Fed Inflation Task Force | Free Cash Flow Hyperscalers vs Semiconductors | Head and Shoulders Crude Oil | Earnings Season Kicks Off | Anthropic S-1 Wait
Release Date: 07/13/2026
Mag 7 Valuation Gap Closes | Netscape Redux? | 32 NHL Team ETFs? | VIX Seasonality Setup
Broken Pie Chart
Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner this week to talk about how valuations of the top stocks now have shrunk to those of the overall market, while tech and other Mag7 stocks valuations have come down while earnings expectations are up. Plus, record short positioning in Nasdaq-100 futures, gold fund flows picking back up, VIX seasonality heading into the autumn, and a filing for 32 NHL team ETFs. All that and more this week. The forward P/E of the largest 10 S&P 500 companies has converged with the other 490. J.P. Morgan data shows the top 10 near 19.8x...
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Bad News is Good News? | SpaceX Shares Unlock Angle | Fed Hikes Off the Table? | There Aren’t 10% Pre-Tax US Treasuries
Broken Pie Chart
Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner this week to talk about a jobs report the market read as bad news is good news: payrolls up just 23,000 versus 80,000 expected, the prior two months revised down by 103,000, and participation slipping to 61.4%, the lowest since February 2021, even as unemployment fell to 4.1%. Daniel Lacalle argues the Fed is already weighing on the labor market, yet overnight index swaps still price about 1.7 hikes by mid-2027 — so are hikes really off the table? Plus, the US Dollar Index breakout, why there aren't 10% pre-tax US Treasuries, and how the...
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Warsh’s Fed Lets the Market Decide | SpaceX Earnings | Apple Sells Off | Payout Ratios Falling for Mag 7 | Earnings Surprises and Semiconductor Volatility
Broken Pie Chart
Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner this week to talk about the market tape defined by two things happening at once: a violent volatility shock concentrated in semiconductors, and an earnings season that is quietly the strongest in years. The Leopold liquidation drove SOX single-stock volatility to 75% much higher than the S&P 500 Index in general. With 305 of 498 S&P 500 companies reported for Q2 2026, sales are beating by 3.1% and earnings by 31.1%, and forward EPS is modeled to climb from trailing 294 per share to 374 per share, pulling the index P/E from 25.4...
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Mag 7 Cap Ex Problem? | SpaceX vs Tesla | Earnings Implied Volatility AAPL vs MSFT | Lots of Dispersion in the S&P 500
Broken Pie Chart
Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner this week to talk about whether the Mag 7 companies have a free cash flow problem compared to historical payout ratios. Then, they look at the relationship in price action between SpaceX and Tesla. Later, what does the options market say about next week’s Apple and Microsoft earnings reports? Oh yea, they touch on Strategy changing how it calculates the preferred STRC Sharp ratio, the US Dollar Index breaking out, oil prices, and much more. Do Mag 7 companies have a free cash flow problem? Comparing Mag 7 payout ratios to...
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Apple Sues OpenAI | SpaceX Back to Earth | Memory Stocks Dip
Broken Pie Chart
Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner to discuss SpaceX now being below its IPO price and whether it can grow into its current value. Plus, Apple sues OpenAI as the stock continues to run into earnings. Later, did anything fundamentally change with the memory stocks like Micron or people just don’t want to be the last out. Finally, the Strait of Hormuz didn’t matter to markets until the market decided it mattered again. Apple sues OpenAI Micron and the memory stocks dip again Trading behavior psychology losing hurt more than winning feels good? Strait of Hormuz...
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Fed Inflation Task Force | Free Cash Flow Hyperscalers vs Semiconductors | Head and Shoulders Crude Oil | Earnings Season Kicks Off | Anthropic S-1 Wait
Broken Pie Chart
Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner, looking at the Fed Task force and what that means for how the Fed evaluates inflation data. Plus, Anthropic is the S-1 everyone is waiting for. Later, they talk through a classic head and shoulders pattern than played out in WTI Oil charts, Fed probability of interest rate changes, Fed Minutes, and the generational exchange of free cash flow from hyperscalers to Semiconductor companies. All this and more this week. The Fed's new Inflation Task Force and what it means for how the Fed evaluates inflation data Anthropic: the S-1...
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Memory Stocks Pause | Fed May Do What No One Thinks | US Dollar Strength | Crude Oil Prices Done? | Bitcoin Recession
Broken Pie Chart
Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner to get into markets including whether the memory stock run (including Micron) is over or just taking a pause. Then, they look at the strength of the US Dollar and whether that is a major headwind while oil prices seem like they are done worrying about the Strait of Hormuz. Later, the case for and against the Fed LOWERING rates this year vs the consensus view that they need to tighten. Oh yeah, and they get Derek talking again about Bitcoin and Strategy, the resilient employment numbers, ISM prices paid are dropping, and market seasonality....
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The Unchanged S&P 500 Index | Micron Post Earnings | Hormuz Tanker Counts | Fed Useless Dot Plots | Bitcoin Sentiment | Michael Saylor Strategy Problems?
Broken Pie Chart
Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner this week where they’ll discuss Micron’s earnings announcement and subsequent stock price changes and free cash flow. Is that where all the hyperscalers cash is heading? Plus, the latest geo-political goings on including tracking the number of tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. Are the Fed dot plot predictions (expectations) really as useless as they same? Don’t forget the guys got Derek talking about Bitcoin and Strategy again. Finally, looking at some bull and bear cases for the equity markets. What are the Hyperscalers? Strait of...
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Kevin Warsh Fed | Economy Better than Thought? | SpaceX Option Volatility | Strategy STRC Preferred Dips
Broken Pie Chart
Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner this week to get into the post Kevin Warsh Fed Presser reaction. Plus, leading economic indicators (LEI) are turning bullish? Then, they talk about the options action in SpaceX including how high is the implied volatility. Odds and ends this week include discussion on MicroStrategy’s preferred STRC has dropped below its par value. SpaceX implied volatility in its options Kevin Warsh FED press conference Kevin Warsh says no dot for you! LEI leading economic indicator MicroStrategy (Strategy) preferred issue #STRC Difference between...
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SpaceX Day 1 Trading | Oil Going Lower? | SpaceX Expected Options Volatility | Inflation Hype | 2 Day Correction?
Broken Pie Chart
Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder to discuss some wild SpaceX price predictions and review day 1 of trading. Then, they discuss what the implied volatility and options pricing will be like once SpaceX options are available. Then they make the case that oil has seen its peak and the bull and bear case going forward. Later, they look at the 2-day correction before the markets decided none of the things that mattered matter anymore. SpaceX day one price and predictions going forward SpaceX options coming next week Implied volatility expectations for SpaceX options Is the correction...
info_outlineDerek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner, looking at the Fed Task force and what that means for how the Fed evaluates inflation data. Plus, Anthropic is the S-1 everyone is waiting for. Later, they talk through a classic head and shoulders pattern than played out in WTI Oil charts, Fed probability of interest rate changes, Fed Minutes, and the generational exchange of free cash flow from hyperscalers to Semiconductor companies. All this and more this week.
The Fed's new Inflation Task Force and what it means for how the Fed evaluates inflation data
Anthropic: the S-1 everyone is waiting for
A classic head and shoulders pattern playing out in WTI Crude Oil charts
Fed probabilities of interest rate changes and the latest Fed Minutes
The generational exchange of free cash flow from hyperscalers to semiconductor companies
Earnings season kicks off
What is an S-1 filing?
What is a head and shoulders technical pattern?
Which companies are reporting earnings soon?
Mentioned in this Episode
Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT
Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt
Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag
Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com