Tariffs, Trade Wars, and the Credit Risk Reckoning

Hear from Michael Crumpler, CEO, Credit Benchmark and Jon Hilsenrath, former Wall St. Journal senior writer and founder of Serpa Pinto Advisory, as we examine early warning signs, strategic responses, and innovative risk management approaches needed in today's volatile trade environment.

This podcast explores the intersection of trade policy and credit risk, offering insights for senior risk managers navigating an increasingly complex global landscape:

• Rising Credit Risk: How tariffs are reshaping the credit risk landscape across key global sectors and what early warning signs risk officers should be tracking.
• Capital Allocation Strategies: How CROs and portfolio managers should reframe risk appetites given significant credit deterioration in vulnerable sectors.
• Data-Driven Decision Making: The role of alternative data and credit consensus insights in scenario planning and stress testing for portfolios exposed to supply chain shocks and regulatory retaliation.
• Central Bank Response: Potential actions the Fed and ECB may take given impacts of tariffs on inflation, Treasury yields, and economic uncertainty.

Links from today’s discussion: Global Credit Risk Rising as Trade War Starts

 

Speaker Bios

Michael Crumpler, CEO, Credit Benchmark

Michael was appointed CEO of Credit Benchmark in June 2023 after serving in several key executive roles including most recently as Chief Operating Officer and Head of Risk. He is also a member of the Executive Committee.

Prior to joining Credit Benchmark in 2016, Michael worked at Goldman Sachs in the Credit Risk Management & Advisory group covering a diverse portfolio of entities across the natural resources and public finance sectors. Before Goldman, Michael spent over 10 years in other credit risk and banking roles at Barclays, Dexia and Moody’s Investors Service focused primarily on energy, infrastructure and U.S. public finance.

Michael holds a Master of International Affairs from Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs and a Bachelor of English Literature from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.

 

Jon Hilsenrath, Former Wall St. Journal Senior Writer and Editor

Author and 26-year veteran of The Wall Street Journal. Former chief economics correspondent, economics editor, markets editor and senior writer, based in New York, Hong Kong & Washington D.C. Pulitzer Prize finalist in 2014 for coverage of the Federal Reserve; part of WSJ team that was Pulitzer finalist in 2009 for coverage of financial crisis; contributed on-the-scene reporting to the WSJ’s Sept. 11 coverage which won 2002 Pulitzer. Author of “Yellen,” a biography of the Treasury Secretary and former Federal Reserve Chairwoman, book described by The Economist magazine as "elegant and erudite."

Wilson Center Fellow, 2021. Cum laude graduate of Duke University, Knight-Bagehot Fellow at Columbia University with MBA and M.A. Hong Kong University of Science and Technology alum. Partner of Duke economics department as Visiting Fellow.

 

Moderator

Katherine Wolicki, Global Head of Engagement and Outreach, GARP Benchmarking Initiative (GBI)

Katherine is the Global Head of Engagement and Outreach for GARP Benchmarking Initiative (GBI).  GBI plays a key role in supporting evidence-based policymaking through the provision of industry benchmarking studies.  Prior to this she was with HSBC for 12 years where she led the Global Financial and Model Risk Regulatory Policy and Engagement team for Risk. The team was responsible for the external regulatory interface for the Traded Risk, Treasury Risk Management and Global Risk Analytics function.  This included the provision of guidance on regulatory risk matters, regulatory policy interpretation and industry engagement.   Prior to this she was based in Brussels as a Public Affairs consultant specialising in financial services regulation.  Katie has an MA in International Economic Relations from American University and a Maîtrise in European and International Law from the University of La Reunion. She is a fluent French speaker and an avid hiker and mountaineer.  

 

About Credit Benchmark

Credit Benchmark is a leading provider of credit risk data and analytics. The company aggregates and anonymizes contributed risk data from over 40 global financial institutions, producing unique obligor-level Credit Consensus Ratings and other key credit metrics. Covering over 110,000 legal entities, 90% of which are not publicly rated—Credit Benchmark’s insights are trusted by major financial institutions worldwide to enhance their internal credit risk analysis and gain accurate risk perspectives.