September Seasonality in Midterm Years | High Alert Heading into September | Deficits vs Tax Rates | Mega Cap Winners and Losers | Forward P/E Check Dispersion
Release Date: 09/01/2026
US Dollar Purchasing Power | Yield Curve Recession Signal Failure? | Worst Treasury Returns in 100 Years | Midterm Election Year Sweet Spot for Equities? | Nike $NKE Chart Looks Like a Popped Bubble
Broken Pie Chart
Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner to look at markets and what history says comes next. Plus, US Dollar loss of purchasing power illustrates the need to be invested. What about the inverted yield curve (10-year minus 3-month) leading to a recession? Is it too far gone or still a chance? BofA Global Investment Strategy says Treasuries just posted their worst 10-year rolling returns in 100 years. Charles Schwab data shows Energy up 40% and Tech up 29% year-to-date as of October 1, while Utilities and Consumer Discretionary lag. Are we entering the best part of the...
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SpaceX Starship Reaches Orbit | S&P 500 Breadth Lowest Since Dot-Com | 59% of S&P 500 Stocks in Bear Markets | Is Narrow Leadership a Warning? | Micron Implied Volatility and Earnings
Broken Pie Chart
Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner to dig into a market that looks healthy on the surface but tells a very different story underneath. S&P 500 breadth, measured by the gap between the index and its median stock relative to 52-week highs, just hit its narrowest level since the Dot-Com Bubble, according to a Marlin Capital chart based on Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research data. Meanwhile, as Don Durrett pointed out on Twitter, 59% of S&P 500 Index constituents are already more than 20% below their all-time highs, and 17% are down more than 50%. Is this a...
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Semis & Hyperscalers Rocking | AAII Surveys Bearish | Will Fed Cause Yield Curve Inversion? | MLB Baseball ETFs
Broken Pie Chart
Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner with the market pressing new all-time highs, semiconductors and hyperscalers ripping, and the dichotomy of bad soft data but positive hard data. Plus, is the Fed going to cause another yield curve inversion judging by the narrowing of spreads? Later, do we really need MLB baseball team etfs? All this and more this week including a contrarian indicator of bearish readings in the AAII investor surveys. Warren Pies points out correlations between semis and hyperscalers at all-time lows If semis and hyperscalers get correlated...
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Fed Big Mistake? | AI Companies Regulatory Capture? | Is the Market Getting Cheaper? | Markets and Midterms
Broken Pie Chart
Derek Moore is joined by Shane Skinner and Mike Snyder to discuss whether the Fed made a mistake raising interest rates considering the problem with CPI inflation is rising oil prices which is a supply side issue. Plus, the AI companies are sounding alarm bells about extinction level events. Is this a case of “We should be regulated and we’ll help you write the regulations” to edge out new competitors which is known as regulatory capture. Later, looking at markets that have continued to see a re-rating in multiples lower while earnings estimates are rising. All this and more this week....
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Post Labor Day Market Stats | Growth vs Value Ratio at Key Level | Fed Interest Rate Probabilities | Oracle Earnings Options Implied Move | S&P 500 vs Nasdaq 100 Forward P/E Ratio
Broken Pie Chart
Derek Moore and Shane Skinner run the post Labor Day numbers, including what the S&P 500 has done the day after Labor Day, the rest of that week, the rest of September, and the rest of the year going back to 1945. Plus, a look at Jeff Weniger's chart showing growth stocks failing again at the 1980 to 2000 resistance line versus value, what the options market implies for Oracle around earnings, and where forward earnings estimates and multiples sit on both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100. All that and more this week. S&P 500 performance the day after Labor Day going...
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September Seasonality in Midterm Years | High Alert Heading into September | Deficits vs Tax Rates | Mega Cap Winners and Losers | Forward P/E Check Dispersion
Broken Pie Chart
Derek Moore and Shane Skinner dig into what history says about September in a midterm election year, and why Mike Santoli argues investors should be on high alert heading into the month. Plus, a long look at federal receipts versus federal outlays as a percent of GDP and what top tax rates did and did not do to revenue, the widening spread between mega cap winners and losers in 2026, and a forward earnings check on Nvidia, Alphabet, Apple, Tesla, Costco, and the S&P 500 itself. All that and more this week. S&P 500 September performance in midterm election years going back...
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Big Oil's Raining Free Cash Flow | Gold Near Getting Flows | Where Did Homebuyers Go? | Midterm Year Seasonality | Nvidia Earnings
Broken Pie Chart
Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner this week to talk about Big Oil posting its best free cash flow quarter ever, $70 billion across the top five majors, without the war-driven price spike that powered the last record. Plus, gold pushing back higher as ETF flows return, the Citi global economic surprise index at its highest since 2022, an AI capex boom that lands as an import drag on GDP, midterm year seasonality, and a housing market where buyers have gone missing while prices sit at records. All that and more this week. The top five international oil majors...
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Mag 7 Valuation Gap Closes | Netscape Redux? | 32 NHL Team ETFs? | VIX Seasonality Setup
Broken Pie Chart
Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner this week to talk about how valuations of the top stocks now have shrunk to those of the overall market, while tech and other Mag7 stocks valuations have come down while earnings expectations are up. Plus, record short positioning in Nasdaq-100 futures, gold fund flows picking back up, VIX seasonality heading into the autumn, and a filing for 32 NHL team ETFs. All that and more this week. The forward P/E of the largest 10 S&P 500 companies has converged with the other 490. J.P. Morgan data shows the top 10 near 19.8x...
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Bad News is Good News? | SpaceX Shares Unlock Angle | Fed Hikes Off the Table? | There Aren’t 10% Pre-Tax US Treasuries
Broken Pie Chart
Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner this week to talk about a jobs report the market read as bad news is good news: payrolls up just 23,000 versus 80,000 expected, the prior two months revised down by 103,000, and participation slipping to 61.4%, the lowest since February 2021, even as unemployment fell to 4.1%. Daniel Lacalle argues the Fed is already weighing on the labor market, yet overnight index swaps still price about 1.7 hikes by mid-2027 — so are hikes really off the table? Plus, the US Dollar Index breakout, why there aren't 10% pre-tax US Treasuries, and how the...
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Warsh’s Fed Lets the Market Decide | SpaceX Earnings | Apple Sells Off | Payout Ratios Falling for Mag 7 | Earnings Surprises and Semiconductor Volatility
Broken Pie Chart
Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner this week to talk about the market tape defined by two things happening at once: a violent volatility shock concentrated in semiconductors, and an earnings season that is quietly the strongest in years. The Leopold liquidation drove SOX single-stock volatility to 75% much higher than the S&P 500 Index in general. With 305 of 498 S&P 500 companies reported for Q2 2026, sales are beating by 3.1% and earnings by 31.1%, and forward EPS is modeled to climb from trailing 294 per share to 374 per share, pulling the index P/E from 25.4...
info_outlineDerek Moore and Shane Skinner dig into what history says about September in a midterm election year, and why Mike Santoli argues investors should be on high alert heading into the month. Plus, a long look at federal receipts versus federal outlays as a percent of GDP and what top tax rates did and did not do to revenue, the widening spread between mega cap winners and losers in 2026, and a forward earnings check on Nvidia, Alphabet, Apple, Tesla, Costco, and the S&P 500 itself. All that and more this week.
S&P 500 September performance in midterm election years going back to 1928.
September is historically the weakest month, but midterm years have their own pattern.
Mike Santoli argues investors should be on high alert heading into September.
What being on high alert actually means for someone already invested and hedged.
Federal receipts and federal net outlays as a percent of GDP going back to the 1930s.
Outlays keep running above receipts, and that gap is where the deficit comes from.
The top individual income tax bracket has fallen from over 90% since the 1940s.
Higher top tax rates have not reliably produced higher receipts as a share of GDP.
Schwab data ranks 2026 performance and index contribution across the mega caps.
Micron leads the group up 226.8% while Tesla is down 22.5% as of August 28, 2026.
Apple at 17.6%, Nvidia at 16.6%, and Amazon at 15.4% beat the Nasdaq's 13.6%.
Meta is down 12.4% and sits near the bottom on contribution to the S&P 500.
Nvidia trades near 17 times forward earnings on estimates of $12.83 a share.
Alphabet sits near 19 times forward earnings versus Apple at over 33 times.
Tesla's forward P/E is above 180 while Costco holds near 41 times.
The S&P 500 near 7,689 on forward earnings estimates of about $394 a share.
That works out to roughly 19.4 times forward earnings for the index.
SpaceX vs Tesla forward price to earnings ratio
Are index level multiples reasonable when the leadership is this uneven?
Mentioned in this Episode
Santoli: Why investors should be on high alert heading into September https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/31/santoli-why-investors-should-be-on-high-alert-heading-into-september.html
Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT
Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt
Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag
Contact Derek [email protected]