The £2.8bn Homelessness Crisis, Trumpnomics & The 2026 Property Playbook

Episode Summary:

In this pivotal episode of Propenomix, Adam Lawrence bridges the gap between the immediate humanitarian crisis on our doorstep and the macroeconomic shockwaves shaping the global landscape. From the staggering £2.8 billion cost of the UK’s homelessness emergency to the return of "Trumpnomics" and its ripple effects on British property, this is an episode about cause, effect, and strategy.

As we approach the festive season, the conversation begins with Homes for Christmas - not just as a sentiment, but as a critical look at the UK’s housing failure. We then pivot to the global stage to analyze how US economic policy could dictate your mortgage rates, before landing on the ultimate actionable guide: The 2026 Property Playbook.

What You Will Learn in This Episode:

1. The £2.8bn Homelessness Crisis: A System at Breaking Point The figures are sobering. The cost of temporary accommodation and the management of homelessness has ballooned to an estimated £2.8 billion, a burden that is breaking local council budgets and failing the most vulnerable in society. But beyond the headlines, what are the structural failures driving this?

• The Supply Deficit: Why the current planning system and development incentives are failing to produce the social housing stock we actually need.

• The "Homes for Christmas" Reality: We discuss the human cost of the crisis during the holidays and the initiatives trying to bridge the gap.

• The Landlord’s Role: With the private rental sector (PRS) under pressure from regulation and tax changes, are private landlords being pushed out exactly when they are needed most to help house the nation? Adam breaks down the relationship between government policy and the shrinking supply of rental homes.

2. Trumpnomics: The Global Macro Effect on UK Property Economics does not happen in a vacuum. With the specter (or reality) of Donald Trump’s economic policies - "Trumpnomics" - returning to the fore, UK investors need to pay attention. The US economy is the engine of the world, and its decisions on tariffs, trade protectionism, and debt drive global bond yields.

• Inflation & Interest Rates: If Trumpnomics fuels US inflation through aggressive fiscal stimulus and tariffs, how long before that inflationary pressure crosses the Atlantic? We analyze the correlation between US Treasuries and UK Gilts - and what that means for your mortgage rates in 2025 and 2026.

• Trade Wars & Materials: How protectionist policies could impact the cost of construction materials and the wider UK economy.

• Currency Fluctuations: What a stronger dollar means for international investment into UK bricks and mortar.

3. The 2026 Property Playbook: Strategy for the Medium Term Real estate is a long game, but the next 18 to 24 months are critical. Adam lays out the 2026 Property Playbook, a strategic roadmap for investors looking to position themselves ahead of the next market cycle.

• Survive then Thrive: Navigating the tail end of the high-interest rate environment to ensure cash flow remains healthy.

• The 2026 Opportunity: Why 2026 is flagged as a key year for capital growth. We look at the historical property cycles and the indicators suggesting a supply-crunch-driven boom in specific regions.

• Asset Selection: Which property types will outperform? A look at why functional residential stock, HMOs in non-Article 4 areas, and specific commercial-to-residential conversions might be the winners of the next cycle.

• The Regulatory Landscape: Preparing your portfolio now for the EPC changes and renters' reform legislation that will be fully bedded in by 2026.

Why This Matters Now: The property market is currently full of mixed signals. Media headlines scream crash one day and boom the next. By understanding the Propenomix - the intersection of property and economics - you can filter out the noise. Whether you are a developer looking to understand the macro headwinds, a landlord concerned about the rental crisis, or an investor planning your next acquisition, this episode provides the data-driven clarity you need.

It is not just about buying houses; it is about understanding the world in which those houses exist. From the streets of Britain where the homelessness crisis plays out, to the policy rooms of Washington D.C., everything is connected.

Join the Conversation: Are you seeing the impact of the homelessness crisis in your local area? How are you preparing your portfolio for 2026? Let us know in the comments or reach out via LinkedIn.

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Disclaimer: The content of this podcast is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Property investment carries risks, and you should always conduct your own due diligence or consult with a qualified professional before making investment decisions.