Whither Venezuela?
Net Assessment
Chris, Melanie, and Zack, convene for a wide-ranging discussion of U.S. current and prospective military operations against the country of Venezuela, and the regime of Nicolas Maduro. Why is the United States sending fighter jets, an aircraft carrier, and other assets to the Caribbean? What does the military buildup say about which voices in the administration are being heard? And is there anything that Maduro can do, any deal he can make with Donald Trump, to avoid regime change, with or without a military conflict? Grievances for universities who cave to Chinese pressure and stop reporting...
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Are Rising Powers Over?
Net Assessment
Chris, Zack, and Melanie get together to talk about Michael Beckley’s new article, “The Stagnant Order and the End of Rising Powers.” What consequences might the decline and greying of populations have for global security? Has the era of transformative discoveries ended? Has the United States become a “rogue superpower, with little sense of obligation beyond itself”? Have corruption, political dysfunction, and waning innovation made it impossible for states to pursue agendas of economic growth and national security? Chris has a strong grievance for Congress which has failed to...
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Can Foreign Aid Be Reformed? Should It Be?
Net Assessment
Chris, Melanie, and Zack review Adam Tooze’s recent article on the failure of the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) – and Western-directed aid efforts generally. What should be the goals of foreign aid? Can development assistance, as it has recently been implemented, actually make a meaningful long-term difference in living standards? What might steep cuts in foreign aid mean for poor countries? In an era of great power competition, should we look at development assistance as a way to counter China’s influence? Grievances for the Trump administration’s policies toward China...
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Prediction is Hard, Especially about Confidence Levels
Net Assessment
Chris, Melanie, and Zack discuss the confidence problem among national security experts. As Jeffrey Friedman shows in a recent Texas National Security Review article, experts are often right but almost always overconfident in their predictions. What does this mean for the national security community? And how can experts address this systemic problem? Chris laments the Pentagon’s in-person gathering of military leaders and Melanie condemns misguided economic policymaking, while Zack commends President Trump’s support for a tougher NATO response to Russian incursions. Links: Jeffrey...
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Is a Fight with Russia Worth the Risks?
Net Assessment
Chris, Zack, and Melanie take some time to talk about how the United States, Europe, and Russia are dealing with the Ukraine conflict. Would a Russian win in a war which is costing billions of dollars, killing hundreds of thousands of Russians, and reinforcing Moscow's junior partner status to China only be a pyrrhic victory? Does Russia hold a winning hand because it seems to be willing to take on greater risk than Europe and the United States? Was the passive American reaction to the Russian drone incursion into Poland a sign that the US is done providing security commitments to Europe? Have...
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How Will the U.S. Deal With a Weaponized World Economy?
Net Assessment
Chris, Melanie, and Zack discuss Henry Farrell and Abraham Newman’s new article “The Weaponized World Economy.” Is the United States, which has been accused of weaponizing the global economy now getting a taste of its own medicine? Should America try to rebuild its economic security state for a world in which adversaries and allies can also employ economic coercion against us? And what are the key risks or challenges that the U.S. government will face if it goes down this path? Grievances for using the National Guard to pick up trash; to President Trump for toying with the idea of...
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A Strategy of Prioritization?
Net Assessment
Chris, Melanie, and Zack discuss Jennifer Lind and Daryl Press’s recent article on strategies of prioritization. They examine the challenges of executing such a strategy and debate whether the Trump administration is actually implementing this approach in practice. Chris commends Emma Ashford for her forthcoming book on multipolarity, Melanie laments attacks on Medal of Honor recipient Florent Groberg, and Zack critiques the Trump administration’s efforts to collect export taxes. Show Links: Jennifer Lind and Daryl G. Press, “,” Foreign Affairs, June 24, 2025 Jasper Ward, “,”...
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What’s the Plan for AI?
Net Assessment
Chris, Zack, and Melanie sit down to chat about the recently-released White House AI Action Plan. Should American AI policy be in pursuit of unchallenged dominance in the field? What kinds of investments and policy choices should the US government be making in order to accelerate AI innovation and deployment? Can the United States become one-stop-shopping for full-stack AI for our friends, in order to counter Chinese supremacy? Do Trump administration policies of the last six months contribute to us achieving our AI goals? Chris is unhappy with the firing of Bureau of Labor Statistics...
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Combating Mexican drug cartels: Is there a military solution?
Net Assessment
In this show, Chris, Melanie, and Zack consider the different military options being considered to combat Mexican drug cartels. Are the cartels that manufacture and distribute drugs that kill Americans, particularly fentanyl, a threat to US national security? If so, is military action, with or without the approval of the Mexican government, a viable solution? And if a military operation isn’t a great idea, are there other ways to stop the tens of thousands of fentanyl and other drug-related deaths that occur in the United States every year? Melanie remembers Andrew Schwartz, a force of...
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A New Nuclear Age: The Sum of All Fears?
Net Assessment
Chris, Melanie, and Zack discuss the “nuclear hurricane” sweeping the world. They begin by returning to the question of whether President Trump made the right decision to conduct strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities. Then they shift to discussing Vipin Narang and Pranay Vaddi’s recent article “How to Survive the New Nuclear Age.” Should American leaders adopt a new nuclear strategy or adjust existing nuclear policies and capabilities? Chris endorses the Trump administration’s rethinking of certain types of aid to Ukraine, Melanie applauds General Dan Caine’s handling of a...
info_outlineChris, Zack, and Melanie get together to discuss the very rapidly moving events in the Middle East following the execution of Operation Midnight Hammer. Why did President Trump decide to move from negotiating with Iran to ordering the strikes on the country’s nuclear facilities? Is this a case of alliance entrapment, or is it an example of an “America First” foreign policy? Is this the beginning of another long slog for America in the Middle East? Even though he has Republican majorities in the House and Senate, President Trump did not seek congressional authorization for the mission. Was he constitutionally required to do so? What are the most likely near- and medium-term outcomes of the American and Israeli strikes?
There are grievances for Democrats who didn’t object to the unauthorized exercise of war powers by Presidents Obama and Biden but are suddenly relocating their constitutional scruples with a Republican now at the helm, a video message on nuclear weapons by DNI Tulsi Gabbard that may serve to undermine US extended deterrence, and the increasing violence against government officials and lack of security for them.
Attas go to the Institute for Global Affairs for new analysis of several countries’ perceptions of national security threats and priorities, to the United States Armed Forces for the brilliantly executed Operation Midnight Hammer, and to the United States Studies Centre for a fantastic workshop on integrated air and missile defense.
Show Links:
“Video: Kaine Speaks on Senate Floor Regarding His War Powers Resolution to Prevent War with Iran,” June 17, 2025
Eloise Cassier, Jonathan Guyer, Lucas Robinson, Ransom Miller, “2025 International Public Opinion Survey," Institute for Global Affairs, June 12, 2052
Evan Cooper, Christopher Preble, Alessandro Perri, “Restraint Towards Iran Serves US Interests,” Stimson Center, June 18, 2025
Alice Hunt Friend, Melanie Marlowe, Christopher Preble, “Debating the AUMFs,” Net Assessment, February 6, 2020
Patrick Kingsley, Adam Rasgon, Ronen Bergman, Natan Odenheimer, Julian E. Barnes, “Will Israel’s Interceptors Outlast Iran’s Missiles? The Answer May Shape the War,” New York Times, June 19, 2025.
Jonathan Swan, Maggie Haberman, Mark Mazzetti, Ronen Bergman, “How Trump Shifted on Iran Under Pressure from Israel,” New York Times, June 17, 2025.
Darya Dolzikova and Matthew Savill, “Operation Rising Lion: The First 72 Hours,” Royal United Services Institute, June 16, 2025.
Joint Resolution to direct the removal of United States Armed Forces from hostilities against the Islamic Republic of Iran that have not been authorized by Congress, June 2025.
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