Buying New v Buying Established Webinar Replay
Hotspotting
Everyone seeking real estate in desirable locations has the same complaint: the lack of stock. Home buyers, investors, buyers’ agents and selling agents are all being frustrated by the shortage of listings of properties for sale – particularly quality options. Leading national buyers’ agency Adviseable says a partial solution for buyers is to consider building from scratch rather than buying an established property. The tactic has many advantages – and one or two problems as well. Alex Dutt of Adviseable says deciding whether to buy an established property or to go down the new...
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Think Twice: Negative Gearing Myths
Hotspotting
In my experience, most people who have a loud view about scrapping negative gearing are people who can’t explain what it is, how it works, why it’s bad and how ending it would solve all the problems in the housing industry. Mostly, what’s in play with this issue is THE POLITICS OF ENVY – that nagging feeling some people have, that others are doing better than they are, or are receiving benefits that they are not, and therefore need to be squashed. As a famous Indian guru once observed, some people try to be tall by cutting off the heads of others. Contrast that with the views that are...
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Rising Rents, Real Reason
Hotspotting
Politicians and journalists love to scapegoat and demonise, particularly with issues impacting housing markets – with property investors always a popular target. Australia’s love of scapegoating is one of the reasons the nation seldom resolves any of the key issues it faces. Politicians hold press conferences, they stage inquiries, they bring on royal commissions, they make announcements – but the recurring theme is looking for someone to blame and to vilify – preferably someone other than themselves. In real estate, investors and related issues like negative gearing are blamed for all...
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Rental Crisis Deepens
Hotspotting
How long could we reasonably expect governments to take, to sort out a problem like the rental shortage? I ask the question because we have had the problem of a shortage of options for tenants in Australia – and the consequent steep rises in rents - for a very long time. And it keeps getting worse, not better. The latest data from SQM Research shows that, nationally, the vacancy rate got a little worse last month, dropping from 1.3% in August to 1.2% in September. Three of our capital cities have vacancies well below 1%. And in six of the eight capital cities, vacancies stayed the same...
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Stop the Distraction: Negative Gearing Isn’t the Real Issue
Hotspotting
There is one thing that Australian politicians are really good at – possibly the only thing - and that is diverting attention from the real issues and scapegoating others for the problems that they, the politicians, have caused. Right now, the core issues impacting Australian households include the housing shortage, the high cost of creating desperately needed new homes, the chronic rental shortage and the reality that rents keep on rising. It’s noteworthy that the recent AGM of the Commonwealth Bank reported that they have had to provide emergency payment arrangements to 132,000 customers...
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Albo's Housing Hypocrisy
Hotspotting
Australia is struggling with a number of crisis situations – a cost-of-living crisis, a housing affordability crisis and a rental shortage crisis. Our beloved Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has declared on many occasions how much he cares about the plight of ordinary Australians in dealing with these issues. But, as the old saying goes, actions speak louder than words – and that is particularly relevant to our elected representatives who love to stand before the media cameras and declare their concern for the people but fail to match their words with appropriate actions. So, let’s look...
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Why Affordable Outshines Prime in Real Estate
Hotspotting
Residential real estate abounds with fallacies and misconceptions, mostly created by dishonest politicians, biased journalists and economists who don’t understand property. One of the biggest is the one that claims that so-called prime property shows the best capital growth. A year ago I attended a national conference for real estate professionals at which a keynote speaker expressed the view that you had to buy “prime” to get good capital growth – and indeed proclaimed that if you couldn’t buy prestige property you shouldn’t buy at all – or at least wait until you could afford...
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Politicians Are Making Aussie Homes Unaffordable—Here’s How
Hotspotting
There’s endless commentary about housing affordability in Australia but very little awareness that the fundamental issue is the high cost of creating new homes – and that our politicians are the cause of the problem. The value of dwellings across the nation is underpinned by the cost in building new ones – and, in Australia, that cost is incredibly, ridiculously high. And it’s high because of the policies of our elected representatives, at all levels of government, but particularly state government politicians. Right now, after massive increases in building costs in recent years, you...
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Is Population Growth Misleading for Property Investors?
Hotspotting
How relevant is population growth data for people choosing where to buy? According to the theories espoused by some, the best places to buy are the ones with the highest population growth. But the evidence suggests otherwise. For example, take a look at the latest data on population growth across Australia, published by the ABS recently. It shows that one of the states with the highest population growth has been one of the worst performers recently on price growth, while one of the states with the lowest population growth has been one of Australia’s best performers on price growth. For the...
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Home Approvals Drop as Australia Faces Housing Shortage
Hotspotting
The latest Australian Bureau of Statistics data has recorded a decline in the number of dwelling approvals across the country. Total dwelling approvals saw a drop of 6.1 per cent in the month of August, at a time when Australia needs to be building a lot more homes. According to ABS head of construction statistics, Daniel Rossi, private dwellings excluding houses were the main contributor to the decline – in other words, there has been a big decrease in approvals for attached dwellings like units and townhouses. This has resulted in a 16.5 per cent fall in approvals for those types of...
info_outlineOne of the greatest misconceptions in the housing market is that property investors are the people who cause property prices to rise.
The evidence confirms that this is a major piece of misinformation but some sections of politics and news media love to perpetuate this fiction.
And, as an extension, use it as justification for advocating the end to negative gearing.
Some people appear to believe that eliminating negative gearing tax benefits will fix all the problems in the property market: rising prices, housing affordability generally, the shortage of new homes, the rental crisis, pretty much everything.
And, like so much of the debate about housing issues, it’s patently false and nothing more than an expression of the politics of envy.
So let’s look at the reality of who has influence in our housing markets and in particular in causing prices to rise over time.
My view over time, supported by the research evidence, is that the largest and most powerful cohort in the residential real estate industry comprises home buyers other than first-home buyers – i.e. owner-occupiers buying their next home, whether up-grading or downsizing.
They are the largest group of buyers numerically, they have the greatest market share and they have the greatest borrowing capacity and ability to pay higher prices than any other group in the market – they’re older, have higher incomes, have equity in their existing homes, they’re aspirational and they have borrowing capacity, far more so than first-home buyers or the average investor.
The latest edition of the NAB Residential Property Survey tends to confirm that view.
The report states that buying activity in the established property market is, and I quote, “dominated by owner-occupiers net of FHBs” – which means home buyers other than first-home buyers.
The NAB report says they comprise 44% of buyers in the Australian housing market and comments: “These buyers account for the lion’s share of established home sales in all states.”
The next biggest buyer cohort is first-home buyers, who comprise 34% of buyers in the market.
Australian investors are just 18% of buyers and foreign investors around 4%.
So the people constantly blamed for prices rising and causing poor housing affordability, Australian property investors, have a market share of just 18%.
More than three-quarters of buyers out there in the market are home-buyers – and they have massive advantages over investor buyers.
They have lower interest rates, they have lower levels of stamp duty, they have lower council rates and lower rates of insurance, and they don’t have to pay land tax or capital gains tax.
If they’re first-home buyers they also receive government grants and other assistance measures, including stamp duty concessions.
The only advantage that property investors can access is negative gearing, which around half of property investors can use to reduce their tax.
The research shows that the typical property investor is young, on an income below $100,000 and restricted on what they can pay by their borrowing capacity, which is less than a home buyer on the same income because the investor has to pay higher interest rates and stamp duty.
What many politicians and journalists want us to believe is that a cohort which is just 18% of the buyers in the market and restricted in their borrowing capacity by numerous factors somehow overpowers the 78% of buyers who are owner-occupiers - and therefore, apparently single-handedly cause house prices to rise.
It simply isn’t so.
The myth of the advantaged and privileged property investor is the greatest lie in real estate.