Timing the Market vs. Following the Trend: What Actually Works

In this episode of The Retirement Fiduciary Podcast, host Adam Koós takes the guest seat on The Aligned Money Show with George G. The conversation blends financial insight with personal backstory as Adam opens up about his unexpected past in music, his path to becoming a Chartered Market Technician, and the investment strategies he uses today to help clients protect and grow their wealth.

This episode covers everything from election-season uncertainty to the pros and cons of trend following, what most people misunderstand about timing the market, and why building the right portfolio is the key to sticking with your plan.

Whether you're a retiree, a pre-retiree, or someone just looking for a better way to manage risk in today’s market, this episode offers candid advice and a reminder that real financial planning is more than just picking investments.

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Episode Timestamps:

01:00 – Two Truths and a Lie: Adam’s Singing Past Revealed
05:30 – What’s Top of Mind: Markets, Elections, and Uncertainty
07:30 – Should You Wait to Invest Until After the Election?
10:00 – Adam’s Approach to Market Volatility and Trend Following
13:00 – Tactical vs. Strategic Models: Why Adam Uses Both
16:00 – Analogies That Help Clients Understand Complex Strategies
18:00 – Recency Bias and Why Portfolios Fail
20:00 – U.S. Debt, GDP, and Economic Outlook
22:00 – The #1 Retirement Planning Tip Most People Ignore
23:00 – Where to Find a Fiduciary Advisor

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Key Takeaways:

🔹 Trend Following Is Not Timing: It’s not about predicting the market—it’s about following patterns and adjusting when they change.
🔹 Election Uncertainty Is Normal: Markets don’t care who wins. They care about knowing who wins.
🔹 Diversification Alone Isn’t Enough: Combining buy-and-hold with tactical models can protect against major downturns.
🔹 Analogies Help: Whether it’s tornado sirens, playoff teams, or March Madness—clear comparisons make financial strategies easier to grasp.
🔹 Don’t Delay Planning: Most people don’t create a financial plan until age 52. That’s too late. Start now.
🔹 Voice of the Market > Opinions: Markets don’t care what you think. They respond to data, not feelings.
🔹 Crystal Balls Don’t Work: Be honest with clients. No one can predict the future—but you can prepare for it.

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Key Quotes from Adam Koós:

🗣 “Markets don’t care who wins elections—they care about the uncertainty before we know who wins.”
🗣 “Every seven tornado sirens, one touches down. That’s why you still go to the basement.”
🗣 “People don’t abandon their plan because of a bad advisor—they abandon it because they’re in the wrong portfolio.”
🗣 “I’ve got a crystal ball on my desk—but it doesn’t work.”
🗣 “Planning isn’t just for wealthy people. It’s for anyone who doesn’t want to hope their retirement works out.”

 

🔗 Connect with George and The Aligned Money Show:

• Show Page: Aligned Money Show – https://moneyalignmentacademy.com

• LinkedIn: George G – https://www.linkedin.com/in/georgeg (placeholder – update if needed)

• Website: https://moneyalignmentacademy.com

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🔗 Connect with Adam Koós:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/adamkoos/