Trump Hammers Iran. What Comes Next?
Net Assessment
Chris, Zack, and Melanie get together to discuss the very rapidly moving events in the Middle East following the execution of Operation Midnight Hammer. Why did President Trump decide to move from negotiating with Iran to ordering the strikes on the country’s nuclear facilities? Is this a case of alliance entrapment, or is it an example of an “America First” foreign policy? Is this the beginning of another long slog for America in the Middle East? Even though he has Republican majorities in the House and Senate, President Trump did not seek congressional authorization for the mission....
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Understanding the Four-Day War between India and Pakistan
Net Assessment
Chris, Melanie, and Zack discuss the recent short war between India and Pakistan. Christopher Clary’s first cut of history provides a careful reconstruction of the key events, made all the more difficult by misinformation and disinformation on both sides. But did either side “win”? What role, if any, did Trump administration officials play in negotiating the ceasefire, and what does their involvement portend for the future? How did new technology shape each side’s behavior in that conflict? And are crises between the two countries likely to escalate in severity in the coming years, or...
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Great Power Competition or Collusion?
Net Assessment
Is President Trump’s approach to foreign policy best described as a spheres of influence approach in which the major players are the United States, China, and Russia? Chris, Melanie, and Zack debate Stacie Goddard’s recent article outlining this idea and assess the implications for Europe, Asia, and North America. Chris expresses frustration with a new brand of American corruption, Melanie highlights China’s acquisition of land near Itaewon, and Zack laments the restructuring of the National Security Council. Links: Stacie E. Goddard, “The Rise and Fall of Great-Power Competition,”...
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The Paradoxical Power?
Net Assessment
An immense and growing national debt, entrenched political polarization, and falling levels of patriotism might lead some to conclude that the position of the United States in the world is weakening compared to other major economies. Michael Beckley looks at other measures, including geography, wealth, alliances, and demographics, and concludes that “This is the paradox of American power: the United States is a divided country, perpetually perceived as in decline, yet it consistently remains the wealthiest and most powerful state in the world—leaving competitors behind.” But, he says,...
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Is Arms Control Dead?
Net Assessment
Chris, Melanie, and Zack consider Rose Gottemoeller’s claim that arms control is not yet dead, but essential. Are there realistic prospects for a new arms control deal? If the Trump administration seriously seeks agreements with Russia and China, what should we demand? And what concessions might we offer? And what should be the objective of any new arms control agreements? Grievances for the Pentagon’s slow-motion train wreck, to worrisome reports of deep cuts at the State Department, and for the Trump administration’s reported minerals deal in Ukraine. Zack offers a heartfelt attaboy to...
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Why the Trump Administration Will Struggle to Make National Security Policy
Net Assessment
Chris, Melanie, and Zack launch their first Stimson-hosted Net Assessment show with a look at policymaking in the Trump administration. What are the major areas of consensus and disagreement within the administration? Through what lens will policy makers look at challenges such as China? And is a lack of ideological coherence a net positive or negative? Grievances for House GOP leaders playing games with the calendar to avoid a tough vote; for DOGE’s spending cuts that won’t drive the savings they claim, but that are creating havoc; and (again) for the Navy’s troubled Constellation...
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One Last Trip Around the World?
Net Assessment
Chris, Melanie, and Zack are joined by a special guest for a big announcement. They also lament the demise of the Office of Net Assessment, debate the merits of DOGE, and discuss Secretary Hegseth’s visit to Asia and the strength of those alliances. If you would like to support Net Assessment, please consider donating to this special fund: https://www.stimson.org/support/
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Will Israel Strike Iran?
Net Assessment
Chris, Melanie, and Zack debate whether Israel will strike Iranian nuclear facilities and whether the United States would discourage, encourage, or participate in such an operation. They come to very different conclusions not just about the likelihood of strikes, but also the strategic logic. Chris laments the removal of historical information from U.S. government websites, Melanie has a grievance with Congress for turning again to a continuing resolution to fund government, and Zack criticizes the administration’s efforts to pull Congressionally appropriated funds from several storied...
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The End of the World, Again?
Net Assessment
Chris, Zack, and Melanie have a rather somber discussion about the Trump administration’s efforts to get a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. Why is Trump so insistent on getting an immediate deal? What carrots and sticks, if any, are being given to each side? How will Europe respond to the obviously permanent change in the transatlantic relationship? Chris has some hard words for Congress for its abdication of oversight of arms sales, Zack gives an atta to his brilliant wife, and Melanie is pretty darn proud of the work being done at War on the Rocks.
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Is The People's Liberation Army Ready For a Fight Over Taiwan?
Net Assessment
In this show, Melanie, Chris, and Zack discuss Timothy Heath’s recent paper on China’s military capabilities. Heath argues that the People's Liberation Army mostly focused on preserving the Chinese Communist Party’s rule, and that does not necessarily translate to combat effectiveness. But is Heath right? Do we make a mistake in focusing too much on what is apparent from the outside? And if the People's Liberation Army is not ready to fight right now, might it be in the future? Grievances for Lindsey Graham’s wish-casting on Trump and NATO, for the Trump administration blowing up...
info_outlineChris, Zack, and Melanie get together to discuss the very rapidly moving events in the Middle East following the execution of Operation Midnight Hammer. Why did President Trump decide to move from negotiating with Iran to ordering the strikes on the country’s nuclear facilities? Is this a case of alliance entrapment, or is it an example of an “America First” foreign policy? Is this the beginning of another long slog for America in the Middle East? Even though he has Republican majorities in the House and Senate, President Trump did not seek congressional authorization for the mission. Was he constitutionally required to do so? What are the most likely near- and medium-term outcomes of the American and Israeli strikes?
There are grievances for Democrats who didn’t object to the unauthorized exercise of war powers by Presidents Obama and Biden but are suddenly relocating their constitutional scruples with a Republican now at the helm, a video message on nuclear weapons by DNI Tulsi Gabbard that may serve to undermine US extended deterrence, and the increasing violence against government officials and lack of security for them.
Attas go to the Institute for Global Affairs for new analysis of several countries’ perceptions of national security threats and priorities, to the United States Armed Forces for the brilliantly executed Operation Midnight Hammer, and to the United States Studies Centre for a fantastic workshop on integrated air and missile defense.
Show Links:
“Video: Kaine Speaks on Senate Floor Regarding His War Powers Resolution to Prevent War with Iran,” June 17, 2025
Eloise Cassier, Jonathan Guyer, Lucas Robinson, Ransom Miller, “2025 International Public Opinion Survey," Institute for Global Affairs, June 12, 2052
Evan Cooper, Christopher Preble, Alessandro Perri, “Restraint Towards Iran Serves US Interests,” Stimson Center, June 18, 2025
Alice Hunt Friend, Melanie Marlowe, Christopher Preble, “Debating the AUMFs,” Net Assessment, February 6, 2020
Patrick Kingsley, Adam Rasgon, Ronen Bergman, Natan Odenheimer, Julian E. Barnes, “Will Israel’s Interceptors Outlast Iran’s Missiles? The Answer May Shape the War,” New York Times, June 19, 2025.
Jonathan Swan, Maggie Haberman, Mark Mazzetti, Ronen Bergman, “How Trump Shifted on Iran Under Pressure from Israel,” New York Times, June 17, 2025.
Darya Dolzikova and Matthew Savill, “Operation Rising Lion: The First 72 Hours,” Royal United Services Institute, June 16, 2025.
Joint Resolution to direct the removal of United States Armed Forces from hostilities against the Islamic Republic of Iran that have not been authorized by Congress, June 2025.
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