Power plays: Themes for 2025
The Decisive Podcast: Insights and analysis to empower confident decision-making.
Release Date: 12/21/2024
Takeaways on Tariffs Following July 9 Developments
The Decisive Podcast: Insights and analysis to empower confident decision-making.
In this episode of The Decisive Podcast, host Kristen Hallam is joined by S&P Global Market Intelligence experts and to unpack the latest developments in U.S. tariffs and trade policy as of July 9. With the U.S. administration's approach to leveraging tariffs as a negotiation tool, the experts assess recent agreements with countries like Vietnam, the U.K., and China, and the complexities surrounding ongoing negotiations. The team also examines the implications of transshipment practices, particularly in Southeast Asia, and the legal challenges currently facing tariff implementations. As...
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Strategic Opportunities: Flipping the Script on the Risk Story
The Decisive Podcast: Insights and analysis to empower confident decision-making.
How do you identify which markets present the best opportunity for growth, and which are especially vulnerable to fluctuating trade and tariff policies? In this episode of The Decisive podcast, host Kristen Hallam uncovers the origin stories behind two tools created to address these key questions: the Strategic Opportunity Index (SOI) and the Trade and Tariff Vulnerability Index (TTV). Joining Kristen for this discussion are expert guests Cassandra Pagan, Justin Valentino, and Natasha McSwiggan. The discussion begins with an exploration of the SOI, designed to provide clarity in a...
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MENA in Focus: Potential for Conflict and Cooperation
The Decisive Podcast: Insights and analysis to empower confident decision-making.
In this episode of The Decisive Podcast, host Kristen Hallam is joined by analysts Jacob Lees Weiss and Kevjn Lim to explore the intricate and rapidly shifting risk landscape in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. Recorded before significant military operations in Iran, the discussion explores nuclear negotiations between the US and Iran, the implications of potential sanctions, and the dynamics of Israeli military strategy. The episode highlights key geopolitical tensions, including the evolving relationship between the US and Israel and the impact of these factors on the...
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Happier Berth Days: Why Congestion at the World's Ports Matters
The Decisive Podcast: Insights and analysis to empower confident decision-making.
In this episode of The Decisive Podcast, host Kristen Hallam is joined by Max Janthur, the product specialist for Port Performance, to delve into the critical issue of congestion at the world's ports. As global trade continues to evolve, understanding the role of ports becomes increasingly vital for economies and supply chains. Max shares insights from the latest Port Performance report, highlighting the significant risks and impacts of port congestion, including increased operational costs, supply chain disruptions, and environmental concerns. The discussion explores key metrics related to...
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Shedding Light on the Shadow Fleet
The Decisive Podcast: Insights and analysis to empower confident decision-making.
In this episode of the Decisive Podcast, host Kristen Hallam dives deep into the complex world of the maritime shadow fleet, exploring its emergence and evolution since the introduction of the oil price cap on December 5, 2022. Joined by Ines Nastali, Senior Supply Chain Analyst at S&P Global Market Intelligence, the discussion covers how these oil tankers operate outside traditional regulatory frameworks, often evading sanctions imposed by various governments. Listeners will gain insights into the size and characteristics of the shadow fleet, which includes an estimated 940 tankers, many...
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Reduced Speed Ahead: Outlook for the US Economy
The Decisive Podcast: Insights and analysis to empower confident decision-making.
In this episode of The Decisive, we're sharing highlights from our US macroeconomic webinar on May 20, featuring expert commentary from our economics team at S&P Global Market Intelligence. We dive deep into the forecast for the US economy, which faces a slowdown. Projected growth is expected to average just 0.8% per quarter in 2025, raising questions about the potential for a recession. We explain the anatomy of a recession, walking through recent examples, and share our outlook. Our economists also discuss the implications of elevated tariffs, which are contributing to inflationary...
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Drilling Down Into Sector-Specific Tariffs
The Decisive Podcast: Insights and analysis to empower confident decision-making.
In this episode of The Decisive Podcast, host Kristen Hallam explores the complex landscape of tariffs under the current administration, focusing on the implications of Section 232 reviews. Joined by experts and , the conversation covers the nuances of industry-specific tariffs that impact a wide range of sectors, from steel and aluminum to electronics and pharmaceuticals. Listeners will gain insights into the ongoing tariff negotiations, the potential ramifications for supply chains, and the strategic decisions companies must make in response to these economic shifts. With a keen eye on...
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What's at Stake in Tariff Negotiations
The Decisive Podcast: Insights and analysis to empower confident decision-making.
In this episode of The Decisive podcast, experts from S&P Global Market Intelligence explore the complexities of global trade negotiations and their profound impact on geopolitical relationships. The panel discusses the objectives behind U.S. trade policy, including the implementation of tariffs as negotiation tools and their implications for job markets and elections. Gain a comprehensive understanding of how countries in Southeast Asia and members of the European Union are navigating the dynamic trade environment, striving to maintain economic growth while advocating for reform in the...
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PMI in Focus: Tariff Impact in Asia, UK Labor Market Trends
The Decisive Podcast: Insights and analysis to empower confident decision-making.
In this episode of The Decisive Podcast, S&P Global Market Intelligence's is joined by fellow economists and to explore the latest findings from the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data. The discussion focuses on the significant impact of recent tariff announcements on the global economy, with a particular emphasis on Asia. Listeners will gain insights into the current state of global goods trade, which has seen a notable decline in manufacturing new export orders—the largest month-on-month reduction since August 2023. The episode also explores the mixed manufacturing output trends...
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How AI Is Influencing Shipping and Supply Chains
The Decisive Podcast: Insights and analysis to empower confident decision-making.
In this episode of The Decisive Podcast, host Kristen Hallam dives into the transformative impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on the shipping and logistics industry. Joined by industry experts and , the discussion covers the distinctions between AI and automation, the current applications of AI in shipping, and the challenges companies face in leveraging this technology. The conversation also touches on future trends, the evolving workforce landscape, and the potential for AI to reshape traditional roles within the industry. Tune in to gain insights on how AI is a tool as well as a...
info_outlineThe interplay of geopolitical rivalries, economic shifts and evolving trade dynamics will define a conflicted global landscape over 2025.
In our last episode of 2024, we explore four key themes shaping this environment: economic angst, domestic discontent, elusive alliances, and trade troubles. These capture the fragility of global economic growth, the rise of unstable coalitions, the evolving nature of external alliances, and the intricacies of trade barriers and tariffs.
Strategic adaptability will determine resilience as stakeholders navigate these multifaceted challenges, balancing national interests with global cooperation to achieve stability and growth.
More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content:
- Download the full report Power Plays in 2025
- Power Plays: Themes for 2025 blog post
- Global economic outlook: November 2024
Credits:
- Host: Kristen Hallam
- Guests: Laurence Allan, Jack Kennedy, Thea Fourie, Eric Oak
- Produced By: Kristen Hallam
- Edited By: Kristen Hallam
- Published With Assistance From: Debbie Taylor, Sophie Carr, Feranmi Adeoshun