Navigating Market Complexities: Insights from the Trading Desk | EP172
Release Date: 11/26/2024
From Invisible Hand to Heavy Hand: Government Stakes, AI, and the Shifting CapEx Cycle in U.S. Markets | EP197
Art of Boring
In this episode, U.S. Equity Portfolio Manager Grayson Witcher explores the evolving intersection of government policy, innovation, and capital expenditure (CapEx) in U.S. markets. The discussion unpacks how public spending and strategic government stakes—especially in sectors like semiconductors and defense—are reshaping the investment landscape. Grayson reflects on the unique blend of complacency and optimism in today’s markets, the uncertain returns on massive AI-driven CapEx, and the importance of management quality and adaptability in navigating this new era. Key highlights: U.S....
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Convergence and Complacency: Today's Credit Markets | EP 196
Art of Boring
Brian Carney, lead portfolio manager of the global credit opportunities strategy, explores the current credit market environment characterized by tight spreads and low defaults despite global uncertainties. He discusses the concept of "convergence and complacency"—where large pools of capital chase lower-quality borrowers while markets overlook serious warning signs including political pressure on central banks and hidden leverage. The conversation covers key crisis indicators, the weakening of credit covenants over the past decade, and the risks associated with private credit. He outlines...
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From Inventory to Innovation: Canadian Small Caps in Focus | EP 195
Art of Boring
In this episode equity analyst Dominic Drzazga discusses the current state of Canadian small caps, highlighting how geopolitical volatility creates both challenges and opportunities. The conversation covers recent portfolio additions including Sprott's precious metals trust and Kraken's underwater robotics technology, while reflecting on the bittersweet exit of long-time holding Andlauer. Dom also shares insights into how the research team is utilizing AI tools within their process. Key Takeaways: How the Canadian Small Cap team navigates market volatility and geopolitical...
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Back to the Future: Global Equity | EP 194
Art of Boring
Paul Moroz returns to The Art of Boring podcast after three years, discussing his reappointment as lead manager of Mawer's global equity strategy. Paul outlines the team’s strategic approach to portfolio repositioning and reflects on how the investment landscape has evolved over the past five years. He emphasizes increased diversification, better alignment with other Mawer strategies, and a more balanced approach to market exposure. Key Takeaways: Paul Moroz and David Ragan have returned to the global equity strategy with renewed energy and focus The portfolio is...
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Quarterly Update | Q2 2025 | EP 193
Art of Boring
In this episode Canadian bond portfolio manager, Crista Caughlin, and balanced portfolio manager, Steven Visscher discuss Q2’s market and economic activity. Topics covered include “Liberation Day's” tariff shocks, central bank policies, inflation, and other themes. Key Takeaways: The announcement and subsequent deferral of sweeping U.S. tariffs caused significant market volatility, with a sharp initial selloff followed by a rapid recovery. The uncertainty around trade policy had a pronounced impact on economic growth expectations and market sentiment. The quarter...
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Customizing the Last Mile: AI, Innovation, and Mawer’s Tech Evolution | EP 192
Art of Boring
In this episode, Justin Anderson, Mawer’s Chief Technology Officer, sits down to discuss the evolving “build-in vs. build-out” technology framework. Justin explains how Mawer approaches technology decisions—balancing vendor solutions with in-house customization—and shares practical examples from the firm, including proprietary solutions such as trade&MAWER and M42. The conversation explores how advances in AI and large language models are accelerating the shift toward more tailored, efficient solutions. He also offers insights for investors on what to look for in management teams...
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Energy, Gold, and Growth: Current Insights on Canadian Markets | EP 191
Art of Boring
Mark Rutherford, co-manager of Mawer’s Canadian large cap strategy, discusses the ongoing volatility in oil, the unique role of gold, the outlook for Canadian banks, and the potential impact of recent political changes. Mark also shares how the Mawer team is leveraging AI to enhance their investment process and decision-making. Key Takeaways: • Oil Market: Global demand is rising, driven by economic growth and higher incomes, while supply is shaped by geopolitics, OPEC, and technology. • Canadian Banks: Loan growth is slow and provisions are higher amid uncertainty, but banks remain...
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Finding Hidden Gems in Emerging Markets | EP 190
Art of Boring
Join Peter Lampert, Portfolio Manager of Mawer's Emerging Markets strategy, as he takes you on a journey from Polish meat counters to UAE boardrooms, revealing how a disciplined bottom-up approach uncovers extraordinary opportunities in overlooked markets. Key Takeaways: • Mawer’s bottom-up philosophy is consistent across markets, but emerging markets require a nuanced focus on the macro and geopolitical environment. • Emerging markets are highly diverse and less efficient, often offering more opportunities for disciplined, active investors. • On-the-ground research—such as recent...
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Navigating Uncertainty: Global Small Caps, Process Innovation, and AI at Mawer | EP189
Art of Boring
In this episode, Karan Phadke, Portfolio Manager for Mawer’s global small cap strategy, shares insights on how small caps are navigating trade policy volatility, the importance of proactive management, and Mawer’s unique approach to process improvement and AI integration in investment research. Key points from this episode: • Small caps’ local focus provides insulation from global trade volatility. Importance of proactive management teams in uncertain environments. • Mawer’s “ant model” drives continuous process improvement and collaboration. • Systematic thesis...
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The Long View: Global Equity Positioning in Uncertain Markets | EP188
Art of Boring
In this episode, global equity co-manager, Manar Hassan-Agha, examines how tariff policies have created uncertainty for businesses, particularly impacting capital deployment decisions and supply chains. Manar explains how a focus on asset-light, service-oriented businesses with recurring revenue provides resilience during volatile periods, with limited direct exposure to tariff-vulnerable exports. Through specific company examples like Admiral Group, UnitedHealth, and a beauty products business, he illustrates how the team evaluates short-term price movements versus long-term intrinsic value,...
info_outlineIn this episode, we discuss market insights with two representatives from the trading desk: Rita Tien, who trades the Americas from Toronto, and Peter Dmytruk, who trades Asia from Singapore. Rita and Peter highlight the complexities of trading, emphasizing the importance of regional differences and the role of the trading desk in executing investment decisions. They discuss the impact of the Japanese carry trade, the shift to T+1 settlement cycles in the U.S. and Canada, and the influence of ETFs and retail investors on market volatility. They also touch on the role of multi-strategy hedge funds and the challenges of managing market risks. The conversation underscores the need for long-term investment strategies and the importance of understanding market structures and dynamics.
Key Takeaways:
- The trading desk plays a critical role in executing investment decisions effectively, navigating market nuances and regional differences.
- Market events like U.S. elections and Fed rate decisions significantly impact markets, requiring traders to discern meaningful signals from noise. While short-term volatility is challenging, the focus remains on executing trades aligned with long-term strategies.
- The Japanese carry trade impacts markets, influencing businesses and structured products. Sudden market moves, like Japan's interest rate hike, highlight the importance of communication to assess potential impacts on investment theses.
- In the U.S. and Canada, the shift to T+1 settlement reduces settlement risk and margin requirements by accelerating fund transfers but adds complexity for global trades due to mismatched settlement cycles.
- Market volatility is influenced by zero-day options, high-frequency trading, retail investor activity, and leveraged ETFs. Retail-driven markets such as India, Korea, and Taiwan showcase momentum-driven dynamics, while recent SEC rules aim to protect retail investors and improve liquidity access for institutional players.
- ETFs significantly influence market dynamics, concentrating liquidity and volume, especially during closing auctions, where up to 20% of daily trading occurs. This impacts trade timing, crowding in top-weighted stocks, and creates potential price distortions affecting subsequent trading days.
- Multi-strategy hedge funds, or "pod shops," drive market overcrowding by leveraging similar strategies, such as M&A arbitrage or index rebalancing. This amplifies market risks, creates volatility during downturns, and provides opportunities for disciplined long-term investors amid rapid shifts.
- Crowded, momentum-driven trades fueled by leverage and quantitative models can create challenges for disciplined investors, though opportunities arise in volatility. Balancing exposure to popular names with underappreciated companies can mitigate risks while benefiting from structural market inefficiencies.
Host Name and title:
Rob Campbell, CFA
Mawer Institutional Portfolio Manager
Guest names and titles:
Peter Dmytruk, CFA, P. Eng.
Trader
Rita Tien
Equity Trader
For more details and full transcript visit: https://mawer.com/the-art-of-
This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts.
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Founded in 1974, Mawer is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore. Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com.
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