Recession Indicators | Gold Oil Ratio | Fed Cut Probabilities Jump | Net Profit Margins By Decade
Release Date: 09/07/2025
Santa Claus Rally | Silver Goes Parabolic | S&P 500 Growth Due to Earnings & Multiple | International Stocks Rocking
Broken Pie Chart
Derek Moore is joined by Shane Skinner to talk about silver prices going parabolic while Gold, Copper, Platinum, and other metals are clocking in gains. Does the rally continue? They, they look at how well international markets have done crushing the S&P 500 Index this year where Spain’s IBEX 35 and South Korea’s KOSPI are the top dogs that no one saw coming. Later, they discussed the attribution to gains this year including how much it is due to earnings growth vs the growth of the forward PE multiple. Finally, discussing how much the S&P 500 Index companies’ turnover (and have...
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What if Bitcoin Goes Nowhere? | No Inflation | TSLA Volatility & SpaceX | Gold vs Bitcoin | Japan 10YR Yields
Broken Pie Chart
Derek Moore is joined by Shane Skinner and Mike Snyder to talk about the CPI report and the bad beat for analysts. Then, they talk Bitcoin and what if it goes sideways for the next 5 years? Later, looking at Tesla TSLA implied volatility and whether SpaceX is creeping into its price plus how a small ETF is gaining flows because of a small allocation to SpaceX. We’ll also talk sector performance YTD in 2025, Bitcoin vs gold searches, and yup, a little Japan talk looking at their 10 year yields surging across 2% for the first time in a while and whether this is an issue. Gold vs...
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$1 million Now vs $1000 a Week for Life | Wall Street Prediction Cycle | Markets Go Up More Than Average | Goldilocks Markets | Apple’s Resilience
Broken Pie Chart
Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner this week to ask if you would rather have a $1 million lump sum vs $1000 per week for life if you won the lotter. Then, looking at some of the incoming 2026 Wall Steet year end S&P 500 Index targets. Don’t forget we’ll do our own 2026 prediction show. Later, Apple seems to be bucking the AI spend and its price has been resilient in 2025, so what goes right or wrong in 2026? Plus, how markets go up over time but more specifically, in years they are up it’s likely they are up more than average. Apple bet not to go all in on...
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Can’t Be a Bubble Without? | Contrarian Signal Consumer Sentiment Hits a Low | Gold vs Stocks | Earnings Guidance Rises
Broken Pie Chart
Derek Moore is joined by Shane Skinner and Mike Snyder to talk about Jurrien Timmer’s chart showing we aren’t in a bubble because the rise in markets is due to earnings not multiple gains. Plus, U of Michigan consumer sentiment hits a new low despite markets near all-time highs. Later, is Japan’s rise in interest rates a problem for stocks, bonds, or neither? Finally, looking at the returns of gold vs stocks plus surprising forward P/E ratio of Walmart vs Nvidia. Gold vs Stocks performance Jurrien Timmer’s market return attributions comparing earnings vs valuation gains Bubble...
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Small Caps Telling Us Rate Cuts | It’s Not Just the Mag 7 Near All-Time Highs | Fear & Greed Index Disconnect | HOPE Economic Sequence
Broken Pie Chart
Derek Moore is joined by Shane Skinner and Mike Snyder to talk about the coming Fed decision and what the market is telling us. Plus, CNN’s Fear and Greed Index is almost at extreme fear so why are most markets near all-time highs? Then, looking at the economy through the lens of Michael Kantro’s HOPE theory and whether the recent ADP employment report is giving mixed messages. All this and more this week. HOPE = Housing Orders Profits Employment Russell 2000 Cup or Vase with Handle pattern? Fed interest rate cut now at 94% probability Are small caps telling us more rate cuts...
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Nvidia Saves the Market? | Fed Cut Whisperers | MSCI to Dump Strategy? | Sentiment vs the Market
Broken Pie Chart
Derek Moore is joined by Shane Skinner and Mike Snyder to talk about Nvidia’s moves post earnings and whether the options market got it right. Then, what would happen if MSCI removes Strategy and index funds must liquidate? Later, did the Fed just say they are cutting without saying they are cutting? Plus, has sentiment ever been this bad near all-time highs? MSCI might dump MicroStrategy | Strategy from its index Fed enters the blackout period before their meeting Probability of an interest rate cut Did buying or selling the at-the-money Nvidia straddle work post earnings? Looking at...
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OpenAI IPO | Michael Saylor’s Strategy’s Bitcoin Strategy Reframed | Michael Burry on Mag 7 Earnings Quality | NVDA Earnings Options Volatility
Broken Pie Chart
Derek Moore is joined by Shane Skinner and Mike Snyder this week to talk about people’s reaction to Michael Burry’s comments on earnings quality in the Mag 7 companies, talk of the OpenAI IPO, and Nvidia’s options ahead of earnings week. Plus, they reframe the idea of Strategy buying Bitcoin by using an alternative example. What if they held Apple stock instead? All this and much more this week. Michael Burry suggests depreciation and accounting adjustments driving earnings in Mag 7 OpenAI most anticipated IPO since Snapple in the early nineties? What if AI technology is a...
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S&P 500 Stocks Dispersion | Small Caps Outflows | NVDA Implied Volatility | Market Re-Rating Forward PE Ratio
Broken Pie Chart
Derek Moore is joined by Shane Skinner and Mike Snyder where they look at the dispersion happening within the S&P 500 Index November to date. Then, they discuss the outflows ongoing for the small caps and what if anything that means. Later, looking at the effects of earnings on Nvidia’s option prices, Apple’s outlier as the strongest of the Mag 7 this week, and reviewing how the market re-rating caused the market to ease even though another record forward earnings expectation number from analysts. Not all Mag-7 stocks are acting in unison NVDA implied volatility comparison...
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Hindenburg Omen | MicroStrategy vs Bitcoin | CAPE Ratio and Forward Returns | No More Tariff Tantrum?
Broken Pie Chart
Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder to discuss the Hindenburg Omen and what that means for the stock market. Plus, looking at whether the Tariff trade has been completely wrong. Later, the best six months of the year are here, problems with using CAPE Ration to predict forward returns, permabears, and examining whether MicroStrategy (Strategy) is starting to not make sense to investors. All that plus looking at Semiconductors cycle against the Mag 7 and the S&P 500 Index. Tariff trade MicroStrategy (Strategy) vs Bitcoin trade Enterprise value of MicroStrategy vs intrinsic value of...
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AAPL MSFT META GOOG Earnings Volatility | 5% Mortgage Rates Coming? | No Inflation Despite Tariffs | 7000 Up Next for S&P 500 Index?
Broken Pie Chart
Derek Moore is joined by Shane Skinner and Mike Snyder to discuss the upcoming huge week in earnings and where the options markets rank the big 4 this week for implied moves. Then, they ask the question of what would need to happen to see 30-year mortgage rates slip lower to 5%. Later, they review the latest (albeit late) CPI figures and note, despite tariffs, no surge in inflation. All this and more plus a couple of recommendations. Implied volatility around earnings AAPL MSFT META GOOG Spread between 30-year mortgage rates and the 10-year treasury yield Spread narrowing plus...
info_outlineDerek Moore and Shane Skinner talk about the rally in gold no one seems to care about and the gold oil ratio. Then, they go through the indicators used to determine recessions and note they don’t seem that bad, although nonfarm payrolls did disappoint. But private sector jobs are growing while the government jobs are falling, so are fed cuts greenlit? Later, looking at S&P 500 net income margin percentage average per decade. Yup, they’ve been rising each decade. Finally, looking at forward PE ratios against forward EPS and how some stocks like Broadcom got cheaper after last earnings. All this and much more!
Next companies that are likely to join the S&P 500 Index
Employment rate and non-farm payrolls
Government vs Private Sector jobs
Gold Oil ratio and what it means at these levels
The rally in Gold over the past couple of years
Central Banks buying gold
AVGO Broadcom earnings and forward PE ratio and forward EPS estimates
Recession indicators
S&P 500 Index net profit margins by decade (they are rising)
Why margins may not revert to the mean
Fed rate cut probabilities jump after employment report
Mentioned in this Episode
Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT
Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt
Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag
Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com