126. Robert de Neufville, Writer and Superforecaster

Show Notes:

Robert de Neufville dropped out of grad school after spending over a decade in grad school and not finishing his PhD. This was around the time of the financial crisis. Robert realized that after a decade in academia he was less employable than when he graduated from Harvard. He had done a lot of teaching at Berkeley and San Francisco State, but found himself struggling to find a job. He eventually moved to Hawaii to work freelance editing projects. He moved there because he had a friend who wanted to rent out his house.

Working as a Forecaster and Political Writer

Currently, Robert is working as a forecaster and political writer. He has a sub-stack newsletter called Telling the Future, which has about 1500 subscribers. While he is not particularly happy writing about politics right now, he believes it's necessary for his career and personal growth.

Therapy and Political Theory

Robert discusses their first period after college and therapy. He mentions the stigma surrounding therapy and the importance of normalizing it. However, he eventually reached a breaking point. He didn’t know what he wanted to do after college. He drove to New York and worked at several different places, including consulting and Booz and Allen, which he ultimately found lacked meaning and decided to pursue a more intellectual career. He knew that he liked thinking and writing about things, so he applied to grad school for political science, where he studied political theory and moral issues related to community living. However, he found the academic culture at Berkeley to be toxic and, combined with an unhealthy lifestyle, he decided it was not for him.  Robert touches on his difficult childhood, which was characterized by narcissistic parents and abusive mother. He eventually sought therapy and found that he felt better, but struggled to complete his dissertation. He dropped out of grad school, despite their professors' concerns, and was diagnosed with chronic PTSD.

Finding Solace in Teaching

Robert found solace in teaching, but disliked the part where he had to grade students. Some people had unhealthy relationships with grades, and he felt he had to refer them to suicide watch. He realized that teaching was great because it allowed them to understand a topic better by explaining it to others. He found that teaching was the only way they could truly understand a topic, but he realized he didn't want to do academic work. Additionally, he found that there was a backlog of people who wanted to become political theory professors who spend their time teaching adjuncts and spending money on conferences and job opportunities. Robert believes that his experience in grad school was intellectually rewarding and that his training and political theory shaped who he is.

Writing for Love and Money

Robert  talks about his experience writing for mainstream publications like The Economist, National Interest, California magazine, The Big Think, and The Washington Monthly. He shares his struggles with freelance writing, as he finds it slow and fussy, and finds it frustrating to be paid for work that takes time to complete. He also discusses his writing about forecasting, becoming a skilled judgmental forecaster. He makes money by producing forecasts for various organizations, which is a relatively new field. He encourages readers to support writers they love and consider paying for their work, as it is hard and not very rewarding.

Forecasting Methods and Examples

The conversation turns to Robert’s writing and forecasting. He explains his approach to forecasting and how he uses history to guide his predictions. He shares his method of estimating the probability of events in the future, which involves looking back at similar elections and establishing a base rate. This helps in estimating the probability of what is going to happen in a specific situation. Robert also mentions that there are some situations that require more analytical thinking, such as discovering AGI or other technologies. He talks about The Phil Tetlock project, a government agency that helped invent the internet, aimed to determine if anyone could forecast geopolitical questions. The research showed that people were terrible at it, even analysts and pundits. However, a certain percentage of people consistently outperformed intelligence analysts using methodical extrapolations. Robert participated in the tournament and qualified as a super forecaster in his first year. He works with Metaculus and the Good Judgment Project, which produces probabilistic forecasts for decision-makers. The forecasting community is now working on making forecasts useful, such as understanding the reasons behind people's forecasts rather than just the number they produce.

Influential Harvard Courses and Professors

Robert stresses that he found his interaction with fellow students to be most enriching, and he appreciated Stanley Hoffmann's class on Ethics and International relations, which was taught through a humanist lens and emphasized the importance of morality. He also enjoyed watching the list of movies and reading academic articles alongside his classes, which eventually informed his teaching. He also mentions Adrienne Kennedy's playwriting class, which he found exciting and engaging. He enjoys table reads and reading people's plays fresh off the presses and believes that these experiences have shaped his forecasting skills.

Timestamps:

03:16: Robert's Move to Hawaii and Career Challenges 

06:16: Current Endeavors and Writing Career 

07:58: Therapy and Early Career Struggles 

10:14: Grad School Experience and Academic Challenges 

22:41: Teaching and Forecasting Career

26:21: Forecasting Techniques and Projects 

41:27: Impact of Harvard and Influential Professors 

Links:

Substack newsletter: https://tellingthefuture.substack.com/

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/robertdeneufville/

Featured Non-profit:

The featured non-profit of this episode of The 92 Report is recommended by Patrick Jackson who reports:

“Hi I'm Patrick Ian Jackson, class of 1992. The featured nonprofit of this episode of The 92 report is His Hands Free Clinic, located in Cedar Rapids, Iowa. Since 1992 His Hands Free Clinic has been seeking to honor God by helping the uninsured and underinsured in our community. The clinic is a 501, c3 nonprofit ministry providing free health care to Cedar Rapids and the surrounding communities. I love the work of this organization. The church that I pastor, First Baptist Church, Church of the Brethren, has been a regular contributor to the clinic for the past couple of years. You can learn more about their work at WWW dot his hands clinic.org, and now here is Will Bachman with this week's episode.”

To learn more about their work, visit: www.HisHandsClinic.org.