Propenomix with Adam Lawrence
The UK's Premier Property, Business, Markets & Economics Podcast. With your host: Adam Lawrence
info_outline
UK Property Market 2026: Trumpomics, Renters' Rights & The Golden Quarter
01/01/2026
UK Property Market 2026: Trumpomics, Renters' Rights & The Golden Quarter
Are you ready for "The Golden Quarter"? In this episode, we take a deep dive into the critical window of opportunity opening up for property investors between now and May 1st, 2026. Adam Lawrence reviews the economic landscape at the close of 2025 and explains why the upcoming implementation of the Renters' Rights Act is triggering a strategic sell-off among amateur landlords. We break down the macroeconomic factors driving these changes—from the surprising resilience of "Trumpomics" and US GDP growth to the stark reality of the UK’s rental market and the "construction crisis" in Scotland . In this episode, you will learn: The "Golden Quarter" Explained: Why the period leading up to the full implementation of the Renters' Rights Act in May 2026 is creating a unique buying window for professional investors . Trumpomics & The Global Economy: How a 4.3% US GDP growth, driven by AI investment and tariffs, is rippling through to the UK economy and tech investment . UK Market Reality Check: A look at the 2025 stats, including 1.7 million listings, rising fall-throughs, and why Real Household Disposable Income (RHDI) is down despite GDP growth . The "Rachel" Case Study: A hypothetical look at why high-earning, "accidental" landlords may be forced to exit the market due to new possession grounds and regulatory fatigue . The 5 Ingredients of the Golden Quarter: Understanding how FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt), MEES regulations, and regulatory risk are reshaping return expectations . Key Quote: "Be greedy only when others are fearful." — Adam Lawrence (quoting Warren Buffett) on the mindset for professional investors in 2026 . Timestamps: 00:00 – Market Forecast & The 22% Price Surge 02:22 – Trumpomics: US GDP & Trade Wars 11:15 – UK Property Market Review: 2025 Statistics 24:36 – The Scottish Housing Crisis 36:03 – Deep Dive: What is "The Golden Quarter"? 52:40 – The 5 Ingredients Driving the Landlord Exodus Tune in to understand why the amateur exodus might be your professional opportunity. Buy workshop tickets: www.tinyurl.com/pbwnine
/episode/index/show/da2aa84f-8799-4167-9892-32b6c4c86c98/id/39583755
info_outline
BoE Cuts to 3.75%: The "Output Trap," Rising Unemployment & The 2026 Investor Outlook
12/24/2025
BoE Cuts to 3.75%: The "Output Trap," Rising Unemployment & The 2026 Investor Outlook
The Bank of England has finally cut rates to 3.75%, but the razor-thin 5-4 vote signals that the battle against inflation is far from over. In this episode, we break down the latest "Propenomics" analysis of the UK economic landscape as we head into 2026. From the "Suicide by Unemployment" risk to the growing divide between public and private sector pay, we analyse why the BoE is behind the curve—and what that means for your portfolio. We also discuss the new realities of "Trumpomics," the "Output Trap," and why yield-chasing in London is becoming a dangerous game. Key Topics Discussed: The BoE Rate Cut: Analyzing the split decision to cut to 3.75% and why the "Hawks" and "Doves" are divided. The Unemployment Trap: Unemployment breaks the 5% barrier (5.1%) while youth unemployment hits a staggering 16%. Trump 2.0 Trade Deals: How the UK is navigating "preferred partner" status and what 10% tariffs mean for manufacturing. Property Market Stats: Week 49 data shows sales are up, but fall-throughs remain sticky at 25.8%. Rental Market Warning: Why rental stock outside London is surging, and why investors must target 7-9% gross yields (North/Midlands) to survive high mortgage costs. The Private vs. Public Gap: Public sector pay is up 7.6%, while the private sector has shed nearly a quarter of a million jobs. Strategic Takeaway: The era of passive capital growth is paused. For 2026, the game is about active management and cash flow. We discuss why tenant retention is now your primary risk mitigation strategy and why mortgage rates for limited companies will likely settle in the mid-5% range. Buy your workshop tickets - Early Bird still available! www.tinyurl.com/pbwnine
/episode/index/show/da2aa84f-8799-4167-9892-32b6c4c86c98/id/39526475
info_outline
The £2.8bn Homelessness Crisis, Trumpnomics & The 2026 Property Playbook
12/17/2025
The £2.8bn Homelessness Crisis, Trumpnomics & The 2026 Property Playbook
Episode Summary: In this pivotal episode of Propenomix, Adam Lawrence bridges the gap between the immediate humanitarian crisis on our doorstep and the macroeconomic shockwaves shaping the global landscape. From the staggering £2.8 billion cost of the UK’s homelessness emergency to the return of "Trumpnomics" and its ripple effects on British property, this is an episode about cause, effect, and strategy. As we approach the festive season, the conversation begins with Homes for Christmas - not just as a sentiment, but as a critical look at the UK’s housing failure. We then pivot to the global stage to analyze how US economic policy could dictate your mortgage rates, before landing on the ultimate actionable guide: The 2026 Property Playbook. What You Will Learn in This Episode: 1. The £2.8bn Homelessness Crisis: A System at Breaking Point The figures are sobering. The cost of temporary accommodation and the management of homelessness has ballooned to an estimated £2.8 billion, a burden that is breaking local council budgets and failing the most vulnerable in society. But beyond the headlines, what are the structural failures driving this? The Supply Deficit: Why the current planning system and development incentives are failing to produce the social housing stock we actually need. The "Homes for Christmas" Reality: We discuss the human cost of the crisis during the holidays and the initiatives trying to bridge the gap. The Landlord’s Role: With the private rental sector (PRS) under pressure from regulation and tax changes, are private landlords being pushed out exactly when they are needed most to help house the nation? Adam breaks down the relationship between government policy and the shrinking supply of rental homes. 2. Trumpnomics: The Global Macro Effect on UK Property Economics does not happen in a vacuum. With the specter (or reality) of Donald Trump’s economic policies - "Trumpnomics" - returning to the fore, UK investors need to pay attention. The US economy is the engine of the world, and its decisions on tariffs, trade protectionism, and debt drive global bond yields. Inflation & Interest Rates: If Trumpnomics fuels US inflation through aggressive fiscal stimulus and tariffs, how long before that inflationary pressure crosses the Atlantic? We analyze the correlation between US Treasuries and UK Gilts - and what that means for your mortgage rates in 2025 and 2026. Trade Wars & Materials: How protectionist policies could impact the cost of construction materials and the wider UK economy. Currency Fluctuations: What a stronger dollar means for international investment into UK bricks and mortar. 3. The 2026 Property Playbook: Strategy for the Medium Term Real estate is a long game, but the next 18 to 24 months are critical. Adam lays out the 2026 Property Playbook, a strategic roadmap for investors looking to position themselves ahead of the next market cycle. Survive then Thrive: Navigating the tail end of the high-interest rate environment to ensure cash flow remains healthy. The 2026 Opportunity: Why 2026 is flagged as a key year for capital growth. We look at the historical property cycles and the indicators suggesting a supply-crunch-driven boom in specific regions. Asset Selection: Which property types will outperform? A look at why functional residential stock, HMOs in non-Article 4 areas, and specific commercial-to-residential conversions might be the winners of the next cycle. The Regulatory Landscape: Preparing your portfolio now for the EPC changes and renters' reform legislation that will be fully bedded in by 2026. Why This Matters Now: The property market is currently full of mixed signals. Media headlines scream crash one day and boom the next. By understanding the Propenomix - the intersection of property and economics - you can filter out the noise. Whether you are a developer looking to understand the macro headwinds, a landlord concerned about the rental crisis, or an investor planning your next acquisition, this episode provides the data-driven clarity you need. It is not just about buying houses; it is about understanding the world in which those houses exist. From the streets of Britain where the homelessness crisis plays out, to the policy rooms of Washington D.C., everything is connected. Join the Conversation: Are you seeing the impact of the homelessness crisis in your local area? How are you preparing your portfolio for 2026? Let us know in the comments or reach out via LinkedIn. Connect with Adam Lawrence & Propenomix: stay ahead of the curve with the latest insights, data analysis, and property strategies. 🔗 LinkedIn: Follow for daily insights and professional updates. 📺 YouTube: Watch the full video version of this podcast, plus deep dives into data and charts that we can't show on audio. Subscribe to The Weekly Newsletter: Get the top property news stories delivered straight to your inbox every week. Disclaimer: The content of this podcast is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Property investment carries risks, and you should always conduct your own due diligence or consult with a qualified professional before making investment decisions.
/episode/index/show/da2aa84f-8799-4167-9892-32b6c4c86c98/id/39438215
info_outline
UK Housing Deep Dive: The 30-Year Mortgage Trap & Construction Collapse
12/13/2025
UK Housing Deep Dive: The 30-Year Mortgage Trap & Construction Collapse
Episode Description: Are we witnessing the hardening of structural fault lines in the UK housing market? In this episode, we break down the newly released English Housing Survey (EHS 2024-25) and critical November economic indicators. From the "temporal stretching" of mortgages to a construction sector "deep in the red," we reveal why the UK property landscape is becoming a high-risk, high-reward environment for investors—and a financial squeeze for everyone else. In this episode, we cover: The 30-Year Norm: Why 62% of First-Time Buyers are now locking into 30+ year terms just to enter the market. Generational Divide: How the elderly now "Own England" (62% of outright owners are 65+), while working-age tenants remain captive. The Pricing Disconnect: Analyzing the massive 29.3% gap between seller expectations and actual sale prices. Construction in Crisis: The steepest downturn in 5.5 years (PMI 39.4) and what it means for housing supply. The Human Cost: Rising "structural unhappiness" and the fragility of the tenant base. Global Shocks: Trumponomics, tariffs, and the US/UK Economic Prosperity Deal. Links & Resources: 🎟️ Join the Workshop: #Propenomix #AdamLawrence #Property #Economics #UKHousing
/episode/index/show/da2aa84f-8799-4167-9892-32b6c4c86c98/id/39391510
info_outline
Supplement 30 Nov 25 - The Greatest Trick the Devil Ever Pulled
12/04/2025
Supplement 30 Nov 25 - The Greatest Trick the Devil Ever Pulled
The Budget: What actually happened (vs. what they told you) The dust has settled on the Budget, but the rhetoric is still blinding the market. This week, we strip away the political spin and look at the raw math. From the "real" net migration figures to the Scottish rental data that is predicting the future of the English PRS—we are connecting the dots others are ignoring. In this episode: Trumpwatch: The macro impact you aren't seeing. The Budget Deep Dive: Assessments from the left and right (the ones that actually matter). Gilt & Swaps: The signal in the noise. The Propenomix Verdict: The market is shifting. Are you positioned for it? 🎧 Listen now. Know a landlord with their head in the sand? Send them this episode. 🚀 Next Step: Don't just listen—prepare. Secure your seat at the Property Business Workshop and get the tactical edge:
/episode/index/show/da2aa84f-8799-4167-9892-32b6c4c86c98/id/39265060
info_outline
2025 Budget LIVE! - Commentary as it happened
11/29/2025
2025 Budget LIVE! - Commentary as it happened
Join Adam Lawrence and Duncan Hooper for a deep-dive analysis of the 2025 UK Budget in this special live-recorded episode of Propenomix. In what might be the most anticipated fiscal event in years, Adam and Duncan unpack the realities behind Chancellor Rachel Reeves' "Smorgasbord Budget" and what it truly means for property investors, business owners, and the wider UK economy. Cutting through the political noise and media spin, this discussion offers a critical look at the numbers that matter. Adam and Duncan explore the implications of frozen income tax thresholds, the controversial new electric vehicle excise duty, and the surprising lack of movement on Capital Gains Tax. They delve into the strategic nuances of the new "mansion tax" on properties over £2 million and dissect the government’s approach to the rental market, including the likely inflationary pressure on rents due to increased landlord costs. Beyond the headlines, this episode provides a unique, investor-focused perspective on: The "Black Hole" Narrative: Was the £22bn fiscal hole real or a political construct to justify tax hikes? Dividend Tax Hikes: A look at the 2% increase and its regressive impact on small business owners versus the "Amazon model" of aggressive reinvestment. The Property Market: Why the rental sector might see a "pass-through" of costs to tenants and how the freeze on thresholds affects market dynamics. Political Fallout: A sharp analysis of Kemi Badenoch’s standout performance in opposition and what it signals for the future political landscape. Economic Forecasts: Why the OBR's 1.5% growth forecast might be more realistic than the government's optimism, and what "fiscal headroom" really means for future borrowing. Whether you're a seasoned property investor, a business owner, or simply keen to understand the economic currents shaping the UK, this episode delivers the expert insight and "no-nonsense" analysis you need to navigate the post-budget landscape. Tune in for a session that goes beyond the dispatch box to reveal the real winners and losers of Budget 2025.
/episode/index/show/da2aa84f-8799-4167-9892-32b6c4c86c98/id/39205540
info_outline
Supplement 23 Nov 25 - Let's get it over with
11/26/2025
Supplement 23 Nov 25 - Let's get it over with
****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX**** This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup: Trumpwatch The Real Time UK Property Market - what’s the score? The deep dive looks to how much pain we will all be in in a few days time, post-budget We also have, in the Macro section: Inflation - and a more orderly month The Rightmove Asking Price Index with the ONS Private Rents and House Prices alongside The PMIs and all relevant reports from S&P Global The Gilts and Swaps - natch On the Budget - we’ve endured endless weeks and indeed months of speculation. Property and any asset owners look set to take it in the face. Will it be as painful as we think? I try to ascribe some probabilities to what will happen! Book workshop tickets:
/episode/index/show/da2aa84f-8799-4167-9892-32b6c4c86c98/id/39177310
info_outline
Supplement 16 Nov 25 - Just Fix It
11/18/2025
Supplement 16 Nov 25 - Just Fix It
****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX**** This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup: Trumpwatch The Real Time UK Property Market - what’s the score? The deep dive looks at some specifics from the Bank of England meeting this month We also have, in the Macro section: The Labour Market Overview - unemployment! The RICS residential market report Growth - a free microscope with every Supplement! The Gilts and Swaps - ofc On the Bank of England report - I was at the Breakfast Briefing this week and that always offers extra insight - insights this time round match with the macro figures of the week, Growth and Unemployment focused. How do they fix it? I tell them! Book workshop tickets:
/episode/index/show/da2aa84f-8799-4167-9892-32b6c4c86c98/id/39074170
info_outline
Supplement 09 Nov 25 - Close Shave
11/13/2025
Supplement 09 Nov 25 - Close Shave
****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX**** This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup: Trumpwatch The Real Time UK Property Market - what’s the score? The deep dive looks at the Bank of England meeting Monetary Policy Report and Rate Decision Meeting! We also have, in the Macro section: The PMIs - final numbers The Halifax House Price Index The ONS Economic Activity and Social Change report The Gilts and Swaps - natch On the Bank of England report - I go further and talk about what should be done in the budget from a fairness perspective, and also from the perspective of trying to control inflation to try and get the interest rate down so that we can burn less money on debt servicing!!!! Book workshop tickets:
/episode/index/show/da2aa84f-8799-4167-9892-32b6c4c86c98/id/39018005
info_outline
Supplement 26 Oct 25 - The lost decade
10/30/2025
Supplement 26 Oct 25 - The lost decade
****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX**** This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup: Trumpwatch The Real Time UK Property Market - what’s occurring? The deep dive shines the light on the London market alongside land prices nationwide, and what’s working and what isn’t. We also have, in the Macro section: Inflation - the most positive report for a while Prices - Rightmove asking prices, ONS house prices and rents The Flash PMIs and a return to limp growth The gilts and swaps, as always The deep dive gets into two reports, one from Savills and another from Hamptons, which focus on urban and greenfield development, and the London market and its fate over the past 10 years, and how that affects the surrounding areas. Book workshop tickets:
/episode/index/show/da2aa84f-8799-4167-9892-32b6c4c86c98/id/38840590
info_outline
Supplement Special Edition - Making Social Rent Housing Viable
10/24/2025
Supplement Special Edition - Making Social Rent Housing Viable
*****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX***** This AI-Generated episode was output from Google's NotebookLM, based on a single source - an influential and seriously comprehensive report about social housing that was recently published. The source paper is here: And I very much recommend you read it. However, it is an 81-page PDF so I wanted to share this and see if people found it useful. A deep-dive style summary, AI produced, limited work from the "chef" here - and hopefully it will spark some interesting debate and conversation. Please let me know what you think!
/episode/index/show/da2aa84f-8799-4167-9892-32b6c4c86c98/id/38766455
info_outline
Supplement 19 Oct 25 - Housing Completions Meltdown Incoming/Underway
10/22/2025
Supplement 19 Oct 25 - Housing Completions Meltdown Incoming/Underway
****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX**** This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup: Trumpwatch The Real Time UK Property Market - what’s cooking? The deep dive looks at a whole plethora of reports released in the past week about the sad state of our housing starts in the UK at this time. We also have, in the Macro section: The labour market numbers - (un)employment and inactivity Growth - a bit The MHCLG numbers on temporary accommodation - improving The deep dive gets into the state of the UK housing starts situation, from multiple different sources and angles. Spoiler alert - it is ugly! I also go into detail about some of the recent Bank of England speeches regarding the future path of the interest rate. Book workshop tickets:
/episode/index/show/da2aa84f-8799-4167-9892-32b6c4c86c98/id/38738380
info_outline
Supplement 12 Oct 25 - Solve the Black Hole with NO TAX INCREASES!
10/15/2025
Supplement 12 Oct 25 - Solve the Black Hole with NO TAX INCREASES!
****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX**** This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup: Trumpwatch The Real Time UK Property Market - what’s going on? The deep dive looks at a long and strong article about the mess at the Bank of England over Quantitative Tightening, and “how to fix the Black Hole”. We also have, in the Macro section: The construction PMIs for September - slightly less ugly The Halifax House Price Index The RICS Residential Market Report The deep dive gets into the details on Government funds and a sensible solution for saving tens of billions as we approach another miserable budget. THE ANSWER IS THERE, RACHEL - YOU JUST NEED TO READ IT AND GET IT DONE! Book workshop tickets:
/episode/index/show/da2aa84f-8799-4167-9892-32b6c4c86c98/id/38588745
info_outline
Supplement 05 Oct 25 - Viable?
10/07/2025
Supplement 05 Oct 25 - Viable?
****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX**** This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup: Trumpwatch The Real Time UK Property Market - what’s going on? The deep dive looks at a couple of reports - one from Zoopla about Housebuilding Viability and another from the Resolution Foundation regarding the difference 300k/homes/year would make. We also have, in the Macro section: The actual PMIs for September - ugly The Nationwide House Price Index with a REAL price update The Bank of England Money and Credit Report - healthy enough The gilts and swaps markets - of course The deep dive gets into the housing landscape situation and the scale of the challenge facing Steve Reed - and provides some objective data overall that will probably surprise you quite a lot……alongside a data blast roundup of some insightful figures released this week.
/episode/index/show/da2aa84f-8799-4167-9892-32b6c4c86c98/id/38497540
info_outline
Suppplement 28 Sep 25 - 3 years post-lettuce
10/06/2025
Suppplement 28 Sep 25 - 3 years post-lettuce
****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX**** This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup: Trumpwatch The Real Time UK Property Market - what’s going on? The deep dive looks at a couple of reports - one from Shelter, and another from the JRF - and commemorates 3 years post-lettuce, as well. We also have, in the Macro section: The Flash PMIs - not great The Rightmove House Price and Zoopla Rents Indices The ONS on Housing Purchase Affordability The gilts and swaps markets - of course The deep dive tries to assess credibility of Shelter’s recent research on social homes as they continue to pressure the Chancellor. The JRF claim they have better figures than the ONS. Then, we consign the lettuce to the history books one more time……
/episode/index/show/da2aa84f-8799-4167-9892-32b6c4c86c98/id/38476940
info_outline
Supplement 14 Sep 25 - Fairness?
09/15/2025
Supplement 14 Sep 25 - Fairness?
****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX**** This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup: Trumpwatch The Real Time UK Property Market - what’s going on? The deep dive is DEEP - firstly into recent UK Finance Data publications, rent affordability and then a bombshell of a report dropped by the Joseph Rowntree Foundation this week. We also have, in the Macro section: The Halifax House Price Index The RICS residential market report No-wth - that’s growth, when there is none The gilts and swaps markets - of course - a quieter week with a kick The deep dive gets into the JRF report titled - Rebalancing the housing market through tax reform. It isn’t one for those with weak stomachs. It does, however, contain a number of leaps of faith that are a bridge too far in my view - and as usual I don’t mince words Enjoy - and book your workshop tickets at
/episode/index/show/da2aa84f-8799-4167-9892-32b6c4c86c98/id/38219715
info_outline
Supplement 07 Sep 25 - All change
09/13/2025
Supplement 07 Sep 25 - All change
****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX**** This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup: Trumpwatch The Real Time UK Property Market - what’s going on? The deep dive had no choice - it goes to the heart of Raynergate and a new housing secretary We also have, in the Macro section: The Nationwide House Price Index The Bank of England Money and Credit Report The final PMIs for August - great news (selectively) The gilts and swaps markets - of course - quite the week The deep dive gets into the actual factual detail of the Rayner case and departure - which far too many seemed to avoid, suggesting this is a matter of opinion - it isn’t, the legislation is clear. However it is more about the aftermath and whether, indeed, she’ll be back. Enjoy - and book your workshop tickets at
/episode/index/show/da2aa84f-8799-4167-9892-32b6c4c86c98/id/38190980
info_outline
Supplement 31 Aug 25 - Ring my Bell
09/12/2025
Supplement 31 Aug 25 - Ring my Bell
****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX**** This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup: Trumpwatch The Real Time UK Property Market - what’s going on? The deep dive looks at more proposed taxes and the architect of some of these ideas….. We also have, in the Macro section: Right-to-Buy figures for 2024/25 The UK Household Costs Index The Rightmove Asking Price Index The gilts and swaps markets - of course - ratewatch The deep dive goes full campanologist this week and takes a close look at Torsten Bell, MP, and some of his dimmer and brighter ideas for tax reform. We really are going to see at least one of them enacted in late Autumn. Enjoy - and book your workshop tickets at
/episode/index/show/da2aa84f-8799-4167-9892-32b6c4c86c98/id/38190965
info_outline
Supplement 24 Aug 25 - The Only Way is Up
08/27/2025
Supplement 24 Aug 25 - The Only Way is Up
****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX**** This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup: Trumpwatch The Real Time UK Property Market - what’s going on? The deep dive looks at property taxes, CGT removal on primary residences, and the likes We also have, in the Macro section: Inflation once more gripping the nation The flash PMIs The ONS Private Rents and House Prices report The gilts and swaps markets - of course - ratewatch The deep dive gets into the Property Tax “reforms” and multiple leaks from the Treasury this week as they feel their way towards the budget, reading the braille as usual……. Enjoy - and book your workshop tickets at
/episode/index/show/da2aa84f-8799-4167-9892-32b6c4c86c98/id/37978905
info_outline
Supplement 17 Aug 25 - The QT Vanity Bonfire
08/23/2025
Supplement 17 Aug 25 - The QT Vanity Bonfire
****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX**** This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup: Trumpwatch The Real Time Market - what’s going on? The deep dive looks at the Bank of England’s Quantitative Tightening strategy We also have, in the Macro section: Unemployment and the labour market Growth - yes, growth! The RICS residential market report The gilts and swaps markets - of course - ratewatch The deep dive talks Bank of England money burning strategies - quite literally - and just how many tens of billions have been wasted that just haven’t needed to be in recent years. Will the bonfire continue when we can afford it the least? Genuinely the biggest scandal never talked about Enjoy - and book your workshop tickets at
/episode/index/show/da2aa84f-8799-4167-9892-32b6c4c86c98/id/37929145
info_outline
Supplement 10 Aug 25 - Split Decision
08/13/2025
Supplement 10 Aug 25 - Split Decision
****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX**** This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup: Trumpwatch The Real Time Market - how’s it looking? The deep dive looks at the Bank of England meeting and a historic moment We also have, in the Macro section: The final PMIs for July Halifax’s house price index amidst little fuss The real time snapshot of how the economy is really working The gilts and swaps markets - as always - ratewatch The deep dive gets right into the Bank of England Monetary Policy meeting and the full report that was delivered, and the 0.25% rate cut that emerged - if that’s all you took away from it, you missed the meat of the situation for sure - don’t worry, it is all here. Enjoy - and book your workshop tickets at
/episode/index/show/da2aa84f-8799-4167-9892-32b6c4c86c98/id/37794090
info_outline
Supplement 27 Jul 25 - Adjustment time?
08/03/2025
Supplement 27 Jul 25 - Adjustment time?
****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX**** This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup: Trumpwatch The Real Time Market - how’s the steam? The deep dive looks at several reports from Hamptons International and Savills, regarding different aspects of the market and future predictions We also have, in the Macro section: The flash PMIs - dry July? Rightmove’s House Price Index and another fuss UK Finance report on Q1 in the Buy-To-Let lending space The gilts and swaps markets - as always - ratewatch The deep dive dips into four separate reports this week - forecasts for growth in capital values and rents are being trimmed left, right and centre - but what about the next 5 years? And how about intergenerational injustice - or not? Find out inside Enjoy - and book your workshop tickets at
/episode/index/show/da2aa84f-8799-4167-9892-32b6c4c86c98/id/37650250
info_outline
Supplement 20 Jul 25 - Good Regulations?
07/22/2025
Supplement 20 Jul 25 - Good Regulations?
****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX**** This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup: Trumpwatch In place of the Real Time Market - the last crash and reflection The deep dive looks at the Mansion House Speech as we keep both eyes firmly on number 11 We also have, in the Macro section: Inflation - yep, and yep I told you so Unemployment - playing out as predicted The ONS private rents and house prices report The gilts and swaps markets - as always - ratewatch The deep dive stays in situ this week - the Mansion House speech has significant implications for the financial markets, but there are no massive changes - however, it is all looking to lead to more and more investment in property from larger players. What does that mean for the rest of us? Enjoy - and book your workshop tickets at
/episode/index/show/da2aa84f-8799-4167-9892-32b6c4c86c98/id/37501505
info_outline
Supplement 13th Jul 25 - We is broke, innit?
07/16/2025
Supplement 13th Jul 25 - We is broke, innit?
****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX**** This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup: Trumpwatch The Real Time UK Property Market - what’s going on? The deep dive looks at how much money we have, or haven’t, got over the coming decades as a country We also have, in the Macro section: The Halifax and Zoopla price indices - slowly upwards The RICS residential market report Growth - heh The gilts and swaps markets - as always - ratewatch The deep dive goes where I just have to this week. If you missed it, the OBR published a report which created a huge stir - we have got a couple of significant problems in the pipe, and the answers are in the report - but not the way they wrote it, frustratingly……Adam for PM? Enjoy - and book workshop tickets at
/episode/index/show/da2aa84f-8799-4167-9892-32b6c4c86c98/id/37424840
info_outline
Supplement 05 Oct 25 - Viable?
07/10/2025
Supplement 05 Oct 25 - Viable?
****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX**** This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup: Trumpwatch The Real Time UK Property Market - what’s going on? The deep dive looks at a couple of reports - one from Zoopla about Housebuilding Viability and another from the Resolution Foundation regarding the difference 300k/homes/year would make. We also have, in the Macro section: The actual PMIs for September - ugly The Nationwide House Price Index with a REAL price update The Bank of England Money and Credit Report - healthy enough The gilts and swaps markets - of course The deep dive gets into the housing landscape situation and the scale of the challenge facing Steve Reed - and provides some objective data overall that will probably surprise you quite a lot……alongside a data blast roundup of some insightful figures released this week.
/episode/index/show/da2aa84f-8799-4167-9892-32b6c4c86c98/id/38477040
info_outline
Supplement 06 Jul 25 - Be careful what you wish for
07/09/2025
Supplement 06 Jul 25 - Be careful what you wish for
****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX**** This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup: Trumpwatch The Real Time UK Property Market - what’s going on? The deep dive looks at just how wobbly the position is for Rachel Reeves in Number 11 after a torrid week We also have, in the Macro section: The Bank of England Money and Credit Report The Nationwide House Price Index - caused some fuss this week The Final PMI figures and some good news The gilts and swaps markets - as always - ratewatch The deep dive goes where we might be scared to go - if Reeves does go, who replaces her? What does that mean? Will Starmer himself be stabbed in the back faster than we were expecting? Which heroes or villains will be thrown into the mixer? Enjoy
/episode/index/show/da2aa84f-8799-4167-9892-32b6c4c86c98/id/37345090
info_outline
Supplement 29 Jun 25 - Ohhhhhhh, we're halfway there - H1 down
07/02/2025
Supplement 29 Jun 25 - Ohhhhhhh, we're halfway there - H1 down
****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX**** This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup: The deep dive looks at the next 1-3 years of house price growth, recent mortgage market changes and provides a comprehensive summary of what’s in the mixer, and what’s already happened We also have, in the Macro section: The flash PMIs - sluggish improvement ONS public opinions and social trends Homes England delivery figures and starts for 2024-25 fiscal year The deep dive gets stuck right into the one major consideration for housing market price movements - mortgages and credit availability. There have been some slow old pace changes afoot - why are they happening, what’s the plan (I believe there is one) and what will the outcome be on UK house prices, most importantly? Enjoy Workshop tickets:
/episode/index/show/da2aa84f-8799-4167-9892-32b6c4c86c98/id/37254725
info_outline
Supplement 22 Jun 25 - Hold on
06/25/2025
Supplement 22 Jun 25 - Hold on
****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX**** This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup: The deep dive looks at the Bank of England but it also tells you a story - the story of the yield curve We also have, in the Macro section: Inflation numbers - my favoured topic of the past 4.5 years Housing indices - the ONS and Rightmove UK Finance and their new format data and reports The deep dive gets into the Bank of England’s current mindset - concerned about geopolitical events, of course, but more concerned about the labour market that has suffered from the Labour budget policies - and then goes on to tell you what today’s market forecast is for the 5-year mortgage rate in 5 years time. I promise you it isn’t what you think it is! Enjoy Workshop tickets:
/episode/index/show/da2aa84f-8799-4167-9892-32b6c4c86c98/id/37145065
info_outline
Supplement 15 Jun 25 - The Spending Review
06/22/2025
Supplement 15 Jun 25 - The Spending Review
****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX**** This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup: The deep dive looks at the spending review with a heavy tilt on the housing element, of course We also have, in the Macro section: The labour market and Awful April’s report on jobs - going the wrong way The Growth report - and the real reasons behind the numbers The RICS residential market report - sideways in the short term And of course the gilts and swaps - our weekly staple. The deep dive gets into the meat of 134 pages of Spending Review - what did it all mean, what did it say, and what’s the actual plan for house building, energy upgrades and all of the rest of the economy over the next 5 years and beyond? Answers inside! I blend in some of the industry analysis alongside my own and keep an apolitical viewpoint (or at least, I try to!) Enjoy Workshop tickets:
/episode/index/show/da2aa84f-8799-4167-9892-32b6c4c86c98/id/37101885
info_outline
Supplement 8 Jun 25 - Social Homes - Whatever it takes?
06/15/2025
Supplement 8 Jun 25 - Social Homes - Whatever it takes?
****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX**** This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup: The deep dive looks at a draft report on the true scale of subsidy required to deliver 90k social rent homes each year in the UK. We also have, in the Macro section: Halifax and Nationwide’s respective price indices The Bank of England Money and Credit Report analysed The PMIs - final May numbers which were better than the drafts! And of course the gilts and swaps - weekly staple. The deep dive gets into the true reality of the Social Rent Home Delivery subsidy issue, as the current funding is a tiny fraction of what’s needed (about one eighth) in order to actually do what has been promised for many years - see this week’s quote. I add historical context to the permacrisis, and also some doses of reality to the proposed solutions - nevertheless, it is one of the more robust pieces of work I’ve reported on for some months. Enjoy Workshop tickets:
/episode/index/show/da2aa84f-8799-4167-9892-32b6c4c86c98/id/37013925