatbot: the ! Join the new Macro Musings ! Join the Macro Musings Check out our Macro Musings Related Links: - Remarks by Tara Sinclair at the 2024 RTE Conference - Remarks by Tara Sinclair at the 66th NABE Annual Meeting by Mickey Levy and Charles Plosser by Gauti Eggertsson and Don Kohn by Michael Kiley by Christina Romer and David Romer Timestamps: (00:00:00) – Intro (00:01:25) – Working as a Deputy Assistant Secretary at the Treasury Department (00:06:31) – Building a Better Economic Database (00:10:15) – Breaking Down Real-time Economics and Real-time Data (00:16:06) – *Real Time Economics: Tales from the Trenches* (00:21:37) – Solving Our Current Data Challenges (00:24:36) – *Labor Shortages and Job Mismatch* (00:32:08) – Breaking Down the Upcoming Fed Framework Review (00:37:56) – Addressing the Concerns and Issues Surrounding the Fed’s Framework (00:42:50) – Unpacking the Dual Mandate and the Fed’s Broad and Inclusive Goal (00:53:45) – Could AI Define Maximum Employment in the Future? (00:56:13) – Outro
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Joseph Gagnon on the Trinity of COVID-era Inflation and the Upcoming Fed Framework Review
10/21/2024
Joseph Gagnon on the Trinity of COVID-era Inflation and the Upcoming Fed Framework Review
Joseph Gagnon is a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, a former senior Fed staffer, and a returning guest to the podcast. Joe rejoins David on Macro Musings to talk about the unholy trinity behind the COVID inflation surge and what history can teach us about the unusual inflation experience of that period. David and Joe also discuss the inflationary lessons from the Korean War, the Fed’s upcoming framework review, and much more. Transcript for this week’s Joseph’s Twitter: Joseph’s PIIE David Beckworth’s Twitter: Follow us on Twitter: Check out our new AI chatbot: the ! Join the new Macro Musings ! Join the Macro Musings Check out our Macro Musings Related Links: by Ben Bernanke and Olivier Blanchard by Laurence Ball, Daniel Leigh, and Prachi Mishra Timestamps: (00:00:00) – Intro (00:02:46) – Predicting the Post-Pandemic Inflation Surge (00:06:39) – Assessing the State of the Bond Market and Inflation Expectations After the Inflation Surge (00:16:14) – What Caused the U.S. Pandemic-Era Inflation: Breaking Down the Literature (00:23:45) – *The Trinity of COVID-Era Inflation in G7 Economies* (00:32:55) – *Why Did Inflation Rise and Fall So Rapidly? Lessons from the Korean War* (00:42:06) – Inflation, FAIT, and the Upcoming Fed Framework Review (00:49:18) – Why Should the Fed Consider Nominal GDP Targeting? (00:53:04) – Responding to the Measurement Issue Surrounding Nominal GDP (00:57:40) – Outro
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Emilio Ocampo on Dollarization and the State of the Argentine Economy
10/14/2024
Emilio Ocampo on Dollarization and the State of the Argentine Economy
Emilio Ocampo is a professor of finance and economic history at UCEMA. He has written widely on the Argentine economy and has advised President Javier Milei on economic policy. Emilio joins David on Macro Musings to talk about the current state of the Argentine economy, the present and ongoing reforms of President Milei, and the prospects for dollarization in Argentina. Transcript for this week’s Emilio’s Twitter: Emilio’s Emilio’s UCEMA David Beckworth’s Twitter: Follow us on Twitter: Check out our new AI chatbot: the ! Join the new Macro Musings ! Join the Macro Musings Check out our Macro Musings Related Links: by Emilio Ocampo by Emilio Ocampo and Nicolas Cachanosky by Ryan Dube Timestamps: (00:00:00) – Intro (00:03:58) – Assessing Argentina’s Progress on Lowering Inflation (00:11:12) – Exploring the Causes of Argentina’s Poor Economic Performance (00:15:20) – *Commitment Devices with Time Inconsistency Disease and Institutional Anomie* (00:26:29) – Javier Milei’s Plan to Revive Argentina (00:31:39) – The Next Steps for Argentine Economic Reform (00:39:56) – Defining Dollarization and Exploring its Historical Cases (00:49:33) – Transitioning to Dollarization in Argentina (00:55:12) – Dollarization Concerns and the Prospects for Dollarization Moving Forward (00:58:48) – Outro
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