S1/E58: Mashayekhi on Maladministration
Iran's Gambit
The central government in Iran, whether under the Pahlavi regime or the Islamic Republic, has historically provided institutionalized spaces for experts to engage in debates on technical—and occasionally political—issues aligned with state interests. These platforms, often manifesting as think tanks, policy research centers, and other quasi-official institutions, fulfill several critical functions: First, they channel dissent by allowing critics of government policies to articulate their objections within controlled environments, thus preventing such dissent from escalating into mass...
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S1/E57: IRGC Commander on Assad's Ineptitude and Putin's Treachery
Iran's Gambit
Commander Behrouz Esbati, the Public Affairs Director of the Joint Force Cyber Command, on January 7 centered his speech on his firsthand observations of the systemic collapse of the Assad regime. Approximately one hour of his speech was published by Tabnak News Agency, an outlet affiliated with Dr. Mohsen Rezaei, the longest-serving Chief Commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Commander Esbati's remarks can be categorized into two distinct sections. The first section presents an Iranian perspective on the progressive disintegration of the Syrian regime, including the...
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S1/E56: Iranians Connect to the Internet by Starlink
Iran's Gambit
There has always been a correlation, if not causality, between technological innovation and sociopolitical transformation: Gutenberg’s printing press catalyzed the Protestant Reformation, and from his exile in Iraq, Grand Ayatollah Rouhollah Khomeini famously utilized cassette tape recordings of his sermons to galvanize the Iranian populace against the Pahlavi regime during the 1970s. BBC Persian's radio service too aided the Iranian revolutionaries. The Internet similarly embodies revolutionary potential, a reality that underscores the Islamic Republic’s systematic strategies to regulate...
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S1/E55: Larijani Defends Iran's Track Record in Syria
Iran's Gambit
· On January 1, Dr. Ali , former Supreme National Security Council secretary, and adviser to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, defended Iran's track record in Syria. It is not known if Dr. Larijani's spin is only meant for the Iranian public, or he delivers the same message to Khamenei.
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S1/E54: Foreign Ministry vs. Quds Force Part II
Iran's Gambit
As the Islamic Republic commemorated the fifth anniversary of assassination of Quds Force Chief Major General Qassem Suleimani, many public figures, who had personal interactions with him delivered lengthy interviews discussing this near-mythical individual. On January 2nd, I discussed former Foreign Minister Mohammad-Javad Zarif's interview with Khorasan newspaper, and today, I'll discuss current Foreign Minister Seyyed Abbas Araghchi's interview. He delivered the interview on January 1, and my translation is based on the partial transcription released by Iran's al-Alam network. As you will...
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S1/E53: Foreign Ministry vs. Quds Force Part I
Iran's Gambit
Former Foreign Minister Dr. Mohammad-Javad Zarif's interview with January 1, 2025 edition of Khorasan newspaper not only provides some insights into his relationship with the late Quds Force Chief Major General Qassem, but also into inter-agency rivalry between the Foreign Ministry and the Quds Force. An audio recording, allegedly leaked to the media in 2021, provides greater insights into how the Quds Force undermined the Foreign Ministry's diplomatic efforts.
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S1/E52: Khamenei Commemorates Suleimani
Iran's Gambit
In the history of most countries, some eras appear more glorious than others. And at times, the past appears more glorious than what we expect of the future. This was my sense monitoring Iran's state-censored media today. Addressing the families of martyrs, including the family of Quds Force Chief Major General Qassem Soleimani, widows of Hezbollah fighters in Lebanon, and other affiliated groups, Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei delivered a speech commemorating the fifth anniversary of Soleimani's assassination. In his address, Ayatollah Khamenei reflected on the apex of...
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S1/E51: Dueling Rallies in Iran
Iran's Gambit
On December 30, Tehran witnessed two competing demonstrations emblematic of Iran's polarized political climate: one orchestrated by the regime and the other a spontaneous expression of public dissent triggered by the latest depreciation of the Iranian Rial against the U.S. Dollar. The state-organized rally aimed to commemorate the fifteenth anniversary of what the regime frames as "the sedition of 2009," a characterization starkly contrasting with global narratives that recognize this period as the Green Movement uprisings in Iran. As some may recall, Mr. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's re-election in...
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S1/E50: Tahrir al-Sham's Iranian Fighters - Radicals or Infiltrators?
Iran's Gambit
While presence of Iranian nationals among the Tahrir al-Sham Movement risks radicalizing the Sunnis in Iran, and therefore constitutes a security threat to the Islamic Republic, some of those radicals may be Intelligence Ministry infiltrators. However, infiltrators too can at times go rogue and pursue their self-interests.
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S1/E49: Why Did the Regime Shelve the "Hijab and Chastity Bill"?
Iran's Gambit
On December 15, Iran's Supreme National Security Council issued a statement announcing suspension of the so-called "Hijab and Chastity Law," formally known as the "The Bill Supporting Families By Propagating the Culture of Chastity and Hijab". The bill, which was passed on June 13, 2024, was the regime's reaction to anti-hijab protests in the wake of the September 16, 2022 killing of 22-year-old Ms. Mahsa Amini in the custody of the so-called "Morality Police". It was also a reaction to the fact that increasingly, many women ignore the requirements for covering their head with a scarf in...
info_outlineThe focus of today’s discussion is the November 14th meeting between Iran’s Ambassador to the United Nations, Mr. Amir Saeid Iravani, and Mr. Elon Musk, the prominent entrepreneur and perceived confidant of President-elect Donald J. Trump.
According to the November 14th edition of the New York Times, the two gentlemen engaged in discussions lasting over an hour at an undisclosed location. Subsequent reporting by other outlets revealed that the meeting occurred at Ambassador Iravani’s official residence in New York City. An unnamed source cited by the New York Times claimed that during the meeting, Ambassador Iravani urged Mr. Musk to pursue sanctions exemptions from the U.S. Department of the Treasury and consider extending some of his business ventures to Tehran.
The meeting has predictably caused significant debate within Tehran, where perceptions of Iran’s vulnerability to Israeli military actions have heightened concerns. Mr. Musk, likely motivated by his own economic interests, is seen as offering Tehran an opportunity to circumvent the Israel lobby in Washington, potentially opening a new chapter in U.S.-Iran relations. However, more cautious observers anticipate a potential rift between Mr. Musk and President Trump in the longer term. Should such a schism arise, it could empower pro-Israel factions within the incoming Trump administration to dominate U.S. national security policy-making. To judge by the media coverage, the meeting has also its critics in Iran, most prominently Kayhan newspaper. But just as remarkably, the Revolutionary Guard appears more cautious and has been largely silent.