The Rational Reminder Podcast

A weekly reality check on sensible investing and financial decision-making, from three Canadians. Hosted by Benjamin Felix, Cameron Passmore, and Dan Bortolotti, Portfolio Managers at PWL Capital.

Episode 403: Patrick Adams - When Stock Crashes Matter for Long-Term Investors 04/02/2026

Episode 403: Patrick Adams - When Stock Crashes Matter for Long-Term Investors What if your biggest investment risk isn’t the stock market—but your own income? In this episode, we are joined by Patrick Adams, a PhD candidate at MIT, for a fascinating deep dive into how income risk, spending commitments, and liquidity constraints reshape what “optimal” investing actually looks like. Drawing on large-scale administrative tax data, Patrick challenges the conventional wisdom that young investors should be heavily—or even fully—invested in equities. We explore why stocks appear safe over long horizons but become risky when real-world constraints force investors to sell at the worst possible times. Patrick explains how high-income households behave during market downturns, why their income risk is closely tied to stock market performance, and how consumption commitments like mortgages and childcare create hidden financial leverage. The conversation also introduces a new life-cycle model that incorporates these frictions—leading to surprisingly conservative optimal equity allocations for working-age investors. This episode reframes asset allocation as a problem of liquidity and risk management, not just return maximization. Key Points From This Episode: (0:00:00) Introduction to the podcast and overview of the episode’s focus on asset allocation and new research. (0:01:18) Patrick Adams’ background, MIT PhD research, and how the paper was discovered. (0:07:08) Why stocks are considered safe for long-term investors based on historical returns. (0:08:37) When the “stocks for the long run” logic breaks down—forced selling during downturns. (0:10:35) Evidence: High-income households sell stocks during crashes instead of buying. (0:12:24) Data source: Administrative U.S. tax return data and its advantages/limitations. (0:14:23) Investors shift into fixed income during crashes rather than staying invested. (0:16:52) Financial reality: High wealth, but low liquid assets relative to income. (0:18:00) Human capital: Income is risky and correlated with stock market downturns. (0:20:15) Typical allocation: About 25% of liquid wealth in stocks for working-age households. (0:22:36) Higher-income households have more volatile flows and greater exposure to stock risk. (0:23:42) Income shocks drive stock selling—not just panic or behavioral mistakes. (0:25:29) Why households draw down assets instead of cutting spending sharply. (0:27:26) Consumption commitments (mortgages, childcare) act like hidden leverage. (0:27:57) Key risk factors: Income volatility, low liquidity, and inflexible expenses. (0:31:31) Traditional models vs reality: People don’t cut spending—they use savings. (0:35:25) New model incorporates income risk, market crashes, and spending frictions. (0:38:33) Core finding: Optimal equity allocation for working-age investors is only 10–40%. (0:40:55) Practical takeaway: Asset allocation is fundamentally about emergency funds. (0:42:35) Higher fixed expenses require larger safe asset buffers. (0:43:49) Counterintuitive result: Retirees may optimally hold more equities than workers. (0:46:56) Scenario analysis: Selling during downturns destroys long-term returns. (0:49:12) Key drivers of results: Income-stock correlation and spending rigidity. (0:51:11) Why this model differs from others suggesting 100% equity portfolios. (0:53:20) When 100% equity could make sense: low risk, high wealth, high risk tolerance. (0:56:28) Personal impact: Patrick rethinks his own savings, risk, and spending commitments. (0:57:34) Advice for listeners: Focus on liquidity, income risk, and fixed expenses. (0:59:58) Defining success: Impactful research, teaching, and meaningful personal relationships. Links: Patrick Adams – MIT PhD Candidate: Meet with PWL Capital: Rational Reminder on iTunes — . Rational Reminder on Instagram — Rational Reminder on YouTube — Benjamin Felix — Benjamin on X — Benjamin on LinkedIn — Cameron Passmore — Cameron on X — Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant () /episode/index/show/rationalreminder/id/40685020

Episode 402: The Problem with Private Markets 03/26/2026

Episode 402: The Problem with Private Markets In this episode, we unpack the growing tension in private markets—private equity, private credit, and private real estate—and examine whether their long-standing appeal holds up under scrutiny. With increasing pressure to bring these investments to retail investors, the discussion explores how illiquidity, valuation opacity, and complex fee structures may be masking risks rather than reducing them. We break down how private assets are marketed, why their “smooth” returns may be misleading, and what recent events—like gated funds and forced asset sales—reveal about their true risk profile. Key Points From This Episode: (0:00:00) Introduction to the episode and overview of private markets as the main topic. (0:00:39) Clarifying PWL Capital’s full-service wealth management approach beyond asset management. (0:03:24) Why private markets are under scrutiny and recent negative developments across asset classes. (0:06:36) The seductive sales pitch: higher returns, lower risk, and low correlation to public markets. (0:08:32) Private assets explained: what they are and why they appear less volatile. (0:10:06) “Volatility laundering” and the illusion of stability in private market valuations. (0:13:51) Retail investors entering private markets and the risk of adverse selection. (0:15:09) Liquidity challenges and the growing issue of gated funds. (0:18:33) Why illiquidity is especially problematic for retail investors with uncertain cash needs. (0:20:41) The debate over whether an illiquidity premium actually exists. (0:23:56) Trade-offs between liquidity and volatility in portfolio construction. (0:30:41) Evidence on private equity performance vs. public markets and the role of fees. (0:31:39) High dispersion in private equity returns and challenges of manager selection. (0:33:00) Continuation funds and evergreen structures raising valuation concerns. (0:36:00) Secondary market sales, NAV manipulation concerns, and “NAV squeezing.” (0:40:00) Private credit risks, gating, and comparisons to publicly traded BDCs. (0:44:00) Insurance companies allocating to private credit and potential systemic risks. (0:45:02) Private real estate funds, liquidity issues, and IPO valuation shocks. (0:47:43) Public listings revealing large gaps between NAV and market prices. (0:49:34) Summary: private markets may be as risky as public ones, with added complexity. (0:49:44) Larry Swedroe’s critique and the debate over private market outperformance. (0:52:00) Illiquidity premium vs. “smoothing as a service” debate. (0:54:00) Manager skill, persistence, and the challenge of accessing top-tier funds. (0:56:50) Final reflections on ongoing research and the importance of informed debate. Links: Meet with PWL Capital: Rational Reminder on iTunes — . Rational Reminder on Instagram — Rational Reminder on YouTube — Benjamin Felix — Benjamin on X — Benjamin on LinkedIn — Cameron Passmore — Cameron on X — Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant () /episode/index/show/rationalreminder/id/40610320

Episode 401: Eduardo Repetto & Caitlin Ebanks - Opening the Avantis CAGE 03/19/2026

Episode 401: Eduardo Repetto & Caitlin Ebanks - Opening the Avantis CAGE What if factor investing in Canada became as simple—and affordable—as buying a single ETF? In this episode, we are joined by Eduardo Repetto, CIO of Avantis Investors, and Caitlin Ebanks, Director of ETF Strategy at CIBC, to unpack the long-awaited launch of Avantis ETFs in Canada. This conversation explores how a partnership built on client-first principles and fee discipline is bringing sophisticated, evidence-based investing strategies to Canadian investors in a dramatically more accessible way. We dive into the structure and philosophy behind the new ETF lineup, including how Avantis applies factor tilts, why implementation details like direct security ownership and low turnover matter, and how the new asset allocation ETF (CAGE) could simplify portfolio construction for DIY investors. Eduardo also shares insights into Avantis’ research process, expected premiums, and the realities of tracking error, while Caitlin explains how CIBC is positioning these products within the Canadian ETF landscape. This episode is a deep dive into the evolution of factor investing—covering product design, pricing, portfolio construction, and the broader shift toward low-cost, transparent investment solutions. Key Points From This Episode: (0:00:00) Introduction to the episode and the significance of Avantis launching ETFs in Canada. (0:00:42) Why this launch marks a major step forward in accessibility for Canadian factor investors. (0:02:52) Lower fees and simplified implementation remove key barriers to factor investing. (0:04:55) Background on Eduardo Repetto and Caitlin Ebanks. (0:08:12) Avantis surpasses $125B AUM and the drivers behind its rapid growth. (0:10:20) How the Avantis–CIBC partnership came together and aligned on client-first pricing. (0:13:04) CIBC’s ETF strategy and rationale for partnering with Avantis. (0:14:49) Overview of the Avantis ETF lineup launching in Canada. (0:19:33) Fee structure, competitiveness, and expected MER approach. (0:21:25) Eliminating operational cost uncertainty from investor fees. (0:23:20) “Gas station sushi” and maintaining product quality. (0:25:08) Why ETFs were chosen over mutual funds as the primary vehicle. (0:28:29) Roles of Avantis and CIBC in managing and operating the ETFs. (0:29:32) Direct security ownership vs. ETF-of-ETF structures and tax implications. (0:31:23) Construction of the CAGE asset allocation ETF and its factor tilts. (0:33:46) Expected outperformance (1.5–2%) and tracking error (3–4%) ranges. (0:35:26) Transparency challenges and regulatory considerations in Canada. (0:37:26) How CACE differs from the TSX through profitability and valuation tilts. (0:40:13) Low turnover and tax efficiency considerations. (0:42:05) Long-term commitment to the ETF lineup and viability concerns. (0:43:44) Ongoing research and potential improvements to factor implementation. (0:46:07) Current research focus: improving profitability forecasting. (0:48:30) What excites Caitlin and Eduardo most about the launch. (0:50:41) Why CAGE could transform how Canadians implement factor investing. Links: Meet with PWL Capital: Rational Reminder on iTunes — . Rational Reminder on Instagram — Rational Reminder on YouTube — Benjamin Felix — Benjamin on X — Benjamin on LinkedIn — Cameron Passmore — Cameron on X — Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant () /episode/index/show/rationalreminder/id/40530140

Episode 400: The Evolution of Index Fund Investing 03/12/2026

Episode 400: The Evolution of Index Fund Investing In this special 400th episode, the Rational Reminder hosts reflect on 50 years of index investing and the profound impact it has had on financial markets, investor behavior, and the cost of investing. The episode features a panel moderated by Ben Felix at the New York Stock Exchange—hosted by Vanguard and S&P Dow Jones Indices—bringing together leading voices in the indexing world to explore how passive investing evolved and what it means for the future of capital markets. Ben is joined on the panel by Tim Edwards (S&P Dow Jones Indices), Jim Rowley (Vanguard), and Shelly Antoniewicz (Investment Company Institute) to discuss the mechanics of indexing, the myths surrounding passive investing, and the evidence on how index funds affect markets. They unpack questions about market concentration, price discovery, and whether indexing is changing the structure of capital markets. Key Points From This Episode: (0:00:04) Introduction to the Rational Reminder podcast and the hosts from PWL Capital. (0:00:24) Celebrating the 400th episode and reflecting on nearly eight years of podcasting. (0:01:09) Dan Bortolotti discusses the early days of podcasting and the transition from the Couch Potato podcast. (0:02:11) The rise of podcasts and YouTube as major sources of financial education for investors. (0:02:49) How Rational Reminder grew after Dan ended his previous podcast and the demand for Canadian investing content. (0:03:47) The podcast reaches a record audience with over 384,000 views and downloads in January 2026. (0:04:19) Institutional investors—foundations, endowments, and unions—show increasing interest in PWL’s low-cost index approach. (0:06:20) Why indexing can still be a difficult sell for institutional investment committees. (0:08:25) Peer effects in institutional investing: committees often hesitate to adopt strategies that seem unconventional. (0:09:11) 2026 marks 50 years since Vanguard launched the first retail index fund in 1976. (0:10:08) Ben moderates a panel at the New York Stock Exchange on the future of index investing. (0:11:55) Overview of the panel participants from Vanguard, S&P Dow Jones Indices, and the Investment Company Institute. (0:13:07) Discussion of research papers presented at the event examining index investing’s market impact. (0:14:32) Historical context: the S&P 500 is currently as concentrated as it was in the mid-1960s. (0:15:36) The largest companies in 1965—AT&T, Kodak, GM, IBM—eventually faded from dominance. (0:17:43) A hidden advantage of cap-weighted indexing: investors automatically own future winners. (0:20:59) Debate about whether today’s tech-heavy market concentration differs from past cycles. (0:23:30) The explosion of index funds and ETFs has created thousands of ways to implement passive strategies. (0:26:42) Technical improvements in ETF implementation, including lower tracking error and better hedging. (0:29:02) The “Vanguard Effect”: index investing has driven massive reductions in investment fees. (0:29:38) Index funds account for about 23% of total U.S. market capitalization, not the commonly cited 50%. (0:32:48) Evidence suggesting index funds have not increased large-cap concentration in markets. (0:34:25) Passive funds represent only about 1–2% of daily trading activity. (0:36:16) Dispersion in stock returns remains high, meaning opportunities for active management still exist. (0:38:12) Panel begins: defining passive investing and why the term is more complex than it seems. (0:42:13) Who invests in index funds? Millions of households using them primarily for retirement savings. (0:45:22) How advisors and institutions use ETFs to build diversified long-term portfolios. (0:46:19) The surprising role of ETFs in trading and market liquidity. (0:48:30) The proliferation of niche ETFs raises questions about whether indexing has strayed from Bogle’s vision. (0:49:49) Academic research offers conflicting views on indexing’s effect on market efficiency. (0:52:27) Evidence suggests index fund growth has not increased market volatility. (0:54:25) Dispersion data shows indexing does not eliminate opportunities for stock picking. (0:57:15) Index funds own only about 30% of the U.S. stock market, leaving the majority in active hands. (0:59:42) Historical perspective: high market concentration has occurred before and eventually declined. (1:02:14) Research remains inconclusive about whether indexing harms markets. (1:05:25) Over 20 years, 94% of actively managed U.S. equity mutual funds underperformed the S&P 500. (1:06:20) Post-panel reflections and discussion with the Rational Reminder hosts. Links From Today’s Episode: Meet with PWL Capital: Rational Reminder on iTunes — . Rational Reminder on Instagram — Rational Reminder on YouTube — Benjamin Felix — Benjamin on X — Benjamin on LinkedIn — Cameron Passmore — Cameron on X — Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com) /episode/index/show/rationalreminder/id/40404575

Episode 399: James Choi - Portfolio Theory in a Spreadsheet 03/05/2026

Episode 399: James Choi - Portfolio Theory in a Spreadsheet In this episode, we welcome back James Choi, Professor of Finance at the Yale School of Management, to unpack one of the most important—and misunderstood—questions in personal finance: How much of your portfolio should be in stocks? Drawing on his new paper, Practical Finance: An Approximate Solution to Lifecycle Portfolio Choice, James walks us through the classic portfolio choice problem first solved by Robert C. Merton, later extended by Francisco Gomes and co-authors, and now made dramatically more usable through a spreadsheet-based approximation. We explore how risk aversion, wealth, labor income risk, and expected returns shape optimal asset allocation, why simple rules like “100 minus your age” aren’t terrible but still costly, and how James and his co-authors managed to approximate a complex dynamic optimization model with an error of less than 0.1% in lifetime welfare. Key Points From This Episode: (0:04) Introduction and why this episode delivers on "mathy roots." (1:10) James Choi's new paper: Making lifecycle portfolio choice solvable in a spreadsheet. (5:15) The portfolio choice problem: How much should you allocate to stocks versus risk-free assets? (6:09) The classic Merton (1969, 1971) solution and the "Merton share." (8:00) The equity premium formula: Expected excess return ÷ (risk aversion × variance). (11:20) Extending the model to risky labor income (Cocco, Gomes, and Maenhout). (14:27) Why labor income behaves bond-like—even when it's risky. (16:33) How wealth, risk aversion, and labor income characteristics affect optimal equity allocation. (20:52) Transitory vs. permanent labor income risk—and why permanent risk matters more. (23:04) Solving thousands of parameter sets to approximate optimal lifecycle allocations. (27:09) How close is the approximation? ~3–4 percentage points on average, with <0.1% lifetime welfare loss. (29:56) Comparing to rules of thumb: 100 minus age and 60/40. (32:08) Why 0% equities is often far worse than 100% equities. (33:33) What the optimal allocation typically looks like over the life cycle. (38:55) Walking through the publicly available Google Sheet to calculate your allocation. (44:39) Estimating your risk aversion using a coin-flip thought experiment. (46:08) Forecasting future labor income and using wage imputation. (48:05) Why housing is excluded—and why it's so hard to model. (50:35) How often you should update your assumptions (hint: not often). (53:06) Leverage, constant leverage ETFs, and why young investors might rationally use them. (58:55) Discussing lifecycle advice from Scott Cederburg and co-authors. (1:07:40) What practical finance problem James wants to tackle next (hint: the 4% rule and retirement spending). Links From Today’s Episode: Meet with PWL Capital: Rational Reminder on iTunes — . Rational Reminder on Instagram — Rational Reminder on YouTube — Benjamin Felix — Benjamin on X — Benjamin on LinkedIn — Cameron Passmore — Cameron on X — Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com) /episode/index/show/rationalreminder/id/40306365

Episode 398: Tom Hardin - Ethics, Financial Crime, and Redemption 02/26/2026

Episode 398: Tom Hardin - Ethics, Financial Crime, and Redemption In this episode, we sit down with Tom Hardin, also known as “Tipper X,” the former hedge fund analyst who became one of the most prolific informants in the largest insider trading crackdown in U.S. history. Tom walks us through his journey from rule-following soccer referee in Georgia to Ivy League graduate and rising Wall Street analyst—before crossing the line into insider trading at age 29. What makes this conversation so compelling is not just the crime, but how ordinary it felt at the time. Tom explains how small rationalizations, cultural pressures, ambition, and the normalization of questionable behavior gradually eroded his ethical boundaries. After being arrested and recruited by the FBI, he wore a wire 48 times and helped build over 20 cases in Operation Perfect Hedge, exposing widespread misconduct across the hedge fund industry. We explore the psychology of ethical failure, the “fraud triangle,” moral licensing, and the difference between ethics in the classroom and ethics in the real world. Tom also reflects on redemption, forgiveness, mentorship, and how he now defines success after losing his finance career. Key Points From This Episode: (0:04) Introduction to Tom Hardin, former hedge fund analyst turned FBI informant. (5:15) Tom’s conviction: One count of securities fraud and one count of conspiracy after four illegal trades netting $46,000. (6:11) Early life as a rule-following soccer referee and how ambition shaped his identity. (8:07) The hedge fund world as a meritocracy—high pressure, high stakes, and performance-driven culture. (9:13) How insider trading networks operated openly in certain hedge fund circles. (12:21) The legal definition of insider trading: material non-public information and breach of fiduciary duty. (15:25) How difficult it is to consistently generate returns without some form of edge. (16:26) The first insider tip—and the rationalizations that followed. (19:03) The “fraud triangle”: pressure, opportunity, and rationalization. (22:16) Placing the first illegal trade—and feeling almost nothing. (24:39) Peer validation and the normalization of wrongdoing. (28:38) The 6:30 a.m. arrest and being approached by the FBI. (31:43) Deciding to cooperate—and becoming “Tipper X.” (36:24) Learning to wear a wire and extract incriminating statements over multiple meetings. (38:26) Inside Operation Perfect Hedge: 81 individuals charged, 32 cooperators. (39:28) The chilling effect on hedge funds and the possible decline of illicit “edge.” (42:12) Being publicly unmasked as Tipper X and the personal cost to his family. (44:02) Why ethical failures are incremental—not sudden transformations. (45:11) The gap between academic ethics and real-world psychological pressure. (46:57) The role mentorship could have played—and how culture shapes behavior. (50:29) Tom’s view on hedge funds for retail investors: high fees, limited liquidity, and questionable value. (52:04) Ethical drift, rationalization, and warning signs to watch for. (52:35) Redemption: Owning mistakes fully and learning to forgive yourself. (55:02) Redefining success—relationships, honesty, and meaningful contribution. Links From Today’s Episode: Meet with PWL Capital: Rational Reminder on iTunes — . Rational Reminder on Instagram — Rational Reminder on YouTube — Benjamin Felix — Benjamin on X — Benjamin on LinkedIn — Dan Bortolotti — Dan Bortolotti on LinkedIn — Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com) /episode/index/show/rationalreminder/id/40222365

Episode 397: Hendrik Bessembinder - Constant Leverage & Measuring Investor Outcomes 02/19/2026

Episode 397: Hendrik Bessembinder - Constant Leverage & Measuring Investor Outcomes In this episode, we welcome back return guest Hank Bessembinder for a deeply analytical conversation spanning leveraged ETFs, volatility, and the future of performance measurement. Hank walks us through his latest research on leveraged single-stock ETFs, clarifying the misunderstood concept of “volatility decay” and decomposing returns into rebalancing effects and frictions. The results are striking: meaningful underperformance relative to simple levered benchmarks, driven by both embedded costs and the mechanics of daily resets. In the second half, we shift gears to a more foundational question: What is a return, really? Hank challenges the dominance of arithmetic averages and even geometric means, arguing that neither truly captures the long-term investor experience. He introduces the concept of the sustainable return—a measure based on the cash flows an investment can support without depleting capital—and outlines how it could reshape academic finance and real-world financial planning. Key Points From This Episode: (0:01:03) Welcome back to Hank Bessembinder and overview of his recent research. (0:06:16) What “volatility decay” really means—and why the term may be misleading. (0:09:16) Why volatility does not necessarily reduce mean returns in constant leverage ETFs. (0:10:11) Ex-ante decision-making and the wedge between mean and median outcomes. (0:11:26) Single-stock vs. index leveraged ETFs: Similar mechanics, different magnitudes. (0:12:52) Why past research has been so cautionary about long-term use of leveraged ETFs. (0:15:53) How rebalancing costs differ for long and short leveraged products. (0:16:57) The benchmark: Levered buy-and-hold versus constant daily rebalancing. (0:19:46) Empirical results: Long funds underperform by ~0.8% per month; short funds by ~1% per month. (0:21:10) Decomposing underperformance into rebalancing effects and frictions. (0:24:15) The real (though rare) possibility of returns below –100% in leveraged products. (0:27:04) Simulation results over 50 years: Skewness, negative medians, and rebalancing drag. (0:28:38) Why volatility tends to coincide with reversals—and why reversals drive rebalancing costs. (0:31:15) Practical guidance: Who, if anyone, should use leveraged single-stock ETFs. (0:34:58) The limitations of arithmetic means and single-period models. (0:36:55) Why aggregate investors are not buy-and-hold investors. (0:39:17) The shortcomings of arithmetic averages, alphas, and Sharpe ratios for long-horizon measurement. (0:42:38) Why log returns don’t solve the core measurement problems. (0:44:56) The case for dollar-weighted returns and the limitations of IRRs. (0:48:18) Modified IRRs and their role in capturing aggregate investor outcomes. (0:50:14) Introducing the sustainable return: Measuring what can be withdrawn without depleting capital. (0:53:22) Expected sustainable return and its close relationship to the geometric mean. (0:56:09) Proportional sustainable return and withdrawal-based performance measurement. (1:00:00) Individual stock returns through the lens of sustainable returns. (1:00:53) Nudging academic finance beyond the “econometric streetlight.” Links From Today’s Episode: Meet with PWL Capital: Rational Reminder on iTunes — . Rational Reminder on Instagram — Rational Reminder on YouTube — Benjamin Felix — Benjamin on X — Benjamin on LinkedIn — Cameron Passmore — Cameron on X — Cameron on LinkedIn — Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com) /episode/index/show/rationalreminder/id/40153170

Episode 396: Theresa Ebden - Protecting Investors at the OSC 02/12/2026

Episode 396: Theresa Ebden - Protecting Investors at the OSC In this episode of the Rational Reminder Podcast, we are joined by Theresa Ebden, Vice President of the Investor Office at the Ontario Securities Commission, for a deep dive into how regulators are thinking about modern investor risks—from AI-powered scams to finfluencers and the gamification of investing apps. Theresa explains how the OSC works to protect investors through policy, education, behavioral research, and direct engagement with the public, and why investor education is one of the most powerful tools regulators have. Key Points From This Episode: (0:01:55) Overview of the OSC and why its investor research and education work matters. (5:42) What the Ontario Securities Commission does and its mandate to protect investors and capital markets. (6:25) Inside the OSC Investor Office: policy, education and outreach, and the investor contact centre. (9:28) How the Investor Office identifies priority issues using inquiry data, behavioral insights, and global collaboration. (12:11) The nature of investor inquiries: fraud, crypto confusion, complaints, and recovery room scams. (14:01) How contact-centre data feeds into education, outreach, and policy responses. (16:07) Overview of GetSmarterAboutMoney.ca and its role in investor education. (20:43) Major retail investor risks today: AI-enhanced scams, finfluencers, dark patterns, and gamification. (24:43) What to do if you’re impersonated by AI in scam advertisements. (29:28) What a “finfluencer” is and the different categories they fall into. (31:01) Research findings on how strongly finfluencers influence investor decisions. (32:55) Why non-investors are especially vulnerable to finfluencer advice and social-media scams. (36:11) How investors can evaluate online financial advice and check credentials. (38:02) Regulatory challenges in overseeing finfluencers and online financial content. (41:04) How AI magnifies traditional scams and why AI-enhanced fraud is more effective. (43:42) Mitigation strategies: education, just-in-time warnings, and system-level tools. (47:25) Relationship investment scams and why they are especially damaging. (52:53) Research on gamification in investing apps and its effects on investor behavior. (55:25) The Get Smarter About Trading simulator and how it demonstrates gamification effects. (57:19) How gamification can be used positively to improve diversification and outcomes. (58:16) Theresa’s perspective on success and her focus on improving the individual investor experience. Links From Today’s Episode: Meet with PWL Capital: Rational Reminder on iTunes — . Rational Reminder on Instagram — Rational Reminder on YouTube — Benjamin Felix — Benjamin on X — Benjamin on LinkedIn — Dan Bortolotti — Dan Bortolotti on LinkedIn — Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com) /episode/index/show/rationalreminder/id/40051295

Episode 395: Charles Chaffin - The Psychology of Financial Planning 02/05/2026

Episode 395: Charles Chaffin - The Psychology of Financial Planning Ben Felix and Braden Warwick are joined by Dr. Charles Chaffin, a leading voice in financial psychology, to explore why investors so often act against their own best interests—and how better tools and frameworks can help bridge the gap between rational plans and real human behavior. The conversation blends behavioral finance, goal setting, and risk profiling, while also introducing a new evidence-based risk tolerance questionnaire now being made publicly available to listeners. The episode digs into why humans are wired for short-term survival rather than long-term optimization, how biases and environment shape financial decisions, and why coaching—not transactions—is becoming the advisor’s most important role. Charles explains concepts like money scripts, financial flashpoints, identity-based goals, and financial self-efficacy, tying them directly to investing behavior and client outcomes. The discussion also goes deep on financial risk tolerance: what it really is, why people consistently misjudge it, and why psychometric tools outperform traditional questionnaires. Key Points From This Episode: (0:00:00) Introduction to Episode 395 and guest Dr. Charles Chaffin (0:01:15) Charles’ background in financial planning psychology and authorship (0:02:30) Why PWL wanted to move beyond the Grable–Lytton Risk Tolerance Scale (0:03:40) Introduction to the Money and Risk Inventory (MRI) and full disclosure (0:04:55) Announcement: Public access to a psychometric risk tolerance questionnaire (0:05:10) Risk tolerance vs. risk capacity—and how PWL combines both (0:06:43) Why firms must map risk scores to asset allocations themselves (0:08:35) The role of psychology in financial planning beyond technical advice (0:10:17) The Klontz–Chaffin model of financial psychology (0:12:05) Why humans are “bad with money”: survival brains and emotions (0:13:30) How heuristics and biases derail long-term planning (0:15:42) Tools for overcoming bias: automation, pre-commitment, and friction (0:21:29) How environment and social context shape financial behavior (0:26:38) Financial flashpoints and their lasting impact on risk tolerance (0:29:35) Financial self-efficacy and why low confidence leads to avoidance (0:36:01) Money scripts: avoidant, worship, status, and vigilant (0:40:07) Why understanding your own money scripts matters (0:41:19) Common behaviors that lead to poor financial outcomes (0:42:59) Practical strategies for recognizing and mitigating bad behaviors (0:48:22) The role of identity in goal setting (0:50:07) Why goals matter for motivation and behavior alignment (0:52:56) Intrinsic vs. extrinsic goals and self-determination theory (0:58:26) When quitting a goal is the right decision (1:00:26) What financial risk tolerance really is (1:02:16) Why people consistently misjudge their own risk tolerance (1:03:31) How stable risk tolerance is over time—and what changes it (1:05:12) Why reassessing risk tolerance regularly improves outcomes (1:06:05) Handling couples with mismatched risk profiles (1:07:37) Psychometric vs. revealed-preference risk questionnaires (1:09:30) Evidence showing psychometric tools better explain real risk-taking (1:10:39) Where traditional risk tolerance questionnaires fall short Links From Today’s Episode: PWL Risk Profile Tool — Meet with PWL Capital: Rational Reminder on iTunes — . Rational Reminder on Instagram — Rational Reminder on YouTube — Benjamin Felix — Benjamin on X — Benjamin on LinkedIn — Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com) /episode/index/show/rationalreminder/id/39976110

Episode 394: Equal Weight vs. Market Cap Weight Index Funds 01/29/2026

Episode 394: Equal Weight vs. Market Cap Weight Index Funds Equal-weighted index funds sound like an elegant solution to some of today’s biggest investor anxieties: high market concentration, elevated valuations, and outsized influence from a handful of mega-cap stocks. In this episode of the Rational Reminder Podcast, Ben Felix, Dan Bortolotti, and Ben Wilson take a deep, evidence-based look at whether equal weighting actually improves portfolios—or simply introduces new risks under a different name. The discussion breaks down how equal-weighted indices differ fundamentally from traditional market-cap-weighted indexes, why equal weighting has historically outperformed in certain periods, and what’s really driving those results beneath the surface. The team explains how equal weighting tilts portfolios toward smaller, cheaper, and more volatile stocks, while also systematically trading against momentum due to frequent rebalancing. Key Points From This Episode: (0:01:10) Introduction to Episode 394 and discussion about declining enthusiasm over long podcast runs. (0:02:00) PWL Capital’s growing work with institutional clients and why index-based approaches are rare in that space. (0:05:12) Episode topic introduced: equal-weighted index funds and why listeners keep asking about them. (0:06:00) Definition of market-cap-weighted vs. equal-weighted indexes using the S&P 500 as the main example. (0:07:14) Historical outperformance of equal-weighted S&P 500 indexes and why start dates matter. (0:09:00) Equal weight vs. cap weight performance over the last decade: meaningful recent underperformance. (0:10:21) Market concentration concerns and why equal weighting appears attractive during periods of high valuations. (0:12:00) Why market-cap-weighted indexes do not mechanically buy more overvalued stocks as prices rise. (0:16:14) Trading costs explained: explicit vs. implicit costs and why turnover matters more than TER. (0:19:16) Capital gains, tax efficiency, and reporting differences between Canadian and U.S. funds. (0:21:07) Market concentration historically shows little relationship with future returns. (0:24:58) Volatility comparison: equal-weighted indexes are meaningfully more volatile due to small-cap exposure. (0:25:12) Equal weighting increases exposure to small-cap, value, and high-volatility stocks. (0:28:58) Sector distortions created by equal weighting and why this represents uncompensated risk. (0:31:21) Unintended consequences: sector bets, security-level overweights, and forced rebalancing. (0:32:30) Turnover is roughly 10× higher in equal-weighted funds than cap-weighted equivalents. (0:33:15) Equal weighting behaves as a systematic anti-momentum strategy. (0:34:02) Multi-factor regression results: positive size and value exposure, negative momentum loading. (0:36:33) Rebalancing frequency trade-offs and how quarterly rebalancing amplifies momentum drag. (0:42:21) Comparison with alternative approaches that target similar factor exposures more efficiently. (0:44:47) Why backtests are seductive—and why live fund results matter more. (0:47:40) Investor behavior, uncertainty, and the constant search for strategies that “fix” the market. (0:48:41) Factor investing in disguise: most deviations from cap-weighting are just factor tilts. (0:53:06) Equal weighting as an acceptable strategy—if investors understand and accept the trade-offs. (0:57:18) Listener feedback, enthusiasm jokes, and discussion about Spotify video uploads and audio speed. Links From Today’s Episode: Meet with PWL Capital: Rational Reminder on iTunes — . Rational Reminder on Instagram — Rational Reminder on YouTube — Benjamin Felix — Benjamin on X — Benjamin on LinkedIn — Dan Bortolotti — Dan Bortolotti on LinkedIn — Ben Wilson on LinkedIn — Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com) /episode/index/show/rationalreminder/id/39901900

Episode 393: Engineering Financial Outcomes 01/22/2026

Episode 393: Engineering Financial Outcomes What if financial planning were approached the same way engineers design aircraft, medical treatments, or complex systems—with clearly defined objectives, constraints, and rigorous trade-off analysis? In this episode, Benjamin Felix is joined by Braden Warwick for a deep dive into what it means to engineer financial outcomes. Drawing on Braden’s background as a PhD-trained mechanical engineer and his work building financial planning software at PWL Capital, the conversation reframes financial planning as a design problem rather than a speculative exercise. They explore the critical distinction between a financial plan and a financial projection, why uncertainty does not invalidate good planning, and how professional communication under uncertainty can build trust with clients—especially those from technical backgrounds. The discussion highlights the importance of goals-based planning, sensitivity analysis, and explicitly quantifying trade-offs when clients have multiple competing objectives. Key Points From This Episode: (0:00:04) Introduction to Episode 393 and the return of Braden Warwick (0:02:50) Braden’s role at PWL and his experience deploying Conquest Planning software (0:05:46) The tension between low industry entry barriers and professional standards in financial planning (0:07:54) Braden’s background in mechanical engineering and academia 0:09:33) Financial plans vs. financial projections: why uncertainty doesn’t make a plan “wrong” (0:12:59) Lessons from medicine and engineering on communicating decisions under uncertainty (0:15:15) An engineering framework for financial planning: objectives first, then solutions (0:18:42) Why surface-level goals like “minimize tax” or “maximize returns” often miss what really matters (0:21:19) Evaluating plans against goals using projections, scenario analysis, and sensitivity analysis (0:24:28) Why sensitivity analysis helps planners focus on what actually drives outcomes (0:29:27) Handling multiple competing goals using trade-off analysis and Pareto frontiers (0:36:46) Practical ways planners can present trade-offs without complex math (0:39:25) Case study setup: professional financial planning with corporate clients (0:40:20) Salary vs. dividends for business owners when optimizing for legacy goals (0:44:26) Why financial planning software outputs can be misleading without context (0:48:23) The importance of understanding how planning software calculates key metrics (0:50:22) Using PWL’s free retirement tool to analyze CPP and OAS timing decisions (0:53:44) Approximating Monte Carlo outcomes using standard error of the mean (0:56:16) Linking “bad” and “terrible” outcomes to plan success probabilities (0:58:44) How CPP and OAS deferral affects sustainable spending and downside protection (1:02:46) What makes PWL’s CPP calculator different from typical break-even tools (1:05:15) Why wage inflation assumptions materially affect CPP deferral decisions (1:07:46) Closing framework: goals, constraints, sensitivity analysis, and quantified trade-offs (1:09:36) Financial planning as an emerging discipline rooted in engineering-style thinking Links From Today’s Episode: Live Webinar: How Much Do You Need to Retire in Canada? | Feb 12 @ 12NN EST | Register here — Meet with PWL Capital: Rational Reminder on iTunes — . Rational Reminder on Instagram — Rational Reminder on YouTube — Benjamin Felix — Benjamin on X — Benjamin on LinkedIn — Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com) /episode/index/show/rationalreminder/id/39802155

Episode 392: The Rise of ETF Slop 01/15/2026

Episode 392: The Rise of ETF Slop ETFs were once almost synonymous with low-cost, sensible investing. But that era is changing fast. In this episode, Ben Felix, Dan Bortolotti, and Ben Wilson introduce and unpack the concept of “ETF slop”—the explosion of complex, high-fee, behaviorally engineered ETFs that are designed to attract assets rather than improve investor outcomes. The trio traces how ETFs evolved from simple index-building tools into wrappers for increasingly speculative strategies. They discuss how the ETF “halo effect” can mislead investors into equating structure with quality, and why innovation in financial products often benefits manufacturers more than end investors. From thematic hype to downside “protection” that isn’t what it seems, the episode offers a clear framework for thinking critically about modern ETF offerings. Key Points From This Episode: (0:00:04) Introduction to the Rational Reminder Podcast and the hosts. (0:00:39) Ben introduces the idea of “ETF slop” and why ETFs are no longer synonymous with sensible investing. (2:20) More actively managed ETFs now exist than index-tracking ETFs in the U.S. (3:30) ETFs increasingly engineered to attract assets rather than improve investor outcomes. (4:04) Record ETF launches in 2025: over 1,000 in the U.S. and 300+ in Canada. (6:43) Average management fees on newly launched ETFs rival traditional active mutual funds. (7:47) The ETF “halo effect” and why structure is mistaken for quality. (10:31) What an ETF actually is—and why it’s just a wrapper for a strategy. (11:13) The first ETF was launched in Canada and still exists today. (14:40) ETFs as tools for speculation versus long-term investing. (17:08) Evidence that simpler allocation funds reduce harmful investor behavior. (20:35) Why too much product choice can make good investing harder. (21:40) Four categories of ETF slop introduced: thematic, buffer, covered call, and single-stock ETFs. (22:16) Why thematic ETFs appeal to optimism and extrapolation bias. (24:04) Evidence that most thematic ETFs underperform after launch. (26:25) Morningstar data: almost no thematic ETFs outperform over long horizons. (28:55) Why exciting narratives don’t translate into superior returns. (31:25) Buffer ETFs explained: capped upside with partial downside protection. (34:31) Research showing high fees, high costs, and inconsistent protection. (38:16) Why simple stock/bond mixes dominate buffer ETFs even in drawdowns. (42:53) Covered calls: high income today, lower total returns tomorrow. (45:48) Why covered call ETFs systematically underperform their underlying assets. (47:38) Income needs can be met more efficiently without covered calls. (48:19) The cult-like following driven by double-digit yield marketing. (49:57) Single-stock ETFs as the “sloppiest” form of ETF slop. (53:44) Leveraged and inverse ETFs magnify volatility and complexity. (56:20) Research showing massive underperformance versus simple benchmarks. (58:56) Why these products resemble speculation more than investing. (1:03:35) Complexity in investment products is strongly linked to poor outcomes. (1:05:48) John Bogle’s warning: beware of new and “hot” investment products. (1:06:48) Why ETFs are powerful tools—but only when used correctly. Links From Today’s Episode: Meet with PWL Capital: Rational Reminder on iTunes — . Rational Reminder on Instagram — Rational Reminder on YouTube — Benjamin Felix — Benjamin on X — Benjamin on LinkedIn — Cameron Passmore — Cameron on X — Cameron on LinkedIn — Ben Wilson on LinkedIn — Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com) /episode/index/show/rationalreminder/id/39728295

Episode 391: How Assumptions Shape Financial Planning Outcomes 01/08/2026

Episode 391: How Assumptions Shape Financial Planning Outcomes Financial planning is built on assumptions — about markets, inflation, longevity, human behaviour, and even the questions clients bring into the room. In this episode, Ben and Braden welcome a diverse panel that originally came together at the FP Canada Conference to explore how those assumptions influence planning outcomes in practice. Joining them are Adam Chapman, a retirement-focused planner who helps clients turn their money into memories; Joe Nunes, an actuary with decades of pension and longevity experience; and Aaron Theilade, Director of Continuing Education at FP Canada. Together, the panel unpacks how to make assumptions credible, how to stress-test them, how to navigate client bias, and how planners can blend math with humanity to create better client outcomes. Key Points From This Episode: (0:00:04) Why this episode: recreating a conference panel on planning assumptions. (0:01:03) Braden on the panel’s value for planners and DIY investors. (0:02:32) Meet the guests: Adam, Joe, Aaron, and Braden. (0:06:04) Assumptions matter: directional accuracy > prediction. (0:07:47) Actuarial view: start with inflation, bond yields, and risk capacity. (0:09:38) Engineering mindset: plan for expected and unexpected outcomes. (0:13:21) Client pushback: longevity surprises and hidden assumptions. (0:16:59) Asset allocation: strategic, goal-based, informed by behaviour. (0:20:57) Software limits: life is too variable for perfect modeling. (0:22:01) Behaviour gap: retirees spend less over time despite inflation. (0:25:18) Software guides; planners interpret and humanize outputs. (0:28:48) Use assumptions based on the specific question (e.g., withdrawals). (0:30:31) Always ask: “Why are we modeling this?” (0:34:15) Handling bias: reframe assumptions to reveal inconsistencies. (0:38:19) Assumptions evolve: returns, spending, and research all change. (0:42:38) Longevity beliefs: explore “why,” not just the data. (0:50:38) Core truth: every plan is wrong — planning is iterative. (0:52:20) When to update: depends on age, goals, and material changes. (0:57:23) PWL approach: twice-yearly updates + adjustments during extremes. (1:00:03) Tips: focus on behaviour, communication, goals, and integration. (1:10:02) Success: relationships, impact, freedom, and sharing knowledge. Links From Today’s Episode: Meet with PWL Capital: Rational Reminder on iTunes — . Rational Reminder on Instagram — Rational Reminder on YouTube — Benjamin Felix — Benjamin on X — Benjamin on LinkedIn — Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com) /episode/index/show/rationalreminder/id/39388225

Episode 390: The "AI Bubble" and Stock Market Concentration 01/01/2026

Episode 390: The "AI Bubble" and Stock Market Concentration In this first episode of 2026, we sit down for a deep dive into one of the hottest concerns coming from clients and listeners lately: Is the U.S. stock market dangerously concentrated—and are we in an AI bubble? Ben, Dan, and Ben unpack the data, the history, and the psychology behind today’s valuations, drawing lessons from past episodes of market euphoria such as Nortel in Canada, the dot-com boom, and Japan’s 1989 peak. They explain why high market valuations—not concentration—pose the bigger challenge, how bubbles historically fuel real economic innovation while hurting investors, and why diversification continues to offer the only reliable protection against unknowable futures. Along the way, they revisit examples of how value stocks, small-cap value, and global diversification have fared across different market regimes. Key Points From This Episode: (0:00:40) What RR is about: evidence-based insights, synthesis episodes, expert interviews, and long-form inquiry — not debates. (0:04:20) Why listeners value RR: transparency, friendly inquiry, returning to topics over time, and the hosts’ dynamic. (0:09:25) Rising concern: clients asking whether U.S. market concentration and an AI bubble mean it’s time to exit stocks. (0:11:10) Advisors echo similar worries: U.S. politics, all-time highs, and emotional decision-making. (0:14:20) Today’s data point: Top seven U.S. stocks = 36% of S&P 500; 32% of the total U.S. market — highest on record. (0:16:10) Why people fear concentration: a decline in the Magnificent Seven could meaningfully drag down the index. (0:17:30) Canada’s cautionary tale: Nortel once hit 36% of the TSX — collapsed to zero — but the market recovered by 2005. (0:21:20) Bubbles through history: canals, railways, fiber optics, dot-coms — innovation funded by speculation. (0:25:30) Dot-com parallels: huge ideas, low cost of capital, lots of failures — but lasting infrastructure remained. (0:28:40) AI dominance: Since ChatGPT, AI-linked companies drove 75% of S&P returns, 80% of earnings growth, 90% of capex. (0:31:15) Reminder: No bubble calls — just context. High prices don’t equal an inevitable crash. (0:33:10) Concentration vs. valuation: concentration shows weak links to future returns; valuations matter far more. (0:35:05) Market timing trap: U.S. valuations were high in 2021 — selling then would have been disastrous. (0:36:40) The U.S. lost decade: 2000–2010 returns were flat; in CAD, recovery didn’t happen until 2013. (0:38:55) Value stocks held up: U.S. value and small-cap value delivered positive returns while broad indexes stagnated. (0:41:00) Recency bias reminder: Canadians once avoided U.S. stocks entirely after a decade of underperformance. (0:44:05) Japan 1989: World’s largest market crashes — still not recovered in real terms 36 years later. (0:47:10) Global diversification wins: A 40% Japan-weighted global portfolio still performed fine thanks to U.S. growth. (0:49:00) Cross-country data: Many markets are far more concentrated than the U.S. — still delivered solid returns. (0:52:30) Valuation evidence: Higher CAPE = lower future returns — economically strong pattern across countries. (0:55:40) Core lesson: Diversification + discipline. You will always hold winners and losers — that’s the point. (0:57:55) Practical ways to lower concentration risk: global equity funds, small caps, and Canada’s 10% cap rule. (1:00:30) Why active managers don’t help: only ~30–47% outperform depending on concentration trend. (1:03:25) Final takeaway: high valuations may imply lower returns, but prediction is impossible — stay diversified. (1:05:15) After-show review: Addressing a one-star critique (“Fartcoin Designer”) with humour and community context. Links From Today’s Episode: Meet with PWL Capital: Rational Reminder on iTunes — . Rational Reminder on Instagram — Rational Reminder on YouTube — Benjamin Felix — Benjamin on X — Benjamin on LinkedIn — Cameron Passmore — Cameron on X — Cameron on LinkedIn — Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com) /episode/index/show/rationalreminder/id/39348010

Episode 389: How the Rational Reminder Podcast is Made 12/25/2025

Episode 389: How the Rational Reminder Podcast is Made In this special year-end episode, Ben and Cameron turn the spotlight inward for a behind-the-scenes look at the Rational Reminder podcast. They’re joined by the extended team that keeps the show running—from compliance to editing to marketing—to reflect on a landmark year in the podcast’s evolution. We hear from Multimedia Specialist Matt Gambino, Compliance Reviewer Ross Brayton, long-time Marketing Lead Angelica Montagano, and others who share their roles, personal stories, and what the show means to them. Ben and Cameron also discuss the podcast’s growth trajectory, the impact of joining OneDigital, standout market events from 2025, and what’s ahead for 2026. It’s a thoughtful, personal, and often funny conversation that celebrates community, nerdiness, and meaningful work. Key Points From This Episode: (0:01:00) Behind the scenes: Why the entire Rational Reminder team joined the mic for this special episode. (0:01:40) Meet the production crew: From video editing to compliance and marketing. (0:02:54) From 767 to 334,000: How the podcast grew since August 2018. (0:04:40) YouTube’s rising role: Now 33% of all podcast consumption. (0:07:24) AMA evolution: How listener Q&As became a regular series in 2025. (0:08:45) Bringing in PWL advisors: Sharing real-world financial planning experience on the pod. (0:10:05) 12,500 members: Rational Reminder Community continues to thrive. (0:11:30) OneDigital acquisition reflections—one year later, no pressure to cut costs or change values. (0:14:23) Compliance-free growth: Maintaining service levels while scaling the firm. (0:15:06) Market surprise of 2025: Canadian small caps up 35%+ year-to-date. (0:16:55) Real estate rewind: National average home prices down 20% since 2022 peak. (0:19:24) Rent declines too: Down 7% YoY in Toronto, 4.4% in Vancouver. (0:20:39) Looking back: A wild year of unexpected returns and market resilience. (0:21:00) A different kind of year-end episode: No highlight reel—just team storytelling. (0:23:53) [Matt Gambino] The editor speaks: Role evolution, creative direction, and 200+ episodes later. (0:28:42) YouTube growth: From 11,000 to 46,000 subs under Matt’s watch. (0:32:55) Matt on money: What 4 years editing the pod taught him about finance and happiness. (0:36:54) Defining success: Matt’s answer after years of listening to the show. (38:40) [Ross Brayton] Compliance from the inside: What Ross listens for, and why disclaimers got longer. (0:43:05) Ross on investing: From Warren Buffett books to podcast fact-checker. (0:46:11) Planning life after financial independence: Ross poses a thoughtful challenge. (0:47:41) [Angelica Montagano] The original marketer: How the podcast started in a hallway. (0:50:14) Early tech struggles: Mono recordings, brick recorders, and lots of duct tape. (0:51:53) COVID’s silver lining: Why lockdowns accelerated the pod’s evolution. (0:54:20) Launching the RR Community: From 100-member goal to 12,500+ and counting. (0:55:49) Podcast = Brand: How RR became central to PWL’s identity and communication. (0:57:26) What’s next: Angelica’s dreams for live events and even a coffee table book. (0:59:10) Angelica on investing: From ex-banker cynicism to believer in behavior and psychology. (1:00:38) Favorite moment: Hearing real stories of how listeners’ lives have been changed. (1:01:36) Defining success: Impact, confidence, and financial empowerment. Links From Today’s Episode: Meet with PWL Capital: Rational Reminder on iTunes — . Rational Reminder on Instagram — Rational Reminder on YouTube — Benjamin Felix — Benjamin on X — Benjamin on LinkedIn — Cameron Passmore — Cameron on X — Cameron on LinkedIn — Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com). /episode/index/show/rationalreminder/id/39343260

Episode 388: AMA #11 - Your Parents' Advisor, 100% Equity Portfolios, and Investing $10 Billion 12/18/2025

Episode 388: AMA #11 - Your Parents' Advisor, 100% Equity Portfolios, and Investing $10 Billion In this special year-end AMA, the full PWL crew — Ben Felix, Cameron Passmore, Ben Wilson, and Dan Bortolotti — sit down together for the first time on the podcast to reflect on the roller-coaster that was 2025 and to tackle a wide range of thoughtful listener questions. The episode begins with reflections on a year that included wild market swings, an extraordinary rally few predicted, major changes within PWL, and personal milestones. From there, the team dives deep into the psychology of staying invested, the real risks of inexperienced investors going 100% equities, the complexity of asset location and pre-tax vs. after-tax allocation, and how to talk to family members who are paying too much in investment fees. Key Points From This Episode: (0:04) Introduction — first-ever full-team recording and setup for the year-end AMA. (1:12) Why not all AMA questions could be answered — over 400 submissions and many not suited to the format. (1:48) 2024 market recap — from early-year panic to strong double-digit global equity returns. (3:59) The speed of recoveries — why missing a quick rebound can permanently derail returns. (5:34) Cameron’s lessons from 2024 — unpredictability, growing adoption of evidence-based investing, joining a bigger organization, and driverless-car optimism. (7:41) Ben Wilson becomes a co-host — an unplanned evolution shaped by listener feedback. (9:51) Dan on humility in forecasting and reconnecting with theoretical research. (11:18) Ben’s personal year — firm acquisition, equity value jump, and navigating his cancer diagnosis. (12:32) Talking to parents about high fees — emotional dynamics, non-confrontational questions, and the danger of implied judgment. (23:01) Should beginners hold 100% equities? Behavioral risk, volatility blindness, and why it shouldn’t be the default allocation. (30:35) Pre-tax vs. after-tax asset allocation — why RRSP dollars aren’t equal to TFSA dollars and how that changes true risk exposure. (36:09) Why PWL rarely optimizes asset location — complexity, low payoff, and behavioral clarity. (44:42) What PWL does (and doesn’t) offer — discretionary management, integrated planning, outside specialists, and tax deductibility rules. (49:04) “I know I need index funds — but how do I actually buy them?” Robo-advisors vs. one-ticket ETFs and why placing a trade is the real barrier. (57:47) Ben’s lessons as a new homeowner — maintenance costs far above expectations and the hidden burden of being your own contractor. (1:01:54) The strangest portfolios — single-stock windfalls, leverage without client awareness, bullion-only strategies, and the infamous “meatloaf portfolio.” Links From Today’s Episode: Meet with PWL Capital: Rational Reminder on iTunes — . Rational Reminder on Instagram — Rational Reminder on YouTube — Benjamin Felix — Benjamin on X — Benjamin on LinkedIn — Cameron Passmore — Cameron on X — Cameron on LinkedIn — Ben Wilson on LinkedIn — Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com) /episode/index/show/rationalreminder/id/39344125

Episode 387: Lessons from The Wealthy Barber (2025) 12/11/2025

Episode 387: Lessons from The Wealthy Barber (2025) In this episode, the team digs into the newly updated 2025 edition of The Wealthy Barber — Dave Chilton’s iconic Canadian personal finance book that helped shape millions of financial journeys. Ben, Dan, and Ben walk through the biggest lessons Dave has reworked for a world of high housing costs, social-media-fueled spending pressure, new tax-sheltered accounts, and the ever-present noise of investing advice. This discussion explores why the book remains so effective: it blends timeless principles with approachable storytelling, humor, and deeply practical guidance. The conversation also highlights Dave’s real-world insights from reviewing thousands of personal financial situations across Canada. You’ll hear how the book explains foundational habits like paying yourself first, why simple investing beats stock picking, how renters can build wealth, and why understanding your own spending is the key to unlocking both financial progress and happiness. Whether you’re brand new to money or a seasoned investor, the updated lessons hit harder in 2025 than ever before. Key Points From This Episode: (0:04) Introduction — recording early and setting up a deep dive into the updated Wealthy Barber. (0:53) Why the new 2025 edition lands so well: humor, modern references, and timeless lessons. (1:30) Dave Chilton’s real-world insight from reviewing thousands of Canadians’ financial situations. (2:23) Why the storytelling works — characters, humor, and accessible teaching. (3:45) Inside the narrative: Roy the barber, Matt, Maddie, Jess, Kyle, and the barbershop regulars. (7:53) Lesson 1: “You can do this” — personal finance isn’t about math, it’s about simple principles. (12:08) Lesson 2: Save 10% and pay yourself first — habit beats theory, compounding does the rest. (14:29) Why saving is hard today: algorithms, FOMO, lifestyle creep, and rising costs. (16:57) The behavioral case for saving early, even if economists say otherwise. (18:52) Lesson 3: Be an owner, not a loaner — stocks vs. bonds and the engine of human ingenuity. (22:49) The investor’s paradox — the less you think you know, the better you invest. (24:05) Why indexing wins: skewed stock returns and the impossibility of picking winners. (27:49) How investing has changed since 1989 — indexing is now widely accessible. (28:18) “The world feels scary today…” — the 1847 quote showing it always feels that way. (34:03) RRSP vs. TFSA — identical outcomes at equal tax rates, and why RRSPs shine when taxed lower later. (39:12) Debunking the RRSP “tax bomb” — why high earners still benefit most. (42:06) Lesson 4: Housing — the four levers to buy today (cheaper homes, <20% down, 30-year amortization, FHSA/HBP). (46:34) Why today’s young buyers need new strategies, not 1980s nostalgia. (48:02) Longer amortizations: counterintuitive but often financially sound. (49:05) Leverage vs. psychology — why borrowing to invest feels scary even when the math matches. (52:36) Renting isn’t throwing money away — disciplined renters can match homeowner wealth. (53:51) The hidden costs of owning — repairs, trees, chimneys, and constant surprises. (55:44) The Canadian stigma around renting — and why it’s undeserved. (56:42) Lesson 5: Spending — “faulty brain wiring,” social pressure, and unconscious habits. (1:00:46) The multi-month spending summary — tedious but life-changing for both finances and happiness. (1:02:43) Joy units per dollar — reallocating spending to maximize happiness. (1:03:47) Practical rules: delay big purchases, beware car costs, indulge selectively, and remember “$1 saved = $2 earned.” Links From Today’s Episode: Meet with PWL Capital: Rational Reminder on iTunes — . Rational Reminder on Instagram — Rational Reminder on YouTube — Benjamin Felix — Benjamin on X — Benjamin on LinkedIn — Cameron Passmore — Cameron on X — Cameron on LinkedIn — Ben Wilson on LinkedIn — Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com) /episode/index/show/rationalreminder/id/39170325

Episode 386: Is anyone doing dd? with Aravind Sithamparapillai 12/04/2025

Episode 386: Is anyone doing dd? with Aravind Sithamparapillai What happens when alternative investments shift from niche products to the industry’s go-to value proposition? In this episode, we’re joined by financial planner and self-described “pathological nerd” Aravind Sithamparapillai for a rigorous exploration of private markets, product due diligence, advisor incentives, and the narratives driving the surging popularity of alts. Aravind has become known in advisor circles for asking the uncomfortable questions at conferences—the ones that expose gaps in explanations, shaky assumptions, and in some cases, outright contradictions. In this conversation, he shares the stories and analytical frameworks behind his deep dives into mortgage funds, private credit, private real estate, IRR-based marketing, vintage stacking, stale pricing, operational risk, and why even large professional allocators get burned. We explore how advisors are selling alts, how funds are pitching them, what due diligence actually requires, how expected returns can be decomposed, and why illiquidity and “low correlation” benefits rarely play out in practice. Aravind also explains how some funds maintain stable NAVs through “extend and pretend,” how gating works, why audited financials aren’t a safety blanket, and why even top-tier firms miss red flags. Key Points From This Episode: (0:00:38) Aravind’s introduction and reputation for deep, “pathological” research (0:02:23) Why alts have become embedded in Toronto’s planning culture (0:03:38) Client pressure, advisor FOMO, and the belief that 60/40 is “broken” (0:05:31) Aravind’s personal path into indexing, factors, and Dimensional (0:10:46) Why he started digging into alts: curiosity, client conversations, and advisor narratives (0:13:47) The “conference meme”: why he asks questions others avoid (16:58) The role of intellectual honesty vs. industry narratives (20:19) The pivotal 2023 mortgage fund story: duration, turnover, and a major contradiction (22:51) “Extend and pretend”: how stable NAVs can be manufactured (28:59) What “gating” actually means and why it matters (31:48) Marketing tactics: cherry-picked start dates and chart crimes (32:47) IRR manipulation, vintage stacking, and anchoring bias (36:35) Why comparing gross private credit returns to net equity returns is misleading (39:18) The problem with “low correlation” as a selling point (41:00) Why rebalancing with illiquid assets often fails in practice (44:58) How Aravind builds expected return estimates for alts (47:07) Private real estate: why expected returns often land near public market levels (48:48) A case study: apparent outperformance disappears once you match the right benchmark (51:43) The idiosyncratic risk of overweighting single-sector, single-region REITs (55:12) Why most advisors don’t truly understand the all-in fees (58:00) What real due diligence should include (and why it’s so hard) (1:00:35) Should advisors trust third-party due diligence providers? (1:02:58) How much comfort should investors take from audited financials? (1:05:02) Why valuation levels (1–3) matter and why most private funds use Level 3 inputs (1:06:00) The overall conclusion: markets work, but alts require extraordinary scrutiny Links From Today’s Episode: Meet with PWL Capital: Rational Reminder on iTunes — . Rational Reminder on Instagram — Rational Reminder on YouTube — Benjamin Felix — Benjamin on X — Benjamin on LinkedIn — Cameron Passmore — Cameron on X — Cameron on LinkedIn — Ben Wilson on LinkedIn — Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com) /episode/index/show/rationalreminder/id/39184250

Episode 385: A Case Study on Pension Benefits vs. Commuted Values 11/27/2025

Episode 385: A Case Study on Pension Benefits vs. Commuted Values In this episode, we feature two conversations that highlight PWL’s culture, values, and intentional approach to advice. We first sit down with Trevor Daigle and Brett Watt, founders of EB Wealth in Halifax, to talk about why they chose to merge their thriving independent practice with PWL — PWL’s first acquisition in Atlantic Canada. Trevor and Brett open up about what they saw in PWL’s infrastructure, culture, and client-first philosophy, the internal hurdles they had to clear (including their own egos), and the moment they realized they “couldn’t unsee” what PWL had built. Then, in the second half of the episode, PWL Portfolio Manager and Financial Planner Phil Briggs walks us through a remarkable real-world case. A podcast listener’s father decided to take the commuted value of his defined benefit pension… and the family approached PWL to invest it. Rather than simply execute the plan, Phil stepped back to rigorously analyze whether that decision made sense at all. The result is one of the most compelling demonstrations of evidence-based financial planning we’ve featured on the show — covering risk pooling, tax implications, Monte Carlo results, survivor benefits, and the emotional side of decision-making. Key Points From This Episode: (0:00:51) Welcoming Trevor and Brett — and why their practice, EB Wealth, aligned so closely with PWL’s holistic philosophy. (0:02:30) How long-term cultural fit, infrastructure, and research depth drove their decision to join PWL. (0:04:57) “We can’t unsee that”: The moment a visit to Ottawa convinced them PWL’s values were real at every level. (0:07:45) Their biggest concern: giving up control after years of running an independent practice — and how that shifted. (0:09:43) Setting aside ego: How thinking long-term and client-first changed their perspective on joining PWL. (0:11:35) What excites them most about the future: growth, learning, and being surrounded by experts who prioritize client outcomes. (0:13:17) Seeing PWL’s collaborative culture in action — and why industry-typical “sales meetings” were nowhere to be found. (0:14:43) Transitioning clients and feeling the immediate impact on conversations and relationships. (15:05) The setup: A podcast listener reaches out after his father already decided to take the commuted value of a DB pension. (17:25) Why Phil was surprised — and the questions he wanted answered before talking about investing. (17:25–18:49) The benefits of staying in a DB pension: risk transfer, inflation protection, and mortality pooling. (19:07) The risks: employer insolvency, underfunding, and historical examples like Sears Canada and Nortel. (20:10–22:04) Evaluating pension solvency: sponsors, surplus status, funding ratios, diversification, and regulatory filings. (23:49) Reasons someone might take the commuted value: investment preferences, life expectancy concerns, and survivor benefits — the central issue in this case. (25:15–30:52) The tax trap: how the “excess amount” of a commuted value can trigger immediate taxation — in this case at the 53.53% marginal rate — and how RRSP room and PARs interact. (31:26–33:53) Modeling the decision: building retirement scenarios in financial planning software, including spending, inflation, CPP/OAS, rental income, and Monte Carlo analysis. (34:00–37:54) Results: 60/40 investment after commuting: overfunded plan but with significant volatility. 100% equity: higher legacy, similar failure rate. Leaving the pension with the employer: similar retirement score but dramatically higher Monte Carlo success (96%) due to guaranteed income, inflation hedging, and tax smoothing. (38:32–40:55) Why the pension’s stable income floor and deferred taxation made such a big difference — even in a shortened-life-expectancy scenario. (41:05–41:37) Other firms simply accepted the commuted-value plan; PWL was the only firm to fully analyze the decision. (43:50–44:53) How personal values, risks, and emotional comfort interact with data in real financial planning decisions. (45:00–47:28) The next decision: choosing between a higher pension with a 2/3 survivor benefit or a lower pension with a 100% survivor benefit — and how break-even analysis (age 81) informed the client’s choice. (47:44–48:31) Why planning software provides clarity people can’t get through gut feel alone. (48:31–49:59) Trust and incentives: why turning down a large investable sum was the right decision — and why PWL celebrates that. (50:08–51:01) Culture + incentives: how PWL’s structure allows advisors to prioritize clients without sales pressure. Links From Today’s Episode: Meet with PWL Capital: Rational Reminder on iTunes — . Rational Reminder on Instagram — Rational Reminder on YouTube — Benjamin Felix — Benjamin on X — Benjamin on LinkedIn — Cameron Passmore — Cameron on X — Cameron on LinkedIn — Ben Wilson on LinkedIn — Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com) /episode/index/show/rationalreminder/id/39105035

Episode 384: Mamdouh Medhat - A Profitability Retrospective, and Private Fund Performance 11/20/2025

Episode 384: Mamdouh Medhat - A Profitability Retrospective, and Private Fund Performance In this episode, we’re joined by Mamdouh Medhat, VP and Senior Researcher at Dimensional Fund Advisors, for an exceptionally deep, exceptionally nerdy exploration of factor investing—focusing on profitability, value, defensive equity, and the persistent misunderstandings that surround them. Mamdouh walks us through his retrospective paper (co-authored with Robert Novy-Marx) on the profitability premium, why profitability subsumes a wide range of quality metrics, and why it dramatically clarifies how we should think about defensive/low-volatility strategies. He also explains the role of profitability in value’s US underperformance since 2007, why price-to-book remains a remarkably effective valuation metric, and how Dimensional incorporates these insights into portfolio construction. In the second half of the conversation, we shift to private markets. Mamdouh unpacks Dimensional’s research on buyouts, venture capital, private credit, and private real estate—revealing what percentage of the global investable universe these funds actually represent, how to benchmark them properly, how much dispersion exists across managers, how fair-value accounting changed the game post-2007, and why many perceived diversification benefits are actually just return smoothing. Key Points From This Episode: (0:04) Intro to Mamdouh Medhat and why his research fits the Rational Reminder “nerdy happy place.” (1:32) The story behind Mamdouh’s retrospective paper with Robert Novy-Marx and the impact of the original profitability research on academia and practice. (5:36) Three things the paper examines: quality investing, defensive/low-risk strategies, and value—unified through profitability. (6:55) Why none of the 15 major academic and practitioner quality metrics add explanatory power beyond profitability. (8:18) How spanning tests show profitability explains quality, but quality does not explain profitability. (12:24) Quality measures largely load on profitability—they’re noisier versions of the same thing. (13:14) The link between quality metrics and fundamental momentum, especially for QMJ and quarterly ROE. (15:18) Practical implications: profitability is a parsimonious, more efficient way to capture the “quality” dimension. (16:30) Defensive equity through the profitability lens—why high profitability predicts low volatility. (18:58) Why long-only low-volatility strategies produce zero five-factor alpha—and why a simple high-profitability/low-investment portfolio plus T-bills beats them. (22:14) Alternative value metrics (EBITDA/EV, intangible-adjusted book-to-market, etc.) don’t outperform price-to-book when profitability is accounted for. (24:57) Many “improved” value metrics simply rotate in profitability exposure, not better value information. (26:17) Roughly half of US value’s post-2007 underperformance is explained by its negative correlation with profitability. (28:42) Industry tilts (e.g., energy/financials vs. tech/healthcare) drive much of value’s volatility—not its long-term return. (30:33) The theoretical case for combining clean valuation (price-to-book) with clean expected cash flow (profitability). (33:36) Academic implications: models must jointly explain value and profitability—and their negative correlation. (35:09) Practitioner implications: parsimony—use clear valuation and cash-flow measures, limit excessive complexity. (36:53) How Dimensional measures profitability: operating profitability (revenue – COGS – SG&A – interest) scaled by book equity. (41:09) Why tilting toward or away from countries based on aggregate characteristics rarely adds value—premiums come from stocks, not countries. (42:57) Industry-level tilts show similar patterns—industry momentum exists but is impractical due to massive turnover. (46:15) How Dimensional handles country and industry weights: sort within countries, then apply sector caps. (48:27) Private markets: private funds make up roughly 10% of the global investable universe—not 25–100% as sometimes claimed. (50:53) Benchmark choice for private funds is crucial—S&P 500 is not appropriate for buyouts or VCs. (52:00) Using KSPME (public-market equivalent), buyouts and VCs match small-cap value/growth benchmarks; private credit matches high yield; private real estate underperforms listed real estate. (55:50) Factor exposures post-2007 explain 70–80% of private-fund return variation due to fair-value accounting. (1:00:48) Wide dispersion in private-fund performance—top 5% double or triple capital; bottom 5% lose half. (1:03:49) Little evidence of manager persistence—manager selection must rely on due diligence, not past vintages. (1:08:24) No strong time trend in private-fund outperformance, but correlations with public markets have increased. (1:09:13) Many diversification benefits historically attributed to private assets were actually illiquidity-driven smoothing. (1:12:25) Rising demand and democratization likely reduce expected returns in private markets—exclusivity is fading. Links From Today’s Episode: Meet with PWL Capital: Rational Reminder on iTunes — . Rational Reminder on Instagram — Rational Reminder on YouTube — Benjamin Felix — Benjamin on X — Benjamin on LinkedIn — Cameron Passmore — Cameron on X — Cameron on LinkedIn — Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com) /episode/index/show/rationalreminder/id/39089680

Episode 383: AMA #10 - Dollar cost averaging & mutual funds vs. ETFs 11/13/2025

Episode 383: AMA #10 - Dollar cost averaging & mutual funds vs. ETFs In this episode of Rational Reminder, Ben Felix, Cameron Passmore, and Ben Wilson return with a classic AMA format—answering listener questions that dig deep into the behavioral and evidence-based foundations of sensible investing. From lump-sum investing to the psychology of advice, the trio blend data, humor, and clear thinking to demystify complex financial ideas. They discuss the behavioral logic behind dollar-cost averaging, why mutual funds might actually be more tax-efficient than ETFs in Canada, and whether technology could ever truly replace human financial advisors. Plus, they share their biggest investing mistakes (yes, Bitcoin makes an appearance), dissect the rise of “buffered” ETFs, and explain why chasing complexity usually costs investors more than it helps. Key Points From This Episode: (0:00:05) Introduction – The first episode featuring all three hosts together: Ben Felix, Cameron Passmore, and Ben Wilson. (0:44) OneDigital update: expanding evidence-based advice across Canada with new PWL partners in Halifax. (2:36) The mission in motion – bringing the “markets work and planning matters” philosophy to more Canadians. (5:29) “Finding and funding a good life” – how PWL integrates wellness and happiness into financial planning. (6:16) AMA Question 1: Lump-sum vs. dollar-cost averaging — why lump-sum wins 65% of the time. (10:05) Base rates, behavioral regret, and the real role of an advisor. (12:22) The 2020 PWL paper results and how behavioral hedging fits in. (16:10) If dollar-cost averaging feels safer, maybe your portfolio is too aggressive. (18:08) AMA Question 2: Advice for smaller portfolios — how technology, AI, and fee-only planners can fill the gap. (21:01) Can AI really replace advisors? Cameron’s Waymo analogy sparks debate. (23:33) AMA Question 3: Mutual funds vs. ETFs — why in Canada, mutual funds may actually be more tax-efficient. (30:00) The Capital Gains Refund Mechanism (CGRM) explained — and why it matters. (34:31) Dimensional’s Canadian funds vs. Vanguard ETFs — tax distribution data that surprises most investors. (37:40) AMA Question 4: Are discount bonds priced for tax efficiency? The evidence says no—discount bonds still win. (42:23) AMA Question 5: Biggest investment mistakes — from Bitcoin regrets to house-buying reflections. (48:15) AMA Question 6: Buffered ETFs — comfort, complexity, and why simple portfolios outperform. (53:45) Simplicity as a superpower — why “markets work” is still the most radical idea in finance. (55:27) AMA Question 7: Updating the RR model portfolio — why there’s no “optimal” portfolio and simplicity wins again. (58:31) After show: Reviews, humor, and a reminder about “No Net Worth November.” (1:04:15) Life offline — Cameron’s reflections on quitting social media and finding clarity. Links From Today’s Episode: Meet with PWL Capital: Rational Reminder on iTunes — . Rational Reminder Website — Rational Reminder on Instagram — Rational Reminder on X — Rational Reminder on TikTok — Rational Reminder on YouTube — Rational Reminder Email — Benjamin Felix — Benjamin on X — Benjamin on LinkedIn — Cameron Passmore — Cameron on X — Cameron on LinkedIn — Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com) /episode/index/show/rationalreminder/id/39002100

Episode 382: Ted Cadsby - The Power of Index Funds, and Being Human 11/06/2025

Episode 382: Ted Cadsby - The Power of Index Funds, and Being Human In this episode, Ben, Cameron, and Dan are joined by Ted Cadsby, former executive at CIBC, author of The Power of Index Funds, Closing the Mind Gap, and Hard to Be Human. Ted brings a rare combination of experience in both finance and cognitive psychology, having helped introduce index investing to Canada before turning his attention to how human thinking itself often misleads us. Ted shares inside stories from his time at CIBC—how he tried to make the bank an indexing leader in the late 1990s, the pushback he faced, and why he still believes so deeply in indexing today. Then, the conversation turns to human cognition: why our brains evolved for simplicity, certainty, and emotion, and how those traits can sabotage both our portfolios and our peace of mind. From “greedy reductionism” and “certainty addiction” to emotional overreaction and competing selves, Ted unpacks the five cognitive design flaws that make it hard to be human—and how metacognition and mindfulness can help us overcome them. Key Points From This Episode: (0:04) Introduction to the Rational Reminder Podcast and hosts. (0:18) Cameron’s story about rediscovering The Power of Index Funds and reconnecting with Ted Cadsby. (2:21) How Ted brought index investing to CIBC and tried to make the bank a leader in indexing. (5:58) Why assessing active managers taught Ted about randomness, noise, and the illusion of skill. (8:42) The moment Ted “saw the light” on indexing—and why randomness, not market efficiency, is the real obstacle for active managers. (12:54) How Ted tried to implement index investing at CIBC and the cultural resistance he faced. (15:05) The goals of The Power of Index Funds (1999) and how he tied indexing to human behavior. (18:49) How his indexing push created internal conflict at CIBC and ultimately led to his departure. (23:23) The influence of John Bogle and Vanguard on Ted’s mission to bring indexing to Canada. (26:59) Why he’s still passionate about indexing, and what worries him about private equity. (31:44) How human cognition and philosophy led him from finance to exploring how we think. (34:46) The “Big Five” cognitive design flaws that shape human decision-making: 1. Greedy reductionism – our urge to oversimplify complex systems. 2. Certainty addiction – craving the feeling of knowing, even when we’re wrong. 3. Emotional hostage-taking – overreacting and ruminating. 4. Competing selves – inner conflicts between present and future selves. 5. Misguided search for meaning – overextending our need for purpose. (44:11) Why modern life amplifies these flaws and how System 1 (automatic) and System 2 (deliberate) thinking play into it. (48:00) The human superpower: metacognition—our ability to think about thinking. (49:57) How mindfulness and a “meditative stance” help us use metacognition daily. (53:57) Why knowing your biases isn’t enough—emotional regulation is the real challenge. (56:27) How to recognize triggers for deeper reflection and System 2 thinking. (1:00:34) How systems thinking and better questions can combat our reductionist tendencies. (1:05:57) Why our addiction to certainty fuels overconfidence and poor decisions. (1:08:43) How humility, probabilistic thinking, and skepticism can make us wiser investors and humans. (1:11:39) When to listen to emotions—and when to treat them as cognitive red flags. Links From Today’s Episode: Meet with PWL Capital: Rational Reminder on iTunes — . Rational Reminder Website — Rational Reminder on Instagram — Rational Reminder on X — Rational Reminder on TikTok — Rational Reminder on YouTube — Rational Reminder Email — Benjamin Felix — Benjamin on X — Benjamin on LinkedIn — Dan Bortolotti — Dan Bortolotti on LinkedIn — Cameron Passmore — Cameron on X — Cameron on LinkedIn — Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant () /episode/index/show/rationalreminder/id/38925765

Episode 381: Investing 101 10/30/2025

Episode 381: Investing 101 In this special Investing 101 episode, the Rational Reminder hosts—Ben Felix, Dan Bortolotti, and Ben Wilson—team up to revisit the fundamental concepts that every investor should understand before diving deep into portfolio construction or market theory. Drawing from Ben’s original “Investing 101” presentation and years of client experience, the trio lay out why investing matters, how inflation shapes your future, what stocks and bonds really represent, and why a disciplined, evidence-based approach beats prediction and luck every time. They unpack core ideas like financial independence, risk versus volatility, global diversification, and market efficiency, then connect them to practical tools like ETFs and Vanguard’s asset allocation funds. Key Points From This Episode: (0:00:24) Why this episode revisits “Investing 101”—inspired by a listener still unsure how to begin. (0:05:03) Why investing matters: inflation erodes purchasing power, investing fights back. (0:06:33) The math of compounding: how a 7% return versus 2% changes your retirement entirely. (0:10:57) Saving early and often: habit formation beats late-life catch-up. (0:11:53) The trade-off between saving more and taking more investment risk. (0:14:04) Utility theory and the psychology of saving when young. (0:16:39) Marginal utility: when more money no longer adds happiness or purpose. (0:20:47) Stocks and bonds explained: ownership versus lending and the role of each. (0:23:11) The Japan story: a cautionary tale about chasing past winners. (0:26:49) Narrative investing: why investors love stories and get burned by them. (0:30:19) Market capitalization weighting—how global prices tell you what to own. (0:33:42) The stock market is not the economy: why news headlines mislead investors. (0:37:14) The power of diversification: why most individual stocks fail—and a few drive all returns. (0:41:56) Bonds, volatility, and inflation risk—why “safe” assets aren’t risk-free. (0:44:41) Building your mix: matching volatility tolerance with long-term goals. (0:45:10) The behavioral challenge: risk is only useful if you can stay invested. (0:48:08) Active management as gambling: adding unrewarded noise to your portfolio. (0:51:43) The paradox of skill: why markets punish even brilliant active managers. (0:55:51) Efficient markets and Eugene Fama: the evidence that prices already reflect all information. (1:00:20) How small fees compound into big losses over decades. (1:03:07) The behavioral hurdle of indexing: trusting a system with “no one at the wheel.” (1:04:54) The real value of financial advice: behavior, discipline, and holistic planning. (1:07:24) Implementing the plan: how asset allocation ETFs simplify everything. (1:11:41) Rebalancing and emotion: why automation protects investors from themselves. (1:14:24) Paying a bit more for simplicity: why 0.10% in fees can be worth it. Links From Today’s Episode: Meet with PWL Capital: Rational Reminder on iTunes — . Rational Reminder Website — Rational Reminder on Instagram — Rational Reminder on X — Rational Reminder on TikTok — Rational Reminder on YouTube — Rational Reminder Email — Benjamin Felix — Benjamin on X — Benjamin on LinkedIn — Dan Bortolotti — Dan Bortolotti on LinkedIn — Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com) /episode/index/show/rationalreminder/id/38826570

Episode 380: John Y. Campbell - Fixing Personal Finance 10/23/2025

Episode 380: John Y. Campbell - Fixing Personal Finance What if capitalism itself is confusing your personal finance decisions? In this week’s episode, Harvard economist John Y. Campbell joins us to unpack his new book, Fixed: Why Personal Finance Is Broken and How to Make It Work for Everyone, co-authored with Tarun Ramadorai. John argues that the financial system—while essential—is failing ordinary people through complexity, hidden costs, and misplaced incentives. Drawing on decades of research in household finance, he explains why products are too expensive, advice too conflicted, and decisions too difficult, and how policy and design can fix it. Key Points From This Episode: (0:04) Introduction – Rational Reminder’s focus on sensible investing and decision-making. (1:46) Why Canadian finance feels broken: complexity, branding, and lack of competition. (4:53) Introducing John Y. Campbell and his new book Fixed. (5:43) The role of the financial system in everyday life: smoothing income, enabling investment, and managing risk. (7:14) The two main problems in modern finance—products are too complicated and too expensive. (9:17) Why financial decisions are so hard: our brains didn’t evolve for math, and temptation bias wins. (11:36) How far financial literacy education really helps—and its limits for inequality. (14:26) The “corruption of capitalism”: how capitalists exploit consumer confusion and misperceived value. (18:15) Cross-subsidies: how the mistakes of the poor often subsidize the wealthy. (21:05) Competition only works when consumers can compare price and quality. (22:15) Financial innovation—when technology helps vs. when it deceives. (24:24) Conflicts of interest in advice: why “trusted” advisors often don’t act in clients’ best interests. (26:26) Why loyal, long-term bank customers often get worse deals. (27:20) The illusion of opting out: why avoiding finance (or choosing crypto) is “jumping out of the frying pan into the fire.” (30:24) The global emergency-savings problem—why volatility hits the poor hardest. (32:26) Is college worth it? Returns, costs, and who actually benefits. (35:47) How to think rationally about buying versus renting a home. (38:16) Housing in retirement—why reverse mortgages make sense but are misunderstood. (40:25) Mortgage mistakes: not shopping, not refinancing, and the racial gap that results. (44:41) Using utility theory to make better insurance and investment choices. (46:55) Principles for investing in stocks: participate, diversify, minimize fees, and ignore short-term noise. (48:24) How real investor behavior deviates from these principles—chasing returns and confusing investing with gambling. (51:17) Insurance mistakes: overinsuring small risks, underinsuring big ones. (54:11) How much to save for retirement—and how most people fall short. (55:40) Lifecycle investing: why target-date funds are good but could be better. (57:56) Why annuities make sense, and how better framing could make them more popular. (59:30) Technology’s double edge: lower costs but higher temptation and discrimination. (1:02:17) Lessons from crypto: why stablecoins matter and what regulators should learn. (1:05:26) From nudge to shove: how governments should actively design simpler, safer products. (1:10:02) Where regulation goes too far—and why governments shouldn’t run finance directly. (1:13:10) Priority areas for reform: retirement accounts, transaction accounts, and insurance. (1:14:49) The four design principles for a better system: simple, cheap, safe, easy. Links From Today’s Episode: Meet with PWL Capital: Rational Reminder on iTunes — . Rational Reminder Website — Rational Reminder on Instagram — Rational Reminder on X — Rational Reminder on TikTok — Rational Reminder on YouTube — Rational Reminder Email — Benjamin Felix — Benjamin on X — Benjamin on LinkedIn — Cameron Passmore — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/ Cameron on X — https://x.com/CameronPassmore Cameron on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/cameronpassmore/ Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com) /episode/index/show/rationalreminder/id/38735430

Episode 379: AMA #9: Covered Call ETFs, Currency Hedging, and Bond Misconceptions 10/16/2025

Episode 379: AMA #9: Covered Call ETFs, Currency Hedging, and Bond Misconceptions In this AMA episode of the Rational Reminder Podcast, Ben Felix and Dan Bortolotti return to answer listener questions across a wide range of topics—from covered call ETFs and dividend tax credits to currency hedging, bond mechanics, leverage, and career reflections. They open with a striking quote from Harvard economist John Campbell on how markets cater to perceived benefits rather than real ones—a perfect setup for their recent discussions on the rise of covered call ETFs. Key Points From This Episode: (0:59) John Campbell’s quote on capitalism’s tendency to meet perceived rather than rational needs—and how that perfectly describes the financial industry. (3:44) Covered calls as the perfect example: products that respond to investor demand for yield, not what’s actually in their best interest. (4:49) Dan compares income-chasing in covered call ETFs to Apple’s marketing genius—except in finance, the benefits flow mostly to issuers, not investors. (5:48) Why dividend bias was relatively harmless, but the covered call craze is not—and how new ETFs “multiply like rabbits.” (7:46) Ben’s analysis: in every example studied, covered call investors ended up with less wealth than those holding the underlying equities. (8:13) The hidden trade-off: holding covered call ETFs is like keeping 25–30% of your portfolio in cash for a decade. (9:33) Lighter interlude: Dan teases Ben about his lentil (and later cabbage) lunches. (9:59) First AMA question: Are domestic dividend tax credits already priced into stock valuations? (Short answer: partially, depending on investor composition.) (12:13) Why even if tax benefits are “priced in,” Canadians with favorable tax rates still come out ahead. (15:58) Hedging currencies in commodity economies like Canada and Australia—when it helps, when it hurts, and why there’s no perfect answer. (18:48) Dan explains why unhedged portfolios can actually be less volatile for Canadians and why most hedging is imprecise and costly in practice. (20:03) Behavioral perspective: splitting the difference between hedged and unhedged can be the “strategy of least regret.” (21:06) Bonds demystified—why falling prices during rising rates affect funds and individual bonds equally. (22:22) Understanding duration: bond ETFs are designed to stay at a target maturity, while individual bonds age toward zero duration. (26:03) How rising yields actually improve financial plans by boosting future expected returns. (29:08) Choosing the right bond fund duration based on your time horizon and liabilities. (33:39) Are recent bond losses an anomaly? Ben and Dan explain how decades of falling rates created unrealistic expectations. (36:21) The role of unexpected rate changes in bond volatility—and why central banks don’t control long-term yields. (38:01) Market-cap weighting: why it remains the most defensible way to allocate across countries and sectors. (41:48) What’s changed their thinking after six years of Rational Reminder—from Scott Cederberg’s asset allocation data to the behavioral power of homeownership. (45:13) The Horizons/Global X ETF debate: how swap-based, corporate-class structures create tax efficiency—and why that efficiency could vanish. (50:42) Why PWL avoids these products: potential hidden tax liabilities and lack of transparency for clients. (54:31) Borrowing to invest: Ben outlines why leverage works in theory—but Dan explains why most investors shouldn’t touch it. (57:25) New “modest leverage” ETFs (125% exposure) as a more behavioral-friendly version of borrowing to invest. (1:00:36) Fulfillment and frustration in finance: helping people achieve peace of mind vs. seeing deception still rampant in the industry. (1:03:09) Five years of Vanguard’s all-in-one ETFs (like VEQT): how they’ve delivered exactly what they promised and reshaped DIY investing in Canada. (1:07:47) Why these “one-ticket” portfolios remain the biggest innovation in Canadian investing—and why global diversification matters more than ever. (1:08:50) Revisiting bonds in retirement: what to expect when they don’t offset stock volatility, and how to rethink risk management beyond yield-chasing. Links From Today’s Episode: Meet with PWL Capital: Rational Reminder on iTunes — . Rational Reminder Website — Rational Reminder on Instagram — Rational Reminder on X — Rational Reminder on TikTok — Rational Reminder on YouTube — Rational Reminder Email — Benjamin Felix — Benjamin on X — Benjamin on LinkedIn — Dan Bortolotti — Dan Bortolotti on LinkedIn — Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com) /episode/index/show/rationalreminder/id/38593335

Episode 378: Learning from Market History 10/09/2025

Episode 378: Learning from Market History In this episode, we are joined by Mark Higgins, an award-winning author and institutional investment advisor, to discuss the power and importance of studying US financial history. Mark brings his wealth of knowledge as a financial historian to the show as he shares the value of studying financial history, the role the financial system plays in the overall success of the US, and the impact Alexander Hamilton made on the country. We unpack government debt, the concerning levels of it in America, and the impact of having a central bank before discussing what happens, historically, when a bank is unregulated. Mark describes some early warning signs of a bubble, touches on the historical origins of flawed financial practices, and shares some important lessons we can learn from the history of the US financial system. Hear all about alternative asset classes, evergreen funds, and red flags in the private market. Finally, our guest tells us how he defines his own personal and professional success. This conversation sheds light on the history of finance in the USA and how we can learn from it, so be sure to tune in now! Key Points From This Episode: (0:00:00) An introduction to Mark Higgins and an overview of today’s topics of discussion. (0:04:16) The value of studying financial history and the role the financial system plays in the USA as a whole. (0:06:33) Why Alexander Hamilton stands out in US financial history and the importance of government debt. (0:09:29) Mark discusses the concerning debt levels in America and the impact of having a central bank. (0:12:29) What happens when banking is unregulated, and key themes across major US financial depressions. (0:16:48) Some early warning signs of a bubble and the problematic nature of speculation and comparison. (0:19:42) Historical parallels for crypto and meme stocks and the historical origin of flawed practices in the investment industry. (0:24:27) Mark shares some of the most important lessons we can learn from US financial history and what we may have to relearn in the future. (0:27:41) Alternative asset classes, why so much has been allocated to them in recent history, and how modern portfolio theory is abused in the promotion of alternative investments. (0:33:56) Mark shares his thoughts on ‘evergreen funds’, why they are so flawed, and their effects. (0:39:51) The biggest red flags in private markets today and what he thinks will happen if retail starts taking up private assets. (0:43:03) How often Mark sees institutions being sold alternatives, and why trustees of these institutions have to be different. (0:49:23) Mark tells us how he defines success in his life on a personal and professional level. Links From Today’s Episode: Meet with PWL Capital: Rational Reminder on iTunes — . Rational Reminder Website — Rational Reminder on Instagram — Rational Reminder on X — Rational Reminder on TikTok — Rational Reminder on YouTube — Rational Reminder Email — Benjamin Felix — Benjamin on X — Benjamin on LinkedIn — Cameron Passmore — Cameron on X — Cameron on LinkedIn — Mark Higgins on LinkedIn — Books From Today’s Episode: Investing in US Financial History: Understanding the Past to Forecast the Future — Security Analysis — Pioneering Portfolio Management — Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com). /episode/index/show/rationalreminder/id/38512650

Episode 377: Investing in Your Health 10/02/2025

Episode 377: Investing in Your Health Your health may well be the most important investment you ever make, and the earlier you start, the better your outcomes are likely to be. In this episode, Ben Felix is joined by Ben Wilson, Portfolio Manager and Head of M&A at PWL Capital, who steps in as today’s co-host to unpack why decisions about exercise, nutrition, sleep, and mental well-being matter just as much as financial ones. They draw clear parallels between compounding wealth and compounding health, showing how small, consistent habits can add up to lasting benefits. Choosing an exercise routine, healthy diet, or financial plan is less about quick fixes and more about finding an evidence-based approach you can stick with over time. Along the way, Ben Felix shares his personal health story with cancer, and the two Bens break down the four pillars of health before reflecting on how relationships and resilience play into long-term happiness. The episode also tackles an essential financial planning topic: the questions every client should ask about their advisor’s succession plan. Listen in for a thoughtful conversation that connects the dots between living well and planning wisely! Key Points From This Episode: (0:00:00) An introduction to Ben Wilson and an overview of today’s topics. (0:02:01) Breaking down OneDigital’s $7 billion recapitalization (and why it’s a good thing). (0:08:26) Recapitalizations explained: liquidity, valuations, and continuity. (0:15:08) Introducing the main theme: investing in health like investing in wealth. (0:19:30) An update on Ben Felix’s cancer story and the importance of early health checks. (0:21:13) Investing in your lifespan and your healthspan by building healthy habits. (0:29:35) Four pillars of health: exercise, nutrition, sleep, and mental well-being. (0:33:39) Similarities between strength training and saving for retirement: both build reserves. (0:39:34) Debates surrounding nutrition and enduring principles that are broadly agreed on. (0:44:44) The importance of good sleep and how to build good sleep habits. (0:47:46) Why investing in mental health and relationships is so valuable. (0:52:06) The ripple effect: how sleep, nutrition, exercise, and relationships reinforce each other. (0:54:04) Key questions to ask about your financial advisor’s succession plan. (01:08:44) After show segment: listener review, west coast meetups, and 2026 meetup plans. Links From Today’s Episode: Meet with PWL Capital: Rational Reminder on iTunes — Rational Reminder Website — Rational Reminder on Instagram — Rational Reminder on X — Rational Reminder on TikTok— Rational Reminder on YouTube — Rational Reminder Email — Benjamin Felix — Benjamin on X — Benjamin on LinkedIn — Cameron Passmore — Cameron on X — Cameron on LinkedIn — Ben Wilson on LinkedIn — Books From Today’s Episode: Outlive: The Science and Art of Longevity — The Power of Regret: How Looking Backward Moves Us Forward — The Ripple Effect — Papers From Today’s Episode: ‘Trends in Health Equity in the United States by Race/Ethnicity, Sex, and Income, 1993-2017’ — ‘Association of Cardiorespiratory Fitness With Long-term Mortality Among Adults Undergoing Exercise Treadmill Testing’ — Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (). /episode/index/show/rationalreminder/id/38411180

Episode 376: Climbing The Wealth Ladder 09/25/2025

Episode 376: Climbing The Wealth Ladder Are your financial decisions evolving as your wealth grows? In this episode of the Rational Reminder Podcast, we welcome back Nick Maggiulli to unpack his approach to climbing the wealth ladder and creating the life you want. Nick is the Chief Operating Officer at Ritholtz Wealth Management, the author of The Wealth Ladder and Just Keep Buying, and creator of the blog Of Dollars and Data. He is renowned for his ability to take the complexity out of finance and for his deep knowledge of investing. In our conversation, Nick explains his new framework for building wealth in his new book, The Wealth Ladder, and he unpacks how spending, income, and investing should change from one level to the next. He breaks down his .01% and 1% rules for spending and income, how the opportunity cost of time changes with wealth, and what the data reveals about income, wealth, and asset composition between different levels. Nick also shares strategies to progress between levels, insights on the challenges of extreme wealth, and why focusing on non-financial forms of wealth is important. Join us for a practical, data-driven framework for thinking about financial decisions and what truly constitutes ‘enough’ with Nick Maggiulli! Key Points From This Episode: (0:00:00) Nick Maggiull, his new book, and his background at Ritholtz Wealth Management. (0:03:48) The Wealth Ladder, its different levels, and why he thinks the concept is important. (0:06:59) Hear about the 0.01% rule for spending, and examples of The Wealth Ladder levels. (0:12:09) Unpack the 1% rule and how the opportunity cost of time changes up the ladder. (0:15:00) Explore how income determines wealth and how to move up and down the ladder. (0:19:47) Which level is the most common to fall, and how wealth changes up the ladder. (0:22:34) What shifting wealth composition indicates and how to move from level one to two. (0:25:48) When education should be the focus, and what it takes to move out of level three. (0:29:41) Discover the pros and cons of a side hustle and why controlled spending is crucial. (0:33:32) Learn the key to reaching level five and why people fall out of levels four and five. (0:39:20) Insights on the downsides of extreme wealth and how it impacts lifestyle. (0:42:54) How long it takes to climb the ladder and the correlation between age and wealth. (0:46:10) Why financial persistence is vital and what a typical millionaire household looks like. (0:49:00) Find out what constitutes ‘enough’ financially and examples of other forms of wealth. (0:51:56) Nick shares what he hopes readers will take away from the book and how it impacted his view of success. Links From Today’s Episode: Meet with PWL Capital: Rational Reminder on iTunes — . Rational Reminder Website — Rational Reminder on Instagram — Rational Reminder on X — Rational Reminder on TikTok — Rational Reminder on YouTube — Rational Reminder Email — Benjamin Felix — Benjamin on X — Benjamin on LinkedIn — Cameron Passmore — Cameron on X — Cameron on LinkedIn — Nick Maggiulli — Nick Maggiulli on LinkedIn — Nick Maggiulli on Twitter — Nick Maggiulli on Instagram — Ritholtz Wealth Management — Episode 145: Jennifer Risher: Talking About Money — Episode 255: Structured Products — The Panel Survey of Income Dynamics (PSID) — Preston Holland on X — Books From Today’s Episode: Just Keep Buying — The Wealth Ladder — Portfolios of the Poor — The 5 Types of Wealth — Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant /episode/index/show/rationalreminder/id/38326265

Episode 375: Covered Calls: A Devil's Bargain 09/18/2025

Episode 375: Covered Calls: A Devil's Bargain In this episode, Ben and Dan take a deep dive into covered call strategies—popular ETFs often marketed on their eye-catching distribution yields. While these products promise steady “income,” the reality is more complicated. Drawing on recent research from the Journal of Alternative Investments (“A Devil’s Bargain: When Generating Income Undermines Investment Returns”), Ben and Dan unpack why covered calls often reduce expected returns, cap the upside of equities, and leave investors fully exposed to the downside. They explain how covered calls work, why yields are misleadingly presented as “income,” and why long-term investors may find themselves worse off over time compared to simply holding equities or combining equities with cash. The conversation covers live fund performance, behavioral biases that drive demand for yield, and the rise of extreme products like single-stock covered call ETFs with 40%+ “yields.” While covered calls may offer psychological appeal for investors who crave distributions, the evidence shows they often deliver lower total returns, higher costs, and asymmetric risk. If it sounds too good to be true, it probably is—and nowhere is that clearer than in the world of covered call ETFs. Key Points From This Episode: (0:01:09) Why “14% yield” claims on covered call funds are misleading. (0:02:35) Revisiting covered calls: “A Devil’s Bargain” and new research insights. (0:05:24) The deep-seated investor preference for income—and how fund companies exploit it. (0:10:10) What a call option is and how it caps upside while leaving downside intact. (0:14:53) Why selling calls lowers expected returns and distorts stock return patterns. (0:20:25) The volatility risk premium: theory versus retail investor reality. (0:22:17) How crowded trades since 2011 erased much of the benefit of covered calls. (0:24:56) Why stocks’ mean reversion makes covered calls especially damaging for long-term investors. (0:28:11) The illusion of “income”: distributions versus true total returns. (0:34:41) Evidence from live funds: BMO utilities and banks covered call ETFs. (0:40:53) Underperformance across rolling periods—covered calls vs. their underlying. (0:46:17) JEPI and cult-like covered call products: big marketing, poor long-term results. (0:47:36) The rise of single-stock covered call ETFs—and why they’re worse. (0:53:45) Higher costs: MERs and trading expenses add to the drag. (0:57:25) Why marketing yields as “income” is financial BS. (0:58:47) Final verdict: covered calls are more likely to harm than help investors’ outcomes. Links From Today’s Episode: Meet with PWL Capital: Rational Reminder on iTunes — . Rational Reminder Website — Rational Reminder on Instagram — Rational Reminder on X — Rational Reminder on TikTok — Rational Reminder on YouTube — Rational Reminder Email — Benjamin Felix — Benjamin on X — Benjamin on LinkedIn — Dan Bortolotti — Dan Bortolotti on LinkedIn — Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant /episode/index/show/rationalreminder/id/38241130

Episode 374: The Underperformance of Target Date Funds 09/11/2025

Episode 374: The Underperformance of Target Date Funds In this episode, we’re joined by David C. Brown, Associate Professor of Finance at the University of Arizona, for a deep dive into the mechanics, performance, and pitfalls of target date funds (TDFs)—the most common investment vehicle in U.S. retirement accounts. David has spent years researching glide paths, benchmarking methods, and industry practices to uncover whether these “set it and forget it” funds actually serve investors well. We unpack why benchmarking TDFs is so difficult, what really drives their underperformance, and how tactical deviations from strategic glide paths often harm investors. David explains how fees, active management, and fund structure combine to create persistent drag—and why dispersion across TDF providers is shockingly wide. We also discuss behavioral challenges, the influence of glide path design, and whether innovations like “indexing the indexers” could improve outcomes. David also shares insights on his side project, the Microsoft Excel Collegiate Challenge, where students compete in gamified problem-solving competitions (yes, Excel on ESPN!), and reflects on his own definition of success. This conversation sheds light on a massively important—but often misunderstood—corner of the retirement landscape, giving investors and plan sponsors practical tools to demand better. Key Points From This Episode: (0:05:20) What a Qualified Default Investment Alternative (QDIA) is and why TDFs became the default in 2006. (0:05:50) How target date funds work as “one-stop shops” for retirement savings. (0:07:12) The glide path concept: why equity allocations decrease with age. (0:08:04) Why comparing TDFs is hard—fund families design glide paths differently. (0:10:37) David’s benchmarking approach: replicating TDFs with index funds. (0:15:13) The performance gap: ~1% annual underperformance versus replicating benchmarks. (0:15:50) Main culprits: higher fees (~55 bps) and poor active management (~45 bps). (0:18:20) Good news: costs have declined—but dispersion across providers remains massive. (0:20:09) Evidence of wild return differences: up to 23% in a single month across vintages. (0:21:32) Why plan sponsors and investors aren’t reacting to poor performance. (0:25:33) The debate over optimal glide paths—and why the jury is still out. (0:29:15) Tactical deviations: managers shifting allocations beyond the strategic design. (0:33:06) These tactical moves hurt performance (~10 bps on average). (0:35:49) Evidence of return chasing in TDF management. (0:39:07) Big picture: TDFs are a huge improvement over money market defaults, but dispersion and inefficiency remain. (0:42:48) David’s views on Scott Cederberg’s 100% equity lifecycle portfolio research. (0:45:22) Behavioral challenges: why defaults and illiquidity may help investors stay the course. (0:50:57) The Microsoft Excel Collegiate Challenge—Excel as an esport. (0:52:50) How David defines success: balance, impact, and growth. Links From Today’s Episode: Meet with PWL Capital: Rational Reminder on iTunes — . Rational Reminder Website — Rational Reminder on Instagram — Rational Reminder on X — Rational Reminder on TikTok — Rational Reminder on YouTube — Rational Reminder Email — Benjamin Felix — Benjamin on X — Benjamin on LinkedIn — Cameron Passmore — Cameron on X — Cameron on LinkedIn — Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com) /episode/index/show/rationalreminder/id/38132280

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