Conscious Decoupling
Arms Control Wonk
U.S. Undersecretary of State Tom DiNanno accused China of conducting decoupled, low-yield nuclear tests including on June 22, 2020. Aaron and Jeffrey talk about seismic monitoring of nuclear tests, the role of hydronuclear testing, and what might be going on. Support us over at !
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(Just Like) New START is Over
Arms Control Wonk
The New START treaty has expired leaving the US and Russia without a bilateral limit on offensive strategic arms for the first time in decades. There is reportedly a handshake deal not to do anything drastic for six months while the two sides talk about the outlines of a future deal, but there seems to be little agreement about what such a deal might look like. Aaron and Jeffrey discuss the end of New START, the prospects for and constraints on a looming arms race, and why even bother with arms control treaties at all. Support us over at !
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Oreshnik Again
Arms Control Wonk
Russia has deployed the Oreshnik system in Belarus and then, from Russia, conducted another Oreshnik test. Jefffrey and Aaron discuss how the open source team found the deployment site in Belarus before Russia announced it, what they think Oreshnik is, and how Russia managed to violate two arms control treaties with one missile. Support us over at !
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A Pod of Dynamite
Arms Control Wonk
Jeffrey and Scott watched the new Kathryn Bigelow movie "House of Dynamite" and they both have opinions. The crew talks through both the artistic choices as well as the wonky details. "House of Dynamite" is an interesting take on missile defense and decisionmaking that doesn't quite commit enough to any philosophical or strategic camp, but ultimately may be the lens through which a lot of non-wonks view or interact with missile defenses, conceptually, as we move towards a potential major expansion of US missile defenses. We should do a watch party. Support us over at !
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A Return to Nuclear Testing
Arms Control Wonk
Donald Trump directed "the Department of War to start testing our Nuclear Weapons on an equal basis" with other countries. The Department of War doesn't test nuclear weapons, the Department of Energy does all the time in lots of different ways. Some people worried this meant a return to explosive testing, others seemed to think it was about delivery systems. Subsequent statements by the Vice President and the Secretary of Defense didn't clarify things. Aaron and Jeffrey sit down to try to make some sense of it all. Support us over at !
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Pentagon Blocks Ukraine Strikes
Arms Control Wonk
Alex Ward and others at the Wall Street Journal reported on the details of a Pentagon review process that has halted Ukraine's ability to conduct long-range strikes into Russia with ATACMs, Storm Shadow and other systems that need US targeting data. Jeffrey and Aaron talk about what we already knew, what we didn't, and what it all mean. Hint: Allies should stand up their own targeting capabilities. Watch the video episode ! Support us over at !
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Fly Burevestnik Fly!
Arms Control Wonk
The Slack channel noticed that Russia was gearing up to test the SSC-X-9 Skyfall nuclear-powered cruise missile (aka Burevestnik), which Jeffrey and co. confirmed with satellite images. Reuters picked it up, noting how awkward all this was coming, as it did, just as Putin flew to Alaska to meet with Donald Trump. Aaron and Jeffrey talk about the OSINT and the political implications. Watch the video episode ! Support us over at !
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Iran’s Pathway to the Bomb
Arms Control Wonk
Aaron and Jeffrey finally deconflict their schedules to talk about the outcome of the Israeli-Iranian war, Iran’s pathway back to the bomb, and why they’re both irritated with the “fix it or nix it crowd.” Support us over at !
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Israel Strikes Iran
Arms Control Wonk
Aaron and Jeffrey sat down to discuss the latest new from Iran, where Israel has been launching strike on leadership, nuclear, and missile targets. Support us over at !
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The Pahalgam Panic
Arms Control Wonk
In what seems like clockwork, India and Pakistan fought an “almost war” recently, prompting concerns about the risk of nuclear war. Aaron and Jeffrey sat down to talk about the crisis, the meaning of deterrence, and how it worked during this recent flare up. Watch the video pod over on ! Support us over at !
info_outlineUS Ambassador to NATO, Kay Bailey Hutchinson, made some news. And not in a good way. She was trying to say that the US would develop countervailing capabilities -- something that started under the Obama Administration and that almost no one disagrees with.
But she mangled the quote and, in doing so, reinforced Russian paranoia about decapitation. The US and Russia seemed determined to relive the horrors of the early 1980s, albeit on accident. Find out why.
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