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Perspectives: Episode 106 – The US election special

'Perspectives' by Escala

Release Date: 10/28/2024

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In this episode of Perspectives, Escala Chief Investment Officer, Tracey McNaughton, discusses the seismic shift in German defence spending, why Greek banks are looking attractive and why the team are no longer happy to be overweight US equities. (1:10) Tracey for decades, Germany has been the poster child of fiscal conservatism in Europe. The country’s approach was shaped by its post-WWII economic memory, where inflation and debt were deeply stigmatized. The past few weeks has seen a seismic shift in that view. (1:55) It was a historic shift in Germany's fiscal policy. (2:49) Still, it...

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This week Escala Partners CIO, Tracey McNaughton, discusses the upcoming US presidential election, why the polls are often wrong, the bi-partisan support for nuclear energy, and why the bond and equity markets disagree on what a Trump presidency could mean.

(0:57) Tracey, we are devoting this entire podcast to the US election given its importance. It’s been quite a journey so far – two assassination attempts, the last minute withdrawal of Biden, the late entry by Harris. So far though, neither candidate has been able to land a knockout punch.

(2:54) What are your thoughts on the outcome on November 5? What are the polls saying?

(6:26) Why are the polls so often poor predictors of the outcome?

(8:20) We have had quite a bit of volatility recently in markets. How are investors positioned for the election?

(9:42) The betting market you are referring to there I take it is Polymarket?

(12:04) On the issue of energy, the topic of nuclear power has come up again recently.

(13:37) Given its importance but also controversy, how do each of the presidential candidates stand on nuclear?

(14:58) Another issue is trade restrictions. You have talked in the past about the Biden Administration being more America first than any other administration before it. Will Harris continue that legacy?