'Perspectives' by Escala Partners

‘Perspectives' is a bi-weekly investment podcast brought to you by Escala Partners. In a world cluttered with information, ‘Perspectives’ cuts through the noise to bring you insights and commentary on global financial markets, economics and geopolitical news and events. Hear our most up-to-date views straight from the Escala Investment Committee meeting room and learn how the CIO team incorporate macroeconomic views, central bank thinking and government policy into actionable investment ideas for our clients. As an economist and seasoned practitioner with both domestic and international investment experience, Escala Partners CIO, Tracey McNaughton, shares her views and observations to help you make sense of today’s investment landscape. Join Tracey, and others at Escala, as they discuss the big issues affecting your investment portfolio and interview industry-leading voices in wealth management. For more information visit: escalapartners.com.au

Perspectives: Episode 113 – "Liberation Day" 04/03/2025

Perspectives: Episode 113 – "Liberation Day" In this episode of Perspectives, Escala Chief Investment Officer, Tracey McNaughton, discusses the seismic shift in German defence spending, why Greek banks are looking attractive and why the team are no longer happy to be overweight US equities. (1:10) Tracey for decades, Germany has been the poster child of fiscal conservatism in Europe. The country’s approach was shaped by its post-WWII economic memory, where inflation and debt were deeply stigmatized. The past few weeks has seen a seismic shift in that view. (1:55) It was a historic shift in Germany's fiscal policy. (2:49) Still, it means some significant government spending in Germany. What does it say about NATO? (3:51) So is this another cold War? (4:27) The Australian Government brought down its budget last week. Did defence spending get a boost? (5:21) Let’s turn to trade policy—specifically tariffs. Today is Liberation Day – the day the Trump administration is expected to announce the most aggressive pivot in U.S. trade policy in decades. There’s been a lot of headline noise, but break it down for us: how are U.S. companies actually being affected on the ground? (6:15) That’s massive. What are companies doing in response? (7:49) So even “Made in America” isn’t immune? The idea of a 100% "Made in America" car does not exist. (9:19) What about everyday consumer brands? (10:07) So inflation is coming back through the trade channel? (10:30) What about smaller companies? How is all of this affecting them? (11:47) So what are the smart companies doing right now? (13:32) That’s a pretty tough landscape. Are there sectors that are less affected by these tariffs -maybe even thriving? (14:48) What are some other examples of more resilient sectors? (15:36) So it is the defensive sectors plus financials and real assets that will likely be the most insulated – at least in a relative sense. The countries whose equity indexes are highest in these sectors are the UK, Europe and Australia. (15:56) That brings us to an important decision that came out of our investment committee last week. You've announced the closure of your overweight position in US equities relative to Australian equities. Walk us through this decision? (16:48) That sounds logical. So what changed? (17:38) Tariff induced inflation pressures may prevent the US Federal Reserve cutting interest rates as much as expected. Further undermining the case for US equities. (17:58) Tracey it's clear we're navigating a period of substantial global change. What advice would give to investors right now? /episode/index/show/escalapartners/id/35984180

Perspectives: Episode 113 – "Liberation Day" 04/03/2025

Perspectives: Episode 113 – "Liberation Day" In this episode of Perspectives, Escala Chief Investment Officer, Tracey McNaughton, discusses the seismic shift in German defence spending, why Greek banks are looking attractive and why the team are no longer happy to be overweight US equities. (1:10) Tracey for decades, Germany has been the poster child of fiscal conservatism in Europe. The country’s approach was shaped by its post-WWII economic memory, where inflation and debt were deeply stigmatized. The past few weeks has seen a seismic shift in that view. (1:55) It was a historic shift in Germany's fiscal policy. (2:49) Still, it means some significant government spending in Germany. What does it say about NATO? (3:51) So is this another cold War? (4:27) The Australian Government bought down its budget last week. Did defence spending get a boost? (5:21) Let’s turn to trade policy—specifically tariffs. Today is Liberation Day – the day the Trump administration is expected to announce the most aggressive pivot in U.S. trade policy in decades. There’s been a lot of headline noise, but break it down for us: how are U.S. companies actually being affected on the ground? (6:15) That’s massive. What are companies doing in response? (7:49) So even “Made in America” isn’t immune? The idea of a 100% "Made in America" car does not exist. (9:19) What about everyday consumer brands? (10:09) So inflation is coming back through the trade channel? (10:30) What about smaller companies? How is all of this affecting them? (11:47) So what are the smart companies doing right now? (13:32) That’s a pretty tough landscape. Are there sectors that are less affected by these tariffs -maybe even thriving? (14:48) What are some other examples of more resilient sectors? (15:38) So it is the defensive sectors plus financials and real assets that will likely be the most insulated – at least in a relative sense. The countries whose equity indexes are highest in these sectors are the UK, Europe and Australia. (15:56) That brings us to an important decision that came out of our investment committee last week. You've announced the closure of your overweight position in US equities relative to Australian equities. Walk us through this decision? (16:48) That sounds logical. So what changed? (17:38) Tariff induced inflation pressures may prevent the US Federal Reserve cutting interest rates as much as expected. Further undermining the case for US equities. (17:58) Tracey it's clear we're navigating a period of substantial global change. What advice would give to investors right now? /episode/index/show/escalapartners/id/35984175

Perspectives: In Conversation with Alternatives and Private Markets specialist Sam Edwards from Longreach Alternatives 03/28/2025

Perspectives: Episode 112 – The Times They Are A-Changin' 03/20/2025

Perspectives: Episode 112 – The Times They Are A-Changin' In this episode of Perspectives, Escala Chief Investment Officer, Tracey McNaughton, discusses what a multi-polar world might look like, NATO’s fragile state and how the world trade map is being re-drawn. (1:30) It has been easy to get stuck in the weeds over the past 57 days, since President Trumps inauguration, so lets take a helicopter view and talk about US exceptionalism. For decades, the US has been the dominant force in global politics, economics, and military power. But today, we’re seeing cracks in that dominance. How do you see this playing out? (3:08) Interesting. And politically, are we seeing a decline in soft power? (4:05) So, does this mean the US has reached peak superpower status? (4:31) What does this multipolar world look like? (8:10) Okay, so we have these competing power centres. What does that mean for global stability and for investors in general? (10:44) So what’s your biggest takeaway about the multipolar world we’re entering? (11:35) Its truly fascinating. The shift from a unipolar to a multipolar world is one of the biggest geopolitical changes of our time, and it’s happening faster than most people realize. (11:46) That brings us to NATO. The alliance that defined the Cold War and kept the West united for so long through so many challenging times - could we really be seeing its end? Gerard Minack, our Independent Investment Committee member said it is not dead yet but it is on life support. (12:50) But hasn’t NATO expanded recently? Finland and Sweden are joining—doesn’t that strengthen the alliance? (13:31) So, if NATO were to dissolve or become irrelevant, what would the world look like? What would take its place? (14:51) Alright, let’s shift our focus to something that affects not just governments and corporations but everyday people - the ongoing tariff and trade war. This conflict is now reshaping global supply chains in profound ways. We’ve seen waves of tariffs, retaliatory measures, and efforts to decouple economies. How is this reshaping global trade, and what does it mean for businesses and consumers? (17:20) Okay, so tariffs didn’t quite work as planned. But how did they affect global supply chains? (18:27) With this new reality taking shape, who are the winners and losers? /episode/index/show/escalapartners/id/35786010