Recession Indicators | Gold Oil Ratio | Fed Cut Probabilities Jump | Net Profit Margins By Decade

Derek Moore and Shane Skinner talk about the rally in gold no one seems to care about and the gold oil ratio. Then, they go through the indicators used to determine recessions and note they don’t seem that bad, although nonfarm payrolls did disappoint. But private sector jobs are growing while the government jobs are falling, so are fed cuts greenlit? Later, looking at S&P 500 net income margin percentage average per decade. Yup, they’ve been rising each decade.  Finally, looking at forward PE ratios against forward EPS and how some stocks like Broadcom got cheaper after last earnings. All this and much more!

 

Next companies that are likely to join the S&P 500 Index

Employment rate and non-farm payrolls

Government vs Private Sector jobs

Gold Oil ratio and what it means at these levels

The rally in Gold over the past couple of years

Central Banks buying gold

AVGO Broadcom earnings and forward PE ratio and forward EPS estimates

Recession indicators

S&P 500 Index net profit margins by decade (they are rising)

Why margins may not revert to the mean

Fed rate cut probabilities jump after employment report

 

 

 

Mentioned in this Episode

 

Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT

 

Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt

 

Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag

 

Contact Derek [e-mail]