#98 - Consumers Are Uncertain of the Future
Daybreak with Anton
Last week the released their monthly report on consumer sentiment. For the May report, the mid-month results indicate a preliminary consumer sentiment index of 67.4 that was revised up to 69.1 for the final May reading. May is below the April’s final reading of 77.2. Listen in this issue our analysis of this report and the potential insight to the future of the economy and stock market.
info_outline
#97 - Stock Market Rolls On
Daybreak with Anton
The Federal Reserve raised the discount interest rate 11 times since March 2022. The last rate increase was in July 2023 as the CPI trended down from its peak and currently the CPI annualized rate for April was reported last week at 3.4% by the How will investors respond with their investment activity as we approach this year’s controversial Presidential election? Listen in this Weekly Brief our views on the interest rate market, the election, and the potential for the stock market.
info_outline
#96 - Small Business Owners Still Glum
Daybreak with Anton
Today the (NFIB) released their April report of the small business optimism index. The index ticked up to 89.7 from 88.5 reading in March which was ahead of general Econoday forecaster consensus. Small business owners have struggled significantly since the coronavirus outbreak that has been reflected by the dramatic drop in the optimism index. The optimism index has been below the 50-year average of 98 for the past 28 consecutive months. Read in this Weekly Brief our analysis of this report and investment opportunities in the future.
info_outline
#95 - Secrets to Building Wealth
Daybreak with Anton
Why do some investors build wealth consistently over time while many have little to show in growth after years of investing? In this Weekly Brief, we dive into the various practices and policies of investment advisors and why the guidance of some will result in years of underperformance of their client accounts.
info_outline
#94 - Consumers Earning and Spending More
Daybreak with Anton
Yesterday the released its monthly report on consumer income and spending. The report indicated that personal income rose 0.05% and has increased each month now for 24 consecutive months which is good news for households and the economy. In this Weekly Brief we review this report and how it may impact the stock market and investors.
info_outline
#93 - Housing Navigating Through High Interest Rates
Daybreak with Anton
The reported today that March housing starts plummeted 14.7% month over month (MoM) to 1.321 million. This reverses February MoM gain with March’s new starts the lowest since August 2023 and biggest decline since April 2020. What does this mean for the housing market and will it impact the stock market. Listen in this issue our view on this report and the potential impact on the US economy.
info_outline
#92 - Rebound in Retail Sales
Daybreak with Anton
Therefore, to understand the financial health of the US we need to look no further than to monitor the financial health of households and consumers. To simplify the US economic equation is simply: People working = people spending = economic activity In this issue we review today’s Retail Sales report and evaluate the financial health of consumers and the probability of continued expansion of the US economy.
info_outline
#91 - More Good News.... Darn
Daybreak with Anton
The media and analysts are back to the good news is bad news routine. Meaning that when economic news is positive then the potential of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates declines. Read in this Weekly Brief our review of several key benchmarks on the economy and the prospects the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates soon.
info_outline
#90 - Movement of Money
Daybreak with Anton
One economic indicator we monitor is the US Purchasers Manufacturing Index (PMI). This index is based on monthly questionnaire surveys of selected companies that offer an advance indication on month-to-month activity in the private sector economy. This index tracks changes in variables such as production, new orders, stock levels, employment, and prices across manufacturing industries. Historically, when the PMI index is above 50 it represents a growing manufacturing industry and below 50 indicates contraction. Listen to this Weekly Brief the results of the recently released...
info_outline
#89 - Housing and the Stock Market
Daybreak with Anton
The start of new construction housing increased 10.7% to 1.521 million units month-over-month to an annualized rate in February after falling 12.3% in January. The February increase was well above the consensus of 1.449 million units in the Econoday’s survey of forecasters. Read in this Weekly Brief our analysis of the improving housing market and whether it is a precursor to the future of the stock market.
info_outlineMixed news this week as factory orders continue to increase with one of the longest consecutive run of monthly increases since 1992. However, the ISM Purchasing Managers Index dropped below 50 to 49 yesterday based on surveys among purchasing managers. A reading below 50 would indicate the potential of a decline in future of new orders. No doubt, business leaders are taking notice of rising interest rates and prices and implementing precautions should the US economy slow faster than projected. All this to say, is the most anticipated recession forecasted for 2023 indicates a low bar of expectations for next year that may result in pleasant surprises should conditions not be as dire as analysts’ project.