Diddy’s Reality If Convicted – Former Federal Prisoner Explains
Release Date: 07/02/2025
White Collar Advice
George Santos told Tucker Carlson, "I don’t think I survive this." CNN asked me if that fear was justified. I’ve served time in federal prison, and over the last 15 years, our team has worked with thousands of people getting ready to surrender—people from all backgrounds, including high-profile defendants like Santos. He’s reporting to a minimum-security camp, not a violent facility. But fear isn’t unusual. What’s unusual is how public he’s been about it—and how little he’s done to prepare. In this segment, I break down: – Why fear isn’t the problem—lack of preparation...
info_outlineWhite Collar Advice
Share the Progress—Don’t Just Ask for Leniency Judges hear promises at sentencing all the time—but most defendants don’t follow through. One member of our community did. He documented his daily prison routine, reported what he was learning, and shared how he was preparing to live responsibly and repay victims. His consistency paid off: a judge resentenced him to time served under the First Step Act. The takeaway? Don’t wait until you want something. Build a record. Share it. Show it. That’s how you earn trust—and liberty. Join our every Tuesday at 11AM Pacific / 2PM Eastern to...
info_outlineWhite Collar Advice
Accountability Starts with Ownership—Even for High-Profile Defendants People criticize offering advice to figures like Elizabeth Holmes or George Santos. But real change starts the same way for everyone: by accepting full responsibility. I learned this firsthand in federal prison. Once I stopped deflecting and said, “It’s all my fault—here’s what I’ll do moving forward,” my life began to shift. That mindset—combined with a clear plan and consistent documentation—builds credibility with stakeholders. You won’t win everyone back, but you can earn trust from those who matter....
info_outlineWhite Collar Advice
The Real Cost of a Conviction When people think about the biggest consequence of a criminal conviction, they often focus on prison, DOJ press releases, or the guilty plea itself. But as Justin Paperny shares, the deeper cost comes later: isolation. After prison, even success draws skepticism — online hate, accusations, even extortion attempts. Justin’s viral video brought both praise and attacks, but years after prison, he’s learned to feel indifferent. That indifference, though, comes with loneliness few understand. Takeaway: The emotional aftermath of conviction lingers long after...
info_outlineWhite Collar Advice
Why Sean Combs Won’t Get Time Served Without Effort Too many assume Sean Combs will get time served, but that’s lazy thinking. As I explained on Law and Crime, federal judges don’t just hand out leniency — they need proof. In Combs’ case, the judge cited his past criminal history when denying release, showing skepticism already. A lawyer’s polished statements won’t cut it. What matters is what Combs is doing himself — in prison — to show personal growth, remorse, and commitment to change. Judges listen when probation officers vouch for real progress, not paid defenses. 👉...
info_outlineWhite Collar Advice
Summary: Define Success, Then Own It in Prison In federal prison, success doesn’t look the same for everyone. Some people write books or prepare for release; others play pickleball or use an iPhone to stay connected. What matters is that you define your own goals and commit to them, without stalling or blaming others. As Michael Santos and I teach, no one else—not even your spouse—can carry that responsibility for you. A real-world example: I once told a frustrated caller, “I’m not your husband’s parent—he has to decide what progress means.” Want practical guidance on how to...
info_outlineWhite Collar Advice
Early Action Matters in Federal Cases Last week, I spoke with a pharmacist indicted for illegally distributing opioids—millions of pills. Back in February, he was scared but convinced the government lacked evidence. Now, months later, he’s panicking. Why? Others cooperated early, gave information, and left him with nothing to offer. Here’s the truth: DOJ prosecutors work full-time. Waiting only shrinks your options. One study shows over 90% of federal cases end in plea deals—and those who act early often see better outcomes. If you’re under investigation, ask yourself: what’s your...
info_outlineWhite Collar Advice
Sean “Diddy” Combs will be sentenced on October 3rd. In this video, I explain why it’s a mistake to focus on predictions about whether he’ll get time served. I served time in federal prison, and I’ve worked with hundreds of defendants preparing for sentencing. Judges don’t rely just on lawyers. They don’t base their sentence on public statements or reputation. They read the probation report—and they often rely on the probation officer’s recommendation when justifying the sentence. If Diddy wants leniency, he’ll have to earn it through daily, documented effort. That...
info_outlineWhite Collar Advice
In this episode, I reflect on a recent conversation with a father who waited too long to act during a federal investigation—and what Robert Greene’s The 33 Strategies of War teaches us about timing, silence, and influence. We connect Greene’s strategies to earlier themes from Montaigne, Seneca, Camus, and Ayn Rand, focusing on how people lose ground not through action, but through delay. This isn’t about sentencing. It’s about how others judge what you build—or what you fail to show—while the window is still open. Justin Paperny
info_outlineWhite Collar Advice
Since 2009, 87 people in our community have gone to trial. Every one of them lost. It’s not a statistic I share with pride, but it’s the truth. We don’t represent people at trial. We don’t write motions. We’re not defense attorneys. But we work with people who going to trial. And since odds are they lose, including the innocent, we encourage people to prepare. Let me say it again, something I tend to do: If you’re going to trial, you better prepare for sentencing as if you’ve already lost. Conviction Isn’t the End—It’s the Beginning of Regret When the verdict comes down,...
info_outlineSince 2009, 87 people in our community have gone to trial. Every one of them lost. It’s not a statistic I share with pride, but it’s the truth. We don’t represent people at trial. We don’t write motions. We’re not defense attorneys. But we work with people who going to trial. And since odds are they lose, including the innocent, we encourage people to prepare.
Let me say it again, something I tend to do: If you’re going to trial, you better prepare for sentencing as if you’ve already lost.
Conviction Isn’t the End—It’s the Beginning of Regret
When the verdict comes down, most people describe the same thing: a freezing moment where everything locks in place. A physician told me it felt like his whole life collapsed into a second. That kind of mental collapse doesn’t announce itself. It just shows up. Thankfully, he had been preparing for the worst case scenario, like Jerry Lundergan did.
I suspect if Diddy loses his lawyers will lean in and say what they always say: “We’ll appeal. We’re not done. This isn’t over.” Sometimes defendants believe it. Sometimes they don’t.
What happens next is often worse than the verdict—regret. Regret over a deal you didn’t take. Regret that you weren’t thinking clearly six months earlier. Regret that you listened to too many people who said you’d win.
I’ve seen people sentenced to 10 years who told me they would have taken three in a plea if they had a chance to go back. But there’s no going back.
What Happens at MDC After the Verdict
If Diddy is convicted, he’ll go back to MDC Brooklyn, but the atmosphere will be different. There’s no presumption of innocence. Staff know the outcome. So do the other prisoners. That doesn’t mean they’ll treat him differently—they already assume what’s coming. But once you’re convicted, everything shifts. You’re no longer awaiting a result. You’re awaiting a federal prison sentence.
He Won’t Go to a Camp—and Maybe Not Even to a Low
If convicted of what the indictment alleges—sex trafficking, drugs, and firearms—Combs is not eligible for a federal prison camp. Those convictions carry public safety factors that eliminate camp placement completely. That’s not speculation. That’s BOP policy.
If he’s sentenced to more than 20 years, a low-security placement is also unlikely. That means the most likely placement is a medium-security federal prison, such as Victorville in California or Coleman in Florida.
Victorville Medium houses men. It’s part of a larger complex that includes a high-security USP and a women’s camp nearby. If the penitentiary locks down, every prison on the complex—including the camp—gets locked down with it. That’s the consequence of being in a place with a long history of violence, institutional politics, and custody disruptions.
Victorville offers RDAP, basic programming, and the chance to earn time credits—if you have the right documentation in your PSR. But medical care is limited. Commissary is capped. Visitation is inconsistent. And the politics of a medium are nothing like a camp.
Medium vs. Low Isn’t Just a Fence Line
There’s a reason violence is more common in mediums. In medium-security prisons, you’re more likely to be around people with long sentences, violent histories, or repeat federal cases. In a camp or a low, most people are within 10–20 years of release. They have a date in mind. They don’t want trouble.
In a medium, that dynamic changes. Release is farther away. Time feels cheaper. People are more likely to enforce their politics. That includes racial lines, gang structures, and expectations of behavior. The idea of being left alone isn’t guaranteed.
The people around Diddy will know exactly why he’s there. He won’t have to say anything. But if he walks in acting like he’s still in control, like the rules don’t apply, like he’s better than the people around him—there will be problems. If he takes the opposite approach, it’ll still be hard. But people might give him space. That’s what I learned inside. If people see you working, staying quiet, doing your job, and not complaining—they give you a break.
Mitigation Still Matters After a Conviction
I’ve worked with plenty of people convicted at trial who still mitigated. As I wrote earlier, Jerry Lundergan was convicted at trial and facing 63 months. He got 21. Later, he was pardoned—partly because of the documentation and advocacy he helped build while working with PrisonProfessors.org.
If Diddy is convicted, he can still prepare for sentencing. He can still show what he will do moving forward. That means getting the PSR right. That means building a release plan, contributing to his fellow prisoners.
If you’re facing federal charges and thinking about trial, ask yourself one question: What will your record show if you lose?
We’ll be here.
Justin Paperny