Propenomix with Adam Lawrence
The UK's Premier Property, Business, Markets & Economics Podcast. With your hosts: Adam Lawrence and Jay Howard. Expert Resident Guests: - Helen Chorley - Piotr Rusinek
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Supplement 04 May 25 - Go or no go
05/05/2025
Supplement 04 May 25 - Go or no go
****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX**** This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup: The deep dive looks at MHCLG figures on statutory homelessness duties, a Shelter report on trends in temporary accommodation, and Savills publication this week on the Housing Challenge as they prefer to call it! We also have, in the Macro section: The Nationwide House Price Index for April The Bank of England Money and Credit Report for “Stamp month” A precis of the local election results and what a Reform government would look like And the gilts and swaps rounding things off The deep dive this week looks at the reality of the situation in temporary accommodation, from both the official data and also a Shelter report on where it is going - which I must say, to me, looks to have a fairly conservative set of forecasts in it, particularly as new build delivery is still going down before it goes up. On that subject, Savills’ detailed forecast on the next 5 years of housing delivery makes very interesting reading, and summarises the salient points in the sector and around the 1.5m homes target very succinctly indeed. Enjoy Workshop tickets:
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Supplement 09 Mar 25 - Tension
03/26/2025
Supplement 09 Mar 25 - Tension
****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX**** This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup: The deep dive looks at a couple more reports - The Home Builders’ Federation Q4 pipeline report, and UK Finance’s report on Household Finances from Q4, both published this week. We also have, in the Macro section: The Halifax House Price Index The Bank of England Money and Credit Report - with something to watch out for and be aware of The final PMIs for February The gilts and swaps - bringing up the rear as always, with some extra commentary around what the Bank of England committee members have been doing and saying this week And in the deep dive...... The Home Builders Federation have the most marginal piece of good news - but planning permission is, of course, only the first piece of the jigsaw. UK Finance is similarly somewhat positive - but, the story is the same really. We are coming back from a tough position in general….2023 was a tough old year and 2024 was a year of relatively slow repair, basically! What you know at the end is - as ever-present, we will be Keeping Calm and Carrying On throughout 2025 - we SPRING towards the stamp duty deadline and the reintroduction of the 2% band - we need to Keep Calm and Carry On. 3 weeks until the Spring Statement! Enjoy Workshop tickets: Deal-finding course:
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Supplement 02 Mar 25 - Meaningful PRS Research!
03/04/2025
Supplement 02 Mar 25 - Meaningful PRS Research!
****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX**** This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup: The deep dive looks at a couple more reports - Zoopla’s efforts for the month which get into flats and houses, and the differences - and I attempt to add some depth, and then a great report from the Nationwide Foundation about the Private Rental Sector - the best I’ve read, bar none. We also have, in the Macro section: The Nationwide House Price Index Confidence - and the return of it, or a couple of green shoots anyway The ONS Private Rents and House Prices report The gilts and swaps - bringing up the rear as always, with reasonable news. And in the deep dive...... Zoopla’s report on pricing for January that was released in February contains some revelations about the price of flats and how much cheaper they are than houses. We are heading to a world where a house is twice the price of a flat. However - I ask the questions to take it to the next level of detail - are flats much less attractive, comparatively, than they were? As investment propositions, I primarily mean……before you even start on cladding, fire, rocketing service charges…….you get the picture. Then the Nationwide Foundation, and their report on “Systemic change” in the PRS - this report asks so many important questions, and whilst I critique with the red pen as usual, I’m full of praise for those even asking these questions. Real progress from an organisation without an agenda, that’s well funded - heartwarming to say the least. What you know at the end is - as ever-present, we will be Keeping Calm and Carrying On throughout 2025 - we SPRING towards the stamp duty deadline and the reintroduction of the 2% band - we need to Keep Calm and Carry On (and for our conveyancers to get on with it, if we are buying anything right now!) Enjoy Workshop tickets: Deal-finding course:
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Supplement 23 Feb 25 - Inflation back to the REAL target
02/25/2025
Supplement 23 Feb 25 - Inflation back to the REAL target
****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX**** This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup: The deep dive looks at a couple of reports that have been on my hit list for some time. One from the centre, and one from left of centre - firstly, the hotel of mum and dad; then the positive changes in housing circumstances for young people in Britain over the past decade (and my idea of irony on that subject). We also have, in the Macro section, in “mega week”: The ONS Labour Market Report INFLATION - and just how “Back” it is. The flash PMIs, of course…… The gilts and swaps - a week that really could have been worse. And in the deep dive...... The Institute for Fiscal Studies report entitled “Hotel of Mum and Dad” released last month looks specifically at the area of those aged 25-34 “co-living” with Mum and Dad, and how it varies, how it has changed in recent years, and some of the drivers of the changes. I get stuck into it. Then the Resolution Foundation, whilst really wanting to write an article about just how hard the younger working families on middle and low incomes have got it, found themselves forced to conclude that the past decade has meant steps forward, rather than steps backward, for this group of the population. I get stuck into that too! What you know at the end is - as ever-present, we will be Keeping Calm and Carrying On throughout 2025 - job worries, inflation wobbles, a cratering manufacturing sector and Andrew Bailey’s warnings of weak growth - we need to Keep Calm and Carry On Enjoy Workshop tickets: Deal-finding course:
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Supplement 16 Feb 25 - Growth surprise?
02/17/2025
Supplement 16 Feb 25 - Growth surprise?
****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX**** This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup: The deep dive goes back in for a second bite of the cherry on the Bank of England Monetary Policy report that accompanied the meeting the week before; plus the invaluable insight that I get directly from the regional rep of the Bank at the Quarterly briefings. He speaks to the committee directly - and let’s face it, that’s as close as I’m getting at any point in the near future. We also have, in the Macro section: The RICS Residential Market Survey The ONS full report on Growth and the “upside miss” - party time? A bonus productivity report on the public sector and specifically healthcare and……. The gilts and swaps - a week that really could have been worse. And in the deep dive...... The Bank of England changed a whole number of forecasts compared to where they were 3 months before. It was an eventful quarter. I’m not convinced they’d done their budget homework before they released their November report - but what are these adjustments, and what do they mean for interest rates, and the property market in general? There’s detail - real detail - you have been warned! What you know at the end is - as ever-present, we will be Keeping Calm and Carrying On throughout 2025 - We will get there, responsibly, even with a bit more inflation, slightly higher rates than many were promising, and of course the ever-changing legislative landscape that seeks to frighten everyone that little bit more each week…….. Enjoy Workshop tickets: Deal-finding course:
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Supplement 9 Feb 25 - Step Change?
02/15/2025
Supplement 9 Feb 25 - Step Change?
****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX**** This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup: The deep dive has no choice - there’s the most fundamental switch in approach from one of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee members that there has been in - a LONG time - and it needs discussion at an appropriate level. Does it mean that interest rates are dropping faster than some misery guts - Propenomix included - have been saying? We also have, in the Macro section: The Halifax House Price Index The PMIs - my darlings of the real time economy The BBA mortgage rate The gilts and swaps - a week for the scrapbook. And in the deep dive...... Rachel seemed to get buried again this week as the rhetoric all swung to what loyal readers and listeners to the Supplement already knew - as I’ve been screaming - these incredibly positive growth forecasts need to come DOWN. She was naive to claim that little victory last week when the IMF upgraded the UK growth forecast from 1.7% to 1.8% as the Bank of England DOWNgraded it massively in their most recent forecast (interestingly, to exactly where I predicted it would be around 2 months ago). But does the whole story add up? Does my version of it all add up? I run the ruler over it, in detail, on the back of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Report - a quarterly event, which led to a 0.25% cut in the Base Rate on Thursday. What you know at the end is - as ever-present, we will be Keeping Calm and Carrying On throughout 2025 - We will get there, responsibly, even if we have to cope with the slings and arrows of outrageous policy, productivity and growth numbers! Enjoy Workshop tickets: bit.ly/pbw6 Deal-finding course: bit.ly/sourcingsolved2025
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Supplement 2 Feb 25 - The New Dawn?
02/03/2025
Supplement 2 Feb 25 - The New Dawn?
****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX**** This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup: The deep dive goes long - Rachel Reeves is going “Further and Faster” - no, not out the door of Number 11 as some have been hoping - but for GROWTH We also have, in the Macro section: The Nationwide House Price Index (and affordability report) - in detail The Bank of England Money and Credit Report - with implications The ONS real-time report on Economic Activity and Social Change in the UK - and how we are stacking up compared to 5+ years ago The gilts and swaps - an orderly and directionally sweet week. And in the deep dive...... Rachel Reeves Resurrection, Rallying Cry, Roar, Respite from Negativity - call it what you will. Crumbs for the North and Midlands, and Gold for the South? No wonder they dropped the levelling up chat, eh? But no - apparently you can build runways and gigantic developments in the countryside but it all be congruent with net zero? That seems like a big lie, to be honest - BUT, however they are going to navigate that bit, these moves are absolutely in the right direction. Make no mistake. Reeves 2.0 looks a vast improvement (yes, from a low bar of a start). Expect Rachel to no longer look like she’s been dug up when you see her in the media - she’s in the ascendancy now, but now we will find out what mettle (and ability) lies behind the padded CV and the rhetoric. Spring looks BIG. What you know at the end is - as ever-present, we will be Keeping Calm and Carrying On throughout 2025 - We will get there, regardless of the best or worst efforts of the current Government! Enjoy Buy workshop tickets - Explore Sourcing Solved:
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Supplement 26 Jan 25 - This Guy
01/28/2025
Supplement 26 Jan 25 - This Guy
****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX**** This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup: The deep dive goes for the trifecta this week - an interesting but strange Hamptons report about the rental market - a fascinating piece about a Community Rent Model - and some musings on the “big debate” I was involved in this week. We also have, in the Macro section: (Un)employment - that week of the month. Weak? Confidence (or more accurately, lack thereof) The flash PMIs - my favourite real time indicator of economic health (or sickness) The gilts and swaps - a relatively idyllic week And in the deep dive...... Hamptons make sense of the English Housing Survey data alongside their own, particularly around the percentage of rent paid by people of a certain age. They also examine the effect of the withdrawal of the Help-to-Buy scheme The work and brainchild of a Labour councillor who did incredible work in Social Housing starts, but seems to have an answer that needs MUCH more airtime than it has received thus far. Hence the Supplement! My reflections on the debate I had this week with Samuel Leeds, property training business owner. This premieres after the Supplement goes to print and air, so there are no spoilers, don’t worry - you’ll have to watch it for that! What you know at the end is - as ever-present, we will be Keeping Calm and Carrying On throughout 2025 - We will get there, regardless of the best or worst efforts of the current Government! Enjoy
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Supplement 19 Jan 25 - Storm in a Teacup
01/20/2025
Supplement 19 Jan 25 - Storm in a Teacup
****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX**** This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup: The deep dive goes into the low and high pay report from the ONS - with some unreported but eye-opening headlines - and also takes a look at the 6-monthly ONS migration report in a significant level of detail We also have, in the Macro section: Inflation - you know it - and downside misses on forecasts Growth, Growth, Growth - and the microscopes needed to find it The ONS Private Rents and House Prices report, always illuminating The gilts and swaps - and why last week’s advice not to panic has played out well, and will continue to do so in my view - with some bonus content here too And in the deep dive...... The ONS keeps on delivering interesting reports and I keep ploughing through them. How many people are now low paid in the UK as a percentage, using the official OECD definition? It looks great - why have we not been shouting about it from the rooftops? What about the high-paid - have we created those high-pay, high-skill jobs that were promised some time back by the guy with the hair? Then - migration - the most comprehensive look I’ve ever taken at this subject that defines the shape of the rental market in the UK for many years to come. Hopefully I’ve answered some questions that you might have been asking, and some you might not realise that you wanted to ask, but are interested in What you know at the end is - as ever-present, we will be Keeping Calm and Carrying On throughout 2025 - Rachel, you had a good week, keep driving those yields down - pretty please? Enjoy Learn more about the Sourcing Course:
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Supplement 12 Jan 25 - C'mon Rachel
01/14/2025
Supplement 12 Jan 25 - C'mon Rachel
****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX**** This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup: The deep dive goes into the household and national balance sheets - lifting the lid on how good, or bad, the UK finances as a whole truly are. As a bonus, we look at UK Finance’s forecasts for 2025 and 2026 when it comes to lending, and specifically buy-to-let of course. We also have, in the Macro section: The Halifax House Price Index and their take on 2025 The Services and Construction PMI final prints for December and the Composite Index, with the bearish comments thrown in The Bank of England BBA Mortgage rate data and the decision maker panel forecasts for 2025 The gilts and swaps - and some real meat (remember to chew it well, you may want 2 or 3 reads of this section…..) about the yields and what’s really going on - and what it means, and why I’m not panicking. Yet And in the deep dive...... The ONS once a year - usually, in business as usual times - produce a Balance Sheet for the UK and establish “our” net worth - including the households as the primary holders of the vast majority of the wealth. How much is it? How did it move? How bankrupt - or not - is the UK? What’s it all made up of, anyway (I know you can guess what a very decent slug of it is made up of……) UK Finance - who have all the lender data - produce a detailed forecast of the key numbers in the mortgage market for 2025, including net lending, repossessions, arrears, and remortgaging (or lack of it, as there has been over recent years) What you know at the end is - as ever-present, we will be Keeping Calm and Carrying On throughout 2025 - Rachel, we need you to step up Enjoy Buy workshop tickets at: bit.ly/pbwfive
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Supplement 5 Jan 25 - A New Start
01/06/2025
Supplement 5 Jan 25 - A New Start
****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX**** This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup: The Resolution Foundation’s recent report “Housing Hurdles” gets the full treatment in the deep dive today. The Nationwide House Price Index and surprises or lack thereof The Manufacturing PMI final print for December and glum accompanying commentary The Bank of England Money and Credit report for November and the first backward step for a while - but, in context, of course The gilts and swaps - in another thin trading week, be careful…… And in the deep dive...... The Resolution Foundation made waves with their recent report because they chose a headline about how much home ownership had improved for millennials in the previous decade. This was no surprise to me as I follow the actual figures rather than the media hype - but there’s plenty of interest including their analysis and methodology right under the microscope this week, as I go into detail about how I think a really robust piece of work would go about making comparisons with 35 years ago. What you know at the end is - as ever-present, we will be Keeping Calm and Carrying On throughout 2025 - 1 down, 51 to go……. Enjoy Workshop tickets at
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Supplement 29 Dec 24 - Limbo Week
01/01/2025
Supplement 29 Dec 24 - Limbo Week
****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX**** This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup: Hamptons International weigh in with another couple of well-researched Property market reports Zoopla takes us into 2025 with their roundup of 2024 as they saw it The Macro roundup for the quarter from the ONS Business Investment - going well, for Q3 - fingers crossed Retail sales and a surprise for the fortunes of online retail, perhaps? The gilts and swaps - in a thin trading week, so be careful…… And in the deep dive...... Hamptons deep-dive into stamp duty, and the changes which are now 10 years old - and the changes coming again in April Hamptons December market update with predictions for next year and some useful stats on completions before the deadline Zoopla predict a 2.5% increase in capital growth for 2025 - with more transactions than 2024 as well And after all that - I reveal the first look at MY predictions for 2025 on all the important macro numbers - plus house prices and rents. How close will I get this time around….??? What you know at the end is - as ever-present, we will be Keeping Calm and Carrying On into 2025 - remember, even a stopped clock is right twice a day so some of the political decisions will go well next year! Enjoy BUY workshop tickets at bit.ly/pbwfive
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Supplement 22 Dec 24 - Black-Eye Friday
12/22/2024
Supplement 22 Dec 24 - Black-Eye Friday
****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX**** This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup: The Bank of England meeting minutes - in detail - as rates HOLD once more The ONS Private Rents and House Prices report and some records broken….. The real time market and how it is going - bringing it home for a year that will see 1.7 million homes hit the open market The Flash PMIs and the stark picture painted by the analysts The Jobs Report - what’s the direction of travel? Inflation, a rant, and the truth - no hype here The gilts and swaps - in a volatile week And in the deep dive...... The Bank votes 6-3 to hold the rate - why, and what’s troubling them. Who are the allies in getting that rate down!? The ONS private rents and house prices report - the truth for 2024 versus the negativity, and the hot - and not - regions of the UK What you know at the end is - as ever-present, we will be Keeping Calm and Carrying On with Xmas - don’t let the incongruent politicians grind you down, have a good one! Enjoy BUY Workshop tickets:
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Supplement 15 Dec 24 - Mortgages and Rents
12/16/2024
Supplement 15 Dec 24 - Mortgages and Rents
****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX**** This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup: FCA quarterly mortgage data - always enlightening. Zoopla’s rental market report - extremely well-balanced and full of decent info The real time market and how it is going - chugging along to the end of a year that’s surprised many of the commentators, still Growth (or lack thereof) Consumer Confidence - doing well in the face of point one RICS and their residential market survey, which has finally caught up with reality, it is good to note The gilts and swaps - and another disappointing week, but another silver lining as well….. And in the deep dive...... An end to the trends seen in recent mortgage data, apart from one important one - the lack of buy-to-let new mortgages…… Zoopla’s rental index telling us what’s going on in real time in the rental market for new rents - with some very sensible predictions for the rental market over the coming years as well, alongside the real governors in that market. What you know at the end is - as ever-present, we will be Keeping Calm and Carrying On - whilst Reform takes the lead in the polls, Labour keep talking about “reform” - when will they realise they need to change the narrative! Enjoy Buy workshop tickets at Make sure you don't miss an episode, subscribe to our YouTube Channels and listen on the go to the Propenomix Podcast. We talk property, finance and economics to keep you in the mix! Subscribe to the Propenomix YouTube Channel 🟢 Subscribe to the Propenomix Podcast 🟣 Read the Sunday Supplement from Adam Lawrence every week on the link below 🔵 #Propenomix #AdamLawrence #PIP #Property #Business #Economics #Markets
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Supplement 8 Dec 24 - The Most Influential Survey
12/11/2024
Supplement 8 Dec 24 - The Most Influential Survey
****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX**** This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup: The English Housing Survey is OUT - and I analyse the exec summary and chapter 1, in detail. Some “data surprises” in there! The real time market and how it is going - chugging along to the end of a year that’s surprised many of the commentators Halifax and Nationwide House Price Indices The BRC retail sales monitor - a car crash? Why? The PMIs - not QUITE as bad as the flash figures, but still miserable The gilts and swaps - a snap to end the run of down weeks, but how bad - or not - was it? And in the deep dive...... A geek smorgasbord of data as the English Housing Survey is released and I take a close look at the demographics, and breakdown across tenures - the data doesn’t find sensationalist headlines, and the story is “more of the same” to a large extent, with some surprising trends. What you know at the end is - as ever-present, we will be Keeping Calm and Carrying On - Kier has had a re-boot, when a lot of us would prefer he just got the boot - but be careful what you wish for, what’s waiting in the wings is not economic paradise but “lettuce part deux” if we are not careful…… Enjoy Workshop tickets for 16th Jan at: http://bit.ly/pbwfive
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Supplement 1 Dec 24 - The Final Stretch
12/02/2024
Supplement 1 Dec 24 - The Final Stretch
****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX**** This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup: Zoopla’s predictions for 2025 - but how did they do for 2024? They don’t directly compare, so I do……. The real time market and how it is going - promising signs still Consumer and business confidence under the microscope The Retail Sales The Bank of England Money and Credit Report - how are mortgages going? What about household debt overall? The gilts and swaps - a better week again, keep these coming And in the deep dive...... Zoopla’s House Price Index including 2025 predictions The Bank of England Financial Policy Committee also published their Financial Stability Report - a detailed analysis of where we are sitting and what the stress test results look like. What to watch out for! What you know at the end is - as ever-present, we will be Keeping Calm and Carrying On - The OBR has predicted 2% growth for 2025, and that looks extremely hopeful for the moment……but let’s stay positive and open-minded……. Enjoy
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Supplement 24 Nov 24 - Affordability Examined
11/29/2024
Supplement 24 Nov 24 - Affordability Examined
****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX**** This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup: Affordability - how bad is it, historically? How good (and timely) is the data? The real time market and how it is going - reasonably, is the answer Inflation numbers in detail The ONS private rents and house prices The PMIs - what’s the real time picture of economic activity? The gilts and swaps - a better week And in the deep dive...... The ONS affordability report on rentals, dissected in detail Zoopla’s most recent affordability report put side-by-side, with some decent analysis and interesting conclusions What’s the conversation that none of them dares to have? Find out… What you know at the end is - as ever-present, we will be Keeping Calm and Carrying On - let’s see this Stability that we keep hearing about……at the moment the only thing stable is the economic growth rate (at 0%)....... Enjoy
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Supplement 17 Nov 24 - Growth, Growth, Oops
11/20/2024
Supplement 17 Nov 24 - Growth, Growth, Oops
****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX**** This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup: Long term mortgage rates - what’s going to happen now? The real time market and how it is going Growth - or lack thereof The RICS residential market survey Unemployment - why the massive increase? The gilts and swaps - calmer waters And in the deep dive...... The Bank of England quarterly meeting regional report - and my input/interaction The Mansion House speech by the Chancellor - any good? My thoughts on growth in this parliament - perhaps better than you might be expecting….. What you know at the end is - as ever-present, we will be Keeping Calm and Carrying On - let’s see this Stability that we keep hearing about…… Before I call it one more time, a reminder that tickets for the next Property Business Workshop are OUT - Thursday January 16th 2025 (Wowsers), with some great subject matter - planning, efficiencies, and also financial accounting and bookkeeping - not “how to use Xero” but how to ensure reporting is SET UP correctly and how to monitor it on an effective, ongoing, monthly basis. Come along and also get your strategic planning sorted out, and your January kick up the backside comes as part of the package as well! SUPER Early Bird tickets are available with a 25%+ face value discount on them - once they are gone they are gone, there are half a dozen or so left. These events DO sell out. Rod and I hope to see you there. Buy one here:
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Supplement 10 Nov 24 - Eyes to '25
11/13/2024
Supplement 10 Nov 24 - Eyes to '25
****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX**** This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup: The Rates were cut! But did you even notice, with the amount of noise. What does it mean for mortgage rates? The real time market and how it is going The Retail Sales Figures The Halifax House Price Index The PMIs finalised for October with some predictions, and jobs numbers The gilts and swaps - thankful for small wins? And in the deep dive...... The Quarterly Bank of England Monetary Policy Report - dissected The future of inflation, interest rates, unemployment, rents and house prices in 2025 and beyond - everything you need! A few words about “The Donald” - I had to……. What you know at the end is - as ever-present, we will be Keeping Calm and Carrying On - Stability beckons, if Geopolitics can hold on…….. Enjoy
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BUDGET SPECIAL Supplement - Rachel Thieves?
11/06/2024
BUDGET SPECIAL Supplement - Rachel Thieves?
BUDGET SPECIAL - the most awaited economic and property analysis of the UK Budget from my Sunday Supplement on 3rd November 2024 The Budget - Macro, and Property. What will it do to the economy? PLUS: The real time market and how it is going The Bank of England Money and Credit report - mortgages, money supply, rates The Nationwide House Price Index The Manufacturing PMI and a little dip The gilts and swaps - black armband week, folks And in the deep dive...... The Employers’ National Insurance Contribution - what will happen? Stamp duty - a punch in the gut, or an opportunity? Most importantly of all - what do we do next? What you know at the end is - as ever-present, we will be Keeping Calm and Carrying On - Has Rachel earned her nickname of “Rachel Thieves”? You will decide…. Enjoy
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Supplement 3 Nov 24 - Rachel Thieves?
11/04/2024
Supplement 3 Nov 24 - Rachel Thieves?
****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX**** This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup: The Budget - Macro, and Property. What will it do to the economy? The real time market and how it is going The Bank of England Money and Credit report - mortgages, money supply, rates The Nationwide House Price Index The Manufacturing PMI and a little dip The gilts and swaps - black armband week, folks And in the deep dive...... The Employers’ National Insurance Contribution - what will happen? Stamp duty - a punch in the gut, or an opportunity? Most importantly of all - what do we do next? What you know at the end is - as ever-present, we will be Keeping Calm and Carrying On - Has Rachel earned her nickname of “Rachel Thieves”? You will decide…. Enjoy
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Supplement 13 Oct 24 - Tax, Investment and Efficiency
10/16/2024
Supplement 13 Oct 24 - Tax, Investment and Efficiency
****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX**** This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup: The Halifax House Price index The RICS house price balance in detail - even the surveyors have woken up GDP Growth for August and September forecasts An annoying week for the gilts but our surprising gap is widening - and an addition to this section. And in the deep dive...... Rachel Reeves and infrastructure investment - and the UK’s investment in general - and some progress, we hope, but nervy bond markets The ONS reported this week on English and Welsh energy efficiency - the bits of the report you need to know and the implications. What you know at the end is - as an ever-present, we will be Keeping Calm and Carrying On - Don’t fear Kier, he’s too busy with Freebies Enjoy
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Adam is interviewed by Anna Clare Harper on "The Return"
10/15/2024
Adam is interviewed by Anna Clare Harper on "The Return"
It was a pleasure talking with Anna on her podcast and she's kindly let me share the file here! We covered a lot of ground including: The pros and cons of directly owning residential investments in the current economic and regulatory environment What returns should you be targeting right now, over what timeframe The pros and cons of a ‘passive’ property portfolio, and how investors can diversify their income without taking on a second job Common mistakes investors make - and how to avoid them Thanks to Cohort Invest for their sponsorship and to Anna and her team for what was a very enjoyable conversation!
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Supplement 06 Oct 24 - What a plaque
10/07/2024
Supplement 06 Oct 24 - What a plaque
****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX**** This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup: Statistical trickery in the housing market and why you shouldn’t trust “guesswork” Nationwide House Price index and the quarterly report The in-the-now performance of the economy in the PMIs and revised growth figures Mortgage approvals and the money supply - and everything in between when it comes to ££££ An annoying week for the gilts but our surprising gap is widening - long may it last….. And in the deep dive...... Interest rates! What’s gone on this week - we are due for an avalanche, aren’t we? PLUS - the REAL and proper rate of interest, and my predictions for all the relevant rates over the coming 12 months What you know at the end is - as an ever-present, we will be Keeping Calm and Carrying On - Don’t fear Kier, he’s too busy with Freebies Enjoy
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Supplement 29 Sep 24 - Opportunity knocks?
10/05/2024
Supplement 29 Sep 24 - Opportunity knocks?
****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX**** This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup: Real-time market performance and insights as always Retail Sales The in-the-now performance of the economy in the PMIs Business confidence and reality A boring week for the gilts but a surprising gap is opening and staying open - long may it last….. And in the deep dive...... Labour Party Conference writeup Our busiest day for the number of deals done for several years - are we mad? The reality of the “solutions” proposed to our housing market What you know at the end is - as an ever-present, we will be Keeping Calm and Carrying On - Don’t fear Kier Enjoy
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Supplement 22 Sep 24 - Spotlights in the wrong places
09/23/2024
Supplement 22 Sep 24 - Spotlights in the wrong places
*PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX* This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup: Real-time market performance and insights as always Inflation - and the untold parts that other analysts don’t reach The Bank of England Interest Rate meeting Consumer Confidence and the evaporation (and near wilful destruction) of it - who carries that Kan? A miserable week for the gilts - for the borrowers….. And in the deep dive...... FCA Quarterly mortgage data - arrears creep up, but it has slowed down to a creep, from a charge - and all that you need to know The Bank of England Quantitative Tightening policy, and what they are getting spectacularly wrong, in plain sight, with NO-ONE talking about it! What you know at the end is - without a shadow of a doubt, we will be Keeping Calm and Carrying On - Don’t fear Kier Enjoy
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Supplement 15 Sep 24 - Rights and Wrongs
09/15/2024
Supplement 15 Sep 24 - Rights and Wrongs
*PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX* This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup: Real-time market performance and insights The Renters’ Rights Bill - the questions and intentions The RICS surveyors survey in detail Growth and Employment in the UK A goldilocks week for the gilts - for the borrowers….. So in the deep dive...... Renters’ rights - what ARE the Government trying to achieve? What will the real consequences be? How easily will behaviour adapt to work within a new rules framework? Can buy-to-let still work? What do the mortgage lenders think about this? What you know at the end is - even if there is to be a fix to the mix of problems, we will be Keeping Calm and Carrying On - Don’t fear Kier Enjoy
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Supplement 08 Sep 24 - The REAL housing problem
09/08/2024
Supplement 08 Sep 24 - The REAL housing problem
****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX**** This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup: Real-time market performance and insights The follow up on the REAL housing situation - looking backwards, and in real time Halifax's house prices as they accept defeat in their bearish predictions, as quietly as possible The PMIs for August - good news overall The BBA rate - reversion, and the lowest print for a while (which is still one that takes the breath - and the profit - away) A solid week for the gilts - for the borrowers….. And then...... Following on from last week, a deeper dive into the source data for housing in England, the real number of rental units in the private sector, and where the TRUE root cause of the problem lies - not just in the PRS, but in English housing in general. What you know at the end is - even if there is to be a fix to the mix of problems, we will be Keeping Calm and Carrying On - Don’t fear Kier Enjoy
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Supplement 01 Sep 24 - Back 2 Skool
09/01/2024
Supplement 01 Sep 24 - Back 2 Skool
****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX**** This week in the agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup: Real-time market performance and insights The race to sell everything before October 30th is catching on - 2024's pandemic, some might say (or more accurately epidemic) Nationwide's house prices and deeper dive into energy performance and the impact on prices The money supply and mortgage completions - both on the rise Retail sales from the CBI And then...... Hamptons International's recent report into the pace at which BTL landlords are exiting, or NOT buying - more importantly, in their view. The figures are incredible. I blend that in with some TwentyCi data on London, and the other regions - telling the same story with more clarity on the figures - and some shocking home truths about availability of rental units. I finish with a look at the ONS data which always drops without commentary around housing starts - and just how far we are off the Valhalla targets set by Angela Rayner, but also, how it can't be any worse than it already is (pending a major supply shock to capital, labour, or investment......) What you know at the end is - even if Starmer speaks with all the positivity of a walnut whip, we will be Keeping Calm and Carrying On (and not leaving the country, as is currently the leading option on a LinkedIn poll I've been running regarding the outcome of the budget on October 30th!) Enjoy Property Business Workshop tickets: http://bit.ly/pbwfour
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Supplement 25 Aug 24 - The Open Letter
08/31/2024
Supplement 25 Aug 24 - The Open Letter
***PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX*** **EXTRA EFFORT TO REACT COMMENT AND SHARE THIS WEEK PLEASE** This week contains a draft for an Open Letter to Matthew Pennycook, MP - new Minister of State for housing (in case you missed it). The Private Rental Sector needs to engage and be part of the solution - it's as simple as that - and dialogue needs to be opened. PLEASE share, tag anyone you know who will be interested, send to your local MP, and similar. Alongside that: Analysis of the Zoopla rental market report, which talks of cooling "new" rents in what will be welcome relief for everyone - an unsustainable bulldozer isn't what anyone wants. The real-time market fueled by Christopher Watkin and his stats as usual Consumption, growth and retail sales The ONS price report (June) and rent report (July) dissected which tell a different (or lagging, more accurately) story compared to the Zoopla figures The PMIs as the laggards still struggle to see that UK growth this year is nearly-nailed-on to be 1.5%-2%, the average forecaster is still predicting +1.1% even though we are +1.3% in just the first half of the year......weak. Enjoy - and above all - Keep Calm and Carry On! Make sure you don't miss an episode, subscribe to our YouTube Channels and listen on the go to the Propenomix Podcast. We talk property, finance and economics to keep you in the mix! Subscribe to the Propenomix YouTube Channel 🟢 Subscribe to the Propenomix Podcast 🟣 Read the Sunday Supplement from Adam Lawrence every week on the link below 🔵
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