#70: Tariffic News! Markets Cheer the Ceasefire, but is It Built to Last?

In this episode of Blue Chip NOW!, hosts Daniel Dusina, CFA®, Matt Mondoux, CFA®, CMT, CFP®, and Dan Seder, CFA®, CMT, CFP® dive deep into the evolving dynamics of global trade and investor sentiment. Kicking things off with a reflection on a news-filled Mother’s Day weekend, they unpack the latest developments in U.S.–China tariff negotiations. With a 90-day tariff exemption window opening up between the nations, the conversation turns to how this temporary truce is impacting investor psychology, market sentiment, and near-term economic outlooks. The team reflects on how investor optimism has been bolstered not by confirmed policy changes but by hopeful signals, and why that matters. 

The second half of the show turns its focus to the behavioral finance factors shaping investment decisions right now—loss aversion, recency bias, and fear of missing out. They explore why investors tend to act irrationally during volatile periods and how even long-term strategic allocations are being tested. Discussions also include technical indicators like the 200-day moving average, the seasonality of market returns, and how blending fundamental and technical analysis is critical in times of uncertainty. The episode wraps with lighthearted reflections on personal stories, market metaphors, and a surprise papal connection to baseball history. 
 

"The market rally has been driven on hope, and certainly for any Andor fans out there—hope, you know, rebellions are built on hope—but this is no rebellion. This is just plain and simple economics." - Daniel Dusina 
 

"Sentiment has made a drastic turnaround—meaning how investors feel about the market looks a lot different in just a few short weeks." - Dan Seder 

 

“We’re in a comfortable place with the market right now because we’re near all-time highs, but in reality, we don’t exactly know what the resolution is going to be.” - Matt Mondoux 

Key Points:

00:00:00 - Episode Kickoff 
The team opens with greetings, a Mother’s Day shoutout, and previews the topic of U.S.–China trade talks. 

00:00:29 - U.S.–China Trade Talks and Market Impact 
The hosts delve into the anticipated U.S.–China tariff negotiations, explore what was at stake for global markets, and explain how investor optimism around a 90-day exemption fueled a rally—highlighting China's pivotal role in the geopolitical and economic equation. 

00:02:09 - Pause in Tensions 
The panel discusses the psychological relief markets experience when conflict is temporarily paused. 

00:03:01 - Tariff History 
A look back at the April 2nd tariff changes and how exemptions evolved. 

00:04:07 - CEO Uncertainty 
The conversation shifts to how business leaders are navigating unpredictable policy landscapes. 

00:05:16 -Investor Sentiment and Behavioral Biases 
The team examines the sharp rebound in market sentiment through tools like the CNN Fear & Greed Index, then unpacks key behavioral finance concepts—such as loss aversion and recency bias—that often lead investors to misjudge turning points and make emotional decisions during volatile periods. 

00:08:56 - Long-Term Positioning and Market Recovery 
The conversation highlights Bank of America’s record streak of client buying as a sign of steady long-term investor confidence, while raising the question of whether the current rally marks the beginning of a true market recovery. 

00:12:25 - Moving Averages Return 
The S&P 500 crossing above its 200-day moving average is presented as a positive technical signal. 

00:14:24 - Strategic Allocation Insight 
Recent volatility reveals whether investors' asset allocations were well-aligned with their risk tolerance. 

00:16:22 - Seasonality, Strategy, and Navigating Uncertainty 
The panel explores whether the “sell in May” seasonal trend holds up in today’s fast-moving environment and discusses how a flood of headlines without actionable data challenges traditional investing approaches—emphasizing the importance of blending technical signals with fundamental insight. 

00:19:00 - Investment Frameworks 
Ongoing conversations and solid frameworks help clients feel confident amid economic noise. 

00:19:45 - Lighthearted Wrap-Up and Final Thoughts 
The episode closes with a humorous take on the new American pope's surprise baseball connection, followed by heartfelt thanks to the audience and a look ahead to what’s next on Blue Chip NOW!. 

Links: 

Daniel Dusina: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ddusina/  

Dan Seder: https://www.linkedin.com/in/daniel-seder/  

Matt Mondoux: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matt-mondoux-cfa-cmt-cfp%C2%AE-838935b0/ 

Spend with Confidence. Live without Regret: https://www.bluechippartners.com 

Schedule an Intro Call: https://meetings.hubspot.com/daniel-seder 

Disclosure Information: https://www.bluechippartners.com/disclosures/   

Podcast: https://www.bluechippartners.com/blue-chip-now/   

Blog: https://www.bluechippartners.com/blog/  

In the News: https://www.bluechippartners.com/in-the-news/  

Financial Services: 

Investment Management: https://www.bluechippartners.com/financial-services/investment-management/ 

Executive Compensation: https://www.bluechippartners.com/financial-services/executive-compensation/   

Retirement Planning: https://www.bluechippartners.com/financial-services/retirement-planning/ 

Tax Planning: https://www.bluechippartners.com/financial-services/tax-planning/ 

Estate Planning: https://www.bluechipestateplanning.com 

Career Opportunities: https://www.bluechippartners.com/about/career-opportunities/