Supplement 08 Sep 24 - The REAL housing problem
Release Date: 09/08/2024
UK Property Market 2026: Trumpomics, Renters' Rights & The Golden Quarter
Propenomix with Adam Lawrence
Are you ready for "The Golden Quarter"? In this episode, we take a deep dive into the critical window of opportunity opening up for property investors between now and May 1st, 2026. Adam Lawrence reviews the economic landscape at the close of 2025 and explains why the upcoming implementation of the Renters' Rights Act is triggering a strategic sell-off among amateur landlords. We break down the macroeconomic factors driving these changes—from the surprising resilience of "Trumpomics" and US GDP growth to the stark reality of the UK’s rental market and the "construction crisis" in...
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BoE Cuts to 3.75%: The "Output Trap," Rising Unemployment & The 2026 Investor Outlook
Propenomix with Adam Lawrence
The Bank of England has finally cut rates to 3.75%, but the razor-thin 5-4 vote signals that the battle against inflation is far from over. In this episode, we break down the latest "Propenomics" analysis of the UK economic landscape as we head into 2026. From the "Suicide by Unemployment" risk to the growing divide between public and private sector pay, we analyse why the BoE is behind the curve—and what that means for your portfolio. We also discuss the new realities of "Trumpomics," the "Output Trap," and why yield-chasing in London is becoming a dangerous game. Key Topics Discussed: ...
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The £2.8bn Homelessness Crisis, Trumpnomics & The 2026 Property Playbook
Propenomix with Adam Lawrence
Episode Summary: In this pivotal episode of Propenomix, Adam Lawrence bridges the gap between the immediate humanitarian crisis on our doorstep and the macroeconomic shockwaves shaping the global landscape. From the staggering £2.8 billion cost of the UK’s homelessness emergency to the return of "Trumpnomics" and its ripple effects on British property, this is an episode about cause, effect, and strategy. As we approach the festive season, the conversation begins with Homes for Christmas - not just as a sentiment, but as a critical look at the UK’s housing failure. We then pivot to the...
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UK Housing Deep Dive: The 30-Year Mortgage Trap & Construction Collapse
Propenomix with Adam Lawrence
Episode Description: Are we witnessing the hardening of structural fault lines in the UK housing market? In this episode, we break down the newly released English Housing Survey (EHS 2024-25) and critical November economic indicators. From the "temporal stretching" of mortgages to a construction sector "deep in the red," we reveal why the UK property landscape is becoming a high-risk, high-reward environment for investors—and a financial squeeze for everyone else. In this episode, we cover: The 30-Year Norm: Why 62% of First-Time Buyers are now locking into 30+ year terms just to enter the...
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Supplement 30 Nov 25 - The Greatest Trick the Devil Ever Pulled
Propenomix with Adam Lawrence
The Budget: What actually happened (vs. what they told you) The dust has settled on the Budget, but the rhetoric is still blinding the market. This week, we strip away the political spin and look at the raw math. From the "real" net migration figures to the Scottish rental data that is predicting the future of the English PRS—we are connecting the dots others are ignoring. In this episode: Trumpwatch: The macro impact you aren't seeing. The Budget Deep Dive: Assessments from the left and right (the ones that actually matter). Gilt & Swaps: The signal in the noise. ...
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2025 Budget LIVE! - Commentary as it happened
Propenomix with Adam Lawrence
Join Adam Lawrence and Duncan Hooper for a deep-dive analysis of the 2025 UK Budget in this special live-recorded episode of Propenomix. In what might be the most anticipated fiscal event in years, Adam and Duncan unpack the realities behind Chancellor Rachel Reeves' "Smorgasbord Budget" and what it truly means for property investors, business owners, and the wider UK economy. Cutting through the political noise and media spin, this discussion offers a critical look at the numbers that matter. Adam and Duncan explore the implications of frozen income tax thresholds, the controversial new...
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Supplement 23 Nov 25 - Let's get it over with
Propenomix with Adam Lawrence
****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX**** This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup: Trumpwatch The Real Time UK Property Market - what’s the score? The deep dive looks to how much pain we will all be in in a few days time, post-budget We also have, in the Macro section: Inflation - and a more orderly month The Rightmove Asking Price Index with the ONS Private Rents and House Prices alongside The PMIs and all relevant reports from S&P Global The Gilts and Swaps - natch On the Budget - we’ve endured...
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Supplement 16 Nov 25 - Just Fix It
Propenomix with Adam Lawrence
****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX**** This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup: Trumpwatch The Real Time UK Property Market - what’s the score? The deep dive looks at some specifics from the Bank of England meeting this month We also have, in the Macro section: The Labour Market Overview - unemployment! The RICS residential market report Growth - a free microscope with every Supplement! The Gilts and Swaps - ofc On the Bank of England report - I was at the Breakfast Briefing this week and that always...
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Supplement 09 Nov 25 - Close Shave
Propenomix with Adam Lawrence
****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX**** This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup: Trumpwatch The Real Time UK Property Market - what’s the score? The deep dive looks at the Bank of England meeting Monetary Policy Report and Rate Decision Meeting! We also have, in the Macro section: The PMIs - final numbers The Halifax House Price Index The ONS Economic Activity and Social Change report The Gilts and Swaps - natch On the Bank of England report - I go further and talk about what should be done in the...
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Supplement 26 Oct 25 - The lost decade
Propenomix with Adam Lawrence
****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX**** This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup: Trumpwatch The Real Time UK Property Market - what’s occurring? The deep dive shines the light on the London market alongside land prices nationwide, and what’s working and what isn’t. We also have, in the Macro section: Inflation - the most positive report for a while Prices - Rightmove asking prices, ONS house prices and rents The Flash PMIs and a return to limp growth The gilts and swaps, as always The deep dive...
info_outline****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX****
This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup:
Real-time market performance and insights
The follow up on the REAL housing situation - looking backwards, and in real time
Halifax's house prices as they accept defeat in their bearish predictions, as quietly as possible
The PMIs for August - good news overall
The BBA rate - reversion, and the lowest print for a while (which is still one that takes the breath - and the profit - away)
A solid week for the gilts - for the borrowers…..
And then......
Following on from last week, a deeper dive into the source data for housing in England, the real number of rental units in the private sector, and where the TRUE root cause of the problem lies - not just in the PRS, but in English housing in general.
What you know at the end is - even if there is to be a fix to the mix of problems, we will be Keeping Calm and Carrying On - Don’t fear Kier
Enjoy