Perspectives: Episode 106 – The US election special
Release Date: 10/28/2024
Perspectives: In Conversation with Property Specialists Greg Hyland and Hugh MacDonald from CBRE
'Perspectives' by Escala
In this episode, Escala Investment Analyst Stephen Dickinson talks to Greg Hyland (Head of Capital Markets, Asia Pacific) and Hugh MacDonald (Head of Capital Advisors, Asia Pacific) from CBRE. Greg and Hugh discuss how CBRE currently view the macro landscape and the impacts on the commercial real estate sector, some of the underlying structural drivers in the sector and the outlook ahead.
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Episode 118 – Adapting to Uncertainty: Tariffs, taxes, and tech’s changing map
'Perspectives' by Escala
In this episode of Perspectives, Escala Chief Investment Officer, Tracey McNaughton, shares what she is telling clients about the current level of uncertainty particularly in relation to tariffs, taxes and changes in technology. (1:17) What are you saying to clients about this level of uncertainty? (3:56) So given that, are you less worried that the trade war and Trumps tariff policies will be the thing that kills this market? (6:40) So uncertainty is just something we need to accept? (7:39) There’s this worry you sometimes hear that governments will “go broke in an AI world”...
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Episode 117 – In Trust We Must: From Wall Street to the Open Road
'Perspectives' by Escala
In this episode of Perspectives, Escala Chief Investment Officer, Tracey McNaughton, talks about the importance of trust – between governments, institutions, clients and their advisers and of course the rider and her bike. (1:18) So, Tracey, how do you define trust? (1:59) Can you think of a single system—financial, political, or social—that functions without trust? (2:35) Let’s go back to 2008. Where were you when Lehman collapsed? Did it hit you right away that this was a trust crisis? (3:46) And the stats reflect that. Only 27% of Americans said at the...
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Episode 116 – Are we past peak US exceptionalism?
'Perspectives' by Escala
In this episode of Perspectives, Escala Chief Investment Officer, Tracey McNaughton, considers the question are we past peak US exceptionalism? If so, where are the alternative safe havens for investors. (0:50) So, Tracey, you presented at a conference last week. Let’s start with topic of your session: Have we seen peak U.S. exceptionalism? (4:12) Just on the topic of ballooning government debt, the current fiscal proposal, the so called “Big beautiful budget bill” combines tax cuts with higher defence spending and no meaningful plan to reduce debt. It just ties in with investor...
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Perspectives: Episode 115 – Dispatches from the US
'Perspectives' by Escala
In this episode of Perspectives, Escala Chief Investment Officer, Tracey McNaughton, presents from New York where she discusses her observations from being on the ground. Following meetings with portfolio managers, economists, political strategists and financial advisers across four US states she discusses how President Trump’s trade war is being perceived. (0:52) Tracey, let’s start with some observations of what you have seen and heard on the ground. What stood out the most? (1:51) How about the cities? You spent time in Chicago and New York, right? (2:48) What are people saying about...
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Perspectives: Episode 114 – And just like that
'Perspectives' by Escala
In this episode of Perspectives, Escala Chief Investment Officer, Tracey McNaughton, discusses how this market correction differs to anything in the past; what the Escala fund managers are saying about it; and why the investment environment will be different when the fog finally lifts. (1:05) Tracey lets start with how you are viewing current events in markets? (3:19) You mentioned the similarities with covid in terms of uncertainty of what comes next. How do you compare the market reaction this time to previous sell offs? (5:47) You have just come off heat week where you talk to all of our...
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Perspectives: Episode 113 – "Liberation Day"
'Perspectives' by Escala
In this episode of Perspectives, Escala Chief Investment Officer, Tracey McNaughton, discusses the seismic shift in German defence spending, why Greek banks are looking attractive and why the team are no longer happy to be overweight US equities. (1:10) Tracey for decades, Germany has been the poster child of fiscal conservatism in Europe. The country’s approach was shaped by its post-WWII economic memory, where inflation and debt were deeply stigmatized. The past few weeks has seen a seismic shift in that view. (1:55) It was a historic shift in Germany's fiscal policy. (2:49) Still, it...
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Perspectives: Episode 113 – "Liberation Day"
'Perspectives' by Escala
In this episode of Perspectives, Escala Chief Investment Officer, Tracey McNaughton, discusses the seismic shift in German defence spending, why Greek banks are looking attractive and why the team are no longer happy to be overweight US equities. (1:10) Tracey for decades, Germany has been the poster child of fiscal conservatism in Europe. The country’s approach was shaped by its post-WWII economic memory, where inflation and debt were deeply stigmatized. The past few weeks has seen a seismic shift in that view. (1:55) It was a historic shift in Germany's fiscal policy. (2:49) Still, it...
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Perspectives: In Conversation with Alternatives and Private Markets specialist Sam Edwards from Longreach Alternatives
'Perspectives' by Escala
In this episode, Escala Partners Investment Analyst Stephen Dickinson talks to Sam Edwards, Partner from Longreach Alternatives. Sam discusses the royalties landscape, why a diversified approach to royalty investing is important and the benefits of PG3s multi-sector approach to royalties.
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Perspectives: Episode 112 – The Times They Are A-Changin'
'Perspectives' by Escala
In this episode of Perspectives, Escala Chief Investment Officer, Tracey McNaughton, discusses what a multi-polar world might look like, NATO’s fragile state and how the world trade map is being re-drawn. (1:30) It has been easy to get stuck in the weeds over the past 57 days, since President Trumps inauguration, so lets take a helicopter view and talk about US exceptionalism. For decades, the US has been the dominant force in global politics, economics, and military power. But today, we’re seeing cracks in that dominance. How do you see this playing out? (3:08) Interesting. And...
info_outlineThis week Escala Partners CIO, Tracey McNaughton, discusses the upcoming US presidential election, why the polls are often wrong, the bi-partisan support for nuclear energy, and why the bond and equity markets disagree on what a Trump presidency could mean.
(0:57) Tracey, we are devoting this entire podcast to the US election given its importance. It’s been quite a journey so far – two assassination attempts, the last minute withdrawal of Biden, the late entry by Harris. So far though, neither candidate has been able to land a knockout punch.
(2:54) What are your thoughts on the outcome on November 5? What are the polls saying?
(6:26) Why are the polls so often poor predictors of the outcome?
(8:20) We have had quite a bit of volatility recently in markets. How are investors positioned for the election?
(9:42) The betting market you are referring to there I take it is Polymarket?
(12:04) On the issue of energy, the topic of nuclear power has come up again recently.
(13:37) Given its importance but also controversy, how do each of the presidential candidates stand on nuclear?
(14:58) Another issue is trade restrictions. You have talked in the past about the Biden Administration being more America first than any other administration before it. Will Harris continue that legacy?